Recently, a story popped up on my Twitter feed from fivethirtyeight.com with a bold headline:

Alabama the strongest team in college football history.

The way my brain initially processed that was FTE saying Alabama is the best team in the country this year. No wait, the best team, like ever?* Turns out this article was from almost a month ago but nonetheless that’s a really bold claim even in the midst of this era of Alabama dominance.

*Since the AP Poll began in 1936 which if we’re honest is an okay place to start. History is history of course but football earlier than that was almost a different game. Sorry, Knute.

I’m not an avid reader of FiveThirtyEight so I’m not entirely sure how their Elo ratings are put together but some brief research suggests it leans heavily on schedule strength and margin of victory. There’s probably a lot to quibble with that formula but I’m not too concerned as it ultimately gives me something to discuss right now.

Regarding 2016 Alabama being #1 (so far) their offense offers a major warning sign. They’re averaging 6.62 YPP which is fine (19th nationally) but a couple steps below elite. The 40 points per game is a Saban-era high but of course the defense scored about 94 touchdowns this year in support.

A dynamic dual-threat combined with this Alabama defense is frightening but Hurts is still a true freshman and, more or less, an average passer. Additionally, the Tide don’t have a 1,000 yard rusher (relying heavily on Hurts wheels) and for a team in consideration for best ever they don’t have an in-form Amari Cooper-type at receiver or Heisman-level running back.

I’d still bet on them winning the title but how much do you want to bet over their next 2 games there will be some really ugly football on offense?

Looking over the list there has to be some sort of recency bias as 21 out of the 30 teams are from the 1990’s to present. So much so that I decided to see which National Champions in that frame are NOT in the Top 30:

1990: Colorado/Georgia Tech
1991: Miami/Washington
1994: Nebraska
1998: Tennessee
2000: Oklahoma
2002: Ohio State
2003: LSU
2005: Texas
2006: Florida
2007: LSU
2009: Alabama
2010: Auburn
2013: Florida State

Not the best advertisement for the 2000’s dominance from the SEC, I must say. It feels like for the most part most of the these teams weren’t in the “best ever” conversation with notable exceptions like ’05 Texas and ’13 Florida State. That Longhorns team basically crushed everyone except a tough road game at Ohio State and the classic Rose Bowl victory over USC in perhaps the greatest college game the world has ever witnessed. The Seminoles also rolled through their entire schedule until the title game which was close.

Conversely, how about the teams in the Top 30 that made the list without a championship?

1988: Miami (5th)
1973: Oklahoma (6th)
2014: Oregon (10th)
2005: USC (14th)
2002: Miami (16th)
2013: Alabama (17th)
2009: Florida (21st)
1973: Alabama (24th)
2011: LSU (25th)
1996: Nebraska (26th)
1983: Nebraska (28th)
1992: Miami (29th)

Obviously, this list highlights the complete absence of any Notre Dame team which on its face seems ridiculous. Eight national championships within the AP Poll time frame and not a single team in the all-time Top 30?

Oh, but the ’88 Miami team that Notre Dame beat on its way to the school’s last title is an astonishing 5th overall! They did wreck a great Florida State team but also slipped past tough games against ranked Michigan and Arkansas teams. I’m not sure two close wins, two great wins, and a loss equals the 5th best team ever. Or, how Notre Dame’s ’88 team isn’t somewhere in the vicinity of the Canes.

If that’s not bad enough TWO teams from 1973 make the list. The champion that year: Undefeated Notre Dame. The Irish have a pair of unbeaten national championship teams that each notched a win over someone on this Top 30 list but neither Notre Dame champs is included in said list.

A 2-loss Oregon team on this list is just silly let alone in the Top 10. True, they had 4 wins over teams that won 10+ games and a beautiful demolishing of Florida State in the playoff semi-finals. I just can’t get over 2 losses, with a borderline blowout defeat in the title game. It’s just so odd to see 3 teams with 2 losses on here led by Nick Saban, Tom Osborne, and Mark Helfrich. That sticks out like a sore thumb.

Back to the entire Top 30 there are no teams from the 1930’s, one team from the 40’s, no teams from the 50’s, and no teams from the 60’s. Whatever this system used it must not like multiple undefeated champions from a bygone era. That might explain why there are no 1946, ’47, or ’49 Frank Leahy teams included. That’s the only explanation I’ve got for that.

Bud Wilkinson at Oklahoma won 47 straight games and couldn’t get one damn team on this list.

One of the more intriguing rankings is 2001 Miami all the way down at #27 overall. They’re regularly in the conversation as the best team ever. I don’t really have a good explanation for this either, except to say that looking back they could’ve been statistically more dominant and we’ve tended to let their NFL Draft talent and pro careers cloud our memory of this team as time has rolled forward.

Four programs make up 19 teams on this list: Alabama, Nebraska, Oklahoma, and Miami. They each also have at least one team in the Top 5 best ever. Add in Florida and that’s 22 out of 30 from just 5 programs.