Identifying the sneaky good non-conference college football games with upset potential, high entertainment value, or intriguing story lines.

Florida State at South Florida

Last week featured the defending national champions possibly getting into a messy shootout with a Conference USA team. Today, we look at the 2013 champs facing an in-state program in a slowly developing rivalry.

South Florida has only been at the D-I level since 2001 and after joining the Big East in 2005 they started developing some momentum. From 2006 until 2010 the Bulls won 42 games and were becoming the “it” rising program in the Sunshine State with Florida State wandering in a post-Bobby Bowden wilderness, Miami in the beginning of their current decline, and the Gators just about to move on from the Urban Meyer era.

A lot of folks thought USF was about to take a major leap in the latter portion of the first decade of the aughts. To add to the momentum, in the first-ever meeting between FSU and USF it was the Bulls who came away with the 17-7 victory back in 2009. Florida State finished 7-6, but still.

Unfortunately, USF hit a 4-year slump beginning in 2011 and they hit it hard (well, except for THIS that day they had horseshoes falling out of every USF player) . The Bulls missed a bowl in each of the four seasons and ended up losing a total of 34 games. To start Willie Taggart’s 3rd season in 2015, USF got off to a 1-3 start with their coach squarely on the hot seat.

Things started to click, though. To finish the ’15 regular season the Bulls went 7-1 although they did lose their bowl game to Western Kentucky–the team featured in our first Sneaky Good Games installment.

Now, USF has some momentum heading into 2016 and 7 starters returning on each side of the ball. In some places, they are the favorites to win the AAC East division.

Be that as it may, USF will still be underdogs against Florida State. The Seminoles have 17 starters back–including 10 on offense–and despite questions marks at the quarterback position most are putting FSU squarely in the national championship conversation.

These teams met last year, too. The game was tied 7-7 at halftime but the Seminoles would go on to own the second half. Running back Dalvin Cook absolutely exploded while finishing with 266 rushing yards on 30 carries on the way to a 34-14 victory.

As I mentioned in the first installment it’s the layout of schedules that can make for some sneaky good games. Here again a national power like Florida State isn’t doing itself any favors while opening itself up to a smaller school to deliver an upset. South Florida opens the season with Towson, Northern Illinois, and a road trip to Syracuse. The Seminoles have a brutal stretch through early October with USF smack dab in the middle of a road trip to Louisville and hosting North Carolina.

South Florida’s best hope is that by week four the Seminoles are in a media frenzy-fed quarterback conundrum coming off losses to Ole Miss and Louisville. Most love the potential of former high 4-star redshirt freshman Deondre Francois and he’ll battle senior Sean Maguire (who took half the snaps last year post-Golson) for the job. In essence, two completely different quarterbacks to make a controversy at the position plenty explosive.

If Florida State fumbles at the USF 1-yard line and the Bulls take it back, it’s definitely game on.