The USA Today Coaches Poll came out last week with the Fighting Irish checking in at #9 which is the highest start for the program since Brian Kelly arrived in 2010. I was looking over the list of top teams and immediately a couple things popped into my head. One, there are a lot of shaky quarterback situations across the nation, including more than half of the top 8. Also, this has the feel of a season where we’re going to see a ton of movement in the polls and the Top 10 littered with 2 and 3-loss teams. Just a hunch on my part.
Just look at the opening weekend where 5 out of the top 9 face Top 30-ish teams right out of the gate. If you don’t have your quarterback situation sorted out good luck!
Before getting into the teams you should be leery of with their QB’s let’s lay out who is sitting in much better situations:
Clemson, Oklahoma, Ohio State, Notre Dame, Tennessee, Ole Miss, Houston, Iowa, Washington, Oklahoma State, Baylor, Louisville, and UCLA.
With the off-season at Baylor we can probably cross them off the list of true contenders. Seth Russell could still be really good but the Bears have much to overcome. Iowa through Oklahoma State have pretty solid situations but nothing great on a national scale–scratch them off, too.
Louisville and UCLA are really, really intriguing. From a quarterback perspective no one should be sleeping on these programs moving up and doing a lot of damage. By the end of the year, Josh Rosen and Lamar Jackson could be two of the most prolific signal callers in the country.
There’s no doubt that the top six teams above are broken up into two tiers as ranked. Clemson has a huge advantage for several reasons (Deshaun Watson being the best QB in the country, for one) including the fact that Ohio State and Oklahoma are guaranteed a loss since they play each other.
Notre Dame isn’t in a bad place, but you already knew that. Chad Kelly is likely to light up the scoreboard but I’m not sure the Rebels are going to reload while missing several offensive weapons from a year ago. I don’t think Josh Dobbs is in the conversation as one of the top quarterbacks so I’d sell the Vols being a playoff contender.
Now, here are the highly ranked teams with major questions at quarterback:
17 USC – Max Browne or Sam Darnold
Our rivals were supposed to name Browne the starter after the spring but it didn’t happen. Whether it’s a peek at their brutal schedule or several straight years of underachieving, the Trojans appear to be one of the few blue-chip talented teams who are actually being punished for not having stability at quarterback.
Clay Helton sure has a heck of a decision on his hands. He’s personally recruited both quarterbacks and knows in the back of his mind that Alabama could make his pick look really bad in the opener. He’s either going with the older, classic-looking USC pro-style quarterback or a far younger (gasp!) dual-threat quarterback.
16 Georgia – Brice Ramsey or Jacob Eason or Greyson Lambert
New head coach Kirby Smart is in a bit of a predicament. Georgia’s offense was steaming three days old Chinese food trash last year and his top running backs are recovering from injury–Sony Michel after a broken arm in July and Nick Chubb after a knee injury last October.
Lambert, who transferred over from Virginia last year, was horribly ineffective in 2015 and wasn’t trusted to throw the ball all that much–even for Georgia’s standards. Ramsey was a high 4-star recruit who is in his fourth year on campus with some some cameo appearances to his name. Then you have the No. 5 overall recruit in Eason who impressed in the spring game and probably wins the job at some point this year.
Early through fall camp Georgia has been rotating all three quarterbacks which isn’t a great sign.
14 TCU – Kenny Hill or Foster Sawyer
The Horned Frogs emergence at the Power 5 level since 2014 has largely been due to a revamped offense that’s pumped life into their residency within the Big 12. This year, they replace a ton on that side of the ball, including Trevone Boykin and his 81 touchdowns from 2014-15.
Sawyer was a high 3-star recruit and played minimally last year. Hill was oh so briefly a Heisman candidate early in 2014 before washing out at Texas A&M and leaving College Station. Decent options for sure but I’d be really surprised if either of these guys are not a significant step down from Boykin.
11 Michigan State – Tyler O’Connor or Damion Terry
Our second opponent on this list, we’ve gone over Michigan State’s program a few months ago as they are replacing an all-time school great in Connor Cook.
Most of the pre-season talk as the Spartans open camp is that both quarterbacks are going to play before Dantonio eventually settles on a permanent starter. Yeah, that doesn’t sound too promising. If there are predictions out there most say the “safer” choice and older O’Connor will play the most.
8 Michigan – Wilton Speight or John O’Korn
If we’re lucky Michigan’s quarterback play will be their major downfall in a season full of huge expectations. Still, the specter of Harbaugh’s magic teaching looms large. Former 5-star Shane Morris joins a long list of Hoke-era overrated busts and isn’t in the picture anymore. Thus, Michigan turns to low 3-star Houston transfer John O’Korn or another former 3-star in Speight. Both are tall, and stereotypical traditional Michigan-y quarterbacks.
O’Korn had a nice freshman season back in 2013 but opened 2014 in all sorts of bad ways eventually losing his job prior to leaving the Cougars. Speight played very minimally last season and is largely unproven. Michigan’s schedule is so easy that Harbaugh will have every opportunity to find the right guy but we can still hope for the worst.
7 Stanford – Keller Chryst or Ryan Burns
Our third opponent on the list and one in an eerily similar situation to Michigan State–replacing a productive school-record winning quarterback with a pair of talented but wholly inexperienced players. As I mentioned in my summer preview Stanford has earned the benefit of the doubt with their program as a whole, and despite the return of Heisman favorite Christian McCaffrey, they really are not set up to be THIS good in 2016.
An early absolutely brutal schedule isn’t likely to help, either. It’s just the Pac-12 is so wide open (Stanford is the only conference member in the Top 16 pre-season Coaches poll) that the Cardinal are kind of this high by default.
6 LSU – Brandon Harris
Alarm bells. Alarm bells, everywhere. The Bayou Bengals are perfectly set up for a national title run (17 returning starters!) except that pesky quarterback position. Third-year former high 4-star recruit Brandon Harris came to Baton Rouge with hyped expectations but struggled early in his career–it’s never easy playing as a true freshman–and couldn’t even make an impact when the Irish watched Anthony Jennings throw balls into the ground at the 2014 Music City Bowl.
Last year as the full-time starter Harris was…okay at best. He’s a good athlete but not to the point where he’s a difference maker with the ball in his hands. Plus, the system isn’t built around those skills. LSU has made tweaks but it’s doubtful Harris becomes a 800+ yard rusher. As a passer, he leaves a lot to be desired, especially with accuracy. About the best thing you can say is that he can improve and doesn’t turn the ball over that much. Maybe that’s good enough for 9 or 10 wins but I doubt they can topple Alabama and reach the playoff.
4 FSU – Sean Maguire or Deondre Francois
“If they can just get quality quarterback play” has pretty much summed up every Florida State season preview article this summer. I talked about their QB situation a lot in the Sneaky Good Games series where polar opposites are vying for the job. In keeping with the theme of several other top programs the schedule in the early portion of the season is not conducive to dealing with a quarterback controversy.
Ole Miss, Louisville, North Carolina, Miami, Clemson, and Florida all stand in the way to a national championship. This isn’t your older brother’s typical smooth Seminoles march to the ACC title game. They’ll need more than just decent quarterback play to sweep all of those teams–or even come away with just one loss.
1 Alabama – Cooper Bateman or Blake Barnett or David Cornwell or Jalen Hurts
Should we even concern ourselves with what happens with Alabama? Maybe!
First of all, there are so many options to sort through. Cornwell, a high 4-star redshirt sophomore, has been battling a foot injury in fall camp and has fallen behind the others. The job is likely to go redshirt junior Cooper Bateman (also a high 4-star recruit) who fits the profile well enough: game manager, takes care of the ball, let’s the other playmakers do the damage.
Things get interesting if the Tide were to turn to our good buddy Blake Barnett, now a redshirt freshman. Word out of Tuscaloosa is that he brings an enticing amount of athleticism but hasn’t been able to bring enough consistency to the passing game. Alabama has been the land of upperclassmen starting quarterbacks yet the big surprise since the start of the calendar has been the rise of early enrollee Jalen Hurts.
The Texan ran the scout team prior to Alabama’s run to the National Championship and wowed his teammates before playing well in the spring. It’s still a long-shot that he starts for the Tide but some are speculating that he’s every bit the athlete of Barnett with much more fluid and natural passing abilities. If it’s Bateman to start and he gets hurt Saban might trot out a true freshman this fall.
“Hot Take: 18 Stripes Believes 11-1 Irish will make CFP Final 4!
If this claim wasn’t audacious enough, they also believe QB trouble will spell doom for Alabama and Florida State. What about your own QB controversy Irish? Still bitter about recent losses to those 2 teams?”
Sorry I’m done. Trying to picture how some click-bait author would use this to their advantage. Maybe a Michigan blogger.
Still seeing our 3 toughest opponents on that list of QB troubles, can’t help but feel pretty excited about our QB situation and the season in general.
You need more question marks and social-media-friendly touches. Like “#HotTake: Does 18S believe 11-1 Irish will make the playoffs?” or “Will QB trouble spell doom for Bama and FSU?”
I agree, we seem well set up on offense and it seems that some of our key opponents will have some hurdles. I just wonder if we can clean up enough of our own issues to take advantage of it. I’m a glass half full guy, but there are still things that make me nervous.
You do this as well as, if not better, than anyone out there Eric. I love these types of articles from you. You seem to always look big picture.
I agree, we are sitting pretty good at quarterback. We just need to play to our talent level on defense, (somewhere around top 30?) and we can make some serious noise this year. What is our talent level on defense, compared to these other top ranked teams? I’m sure someone has done an article on this, but I don’t remember reading any.
Gee thanks!
Good article.
May I take a moment to say, “$#@& You, Gravatar!!!!!” It is a monstrous pain to try to put a picture on the name with WordPress. I have tried every $#@&ing combination of that 50-digit nuclear weapon release password code they made us choose to no avail. Hesitate to change my password due to the synapse strain that has already almost proven fatal. If you are logged in when you go to gravatar, why doesn’t the $#@&ing gravatar just keep you logged in???
Thanks, I feel better now.
Couple of things to note… One, I’m not sure if we can change the wording on the registration page (or, more accurately, I don’t know how to do it yet), but the 16-character password is a suggestion, not a requirement. You can make a shorter one. I think the actual minimum is 6 characters. If you hover over the “Howdy, [screen name]” in the upper right corner you can click Edit My Profile and change it from there.
Two, on Gravatar, although they’re now affiliated with WordPress, it’s actually a separate system so you need a Gravatar account in addition to your WordPress account. The idea with Gravatar was that you could have one place to manage your profile picture for a whole bunch of different sites and accounts. But Gravatar never became a universal resource, so it ends up being just an extra step for the handful of things that use it, like WordPress. Anyway, if you want to do that, just create a Gravatar account with the same email address that you used to sign up for the site – that’s how they link together. You only have to sign in to Gravatar when you want to add or change a profile picture, so you probably won’t need to do it too often.
There you go bein’ all helpful and stuff.
Bama without a QB just means they will lose in the first round of the playoffs. Sigh.
Better than being national champs again.