Finally, the day of days is upon us. What though the odds, Notre Dame will play Clemson in the biggest game at Notre Dame Stadium since 2005. The importance of this showdown has somehow remained a constant throughout a global pandemic and chaotic election season. In many ways, it felt like we would never arrive at this moment but now that it’s here, let’s dive into the first top-5 matchup in South Bend since the 1993 Game of the Century.
#1 Clemson (-5.5) at #4 Notre Dame
Notre Dame Stadium
South Bend, Indiana
Date: Saturday, November 7, 2020
Time: 7:30 PM ET
TV: NBC
| Advanced Stats | Irish | Clemson |
| S&P Offense | 16th | 6th |
| FEI Offense | 9th | 6th |
| F+/- Offense | 11th | 5th |
| S&P Defense | 8th | 10th |
| FEI Defense | 10th | 2nd |
| F+/- Defense | 7th | 3rd |
| SP+ Overall | 7th | 4th |
| FEI Overall | 6th | 3rd |
| F/+ Overall | 6th | 3rd |
Mood:
Clemson’s Offense
Last Thursday, D.J. Uiagalelei became the most important player in the ACC if not the whole country. The news that Trevor Lawrence, one of the best quarterbacks of the playoff era, would not play instantly changed the dynamics of this game. However, it’s unclear whether the switch from a former #1 rated QB to another has changed the Clemson offense. Uiagalelei’s performance against Boston College was virtually indistinguishable on the stat sheet from something you would expect from Lawrence.
Travis Etienne is an old foe and the best running back in the country who has somehow improved measurably since the last time we played the Tigers. He has been terrorizing opponents in the passing game with 15.0 yards per catch this season after adding that weapon to his arsenal last year. That has more than made up for a noticeable dip in his yards per carry from 7.7 his first three years to 5.9 in 2020. Here’s a fun game: Etienne is the best opposing running back Notre Dame has faced since…? I’ll go with either Zeke Elliot or Christian McCaffrey.
The Clemson receiving corps is led by senior Amari Rodgers who is having a breakout year in the absence of preseason All-American Justyn Ross. I’ll have more on the rest of those guys in a bit. Finally, the offensive line went through a reset in replacing four starters from 2019 which helps explain Etienne’s reduced production on the ground. This is not the mauler line from 2018 and 2019, which could prove to be an equalizer for Notre Dame’s defensive front in this contest.
Clemson’s Defense
Unlike the 2018 Clemson defense which ranked first in every statistical category when it swallowed up the Irish offense in the playoff, the 2020 version is ranked a measly tenth in SP+ and third in F+/-. It is still chockfull of fast, aggressive blue-chippers and coordinated by one of the best defensive minds of the 21st century. The only teams to truly give this defense trouble the last three years were 2016 Alabama, 2019 Ohio State, and 2019 LSU which are three of the best college football teams in the playoff era.
Andrew Booth is the biggest defensive star at cornerback and may have already made the play of the year in college football. He’s flanked by Derion Kendrick who is another shutdown corner. The linebackers are good even without Isaiah Simmons, with Jake Venables (the coach’s kid) and Baylon Spector leading the way with 63 combined tackles and four sacks. Together, they combine with a defensive line led by former five-star Myles Murphy that holds opponents to just 4.3 yards per play, the same number allowed by the 2019 defense which ranked fourth in SP+.
Highest-graded CBs in press coverage:
Derion Kendrick, Clemson – 89.8
Andrew Booth Jr, Clemson – 88.2 pic.twitter.com/SZToKhFIEV— PFF College (@PFF_College) October 17, 2020
That being said, this isn’t the same defense the Irish labored against in the Cotton Bowl two years ago. Clemson is coming into this game without two key starters in middle linebacker James Skalski and outside linebacker Mike Jones Jr. The Tigers were a bit squishy against our old pal Phil Jurkovec and Boston College last weekend, allowing over 200 yards in the first half before clamping down. Outside of those thirty minutes and a bizarre stretch where they allowed 21 points to Syracuse, Clemson’s defense has been lights out this year. It’s yet another outstanding unit from a team accustomed to being in the top-five every season on defense, but one having to play with key absences this weekend.
Three questions…
Can the Irish secondary gum up the passing game?
Even when we expected Lawrence to play, there were some rays of hope on this front. When Justyn Ross went down for the season, the Tigers were left with a talented but young receiver room. With the departure of Tee Higgins on top of Ross’ injury, Clemson has broken in multiple new starters next to Rodgers. Because Lawrence is a Quarterback God, he can elevate the play of his receivers by always putting the ball where it needs to be. Even then…
So you know how, with Justyn Ross out, Clemson needed other WRs to step up? If we define stepping up as "beating man coverage" (or what @SportsInfo_SIS defines as man coverage), they really haven't just yet.
Lawrence is at 40% comp rate and 4.9 yds/pass against man in '20. pic.twitter.com/px9gvLoMRp
— Bill Connelly (@ESPN_BillC) October 27, 2020
Funny enough, Tony Elliot and Dabo have their own receiving problems much like the Irish. Clemson’s passing game has put up gaudy numbers against ACC defenses which have mostly played dumb by letting the Tigers’ untested receivers roam around the secondary with little challenge. The Irish defense plays man coverage a little more than 50% of the time, but I anticipate Clark Lea will put Tariq Bracy and Nick McCloud on islands all night long. But the coverage will have to be tight, it can’t be like the 2013 title game with Amari Cooper running wide open with nobody around him.
Outside of Rodgers and Etienne, there isn’t a ton of experienced talent at the receiver position for the Tigers. Frank Ladsen and Cornell Powell were both high four-star recruits, but this season is their first taste of real football. Braden Galloway had big games against Miami and Wake Forest yet has done little outside of those two contests. Even with Lawrence, I think the Irish had a chance to disrupt Clemson’s rhythm because of this vulnerability. If ND’s secondary can play stingy and aggressive man defense against these receivers, they will force the Tigers to play outside their comfort zone with a second-game starter at QB.
Can the Irish offense play their game?
It took six games, but I think Irish fans have finally accepted this offense for what it is. There won’t be a Kevin Austin or Braden Lenzy breakout season that will suddenly unlock an elite passing game. Instead, Tommy Rees has been content to grind down opposing defenses using a deep running back pool. So far, this has worked against overmatched opponents and Ian Book hasn’t had to carry the offense outside of a couple of moments. Time of possession has made a renaissance, with the Irish possessing the ball for more than 34 minutes per game which is second among teams that have played at least six games.
The looming threat of Clemson’s offense means Rees will once again try to suck the air out of the ball. Notre Dame’s offensive line has been better than advertised this season and has bulldozed opponents in short yardage situations, converting 78.3% of third or fourth downs with two yards or less to go. Furthermore, the offensive line has put the Irish in good position to convert short yardage situations by gaining an average of 3.4 yards per rush on passing downs, a number which would’ve ranked eighth last year. So far, the ground and pound plan has worked to near-perfection.
The question is whether the Irish offense can get to those third and short situations. Clemson’s defense ranks fourth in Stuff Rate at 30% (stopping the running back at or before the line of scrimmage) and sixth in standard downs stuff rate, meaning the Tigers will likely put Ian Book in a lot of third and longs if the offensive line can’t handle Venables’ defensive front. At that point, it’ll be up to Book to play the game of his life and complete some big passes. He hasn’t really been asked to do that so far this season, but there will be nowhere to hide tomorrow night on passing downs. He simply has to perform along with the beleaguered receiving corps.
Will the big moments finally favor Notre Dame?
For every big game failure in the past ten years, Irish fans can point at one moment that would’ve changed everything. In 2014, it was the offensive pass interference that cost the Irish a win in Tallahassee. The following year, Clemson and Stanford made key plays at all the right time to doom what could’ve been a playoff season. Even in the first quarter of the 2018 semifinal, a controversial non-fumble went against the Irish in a game where they needed every possible break against the eventual champions.
Of course, these moments aren’t all about luck. Notre Dame will obviously have to execute in key moments against the Tigers in a way they didn’t against Georgia and Michigan last year. Clemson’s injuries and COVID scratches might allow for a larger margin for error on Saturday, but not by much. This will be a contest where the Irish and Ian Book have to force their own luck, and their advantages on the ground and on defense can create those openings. The intangibles haven’t favored Notre Dame football in a game like this since the one depicted in the video at the top of the page. It’s finally time to get this done.
Prediction
The formula going into this game seems obvious: shut down Etienne in the run game and rattle D.J. Uiagalelei while the offense dominates on the ground for a blue collar victory. I know that it’s pretty unfair that the Tigers are replacing the #1 quarterback recruit from the 2017 class with… the #1 quarterback recruit of 2020. It also doesn’t help that the dude chucks the ball a mile and is built like Cam Newton. Yet, his inexperience and the fact that he can’t possibly be as pinpoint accurate as Lawrence opens a lot of doors for Notre Dame.
This matchup would be a wash on the defensive side of the ball if the Tigers were at full strength, but the Irish defense will be the better unit this Saturday night. Whereas the Tigers rank fourth in Stuff Rate, the Irish actually one-up them by being second. While the Tigers are sixth in standard downs defense, Notre Dame is third. Clemson is tenth in Defensive SP+ while the Irish are eighth. That is a huge feather in the cap for the program in this setting and might prove to be the antidote to Etienne and Uiagalelei.
The Irish run game will be under an intense microscope for four quarters. ND’s six losses in the last three years all have something in common: the complete disappearance of the rushing attack. Here are the yards per carry of the six losses since 2016: 1.5, 3.0, 3.5, 2.5, 3.3, and 1.5. The likes of Kyren Williams, Chris Tyree and C’Bo Flemister are going to have to double the highest number on that list for the Irish be in position to win. That’s a tall order, but I think this offense is better equipped than any ND team since the Holtz days to actually grind out those necessary yards. The question is whether they can do that against Venables and Co.
Of course, there is a measure of “I’ll believe it when I see it” when it comes to big games but other elements bother me. For one, we are going to be asking a lot out of Tommy Rees. He is going to have to outcoach one of the best defensive minds of the last 15 years of college football for four quarters. Rees has been good so far, but this game requires great and I’m not sure he’s capable of that just yet. The fact that 90% of ND’s potential issues in this matchup lay on the offensive side of the ball is concerning.
I unconditionally trust the Irish defense at this point. They are legitimately great and will give Clemson fits in the run game. But if there is one weakness, it is the paltry four turnovers forced against teams not named Pitt. I think the inability to force havoc plays could prove devastating against a team that will ultimately string together enough drives to put points on the board. However, this game would swing dramatically towards Notre Dame if Uiagalelei throws in Kyle Hamilton’s direction one too many times. I’m just not sure he will do that enough to change the outcome.
To be clear, I am expecting an incredibly close game. If this contest ends up looking anything like 2017 Miami or 2019 Michigan, there should be righteous anger about the direction of the program. The Irish are getting a wounded team at home that is missing the best player in college football. This should finally be the moment for Notre Dame football to rise up and get a statement win, yet it just doesn’t feel like it to me. Maybe that’s just a gut feeling, but I stand by it.
Unfortunately, I just can’t pick the Irish to win this game in good faith. The fanbase is so hungry for a win of this magnitude and I want this so badly for Ian Book’s legacy, yet I think we’ll have to wait a bit longer. The Tigers will likely shut down the run just enough to make points scarce, and I trust their offense to squeeze at least one more scoring opportunity out of this game. Notre Dame has winning DNA built into the program, but I think the team with championship DNA takes this one.
Clemson 19
Notre Dame 17
At least we’ll see them again in Charlotte!
I’m thinking along the same lines, trusting Clemson slightly more in a defensive struggle, but well within that range where anything can happen with turnovers, special teams, a busted play or two, etc.
One thing watching back DJ U. against Boston College that was interesting – the numbers were great, but a lot of very quick and easy reads for him in his first start (three step drop, see zone, throw to a quick hitch or slant). He has an absolute cannon but had some Kizer-like throws where he skipped some or fired them hard and high, and on throws further downfield and near the sidelines it seems like he’d rather fit it in with velocity still versus more of a touch pass.
Notable for a few reasons – as you mention I think we will play a bit tighter and more aggressively with our corners, and if he’s off on some of those or we can get deflections some of those high throws should be interception opportunities. We’ll also need to be wary of double-moves, because they’ve got a lot of these short routes at or short of the sticks on tape and not really any deep shots but those will definitely be coming.
Could definitely see this game coming down to Shaun Crawford; either he jumps an out route for a huge pick, or he gets beat on a double move trying to jump a route.
26-17, Notre Dame.
I have a gut-feeling we get 2 huge turnovers on defense leading to 6 to 10 points. Can’t wait to be wrong!
(Damn it, we’re due for this aren’t we?)
I think this score is about spot on, but for some more color: Book causes two turnovers so we’re never really close and the defense does well otherwise. Our defense also gifts us golden field position to make the score seem closer than it is.
Despite our starting talent at non-skill positions being comparable tomorrow, they just have more talent top to bottom. It’s been years now that we’ve seen freshman or first time starters step in and dominate, so I would be surprised if Book has a better game than DJU.
I will be stressed and expecting us to win on every play during the game. But come Sunday morning, I will be happy if we kept it within a TD.
We certainly could win this game. I wouldn’t be shocked. I’d be so happy, I don’t even know if surprise would register. But I just don’t think we are in the same league as Clemson (or tOSU or Bama).
I expect something like 25-16.
I feel like ND has reached it’s ceiling as a school that values education (not just in recruiting, but in season school expectations on players). Which is totally fine by me. Unfortunately for tomorrow, that ceiling is below where Clemson is, even without the players they are missing. I just don’t feel like we are competing on the same playing field on so many areas outside of the actual playing field.
Agreed. We are solidly at the top of the 2nd tier of college football – which means we are regularly and legitimately a top-10 team (4-10). This means on a given night, if things go well, we can beat that top tier (Clemson, OSU, Bama generally) but that’s just it, they need to go well – get a break, don’t drop any easy passes, less penalties, things like that. Tier 1 has some room to make a few mistakes and still beat teams lower than them.
Disagree that we are at our ceiling. I think we can recruit better in multiple ways (I’d call BK overall a B recruiter, and we definitely don’t invest as much into our operation as some other top programs, with some gap we could decrease even if not becoming top spenders). Somewhat related also have been on a damn good run here without ever getting ELITE QB play. That’s probably a mix of recruiting, development, and bad luck.
What that underrates is some of the other things BK has done well – since the BVG firing good coordinator and staff hires overall, a strong player development program, and solid job in talent assessment (i.e. picking the right 3* guys if you can’t get the others at the top of the list). The big storyline of his era I think will be how well BK raised the floor of the program with his consistency (2016 insanity nonwithstanding), beating teams we should beat, especially in this last phase, and getting the university to invest in stuff like Crossroads, the new facility, turf, etc.
All of that has taken us firmly into Tier 2 and in the last few seasons the top of it like you mention and gives the next hire a ton to work with, the question is if they can do the things above to raise the ceiling and go to the next level, because it’s probably only a handful of guys who can do that and provide the development and big picture stability BK has.
I could not have been more wrong and couldn’t be happier about that.
In my 18 years of existence I have known mostly nothing but heartbreak and emptiness from Notre Dame in situations such as this. But with that being said I’ve never quite felt about a Notre Dame Game the way I do this one and I really feel that this is the game that cements Ian Book as a Notre Dame legend
He tears Clemson up with his legs on some key plays early and makes them pay for selling out to stop Kyren Williams and the ground game with some deep passes to Big Ben and Michael Mayer
The defense swarms an inexperienced and underperforming Clemson OL and makes DJ pay for freshman mistakes by forcing some essential turnovers to give ND the ball with great field position
ND 35
Clemson 17
I think we need to see Ian Book with 10 rushes for 70 yds. or so. A couple 10 -12 yarders early. This would help the RBs some . (Kyren, NO FUMBLES) We should have faith that Ian won’t turn the ball over and hope that their Frosh QB will. Kyle Hamilton cements his AA status with a pick and helps limit Etienne to a reasonable 150 yds total offense. The O line needs to be great tmrw. They know that. I think they will be. ND has the ball for 35 minutes.
ND 27 Clemson 24
I’d be thrilled if Book can be effective with his legs. That should the one thing Venables will be able to gameplan and take away with spying and Clemson is athletic enough that they’ll cover ground and close up his escape.
I’d like to see Book just stand tall, step up in the pocket and throw it as his key. He’s going to need to do something with his arm to keep it two-dimensional. IMO either McKinley or Skowronek will have to have like 80+ yards of receiving. Will it happen? Doesn’t feel sturdy.
If Clemson spies Book, Tommy Rees can take advantage of that. If we know how Clemson might approach things certainly TR does. I agree that Book has to be more decisive early in his reads. Never have I screamed “throw the damn ball” so often at at QB.
I’m pretty confident our defense can hold them to about 24. I am not at all confident our offense can score that much. I’d say something like Clemson, 24-10.
The good news is it probably won’t matter a ton given the state of the ACC.
What did I say about faith acs
Brian Kelly has a plan!
I said the exact same thing about our defense limiting them to 24 points or under. However, I’m more bullish on our offense, if our defense can give them some help either in the form of a key turnover or a kick return that gives the offense really great field position.
There is definitely a path to victory here that doesn’t rely on absurd luck or Clemson just shitting the bed. If we can get the run game going, I think we can probably suffocate Clemson something like 20-17. Kelly 2.0 teams are very good at the boa constrictor act.
My head says that ND will struggle to win, although it should be a close game. However, let’s make a heart prediction.
I think that ND’s defense is even better than we realize. Thus far we have seen an incredible amount of rotation on all three levels of defense throughout the games. This is of course the right decision for many reasons and many top teas do this. However, tomorrow other than the DL I don’t expect to see a ton of subbing except for brief breaks and for passing situations. This should allow the defense to hit their ceiling and hold Clemson to 24 points or under and get a key turnover that gives the offense either points or great field position.
The offense is the dicey one. I do think that we will be able to run the ball for decent success but I can’t imagine that we will ground and pound Clemson into submission. But, 140 yards on the ground and converting on 3rd and shorts will hopefully be enough. I doubt that we start to chuck the ball deep all of a sudden (although with Mayer, Tremble, and McKinley it feels like we have the chance to win a fair number of these if we actually were to throw them) but we really need to use a lot more RPOs and play action passes this game to get easy yards and chunk plays. The offense has to punish Clemson for putting 8 guys in the box or coming on run blitzes. I haven’t seen enough of this to be confident that the offense will be able to score enough without some help from the defense in terms of field position or turnovers.
But, I’ll say that for one magical evening both offense and defense hit their ceiling and we are able to get the win. I’ll say 27-21 Notre Dame
If ND wins, it is because BK did the most genius coaching move of his career this year. By having Salerno fair catch every punt so far this year, Clemson will fall asleep on punt coverage and BOOM watch Salerno return one to the house like Zbikowski!
While I get the sarcastic tone, I actually think a big kickoff return by Tyree might end up being a huge play.
As mentioned, LB James Skalski is out, but DT Tyler Davis is also out which is a huge deal. Their best DE Xavier Thomas is out for the first half. Another LB in Mike Jones (who?) is out. That has to help neutralize Rees vs. Venables. The answer is clear, either ND’s o-line wins this game with ground control and an effective rushing attack, or they struggle and it’s very, very disappointing.
I’m hoping for the good option. If the Irish don’t do it now, then when? ACC CG with Lawrence back and presumably more of the first string defense back will be a lot more daunting. ND is home, has as much going for them as they ever will. 21-17 ND, but I think/hope it could be even more.
21-17 Irish. Play action gets things going early, RBs do enough late to melt the clock down. Clemson gets 0 quick strike scores, with their longest play not clearing 35 yards.
Just read an article from Sports Illustrated about Clemson and how they are notorious for stealing signals. Here is the link. https://www.si.com/college/2020/11/06/clemson-signal-stealing-dabo-swinney-daily-cover
Wondering if ND has planned anything to counter this. If we aren’t going to be playing at tempo, something we haven’t done all year, then wristbands or short huddles seems to be a simple and effective method of beating signal stealing.
I sincerely don’t mean this as sour grapes, but I think they’re dirty as hell. There’s this sign stealing stuff, and the fact that, in 2018, they had multiple players test positive for ostarine, which is not legal anywhere in the world for human consumption. But that got hand-waved away because Dabo is a nice guy, or something.
Sure, I’ll not disagree. I think that Clemson gets the benefit of the doubt of not being dirty for two reasons. They are not an Alabama or Ohio St. where there is a huge history of football success and so it seems like they are still the nice new guy to the party. Not as much dirty laundry and hate through the years associated with them. The second reason you touched on. I don’t know if Dabo is really a nice guy or not, but he seems less of a Darth Vader type than Nick Saban and so gets treated a bit different.
Just my observation and feelings.
This was mentioned in a South Bend Tribune article today (Hanson?) — it noted that BK was aware of this and is taking steps to avoid this problem (e.g., more reliance on a wristband of plays for Book)
One thing I noticed about the BC vs Clemson game is that BC moved the ball in the first half using a number of down the field throws. A couple of the throws weren’t even that great, but they gave the receiver a chance to make a play and they did. Now, that didn’t continue through the second half but the point is that the throws were made down the field.
We will have to be willing to do that a few times tomorrow and the WRs will have to win a few matchups. I feel like the TE and WR have made a decent number of plays when thrown contested passes (McKinley has had a few drops) but we just haven’t given them enough chances to make game changing plays down the field.
This will be our best chance of beating Clemson given the players they’ll be missing this game.
i don’t see it though. Our receivers are not going to be feared, as they are not very good at getting separation, and Clemson has some outstanding DBs. That will enable their defense to shut down our run game as well as spy Book.
On defense, our LBs are not making enough tackles except for JOK. And Etienne’s rush average may a bit down, but he’s in a different level from those backers. I also think McCloud is just average and Bracy too small for the Clemson talent.
Book’s experience vs their rookie QB greenness is an edge, I think, but their guy has superior athletic talent.
I’ll be pleasantly surprised if we win. Now’s the time because the ACC championship game will likely be a very different story.
“At least we’ll see them again in Charlotte!”
Not if we lose and Miami wins out! Let’s cheer for NC State to hold on to this halftime lead they’ve got (unless, actually, we lose very close tomorrow and then maybe avoiding an another loss ends up getting us into the playoff. CFP logic is very confusing).