It’s bowl season, that strange portion of college football where the weather here in New York is completely at odds with the type of weather we’ll see over the Holidays during these exhibition games. If you were busy finishing your gift shopping you might have missed the first bowl games this past weekend. Those featured a Tom Herman-less Houston team getting blown out by San Diego State and Bob Davie winning his first ever bowl game (and the Lobos second since 1961) over a 7-loss UTSA squad.
That’s a strong whiff of bowl game mania, right there.
Of course there will be more bowls. Many more bowls for you to consume in the coming days. As per usual most of them are nondescript and rather dull. I’ve selected the best 7 non-playoff bowls (or should I say my favorite?) based on my two main criteria: 1) Programs looking to cap off a great year where a loss could spoil momentum into the off-season 2) Matchups between two good teams offering hope for an entertaining game.
Russell Athletic Bowl
12/28/16
#16 West Virginia
The Mountaineers have flown under the radar all season long and probably with good reason–they are the lowest ranked F/+ Power 5 team (40th overall) that won at least 10 games prior to bowl season. Miami seems to be the inverse, the Hurricanes are a shocking 15th according to F/+ (only Auburn and LSU ranked higher among teams with 4 losses) but come into the post-season riding a 4-game winning streak.
Pick: Miami
West Virginia hasn’t felt for real this year and there’s a reason why they aren’t favored in this bowl game. Should they win it would equal their best record in 9 years. That kind of acclaim feels a little too big for Holgo’s britches right now. I think we’ll see Miami win, Kaaya comes back for his senior season, and the Canes head into 2017 as one of the favorites in the ACC.
Belk Bowl
12/29/16
Arkansas [+7] vs. #22 Virginia Tech
Virginia Tech feels a lot like their ACC brethren Miami–sneaky high in F/+ with a strong finish to the season featuring taking Clemson to the limit in the league championship game. Arkansas is in a weird place. Bielema’s seat is getting a wee bit warm and they’re sizable underdogs. I can’t imagine anyone in Fayetteville is going to be all that pleased with a 7-6 season by the Razorbacks.
Pick: Arkansas
I’m splitting the difference–Miami is the ACC Coastal team that will grab the off-season headlines while Virginia Tech is humbled a little bit. In truth, I love this matchup for the Hokies. This feels like a weird game where Arkansas struggling run game (2,099 yards in 2016 for a ManBall team!) goes off and we’re witnesses to an absurd shootout that ends in overtime.
Alamo Bowl
12/29/16
#12 Oklahoma State [+3] vs. #10 Colorado
You can’t take 10 wins away from Colorado (that really happened!) but the Buffs have to be careful. Losing two straight to end this miraculous season will probably feel terrible. They also had to swallow their pride as Oregon broke the bank for their DC Jim Leavitt and he’s already moved to Eugene. Not a great situation for facing one of the country’s most underrated quarterbacks in Mason Rudolph.
Pick: Oklahoma State
This is what Mike Gundy does, folks. He’s going to stay in Stillwater forever and when we look back at his career it’ll be shocking how many times he won 10 games. I’m also betting on Mike MacIntyre sadly faltering so that he heads into next year as a less attractive candidate on Notre Dame’s radar.
Sun Bowl
12/30/16
#18 Stanford [-3.5] vs. North Carolina
The Tar Heels lost a ton of momentum down the stretch losing to Duke and NC State. By the time this game is played they won’t have defeated a Power 5 team in almost 2 months. Oh, and head coach Larry Fedora has been rumored to be highly interested in several previously open jobs. Stanford comes in quietly on fire winning their last 5 games by an average of nearly 20 points. It’s also the last ride of Christian McCaffrey and a win would give David Shaw double-digit victories in 5 out of his 6 seasons on the Farm.
Pick: Stanford
Quarterback Mitch Trubisky still hasn’t decided whether he’s leaving for the NFL or not. This could be his final audition for the pros and a chance to secure his spot as the first quarterback off the board. I like the way Stanford has been playing since stabilizing their offense and a flight that’s 2 hours shorter time in the air than the Heels. In the weirdness of El Paso I’ll favor Stanford being the more prepared and invested team.
Orange Bowl
12/30/16
#6 Michigan [-6.5] vs. #11 Florida State
This is one of those bowls that feels like it should be a huge game. But each team has to be terribly disappointed to be here. Michigan was in line for a playoff spot and lost 2 out of its last 3 games. Florida State was every bit the favored playoff team before the season but lost 3 out of 6 during the middle of the year and have been well out of the national championship race for weeks. This has all the makings of a hugely disappointing game with two bummed out teams.
Pick: Michigan
The Seminoles have played pretty well down the stretch (4 straight wins, their last 3 by an average of 29 points) and I like the odds of either Dalvin Cook having a splendid final college game or Deondre Francois kicking off his 2017 Heisman campaign. However, Jim Harbaugh is a maniac and won’t sleep through December in order to win this game. I’m sure the Wolverines will be much more motivated, and that should be the key edge.
Cotton Bowl
1/2/17
#15 Western Michigan [+7.5] vs. #8 Wisconsin
The Broncos have taken down a pair of Power 5 teams (Northwestern & Illinois) this year and enter this game with a chance to cap off one of the best MAC seasons in history, or alternately, allow a huge portion of the country to write their success off with a loss. Wisconsin has been here before, this is their 7th major bowl game in just over 20 years–not a bad appearance rate. Nonetheless, the Badgers are still seeking their first major bowl victory since 1999. We have a fascinating matchup of the #22 S&P+ offense (Western) up against the #5 S&P+ defense (Wisconsin).
Pick: Western Michigan
There’s a 63 spot difference in defensive S&P+ between these teams, always take the defense in big games! Except, we’re not factoring in the motivational powers of Row the Boat. Plus, the trio of Terrell/Davis/Franklin are among the best playmakers Wisconsin has seen all year. I don’t think Fleck can afford to lose this game with USC and Michigan State to start next season. I think this could be the most entertaining game of the bowl season.
Rose Bowl
1/2/17
#9 USC [-6.5] vs. #5 Penn State
A couple of traditional powers back at it again. Penn State is seeking their first major bowl win since 2005 and USC is seeking their first since 2008 when they defeated the Nittany Lions in this same bowl game. Mid-season it didn’t even seem possible either of these teams could be here and yet we’ve got ourselves a nice little bowl game–I’d say the best non-playoff Rose Bowl since 2010.
Pick: USC
Penn State quarterback Trace McSorley’s chuck it deep strategy has paid off handsomely over his last two games. He’s posted 760 passing yards on just 54 attempts with 8 touchdowns! It took a huge performance just to get past a very modest Wisconsin offense in the Big Ten Title Game. It’s really difficult to see this hot streak continuing plus Penn State will be facing the best in-form offense they’ve played all year.
McCaffrey just took the Fournette route and announced he’s skipping the bowl game. Totally the right call for both of them, at arguably the most disposable of all the positions in the sport where RB’s are chewed up and discarded like it’s nothing. I wish for his sake Jaylon would have done the same last year.
Hooks, I agree… and I hate that I agree. I love the Bowl games and always believed they established some sort of relevance in the “overall picture”. I would love to see all the players on the field supporting their team mates, schools, fans and alumni but also understand these guys need to protect their primary asset.
Twelve months ago, I would have yelled that non-participating players were selfish and self-serving… the Jaylon injury really changed my thinking… right or wrong.
The other point I’ve seen made that swayed me on this has been about coaches–every coach who gets hired for a better job leaves his school before the bowl game, and we’ve come to expect that as natural and have no problem with it. So it’s hard for me to have a problem when a player makes the decision to forego a meaningless game and prepare for his next job. Add in Jaylon’s injury last year, and the fact that we’re talking about running backs, both of whom have put a tremendous amount of miles on their tires, and yeah.
Like you I also hate that I feel that way. Yes, bowls have always been “exhibitions” but they weren’t always meaningless. Things have meaning based on what value we assign, and back a generation ago, bowls (along with conference championships for everyone but us) meant a great deal. ND went into the bowls ranked 5th or 6th in 1977, beat the #1 team (Texas), and came out the other end #1. Now, the bowl for the #5 ranked team actually is a meaningless exhibition. When conference championships were the highest goal most teams could control (because in the pre-BCS era, your bowl was based on you conference tie), getting to the Rose Bowl or the Orange Bowl or Sugar Bowl was huge–national title hopes only came if circumstances broke right and you would be in position to be voted #1 after your bowl. I’m not saying that I think that system was “better” at all, but between the BCS at first and more so with the playoff, and add in that there are a gajillion bowls and 5-7 teams have the potential to go, and the value of bowl games has reduced to A. Are you in? (the championship) and B. woo 15 extra practices.
(also I’m not arguing—right now, anyway–for reducing the number of bowls, as it’s great for the little schools to get to go to the Bahamas or whatever. But it’s pretty meaningless as an “end of season reward for good play” when you can go to a bowl with a losing record.)
PJ approves of your picks.
If he wins, he’s next year’s Tom Herman. Of course, if he loses probably will still be next year’s Tom Herman.
He’ll need to beat one of USC or Sparty next year to be the next Tom Herman.
WMU may start the season 0-2, but should still reach double digit wins assuming the new QB situation works out (and that’s not a given).
Going 13-0 this season was amazing, but an 11-win regular season next year would be an even more impressive coaching job and would definitely put Fleck at the top of (almost) everyone’s wish list — despite his quirkiness.
In all seriousness, though, Terrell needs to play on point and the Broncos OL has to get some kind of push against the Wiscy front seven for the Broncos to win. They won’t be able to win if they have to rely solely on the Terrell-Davis connection.
Also, Broncos need to at least slow down the Wisconsin run game. I’m not worried about them getting beat through the air, but I am worried about them getting pushed around up front with undersized linemen (their 2 DEs are both like 245, I think). WMU’s rush defense has been suspect in a few games this year (ex: Kareem Hunt of Toledo rushing for 200 yards against them in the last week of the regular season).
“Terrell-Davis”….”Broncos”….
…Please tell me there’s an Elway on the roster.
Ha. Nope.
There is a Flacco, though.
Bob Davie went 9-4 this year. What just God allows that? It’s a crisis of faith for me.
Also, I’m super excited for Western Michigan vs. Wisconsin. My dad went to ND and then Wisconsin, family is from Wisconsin. I think he’ll be pulling for Fleck once he realizes that guy is THE COACH OF THE FUTURE!
HIRE BOB DAVIE 2018