We have no choice but to put a lot of stock into the recruiting rankings from various sites. Well, maybe not ESPN these days. However, the 247 Composite is something, at least on a national level, you have to more or less trust is going to correctly identify the best players in the country, especially at the top of the food chain.
What makes a down cycle at a certain position? I was curious because you often hear that one position or another are strong or weak for the year but we usually don’t see a lot of talk about the numbers behind things. So, let’s talk about some of them.
Note: I compiled these numbers in mid-May right before 247 added the On3 rankings into their Composite. So, the numbers in these articles will be a little off compared to the live rankings you can now research.
We’ll be looking at the mean, median, and percent of blue-chips at each position between 2023 and 2022, with a comparison to the 2010 cycle, as well.
247 Composite scores used throughout.
QUARTERBACK
Mean
2023: 0.9460
2022: 0.9363
2010: 0.9235
Median
2023: 0.9379
2022: 0.9300
2010: 0.9083
Blue-Chip Percent
2023: 5.00%
2022: 5.72%
2010: 6.62%
This current cycle certainly has all the hallmarks of being a strong cycle at quarterback. It’s pretty top-heavy, too. Both 2022 and 2023 had 4 quarterbacks who were Composite 5-stars but all 4 of the current 2023 cycle are ranked higher than 2022 cycle’s 2nd-best in Connor Weigman (Texas A&M signing). Of course, Arch Manning being a generational talent atop 2023 has a perceived effect of 2023 being super strong.
There’s more of a steep drop-off in talent for 2023, though. The 13th through 16th ranked quarterbacks for 2022 are all ranked between 200 and 250 nationally. For 2023, those same placed quarterbacks are all worse than 250th and the 16th quarterback is 324th in the country. Perhaps this signals there could be a hidden gem in the lower blue-chip areas for 2022, maybe someone like Steve Angeli? He was the No. 21 overall quarterback last cycle and barely a 4-star but he was 47 spots higher in the national rankings compared to the current No. 21 quarterback in 2023.
I’d need to do a lot more research but I wonder if sometime around the 2010’s we saw recruiting sites overemphasizing quarterbacks, handing out too many 4-star status, and if we’re starting to see a pull back a bit? I’d also wonder if the proliferation of passing that’s trickling down from the NFL is having an effect too? For example, back in 2006 you could probably get away with ranking someone as a 4-star if they were 6’1″ with great athleticism but super raw as a passer. I have a feeling those type of players aren’t getting the benefit of the doubt anymore, plus high schools are throwing the ball a ton compared to the past, as well.
If you were wondering, 2024 also looks loaded yet again with 10(!) quarterbacks inside the current top 100 while 2022-23 combined have15 such quarterbacks ranked that high nationally. CJ Carr is currently 5th among those quarterback but many recruitniks think he’ll be in a fight to move up a little higher.
RUNNING BACK
Mean
2023: 0.9255
2022: 0.9265
2010: 0.9397
Median
2023: 0.9140
2022: 0.9193
2010: 0.9323
Blue-Chip Percent
2023: 6.31%
2022: 8.85%
2010: 8.64%
As we’d expect, there seems to be a trend of devaluing running backs as the years progress. Still, 2022 was a very strong class overall for running backs with 9(!) more blue-chips compared to the current 2023 cycle. It was probably a very smart move by Notre Dame to take 2 running backs from the 2022 class in retrospect.
Additionally, Notre Dame “lost” the verbal of a non-blue chip running back in a much more top-heavy talented 2023 cycle where the talent drops off very quickly. For example, former commit Sedrick Irvin Jr. is currently the 28th best running back but if he was in the 2022 class he’d be the 35th rated tailback based on his overall national ranking.
The new Irish commit Jayden Limar is the top running back for 2023 in both the mountain and pacific time zones, which is significant. But, if you slot him into the 2022 class he drops 5 spots in the positional rankings. So, it makes sense for Notre Dame to continue sniffing around for another higher rated running back during this cycle.
WIDE RECEIVER
Mean
2023: 0.9329
2022: 0.9325
2010: 0.9312
Median
2023: 0.9280
2022: 0.9207
2010: 0.9235
Blue-Chip Percent
2023: 13.42%
2022: 14.58%
2010: 13.25%
I expected the mean and median scores to be a lot higher recently than in 2010, although the sport has been focusing on the importance of receivers for a long time. Or, perhaps 2010 was just a really strong year. Taking a quick look that cycle seems to have a ton of busts. Our very own TJ Jones (10th wideout from the class, much higher than I remembered) had one of the best careers from that cycle.
What pops out is that last cycle had 57 blue-chips, 7 more than the current 2022 cycle, and Notre Dame only signed 1 of them. That’s a big old oof of a miss in recruiting.
Obviously, Notre Dame is going to try and make it up in the 2023 cycle. With the commitment of 2024 5-star quarterback CJ Carr attention will quickly turn to the wideouts in that class, too. It’s early days but right now only 40 wide receivers have blue-chip status for 2024, a number that will likely go up at least a little bit.
Hi Eric,
How deep did you go in the classes, for your mean, median, etc. I assume it is Blue Chips only due to the relatively high numbers?
I like looking at this kind of analysis, because as you point out, the 4th best QB in one cycle may be better rated than the 2nd best QB in another cycle. Which also means that depending on a teams needs, they may get most of the recruits at their selected positions that they wanted and still end up as 4th or 5th in the team rankings because the team needs happened to be an off year for the positions they were pressing hard for that particular year.
That was the sad state of affairs we had under Del Alexander. If not for Chip Long being at GT, I’m not sure there was a power five program out there that would hire him.
Yeah, blue chips only. I guess I forgot to mention that!