When I think about the University of California, Berkeley I picture their stadium in the hills, earthquakes, hippies, Marshawn Lynch, Aaron Rodgers, 1950’s era cheerleader uniforms, and their mascot Oski the Bear. Truth is this Cal program hasn’t been on Notre Dame’s radar pretty much at all since Vietnam. The Irish faced the Golden Bears 4 times between 1959 and 1967 then decided that was enough.
Notre Dame fans may remember current Cal head coach Justin Wilcox. He was the defensive coordinator at USC (2014-15) and has coordinated defenses at a bunch of big schools (Boise State, Tennessee, Washington, Wisconsin) before taking the job in Berkeley back in 2017.
Wilcox sputtered a bit out of the gate before putting together a strong 2019 finishing 2nd in the Pac-12 North thanks to big road victories over Washington and Stanford, the latter the first victory in The Big Game in a decade. Things have gone back to the usual results since the 2020 Covid year but Cal typically has played strong defense throughout the Wilcox era and is still searching for an offense that can compete with the upper two-thirds of their schedule.
California (+11) at Notre Dame
Notre Dame Stadium
South Bend, Indiana
Date: Saturday, September 17, 2022
Time: 2:30 PM ET
TV: NBC/Peacock
Series: 4-0-0 Notre Dame
The Irish come in licking serious wounds after last week’s debacle against Marshall. The public found out on Monday afternoon that starting quarterback Tyler Buchner is out for the season following his shoulder surgery and in his place the offense will turn to Drew Pyne now desperate for a win at all costs.
California Offense
We have a pattern with this Cal program–whenever their offense shows improvement their defense regresses and whenever the defense gets better the offense regresses. They can’t put it all together.
Former offensive coordinator Beau Baldwin left to take the Cal-Poly job after 3 seasons in Berkeley and the Golden Bears brought in Bill Musgrave prior to 2020 to run the offense after he spent nearly all of the past 20 years in the NFL.
The results have largely remained the same across the Wilcox era, the Cal offense is either below average or pretty bad. So far in 2022, the offense is averaging 5.6 yards per play with a combined 54 points and 6 touchdowns against a FCS team and lower-tier Mountain West team.
| YEAR | Offense FEI | Defense FEI |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 95 | 33 |
| 2021 | 86 | 41 |
| 2020 | 109 | 31 |
| 2019 | 63 | 43 |
| 2018 | 116 | 11 |
| 2017 | 76 | 56 |
Offensive line definitely looks like a weak spot and has to be exploited by Notre Dame. Redshirt junior Ben Coleman (6-4, 330) has moved to left tackle after making his first year of starting last year at left guard. New left guard Brian Driscoll (6-4, 315) was in a backup role and missed the last third of 2021 with an injury. 5th-year center Matthew Cindric (6-4, 295) is a veteran with 29 career starts. Cal brought in Arizona State transfer 5th-year veteran right guard Spencer Lovell (6-6, 335) this off-season while redshirt junior Brayden Rohm (6-6, 285) has some left tackle starts under his belt prior to 2022 and is now at right tackle.
The big off-season acquisition was Purdue transfer Jack Plummer at quarterback. He started the game against Notre Dame last year and has good size at 6-5 with steady production throughout his career. He’s good a good arm but the Irish will need to take advantage of his lack of mobility behind the Golden Bear’s line.
Plummer to Hunter has been fruitful so far in 2022.
The Golden Bears do have some weapons for Plummer to distribute the ball. Junior running back Damien Moore was efficient in a backup role during his first 2 years and was looking to move up to the starting role in 2022. However, Cal really likes true freshman Jaydn Ott (their top 2022 recruit) so we’ll see him a lot in addition to redshirt junior DeCarlos Brooks.
Through the air, California is led by 2 wideouts both over 100 receiving yards so far in 2022. Redshirt freshman J. Michael Sturdivant is one of the program’s top recruits in recent years. He’ll team up with junior Jeremiah Hunter who leads the team in catches and yardage. In general, Cal fans are really high on these 2 wideouts but they aren’t very experienced.
California’s Defense
Prior to the 2019 season, linebacker coach Peter Sirmon moved into the co-defensive coordinator role with Tim DeRuyter and last year DeRuyter was lured away to run the Oregon defense which bumped Sirmon up to the full-time job for California.
They hit the Portal this off-season to bolster their defense, including bringing in Washington linebacker Jackson Sirmon (son of the DC) who led the Huskies in tackles for 2021 and came into this fall as a 1st-team all-Pac 12 selection. Additionally, Cal brought in linebackers Odua Isibor (UCLA) and Xavier Carlton (Utah) and they’re making a solid impact so far.
In name, they run a 3-4 scheme and rely on a lot of linebackers. Quite often they keep only 2 players down in 3-point stances while 2 linebackers are standing on the edge. One of those linebackers is basically a defensive end though, for example the aforementioned Carlton comes in at 6’6″ and 270 pounds.
Lots of different fronts and a high-energy defense.
Their linemen are tough and provide pretty good size. However, the program really misses veteran tackle Brett Johnson who was lost for the season for the second straight year. So far in 2022, their defensive linemen have zero tackles for loss.
The Golden Bears lost tremendous safety Elijah Hicks to the NFL (7th round pick to Chicago) and bring back pre-season all-Pac 12 talent Daniel Scott. The secondary is a good group, but there will be opportunities to make plays for Notre Dame.
This is an aggressive defense that you can tell is well-coached. It’s been a hallmark of the Wilcox era. I don’t see a ton of playmaking or big time difference makers that Notre Dame would normally worry about. However, these are not normal times in South Bend. This Cal defense is smart and runs hard to the ball with a ton of energy. If they come up with even a half-decent gameplan against Drew Pyne it could be really tough to move the ball.
Prediction
With all due respect to California, I don’t think many Irish fans care all that much about the intricate details of this matchup. With Notre Dame in full-on CRISIS MODE preparing to play their backup quarterback this is largely all about how the Irish respond to adversity.
I have zeroed in on 3 keys for this matchup on Saturday:
Full-Scale Buy-In
In the modern era of Notre Dame under Brian Kelly (outside of 2016) this would be an easy call for me to predict a solid bounce back for the Irish. The problem is Brian Kelly is no longer around, and well, this could be a 2016-type of season unfolding before our eyes.
We’ve been typing away both here and in our writers room all week asking what happened to this team and program this season and it’s quite possible that there’s been a mixture of tiredness, overconfidence, and coaching mistakes mixed with natural roster turnover that has led to a deadly early September showing.
There’s a natural worry about what that means for Marcus Freeman or how he could let this happen but it doesn’t necessarily mean there’s a mutiny afoot, players think Freeman is a fraud, or even that Freeman let things deteriorate by being too nice.
I’m guessing there’s an awful lot of pride in that locker room and there will be a motivated bunch of players ready for Saturday. That doesn’t solve everything of course. There are still plenty of personnel and gameplan worries but I don’t expect a flat and/or disinterested Notre Dame against California.
Lines Have to Win
The Irish lines have been blasted for their performance over the past couple weeks and need to re-group quickly. The offensive side of the ball needs to get serviceable immediately while the defense needs to come back to a reality where they can dominate opponents, especially perceived weaker opponents.
𝐈𝐫𝐢𝐬𝐡 𝐖𝐞𝐚𝐫 𝐆𝐫𝐞𝐞𝐧 pic.twitter.com/mXYPZWCj3q
— Notre Dame Football (@NDFootball) September 15, 2022
This is a stark reminder of the improvement needed by Notre Dame: Through 2 games, the defense has allowed 48 successful runs and the Irish offense has only provided 27 successful runs. Remove the now-injured Buchner from the equation and that dips down to just 16 successful runs, including just 14 from the running backs.
With a less mobile quarterback coming in you’d like to lean on some heavier packages, take some pressure off Pyne, and run the ball well. That won’t work if there’s a dreadful 7 successful runs from the backs in the game.
Don’t Mess it Up, Drew
Drew Pyne may be the smallest package to start a game at Notre Dame since Harry Stuhldreher coordinated the Four Horsemen backfield at a lean, mean 5’7″ and 151 pounds. Pyne isn’t much of a running threat (major red flags for the Irish run game, will they now have a less mobile QB and suddenly improve running the ball?) and you don’t want to risk too many hits in the pocket, either.
So, Pyne has to get rid of the ball quickly which means A) smart decision-making B) not many chances for deeper routes to develop and C) California’s defense can load the box, play tight on receivers, and crash down-hill after the snap.
I wouldn’t want to be Tommy Rees right now. The mob is out for blood and even a great gameplan executed really well may lead to fewer than 30 points for the Irish. The over/under is 40.5 for a reason!
My brain says Notre Dame loses, my heart says they’ll come through with an inspired performance (especially defensively) and pull this out to avoid more embarrassment.
Holy hell, that was depressing. The worst part is there just doesn’t feel like there’s that much to look forward to. There’s no young qb to excite, the freshman skill talent is tobias and that’s it since price is out for the year. Pyne is like a homeless man’s ian book, which is decidedly not fun. I guess I got a lot more flexibility back in my weekends. it’s just funny how much less fun all football is when your team sucks. Kind of where i’m at right now
Hey, baseball is pretty fun!
But to your point, no, there isn’t much to look forward to. At this point, we’re basically watching to see whether and when Freeman can stop the tailspin.
I am curious, resetting expectations for the year, what would success look like from here on out? 7-5 with angeli, tobias rairdon and some young d players showing out?
I’d take going 7-3 the rest of the way in a heartbeat at this point, considering the circumstances. Beating everyone except BYU, Clemson and USC shouldn’t be that much to ask for, even though nothing is an automatic win with the way ND is playing now. And I suspect they will not be able to do that.
7-5 sounds amazing given what we’ve seen so far.
I thought even 6-6 wouldn’t be that bad given none of the losses are to Cal, UNLV, Syracuse, Navy, or BC.
I’d take/trade a loss to Cal or Cuse if it means we beat someone better.
Yes, but not to Cal because 0-3 I think would the narrative would get real bad, real quick (depending on how we lost too).
Syracuse right now actually has a pretty good QB it seems.
The narrative is already real bad. Losing this week wouldn’t make it get much worse much quicker. At least Cal is a P5 team. But I guess there’s a good chance we find out just how much worse the narrative can get.
I would gladly lose to Cal, go 0-3, and have the narrative hit rock bottom, if it meant beating a good team later in the season. If we are somehow guaranteeing wins, I’d rather get the losses over with early and let the team have a legit turnaround, with a 7-2 finish and at least one win over a ranked team.
Sadly, it doesn’t work like this anyway. Losing to Cal, a decent possibility, won’t help us beat a better team later in the year. So my preference really is that we beat everyone.
Generally speaking, about 8 times out of 10, I’d rather lose to a mediocre team and beat a good team, than beat a mediocre team and lose to a good team.
A bowl game and holding the recruiting class together, Carr especially.
Holding the recruiting class together is, far and away, the most important thing that can happen to ND football in the next four months short of Angeli coming in and looking like a guy who should have been a five-star. Seems unlikely we won’t have further attrition, though.
Success? Well, I was pretty worried before the trade deadline when we were trailing the Brewers until Mo and Girsch stole a pitcher from the Yankees for Bader and grabbed Quintana for peanuts. Now that Wainwright and Molina have set the all-time battery mate record and Albert is #4 all time in HRs, success is Albert getting over 700 home runs and at least to the NLCS.
Oh, for ND. That’s a lot less fun to think about right now…but success is Freeman not losing the team. The team did NOT bounce back from OSU. Bad sign. If they don’t bounce back from Marshall does he lose buy in? I think if he keeps the team on board, then we may have some recruiting class losses, but not too many. Lose the team, and the recruits will figure that out on visits.
If you’re a head coach with a track record like Holtz or Kelly you can always point to that when times are bad as a sign that you know how to turn things around. But like Weis or Davie, what has Freeman ever turned around?
Gut check time to dig deep and see what they got. I’m strangely OK with Pyne, even though he’s obviously got limitations and isn’t going to have the offense humming like a perfect machine.
If the OL is better, some semblance of a run game returns and the defense plays hard, I think this one should be OK. That is a lot of if’s at this point for things that should have been automatic.
I do like a 21-17ish win for ND this week. Survive and keep it movin.
Also, idk what is worse:
–blue numbers on the green jerseys (just make ’em gold, for Pete’s sake!!!)
–adding names AND putting them in white, on a green jersey, right above the blue numbers
Atrocious. UA giving a very 2022 effort (poor!) with these abominations.
“We’re adding names to the jerseys.”
“Awesome!”
“They’re a different color than the numbers.”
“…”
This is EXACTLY what went through my head when I saw that jersey.
Irish Sports Daily knows the way with white numbers:
(Lightened slightly on my end to make it a bit brighter green and picture overall).
bigger #s and it’s literally perfect
oh well
interested to see how these greens look in the day at least
Yes, white numbers would be a big improvement. And at least it would match the name plates. This design they’re going with really bugs me as being non-pleasing.
Maybe the green will look good on the field, to your point. In general, I think the Under Armor green is too vibrant and bright of a shade, but that’s just personal preference for the 2005 USC game jersey. To me, that’s about the ideal Notre Dame jersey.
yeah i agree the mid 2000s/late 90s shade of green is my favorite but under UA in non football sports the green has shifted to a much brighter shade which i like a lot for those sports but i just don’t really think it looks great in football probably because of the gold pants. i liked the 2015 shamrock series look
This pic is a reminder that Drew Pyne is both short *and* has a gut
Not that there’s anything wrong with that.
I think a disorganized, low-effort uniform is perfect for this team.
i think we’re liable to score more points with our defense and ST than the offense this saturday in a game that gives the 2020 UL contest a run for it’s money
13-7 Notre Dame
I’ve done a complete turnaround on Rees. I think his biggest weakness seems to be talent evaluation. Whether looking at the QBs he’s recruited and some that he passed on in recruiting. Or, his evaluation of the talent and abilities of the rest of his offense, he’s done a poor job. I don’t think he used Buchner’s abilities all that wisely, which leaves me wondering if he’ll come out of the gate Saturday knowing the best way to utilize Pyne. If Pyne doesn’t recognize what the defense is giving him much much better than Buchner did, I foresee another long afternoon. But even if he does, short of an Oline transformation, I don’t see how the run game will be better given Pyne’s abilities. If we’re in 2nd and 3rd and long situations too often, I expect more offensive struggles. It’s still a passing game weighed too heavily on the TE. I expect some batted down balls on Pyne passing attempts and ND to struggle more in the red zone with Pyne than Buchner. (though they may get to the RZ more often)
The defense needs to be stout Saturday and flip the field position with 3 and outs to help the offense. Perhaps both defenses will score on Saturday.
I have been thinking the same thing too — and isn’t his dad one of the top talent evaluators on the ND staff?
There’s no evidence that Bill or Tommy Rees have any ability to evaluate modern high school talent whatsoever, particularly at the QB position. There’s negative evidence, if anything.
Reminder that Tommy has been in charge of QBs for five years.
Tommy’s best QB recruiting evaluation decision of his tenure, by far, was to recruit Jack Coan. There is no second good decision, and of course that decision was made necessary in part by bad decisions he was at least partially responsible for.
Turns out giving Kelly another yes man with zero experience was a mistake.
This has the potential to be a stomach churning game unless Pyne exceeds expectations, but in my inimitable brand of optimism I’ll still predict an Irish win, 9-5 over da Bears.
That’s 14 points, a low scoring, but perfectly normal number of points to score in a football game.
In theory, this game is a good candidate for a Wake TF Up Moment. Pyne starting should, hopefully, force Rees into more logical offensive design and playcalling. If the offense consistently goes 45-50 yards and kicks a FG, fine. That at least gives the defense some rest and gets points on the board. Plus, everyone on this team should be embarrassed and playing angry. If these things come to pass, we can ugly our way to a low-scoring win.
Unfortunately, I can’t predict change until I see some evidence of it. No change to the OL depth chart, no change in playcalling duties, apparently no real change in offensive approach.
My best guess: We’ll see some semblance of the offensive gameplan above in the first half and have two good drives resulting in a TD and a FG. Late in the first half, we’ll have an opportunity to put the game out of reach, but we’ll bungle game management and go to the locker room disappointed. The second half will be business as usual – we’ll alternate between stuffed inside runs out of heavy sets and incomplete passes from empty sets. General frustration and Pyne not being able to see over the OL will lead to a couple turnovers, the defense will wear down late, and Cal will leave with a 13-10 win.
I think that this is the game where ND finally focuses on its strengths — long snapping and punting
Look you carry two scholarship long-snappers for a season like this
For some reason, when I think of Pyne, I think of the Sorin replica statue in Sorin Hall. Rather immobile until lifted off the shelf to go traveling. Always welcomed home. Rubbing Pyne’s helmet may also bring luck even when he’s on the sideline. It can’t hurt and has to be better than rubbing some rock.