Well, it’s time to see how well this 2023 Notre Dame team responds to adversity. A week after a soul-crushing loss to Ohio State at the last second, the program packs up for North Carolina and heads to Duke for a primetime night game with ESPN College GameDay on campus. This isn’t just any old normal and historically poor Duke, either. It’s an improved Blue Devils program led by former Notre Dame defensive coordinator Mike Elko.
Duke is ranked no. 17 in the AP Poll this week and have won their last 6 games stretching back to last season. What a world!
Notre Dame (-6) at Duke
Wallace Wade Stadium
Durham, North Carolina
Date: Saturday, September 30, 2023
Time: 7:30 PM ET
TV: ABC
Series: 5-2-0 Notre Dame
On the surface, this looks like a very challenging game for Notre Dame. They have to bounce back from an emotional loss and will be coming up against a resurgent Duke program with very little to lose. It’s a tough spot for the Irish, but I think there’s plenty of hope that this is a good matchup for the visitors.
Duke’s Offense
When the new Duke coaching staff came in place back in 2022, Kevin Johns was hired as the new offensive coordinator after spending 3 seasons in that role with the Memphis Tigers. So far, he’s experienced a ton of success with the Blue Devils and is coaching a veteran lineup with 8 starters back from a year ago.
Johns runs an offense that has been spreading things out more and allowing his quarterback the space to make quick decisions in the passing game and do damage on the ground as a runner.
On the left side of their offensive line, pre-season All-American and 2022 1st-team All-ACC senior left tackle Graham Barton (6-5, 314) returns for his 4th year of starting. Next to him, 6th-year senior Maurice McIntyre (6-2, 314) comes in with 24 career starts at left guard. Additionally, 5th-year senior Jacob Monk (6-3, 320) was moved from starting center last year to right guard this year.
At center, Harvard graduate transfer Scott Elliott (6-3, 297) is new to the lineup as is Stanford graduate transfer Jake Hornibrook (6-5, 300) at right tackle.
There’s no doubt that junior quarterback Riley Leonard (6-4, 212) is the straw that stirs the drink for this offense and is a huge part of Duke’s recent success on the football field.
Riley is a problem with his running ability.
Leonard made 1 start as a true freshman back in 2021 and over his last 17 games as full-time starter he’s amassed 317 completions at 65.5% accuracy with 22 touchdowns and just 6 interceptions. More importantly, over that timespan, Leonard has 937 rushing yards at 6.1 yards per carry and 17 touchdowns on the ground.
We can expect Leonard to be a co-leading rusher on Saturday, although Duke has returning running back and 5th-year senior Jordan Waters (6-0, 219) and his 1,129 career yards back in the lineup plus experienced junior backup Jaquez Moore (5-10, 201) will be in the mix along with true freshman Peyton Jones (5-10, 201) out of Norfolk, Virginia.
The Blue Devils are without starting wide receiver and 5th-year senior Eli Pancol (6-3, 205) who has 912 career receiving yards and is out long-term following August surgery for a lower body injury.
Duke’s top 2 receivers from last year are back in 5th-year senior Jalon Calhoun (5-11, 191) who has 2,618 career receiving yards, 218 punt return yards, and was 3rd-team All-ACC last year, plus junior Jordan Moore (6-0, 195) who has 902 receiving yards since the beginning of 2022. Also, redshirt sophomore Sahmir Hagans (5-10, 185) comes in with 10 career starts and is also another weapon with 11 catches this season.
We’ll see a decent amount of 11 personnel with senior Nicky Dalmolin (6-4, 241) in his second season of starting at tight end. He’s caught 30 passes since 2022 began.
Duke’s Defense
Mike Elko has been using a 4-2-5 defense and is breaking in a new coordinator this season after Robb Smith left the team for personal reasons and is now an analyst at Penn State. He was replaced by Tyler Santucci who worked with Elko at Texas A&M and Wake Forest in addition to at Notre Dame when he was a defensive analyst for the Irish back in 2017.
Duke uses quite a bit of bodies on defense, more than I expected.
Up front, 5th-year senior R.J. Oben (6-4, 260) is a returning starter at defensive end with 10.5 career sacks and the lanky sophomore Vincent Anthony (6-6, 246) is already in his second year of starting. Duke will also use 6th-year senior Anthony Nelson (6-2, 258) on the edge after he transferred from Harvard back before 2022.
Elko is only 46 years old.
On the interior, our former friend Ja’Mion Franklin (6-2, 309) is in his 6th year following a 2021 transfer from Notre Dame and starting for the second year in a row with 4.5 tackles for loss at Duke. They also have 5th-year senior and 3-time captain DeWayne Carter (6-3, 305) back as the other starter at tackle with prior All-ACC honors and 22 career tackles for loss coming into Saturday. Senior Aeneas Peebles (6-1, 286) adds depth with 8.5 career tackles for loss and redshirt sophomore Aaron Hall (6-4, 277) has gained size and moved to the interior from end.
Senior middle linebacker Dorian Mausi (6-2, 233) will be making his 25th career start this weekend and has made 153 tackles to date. Redshirt sophomore Nick Morris (6-3, 231) is playing more this year and has made 19 tackles already. At the weak-side spot, Notre Dame will see plenty of redshirt sophomore Tre Freeman (6-0, 231) with 21 tackles this season and 2022 Columbia grad transfer Cam Dillon (6-2, 234) in the mix, as well.
Senior safety Jaylen Stinson (5-8, 177) isn’t very big but returns as starter and picked up pre-season All-ACC honors with 7 pass break-ups in his career. Junior nickel corner Brandon Johnson (5-10, 180) also returns as starter with 18 career starts and 12 tackles for loss along with 10 passes broken up since 2022. The Blue Devils also added 2022 Northwestern starting safety Jeremiah Lewis (5-11, 197) to the program while sophomore Terry Moore (6-1, 196) has transitioned from running back and is seeing the field at safety, too.
Duke hit the portal for help at corner where 6th-year senior Al Blades, Jr. (6-1, 195) arrived from Miami and 7th-year senior Myles Jones (6-4, 194) came over after a lengthy career at Texas A&M. That’s a lot of size and added experience for the Blue Devils.
Also helping at corner is sophomore Chandler Rivers (5-10, 178) who made 6 starts as a true freshman last year and currently leads the team in tackles, plus junior Joshua Pickett (6-0, 191) who broke up 7 passes last year and added an interception in week 2 this year.
Prediction
I can’t believe I’m typing this but Saturday is a really tough game for Notre Dame against Duke. For people who haven’t really been paying attention to college football very much over the last couple years that might seem crazy. For those who have been paying attention, they’ve seen this game coming for a long time, especially right after Ohio State.
For certain, Mike Elko has entered the Doing Good Things™ approval rating territory and has a chance this weekend to take things up another level–even becoming one of the most sought after young-ish head coaches in the business (even though he looks 97 years old).
| STAT | ND | DUKE |
|---|---|---|
| FEI | 10 | 22 |
| FEI O | 12 | 32 |
| FEI D | 13 | 24 |
While Elko hasn’t beaten a ranked team yet (now that Clemson isn’t ranked anymore) the overall resume is pretty impressive given Duke’s historical lack of success. He’s 13-4 overall, has won 6 straight, and those 4 losses last year came by a combined 16 points. Plus, unlike say NC State who had decent win/loss records in recent years but not great advanced stats love, Duke is top 25 in both FEI (22nd, see above) and in SP+ (24th overall).
So, this is far from a push over opponent.
3 Keys to Victory
#1 Avoid the Let Down
Physically, I think there’s enough to worry about with Notre Dame turning right around and coming back for another high profile night game following the Ohio State loss. That’s made worse by the potential loss of top wide receiver Jayden Thomas who is questionable with a strained hamstring.
Mentally, I would hope the Irish have put the past behind them and come ready to play at a high level. Although, I will say this Duke team is pretty frisky and a sudden 14-3 lead in the 2nd quarter for the home team causing a meltdown for the Irish fan base wouldn’t shock me.
#2 Keep the Duke Defense Off-Balanced
Duke’s defense was pretty solid against the run last year and so far their traditional stats in this area are a bit worse than 2022. However, their pass defense has taken a massive step forward (4th nationally in passer rating!) with the caveat that they really haven’t played a veteran quality quarterback yet. Nevertheless, the Blue Devils have jumped way up in the FEI defensive rankings so much so that this side of the ball is now rated better than their offense.
If we trust the numbers, this should be a game where Notre Dame has decent success on the ground but maybe gets frustrated a little bit through the air. I think it’ll be important to stay balanced, avoid costly mistakes, make Duke test the Irish offensive line (they haven’t been very disruptive in the backfield this year), and believe you’ll eventually make a few big plays on the way to a win.
#3 Make Leonard Beat You With His Arm
A few weeks ago, some places were worried that NC State’s Brennan Armstrong was capable of running all over the Irish. True, Armstrong can be a high volume runner at times (1,492 career yards) but he’s not very explosive at 3.6 yards per carry. Riley Leonard for Duke feels a bit different–he’s averaging 5.6 yards per carry over his career and 8.2 YPC so far this season. At 6’4″ he’s able to escape the pocket and run for big gains in a way that will really test Notre Dame’s containment.
Not that’s not a mustache on Duke’s helmet bumper, it’s this dumb hand gesture.
Duke has a really shifty and quick receiving corps and it’ll be crucial to tackle well in space. Riley is getting buzz for the NFL (the esteemed NFLDraftBuzz.com has him ranked 8th right now among 2024 eligible quarterbacks behind Michigan’s J.J. McCarthy and ahead of LSU’s Jayden Daniels) but this isn’t the type of offense that should be threatening Notre Dame with medium-to-long passing plays downfield to tall, physical receivers.
In general, this is not an explosive passing offense for the Blue Devils and I’d expect the Irish to really pull up the safeties and create a lot of loaded boxes to contain their run game and limit Leonard’s scrambling.
There’s a decent chance Notre Dame comes out with their hair on fire and dominates this game. However, their response to adversity last year in Freeman’s first season (Marshall, California, and UNLV to a certain extent) was far from impressive and with Duke’s young history under Elko of keeping things close this should be a matchup decided late.
I’m putting my faith in freeman continuing his trend of adapting after adversity, the fellas get the W, 24-20.
I’ve taken a week long break overall, took the rest of the weekend off from twitter, avoided 247, all podcasts. The only website i’ve read is this one. Think I’m gonna extend it through this weekend. Just need a break. West coast guy here but we have birthday party for all the kids this weekend at 3pm so think i’ll just do that and check espn for scores.
Big picture i’d believe anything could happen this weekend. duke by double digits, nd close, nd by 20+. Last weekend I said the game reminded me a lot of georgia 2017 which now obviously means nd needs to start kicking some ass. A loss this weekend though and 7-5/8-4 becomes quite possible which is depressing as hell.
Didn’t mention my wife dropped my son at a friends house last week then took the girls to the park and dinner so I watched the game solo for the first time in forever last week. just made it that much more painful.
who am I kidding? i’ll buddy up with a dad get the nd game on and ignore everyone else at the birthday party
I’m right there with you, didnt ingest any other ND media outside of this site. My ravenous consumption of football related hoopla is directly correlated to ND results.
Outside of my dad, this is the only notre dame collective with which I feel comfortable speaking my mind; I have to assume I was on some NegativeDowner Nation no-fly lists in the early to mid 20-teens.
Elko is a good coach and Duke is a good team. However, they’re still an ACC opponent that we’re significantly more talented and statistically better than. ND will have an advantage on every down. Furthermore, ND is experienced at handling this type of ACC team. We just did it a couple weeks ago against NC State. I expect the Standard Issue ACC Crusher Plan. Just run these guys over and then hit ‘em with play action. It’s not complicated.
I’m glad we’re on the road this week. No negative “here we go again” feedback loop from the home crowd, and Freeman’s teams have played better on the road than at home.
36-17 Irish.
It’s entirely possible that NCSU and Ohio State are far and away the toughest fronts we play all season and we managed to settle in and grind them down in the run game very well
Duke has gotten pushed around not just by Clemson but by some of their cupcake teams
Could be a fun day to be a ND runningback
Really wondering if they’re still planning on playing a 4-2-5 and putting a 180lb nickel out there with Estime.
reasons we should be optimistic
being serious Duke is a masterclass in coaching by Elko and Riley Leonnard is for real but if Clemson’s OL could open up holes like they did……..
I’m getting serious 2017 post UGA “Punish everyone we play” vibes right now and I’m beyond excited
ND 38
Duke 10
I haven’t been able to shake the feeling all week that ND is going to beat Duke very easily. Like three-scores easily. I’m fully prepared to look stupid on this, but this is an opportunity to show Freeman and staff’s growth and I suspect they’re going to take advantage.
I’m with you, so we can look stupid together. To be frank, I think the general reaction to the Ohio State loss bordered on hysterical. Yeah, the 10 men thing was incompetent but that’s an easy fix — assign a coach to count to 11 and improve communication on the sidelines. This team has not shown any major, fundamental deficiencies. I know moral victories don’t count, but we just outplayed the only non-southern team that’s significantly more talented than ND.
Nor are playoff hopes dead. Last year, Ohio State got blown out at home in the last week of the regular season, didn’t win their division or their conference, and made the playoffs anyway.
Ohio State has made 2 CFPs after failing to win their division and made a third after playing 6 games.
But remember, OHIO AGAINST THE WORLD!
Rigged, or very unfair! Many such cases
I’ve seen a decent amount of predictions similar to this one. Mid 20’s to mid 30’s for ND and a 1 score win for ND. Count me out, I’m still chugging the Freeman Kool-Aid and think we score 49 or 56 points. I know it’s not as easy as a videogame, but just want some ND coach to realize that it’s not a mortal sin to run up the score on your opponent. ND and the coach are going to be the bad guys if they win close, lose close, or win big so you might as well win big.
I think they need to continue to take strikes down the field and Hartman needs to put the ball out to Merriweather and have him go make a play. I was in the stadium last week and I felt like there were several 1on1 matchups that he needed to put it out there. Truth is, ND is likely going to have to score 40+ to beat USC so might as well get that practice in now and if ND starts putting up 45+ a game and blowing teams out they will firmly be in the playoff picture.
Yea, it’s just hard to score that many points with so much running of the football. They need the big plays from the passing game to score those points and I’m not sure they are going to force them – esp. without Thomas.
We gotta be hard! We’re playing doctorate students!
Gotta be hard? This is not the Duke lacrosse team we’re playing.
But yes some bizarre elderly and Ivy League transfers. Only 2 four stars on their squad. Talent gap is massive and I think we get it done 30-20 with some overly stressful moments.
I would love to echo what some of the other commenters are saying and pick ND by double digits, but this game gives me bad vibes. Duke under Elko has yet to lose by more than eight points against anyone and I don’t know if ND is good enough at receiver yet to hit those big passing plays that will be key to blowing this one open. Also I hate to say it but Hartman is due for an interception at this point and Duke has a good secondary.
Ultimately I think this will remind people of 2015 Temple. There are many parallels, biggest game in the history of their program (supposedly), first time having College Gameday, night game against an up-and-coming coach, etc. We are the better team but play unfocused for much of the evening which lets them get the jump on us going into the 4th quarter. However, just like in 2015 our talent will take over and get us a close win.
26-21 Irish
Mike Elko hire for Duke is paying off, I’m guessing they won’t have him for much longer.
Duke has some long toothed veterans, this is the strength of their team, I’m curious if this is like Northwestern, where they have a good season every 4 years or so as all their talent seems to coalesce into a competent team, or if it is Elko building something at Duke.
Who would have thought this possible 4 or 5 years ago?
I’m thinking we should have a similar game to NC State, however Duke’s offense seems a bit more competent and will possess the ball for longer. Elko will want to limit possessions for ND and play a “Burn” offense. I think this game will be closer than NC State, but ND’s talent will win out. Freeman learns from last week and takes some first quarter points in field goal range. Prediction: ND 27 – Duke 17
To your last point, I do think we need to develop a more coherent go for it/kick the FG strategy. It seems like we keep getting into tough decisions on the opponent’s 35 yard line, flipping a coin, and guessing wrong like 80% of the time. Given our offensive talent, I’d be OK with almost always going for it, but we need to be setting that situation up in earlier downs and being better prepared to run real plays on fourth down.
I honestly don’t know what to think about the game right now. Agree the likeliest outcome is we escape with a win, but if we figure out that we should be playing faster and using more play action/taking more shots I think we could win by four touchdowns. I’m just not sure Freeman or Parker want that.
Did you see Jamie U show stats that Hartman is not very good in the play action? He was suggesting that maybe this is one those things that Hartman has to develop coming from Wake. Just an interesting tidbit given that just about every QB is better with play action but at least with a small sample size currently Hartman does not seem to be better but significantly worse.
That’s 100% a mustache. Do they know that a hand sign for devil horns like… already existed? 🤘🤘🤘
I’m still smarting from last weekend and need some healing. I hope we play angry (but under control) and win by at least two TDs.
Folks, is USC…not that good? They seem like the final form of a Lincoln Reilly team, a fantastic playmaker at quarterback surrounded by good skill players who end up in a shootout every week because of an atrocious defense.
You are 100% correct. ND has already played their toughest game, by far. USC obviously has the offense to get in a shoot out with anyone, but ND has also proven they can score at will against USC’s level of defense.
My knee jerk reaction to this game is that Rudolph must be added to the list of coaches who should move on after this year (Golden, Washington, O’Leary)