Boston College wasn’t supposed to be good this season. Okay, maybe they aren’t good in the strictest sense but they certainly have surprised a little bit while currently sitting in the middle of the pack within the ACC and 8th best team in the league according to the latest SP+ rankings (the Eagles sit 52nd nationally).
Jeff Hafley was one of the more quiet under-the-radar hires this off-season after BC dismissed Steve Addazio following a thoroughly mediocre 7-year run in Chestnut Hill. His resume is solid for a young 41 year-old (he spent last year at Ohio State as the Co-DC and secondary coach and had been in the NFL coaching defensive backs since 2012) but pretty much everyone believed this would be a long multi-year rebuild that would need a lot of patience.
Typically, the Eagles are built around a strong running game and tough defense. This is not what the 2020 team has looked like at all.
Notre Dame (-13.5) at Boston College
Alumni Stadium
Chestnut Hill, Massachusetts
Date: Saturday, November 14, 2020
Time: 3:30 PM ET
TV: ABC
Superstar running back A.J. Dillon left behind 4,382 yards and 40 touchdowns in his career before being a 2nd round pick by the Packers this past spring. So far this season, the Eagles’ running game has fallen off a cliff in his absence. The defense wasn’t good last year and a bright spot is that it has improved under Hafley’s tutelage but not enough to overcome a couple of close losses so far in 2020.
Boston College’s Offense
Boston College brought in Frank Cignetti as their new OC whom we last saw face Notre Dame back in the Bill Stull/Tino Sunseri QB era at Pittsburgh (2009-10). He’d been in the NFL since 2012 and as you’d expect has the Eagles much more aligned in a pro-style modern passing game system.
This was supposed to be one of the best offensive line units in the ACC but to date they’ve severely underachieved and haven’t seemed comfortable in their new scheme.
They moved senior Zion Johnson from left guard to left tackle, senior Ben Petrula from right tackle to right guard, and redshirt sophomore Tyler Vrabel from left tackle to right tackle in an off-season reshuffle. Clearly, the transition from a run-heavy offense to an open passing attack has them out of sorts–to date the Eagles are allowing 2.75 sacks per game (116th nationally) and they’re averaging just 104.25 rushing yards per game (110th nationally) at just over 3.06 yards per carry (111th nationally).
BC will wear their “red bandana” uniforms on Saturday.
Even with sacks removed it’s been pretty bleak on the ground. The backfield duo of David Bailey and Travis Levy have combined for 645 yards across 8 games at 3.6 per rush and just 4 touchdowns (all from Bailey).
Have you heard Notre Dame transfer Phil Jurkovec is starting at quarterback for BC?
In a sneaky good ACC quarterback field, Jurkovec is currently 7th in passer rating (behind Lawrence, Howell, Cunningham, King, Book, and Hartman) and has moments where he’s carried the Eagles offense for series at a time. After a flurry of passing attempts early in the season (40.6 attempts per game through their first 5 games) Jurkovec has dialed it back to just 24.6 attempts per game as BC has attempted to find their footing on the ground again.
Jurkovec doesn’t seem as nimble as he did early in his career at Notre Dame but he’s a threat to run–and more importantly–escape the pocket to buy time for a throw down field. From what I’ve seen, Jurkovec must lead the country in almost being tackled only to get a throw off after shrugging off contact. I’m sure there will be a lot of focus this week in practice for Notre Dame to wrap up when they get near their former teammate.
The bulk of the passing game is going towards two players: Wideout Zay Flowers and tight end Hunter Long. The latter is 4th in the ACC in receptions while Flowers is 6th overall. Flowers isn’t very big (5’11” 178 lbs) but he’s super explosive (15.7 yards per catch) and is a threat to score from anywhere on the field. Long is 11th nationally catches and 11 receptions above the 2nd best tight end in the country.
This could’ve been a ridiculous passing offense if 5th-year senior Kobay White didn’t hurt his ACL and have to miss the season. He has 96 receptions and 1,409 yards to his name with more big play ability that the Eagles could be using. They did add the former No. 30 overall player in the 2018 class with Ohio State transfer Jaelen Gill but outside of the Virginia Tech game (6 receptions for 104 yards) his impact has been limited.
Boston College’s Defense
Hafley dipped back into the NFL to bring in new defensive coordinator Tem Lukabu who was the Cincinnati Bengals’ linebacker coach in 2019 and had no prior coordinator experience before arriving in Chestnut Hill. He took over a defense that was quite woeful in 2019 finishing 101st in scoring, 100th in rushing defense, and 110th in yards per play allowed.
BC brought in help this off-season including Buffalo transfer DT Chibueze Onwuka, Cal transfer DT Luc Bequette, and Maine transfer DE Max Roberts. The latter, while not technically starting, is leading the team with 4.5 sacks.
They’ve started 7 different defensive backs and are still susceptible to giving up big passing plays (9 of at least 30 yards in 8 games) but the strength of the defense is without a doubt the linebackers. Led by 5th-year senior Max Richardson at middle linebacker who is 5 tackles away from 300 in his career and is in his second straight season of leading the Eagles in tackles for loss.
Boston College also has linebacker Isaiah McDuffie back after he missed the bulk of 2019 due to injury. The pride of Buffalo, New York’s Bennett High School, he’s having a terrific 2020 with 71 tackles, 6.5 tackles for loss, 3 sacks, and 1 interception.
Heading into the weekend, BC has improved upon their 110th rated SP+ defense from last year and currently sit at a much more respectable 69th nationally.
Prediction
For all the hubbub about Phil Jurkovec and his modest success in 2020 the numbers basically tell us this story about Boston College: They are about the same team on offense as last year, except they are better at passing instead of running, and their defense has improved markedly.
Of course, every Irish fan is carrying with them deeply haunted memories of 1993 this week and worried about the patented let down game after upsetting the No. 1 team in the country. I have 5 reasons to assuage your concerns.
1) Road Game
It’ll be good for the team to get away from campus and away from the adoration they’ve been receiving all this week. It would’ve been tough for students to come back inside Notre Dame Stadium following last week’s heroics and bring a ton of energy. It’s better to go to Alumni Stadium in Chestnut Hill and play this game in front of no one. That should make it feel more like a business trip and hopefully keep the team more focused and sidestep fears of lacking an edge.
2) Phil Makes it Personal
If this week is any indication from interviews, Phil Jurkovec was well liked while at Notre Dame. Still, you have to believe his presence in this game adds a little extra something to his former teammates who want to see him dispatched quickly. You also have to think that many players read the internet and are aware of the Jurkovec vs. Book discussions and I’m certain many of them don’t like it too much. Jurkoveck may have been well liked in South Bend but Ian Book is really well liked.
3) Not a Great BC Team
The 1993 Boston College team was pretty good and came into that fateful day on a 7-game winning streak having just beat a very good Virginia Tech team and shutout Pitt in a blowout win the 2 weeks prior. In comparison, the 2020 Boston College team is far more middling. A good comparison would be if the Eagles were more like the current North Carolina team–except with the whole rivalry grudge–and that was the game to play this weekend instead.
4) Trust Clark Lea
During his tenure as defensive coordinator, Clark Lea has lost 3 games from 33 overall. In only one of those games did the defense perform in a way that could be considered poor. In one game, they faced an elite offense and in the other 2 they faced talented but not great offenses that were backed up by elite defenses.
Boston College heads into Saturday 83rd in scoring and we’d have to go back to Duke in 2016 to see a loss versus an offense so below average.
5) TCOB against Unranked Teams
We have surpassed 4 full seasons without a loss to an unranked team. It’s not quite Alabama’s record streak (13 years and counting) but it’s still quite the trend in our own right. No jinx.
Do you feel better? Now, let me cast some doubt!
Let down games are all too real in college football and off the top of my head BYU after Stanford in 2012, Pitt after Oklahoma in 2012, USC after Arizona State in 2013, and Ball State after Michigan in 2018 are some highlight examples of nerve-racking disappointments following some of Brian Kelly’s biggest wins at Notre Dame. At least they were all wins, tight and uncomfortable as they may have been.
Highest-graded QBs outside the pocket:
1. Spencer Rattler, Oklahoma – 92.4
2. Justin Fields, Ohio State – 91.4
3. Phil Jurkovec, Boston College – 86.7
4. Zach Wilson, BYU – 81.7 pic.twitter.com/DA5VoJ2fKQ— PFF College (@PFF_College) November 10, 2020
Normally, one of the big factors in an upset/let down game is whether Notre Dame is facing A) An offense that is balanced and tough to defend or B) A dual-threat quarterback capable of making plays on the fly. Boston College does not meet the requirements for A as their rushing offense is bad–only Pitt’s has been worse on Notre Dame’s schedule to date and that’s largely due to quarterback Kenny Pickett missing so much time.
Jurkovec ticks the box for B, though.
With sacks removed, Jurkovec is averaging a healthy 6.4 yards per carry and he’s a big threat in the red zone with his size and athleticism. He’s also been making a ton of plays outside the pocket (3rd best in the country per PFF) all while running for his life on a lot of snaps.
Add it up and there’s a nice mix of playmaking from the quarterback and explosive plays through the air for a team that doesn’t turn it over much and has been really good at converting 3rd downs.
However, bottom line for me is that a Boston College upset is a little too on the nose even for college football’s whacky standards. The narrative of Jurkovec sticking it to his former team has been forming since August and my crystal ball prediction has a hard time seeing things going so well towards that ultimate plan.
Now, my soul is damaged as a Notre Dame fan and I can see a number of other bad things happening. One, a week after having a career game and one of the greatest in modern Irish history, we could see Ian Book play pretty poorly and out-performed by Jurkovec. I can see a close game and I can see Notre Dame actually playing fairly pedestrian as they come down from the Clemson win. But, I expect the Irish to hold on.
Nice writeup. I’ve watched a lot of BC because I like the good Pittsburgh boy Jurkovec a lot. The major takeaway I have from him is he runs incredibly hot and cold. He’s driven a lot by confidence. If he gets in a groove, he’s very solid. When he’s flustered, he’s missing throws he reasonably should be expected to have.
Just leaving ND and being “the guy” was a big boost for him, as he mentioned in his press conference this week which stirred waves, but he had also said to the PA media earlier about his doubts and even thinking about a position change. It wasn’t a good fit at ND (likely Long’s style and it sounded like Kelly a bit too, though mainly for his attitude/actions were perceived after Phil wanted to transfer and in the waiver process).
Flowers is awesome and Long is very good. And those two are 47% of his completions and I would hazard a guess of about 60% of his targets. He zeroes in on those two. I do think they’ll have Phil running a lot, because what do they have to lose and they’ll know a traditional run game isn’t going to work well.
It’ll be interesting to see how Lea cooks up the defense. I would think Hamilton over the top to take away Flowers and JOK on TE duty, but mixed with both blitzing enough to change up looks and possibly fluster things. Best case, get Phil off track early and it will snowball. If ND comes out flat, this game could be more annoying than it needs to be.
Most all the prognostications seem to be 4-7 point ND wins. Maybe that is the most likely case. I’d hope it’ll be something like 37-21 with some garbage time BC points in there and never in doubt as a best case.
We faced a much better team and QB last week. Clark lea will have a plan to take away what BC does best. They don’t have a 2nd best.
BC is weak against the run…OH OH!….That does not bode well for them.
ND 38 BC 13
I’m thinking something like the 2018 Northwestern game — BC is BC and spends the whole game being annoying and chippy, but can’t get within one score for long enough to really make it scary. Let’s say 37-20, ND.
Great write-up! I am not expecting a letdown game here, I see ND winning by at least 10.
E — how can you mention the red bandana uniforms and not give your take? I think they are odd, but do not hate them. I’ll save my opinion until I see how they appear on tv
I think they are pretty ugly.
They’re ugly up close, but don’t look unusual from a distance. As with most things BC, the correct reaction is, “Huh,” and then going on about your day.
I love them. I am a huge fan of patterns that you only really notice up close. They give it some flare without being distracting.
The forearm sleeves are too much.
This is a situation where I think COVID protocols are really beneficial in terms of limiting the “big win hangover” after Clemson: the players literally couldn’t go party due to the pandemic, and distancing means they have had less contact with other students throughout the week so they get fewer people “blowing sunshine up their a**” as my old coach used to say. I think those factors *hopefully* mean a tighter focus, and I think your point about going to BC and playing in an empty stadium also undercuts the upset factors.
The only thing I see potentially blowing this game would be luck/freaky upset stuff, e.g. redzone turnovers, our corners turning inexplicably into Gary Gray, etc. But since we have a strong running game and Clark Lea, I think this is a comfortable win. I’m also hopeful that the WRs and Book turned a corner confidence-wise and can continue a higher level of play. I’m gonna say 31-13.
It’s really interesting how many transfers Hafley brought in. Not sure what their ceiling is there, but I wonder if Clark Lea got that job if he would have been able to do the same. Only been 8 games but I imagine BC must be very pleased with the start he’s gotten out to under these weird circumstances.
Also this is the 9th game in 9 straight Saturdays for BC. Everyone’s thinking about an ND letdown, but I’m wondering how BC will hold up considering the number Notre Dame’s big boys did to Clemson, and since BC doesn’t really have a good rush defense anyways. I’m kinda hoping this could be a big game for Tyree, assuming he hasn’t hit a wall and is available for like 10 carries. This is begging for two rushers to have 100 yards a piece type of game.
You had me up until the score, E. I can’t see Boston College putting together four scoring drives against this defense. I think their ceiling is 17, probably more likely 13. Phil gets sacked more than anyone in the country and has been loose with the ball – I think even our second string DL will likely be able to get pressure on him and cause some havoc. I think Hamilton is likely going to bait Phil into some throws he really will wish he hadn’t made; recall that against Clemson he had a pick plus another one wiped out by penalty plus a coulda-been pick on his first touchdown.
I could see the offense slowing down a bit, maybe, especially since BC has been decent against the run. Ultimately though I think the Jimmies and Joes are going to overwhelm the X’s and O’s. I’ll say a 38-13 win.
Do you think BC has an Xs and Os advantage? Or are they just not Jimmies and Joes because they are no longer DUDES?
So which is it? BC has a good run defense or doesn’t have a good run defense? Both opinions in the comments below.
I pick the same score as Brendan but, he’s the first I’ve seen say BC has a good run defense and that includes a BC site.
Got it, thanks.
Their run D was weak earlier in the year but had been improving; Jamie Uyeyama at ISD said in his preview that he didn’t expect us to be able to run all over them.
Whoops. 🙂