At long last, Senior Day. A bit of shine has come off this matchup considering BC’s unresolved QB situation and all-around horrid season. Nonetheless, the Eagles are coming off a shocking upset win over #16 NC State and a team that looked dead and buried three weeks ago has a faint pulse. Can Marcus Freeman carry on Brian Kelly’s tradition of beating Boston College without any unnecessary drama?
Boston College (+21) at #18 Notre Dame
Notre Dame Stadium
South Bend, Indiana
Date: Saturday, November 19, 2022
Time: 2:30 PM ET
TV: NBC
| Advanced Stats | Irish | Eagles |
| FEI Offense | 47th | 105th |
| F+/- Offense | 52nd | 103rd |
| FEI Defense | 26th | 63rd |
| F+/- Defense | 30th | 78th |
| FEI Overall | 23rd | 95th |
| F+/- Overall | 29th | 97th |
Offense
The last time these two teams met Ian Book out-played his former backup in front of dozens (dozens!) of people in a near-empty Alumni Stadium. Fast forward two years and Phil Jurkovec is still at Boston College but as I am writing this he is questionable for Saturday. It’s been a rocky road for Jurkovec since a solid 2020 season when he garnered some NFL hype. Since then, he missed half of last season with injuries and struggled mightily this year before a concussion put him on the bench for the past two and a half games. Jeff Hafley has said that Jurkovec will start if he’s healthy so TBD on this front.
Meanwhile, freshman Emmett Moorehead has been a small revelation since taking over. After a poor outing in relief of Jurkovec against UConn, Moorehead led the Eagles to its best passing performance of the year against Duke before mounting a second half comeback victory in Raleigh last weekend. Moorehead doesn’t have Jurkovec’s wheels in the run game but has been far more efficient in distributing the ball to BC’s playmakers. Most importantly, he gets the ball out quickly which is vital given my next point.
The biggest weakness for BC’s offense is their line which is truly heinous at football. The Eagles lost all five starters from last year even before a rash of injuries hit the unit. Against Wake Forest earlier this season BC was forced to start two converted defensive linemen and a preferred walk-on with predictable results (2.4 ypc). Lead running back Pat Garwo III has 296 yards rushing at 3.0 yards per carry which is… bad. I’ll talk more about this more in a bit but simply put: this is one of the worst offensive lines I can ever remember Notre Dame facing and Foskey better get that sack record.
On the other hand, WR Zay Flowers is decidedly not bad at football. He’s actually quite good, so good he turned down multiple NIL offers from other schools trying to poach him in the offseason. Flowers is the do-everything engine for BC’s offense with 957 yards from scrimmage this season. The Irish secondary will have to keep a close watch on the slippery Flowers who gets his yards no matter who is starting at QB.
Defense
The advanced stats have pegged the Eagles as a below-average defense and I concur. There is talent here as both Safety Jaiden Woodbey and LB Bryce Steele are former four stars on 247. Woodbey is a Florida State transfer who is especially dangerous and having a good season on the backend. Boston College’s defensive line has some decent stats, ranking in the top-35 in most categories including 12th in stopping the run on passing downs. That will be extra important for Notre Dame considering Tommy Rees has been leaning on the run game on 3rd and long.
Jeff Hafley and Defensive Coordinator Tem Lukabu have changed BC’s longtime 4-3 defensive scheme to a 4-2-5 in the last three years. Hafley cut his teeth in the NFL and at Ohio State as a Nickel package specialist but this might be a game where he rolls with more linebackers to deal with the Irish running game. We will see if Navy’s blitz-happy approach against Drew Pyne is something BC wants to emulate. Other than that, not much else to say here! There’s no Harold Landry or Luke Kuechly walking through that door.
Three Questions
Can the defensive line feast rather than play with its food?
Here are BC’s line stat rankings courtesy of Football Outsiders:
Average Line Yards Gained: 131st (dead last)
Standard Downs Line Yards: 129th
Passing Downs Line Yards: 131st (dead last)
Opportunity Rate: 119th
Power Success Rate: 104th
Stuff Rate: 131st (dead last)
Sack Rate: 116th
There’s not much more to say other than a literal cadaver could probably sack the QB against Boston College. The Irish have such an overwhelming advantage here that I will be shocked and horrified if BC ends the game with more than 100 yards rushing. The guys just need to do their jobs.
Will this team finally do what they’re supposed to do against poor competition?
It’s been a weird and frustrating year. The Irish destroyed Clemson without a passing game, hammered a resurgent UNC in Chapel Hill, and probably should have beaten Ohio State in Columbus if the offensive line weren’t non-existent. I don’t need to go over the Marshall and Stanford losses which have been scrutinized to death at this point. With another big game on deck in LA, Marcus Freeman’s team has a chance to really lay the wood on a struggling program yet has failed to do so in multiple spots this year.
Of course, so much of that depends on the play of Drew Pyne. He has been the reason ND has beaten teams (UNC, BYU) and also the limiting factor in many of these games. The second half against Navy last week was such a catastrophe that I hope he can recover mentally. BC isn’t good but all it takes is one mistake for the Eagles to make this a game when they have no business competing in South Bend.
How will the South Bend transplants play?
Million dollar question here. Jurkovec’s status has been up in the air and if I’m Jeff Hafley I would continue to roll with Moorehead at QB. Their passing game is clearly better with the freshman calling the shots and passing is the only thing BC can do with their offensive line. But if Jurkovec goes the Irish will have to be disciplined in the backend. Jurkovec has been good at wriggling out of pressure and firing the ball downfield
Whoever starts at QB will be throwing to TE George Tackas who has had a nice season for Boston College. The big-bodied Notre Dame transfer has caught 24 passes for 248 yards and a touchdown, not Michael Mayer numbers but another solid showing by a former member of Tight End U. If Zay Flowers is blanketed Tackas will be getting a lot of targets tomorrow.
Conclusion
Here we are again, Notre Dame coming into a matchup against a seemingly moribund team. A huge game at USC looms but first Marcus Freeman has to keep an eight-game winning streak against Boston College alive. The Eagles made a living in the 2000s beating the Irish as underdogs before Brian Kelly put an immediate halt to that trend. However, this 2022 team has been so erratic that I worry about the Irish falling back into bad habits and making this game harder than it needs to be.
Luckily, last week might have provided the perfect antidote for a potential trap game. If Navy scaring the bejesus out of the Irish didn’t make the team perk up a bit then Boston College’s victory against NC State should’ve done the trick. The message is clear: the Eagles can absolutely win this game if ND plays like garbage again. It’s week 11 and still quite disconcerting that Notre Dame is capable of laying such an egg at home. Yet this BC team has just been so poor that I can’t in good conscience pick them to keep the game that close. Their offensive line is just sooooooooooooo bad. I think they’ll cover the spread, but that’s it.
Don’t sell BC short, they’re always annoying.
Lots of ingredients for a trap game here: Senior Day, ND’s demonstrated vulnerability against both dropping 8 and rushing 8 (and basically anything Tommy and Drew weren’t expecting), BC with nothing to lose and ND looking ahead to SC, probably a cold and disinterested crowd. Prepare for Jurkovec and whatever relatives he has in the stands to dominate NBC’s camera time.
BUT!
BC is an ACC team, and ACC teams suck. We already clobbered their three allegedly good teams. I think this one is a snoozefest that’s over early in the third quarter, with an irritating but ineffective comeback attempt by BC. Irish 33-13.
Anyone talking about Kelly’s ability to beat BC without unnecessary drama clearly did not watch the 2015 game.
I remember that game being annoying in that I didn’t think ND would ever lose even though we kept turning the ball over in the redzone. It was 19-3 and ND outgained BC 447-302 but BVG’s defense made it closer than it needed to be at the end.
name a better combo than that 2015 team and redzone turnovers
sigh
that could’ve been a special year
2011 team and fumbling at the one-yard line?
2022 team and allowing RZ TDs.
i’ve managed to memory hole most of that thankfully! (byproduct of being 9 when the season happened lol)
i’d do despicable things for an alternate universe where ND hired an actual DC after Diaco
My wife and I were at the 1993 game at Notre Dame where Boston College won 41-39 with a field goal as time expired. It taught me to always cautiously respect BC.
The whole “play up or down to the level of competition” thing is troubling since BC is very bad. But also with a little life left in them from the new QB as NC State found out.
I guess you never really know with this Notre Dame team. I’m going to say a 28-17 win but level of confidence is low on just what kind of game it could be.
Is there a more petulant and annoying 2 game stretch than Navy and BC? lol
BC is really really really bad and it would probably work in our favor if Jurk (somehow, he’s apparently really injured) plays because their aforementioned backup.
I think Foskey and co. have a big day against their awful OL while the offense puts enough points up against their meh defense to make this one comfortable.
i do wonder at what point BC gets tired of tackling Estime/Diggs/Tyree in all the ACC games so far the opponent has pretty visibly quit
i’ll say halfway through the 3rd
ND 27
BC 3
I read a shocking stat that we are currently tied or like 1 game away from the ND record of consecutive 30 pt games (thank you punt block!).
This offense has been so bad, I just can’t imagine a world in which we set or tie that record. Under 30 pts for sure. I’m sticking with my last week prediction of shutout by the defense (Foskey and the Ademilolas deserve it!). At least one missed FG. No punt block, but between the wind and the punt pressure, BC has one punt go under 30 yds. Let’s go with 20-0.
I hope you’re right about the shutout but I have nightmares of Flowers catching 40-yard wounded ducks from Jurkovec while the NBC booth creams its jeans.
Yeah, especially with us always letting up big plays and them getting guaranteed TDs if they cross the 20. It would be pretty surprising to actually get a shutout. But, I’m usually far from a flowers and sunshine guy, so maybe if I predict it, it will like triple reverse jinx it.
And if it’s as windy as people are saying, maybe they have serious trouble passing the ball, which would absolutely doom them. This is likely the only real chance for a shut out and it would have to be JPW level weather.
Weather is going to be very rough I think. It’s miserable in Chicago right now, wind chill in the teens. You can usually count on South Bend to be colder and windier.
the investigation into BC that reveals that they’ve been using waterlogged nerf footballs the last few years will be 30for30 worthy
adding onto that
ND has scored 35 in 4 straight games for the 10th time ever (most recently 2019 and 2006)
ND has only done so in 5 straight games once in 1943
which is pretty neat
That was the stat! 1 game away from tying consecutive 35+ games. So I guess I only need to predict under 35, which seems pretty easy. Although with them needing to throw, Morrison lurking, and wind, could be 1-2 pick 6s.
Thanks for finding the exact stat I was vaguely remembering!
well there we go! lol
and no problem
random somewhat inconsequential stats
ND wins 27 to 24 with the game ending on an intentional grounding (and clock run off) forced by Foskey as he comes oh so close to breaking Tuck’s record at home on Senior Day.
Another game that was frustratingly close and makes us internet hot heads take to the keyboards for another 3-5 days questioning everything before a resounding victory next Saturday in LA. We then get to pontificate about a National Championship run in 2023 before an underwhelming bowl game victory has us questioning everything again.
Time feels like a flat circle.
This sounds about right.
10-3 with wins over Clemson and SC would very much surpass my expectations for this season so I’d take it in a heartbeat.
Definitely not calling the season a failure. I think it will have provided Freeman a lot of teaching points while still moving the needle in the right direction.
I would take 10-3 with the losses to Marshall and Stanford rather than 10-3 with losses to USC, Clemson,OSU
Imagine turning down hundreds of thousands of dollars to stay at Boston College
Sounds like the kid made a sound decision. Go read the link.
He said what most of us wish the kids we recruit would say: “a degree from this school will help me more than a degree from the other schools”.