4th and 16. The 2023 season, not to mention a potential firestorm week the likes of which Marcus Freeman has never seen, hung in the balance Saturday night at Duke.
And Sam Hartman worked his magic.
You have to believe Hartman took it personally when he came up short, literally (in the first quarter) and figuratively, in key moments last week. This time, Hartman took off and, incredibly, got 18 yards and the first down.
MAKE A PLAY 10#GoIrish☘️ pic.twitter.com/7lDIpLPpFX
— Notre Dame Football (@NDFootball) October 1, 2023
And then Audric Estime took it to the house. Notre Dame wins, 21-14.
(Footnote – this game ended Hartman’s 35-game streak with a touchdown pass. I’m sure he does not care.)
Some disjointed thoughts:
The final drive bailed out a disgustingly ugly game
The question all week was how Notre Dame would respond. I myself said we’d learn a ton about how Marcus Freeman handled a new kind of adversity. The verdict – this team has guts, but holy crap was some of it awful.
The pre-snap penalties – I lost track of how many – were just inexcusable. Two false starts on the center (the center?), lining up offsides at least twice, another missed field goal, whatever in God’s name Chris Tyree was trying to do on that punt…this was not the game of a well-coached, focused team. So in that respect, there remain a bunch of questions.
Questions like: Is the light ever going to turn on for Tobias Merriweather? Why couldn’t an offensive line that largely pushed around Ohio State create nearly as much running room against Duke? How on earth do you even think to look for targeting on a totally innocous-looking quarterback keeper?
But imagine trying to answer those questions after handing yet another program a signature moment at Notre Dame’s expense, something this team has majored in over the past 25 years. At least ND managed not to do that.
Howard Effing Cross
A week or two ago, our writer’s room noticed that Howard Cross was Pro Football Focus’ top-rated defensive tackle this year to date. He is the only DT in the country to be rated in the top 10 against both the pass and the run. The reaction was, mostly, bemusement.
Cross? Him? We haven’t really seen much of him. Really?
Well, now we get it. Thirteen tackles would be a really impressive total for a linebacker. For a defensive tackle it’s basically unheard of. And Cross made his presence known on the final defensive play of the game, knocking the ball loose from Riley Leonard for a fumble that ND – FINALLY, after an incomprehensible 10 fumbles this season without a recovery – fell on to secure the win.
An unfortunate end to a great game. Notre Dame’s Howard Cross strip sacks Duke QB Riley Leonard for a game-clinching fumble.
On his way to the ground, Leonard gets his ankle twisted and is eventually taken off of the field. pic.twitter.com/sqTZ0yNxSg
— The Comeback (@thecomeback) October 1, 2023
(And by the way, he apparently played the game with a sinus infection.)
Unfortunately, the play also resulted in what looked like a serious ankle injury for Leonard. No one wanted to see that, and hopefully the Duke signal-caller will end up being alright. I’m sure he wanted to play better Saturday, but he certainly displayed resilience and game toughness at major moments.
Mitchell Evans has officially arrived
Without Jayden Thomas or Jaden Greathouse, the Notre Dame receiver room desperately needed a boost. The hope was it would come from Merriweather or Tyree. No go on either of those. Instead, Evans delivered, nearly going for 100 yards in the first half alone and seemingly coming up with a big catch whenever it was needed.
After the NC State game it appeared for all the world Holden Staes was about to make his name as the next great Notre Dame tight end, with the less explosive Evans lost in the shuffle. But Evans, already a key factor in the running game, has emerged as an incredible safety valve for Hartman of late. He evokes memories of John Carlson or Anthony Fasano, finding his spot and grabbing the ball seemingly no matter what. (His ridiculous circus catch early in the game wasn’t quite as good as his Ohio State grab, but it goes right there on his highlight reel.)
MITCHELL EVANS REMET ÇA ! ☘️
Quel catch à une main.
pic.twitter.com/sujPr45HyD— The Trick Play – NCAA/CFB (@TheTrickPlayFR) October 1, 2023
Exhale
We were very close, depressingly close to a reckoning for the Marcus Freeman era. Notre Dame was up 13-0 at one point in this one and probably ought to have been up at least 10 more (of course, given that Duke missed two makeable field goals, I’m sure they have their own regrets) and then they got swept under a wave of Duke momentum. It was a near-disaster that the Irish averted through sheer nerve.
I recall the motto of 2021 was to survive to the bye week after the first two weeks created white-knucklers. Notre Dame won’t have that luxury. They’ll face a probably ranked Louisville in a similar situation to tonight’s Duke game next week, and then Southern Cal comes calling the week after. If the Irish are to make themselves heard in the postseason picture, they’ll have to be much better than they were tonight.
Karma in two pictures:
Nature is healing.
Last week we lost a game we should have won, tonight we won a game we should have lost. I prefer the latter
FWIW, SP+ had ND at 80% win expectancy last night. although you have to imagine multiple explosive plays and the forced fumble in the last 2 minutes tipped that a bit
Actually we had slightly favorable turnover luck in this game – one fumble recovery out of two fumbles for each team, one INT against two PBUs versus zero INTs against five PBUs for Duke. The fumble recovery rate of 50% is as expected for each team but the INT/PBUs are slightly “lucky” in our favor; the expected ratio is one INT for every 4-5 PBUs, so our defense was +0.5 in INT luck and Duke’s was -1.
Multiple explosive plays definitely helped the postgame win expectancy, as they should.
Left a wedding reception at 13-7 partly because I could see a possible future where it was best for me not to be at a wedding reception. I arrived home just in time to see them overturn the punt that bounced out at the 1 yard line and was clearly correct.
Glad we won in the end. Now we just have to play the biggest game ever hosted at Louisville next week. Easy game.
Did you mean the original call on being out at the one was correct, or the reversal? I had the sound off. Looked to me like the ref’s first call was correct.
He meant he was correct about leaving the wedding reception.
By rule the ACC refs weren’t even supposed to review the punt, apparently only whether it touches the pylon is reviewable. But #goacc.
Yeah, Andy correctly interpreted my poorly written sentence.
Roger!
My theory that the ACC is out to strong arm us into joining only grows stronger
Why would we join a conference that habitually f*cks us over on calls? It’s a terrible strategy.
The Scots have about a decade period with the English (mid-16th century) called the Rough Wooing.
Seems similar
It’s been fun trying to guess which horrific mistake the refs are going to make on a weekly basis.
The ref’s first call was out at the 1. However, it appears the ball did go over the pylon, which the review then correctly remedied – except that the review process itself wasn’t technically allowed. So, it should have been spotted at the 1, as it was initially ruled, even though the red incorrectly ruled it as such.
Much better to be asking “what the hell is wrong with this team” after a win than a loss.
Realizing we had a couple receivers out: woo baby is it starting to look like we have a bad offensive coordinator. I think I miss Tommy Rees, incredibly?
Rees had his fair share of stinkbombs as OC. I’m not sure what to pin on whom tonight as far as the offense goes, but I didn’t see any play calls that stuck out to me as being stupid. Parker can’t make the OL open holes.
Of course, 21 points isn’t good enough – but at least it was tonight.
I mean, working backwards, the touchdown from Estime was a stupid playcall! We spiked the ball on first down at the 30, then ran up the middle – which had not been working all game, and he kept coming back to unsucessfully over and over and over again – with 37 seconds left and only one timeout?!? What was that? Either it was a terrible playcall that worked or Freeman was playing for a ~45 yard field goal from our inaccurate kicker, which is also very bad!
Basically the definition of “bad process; good outcome”.
TBF, I think ND Twitter is largely in agreement that Hartman called that play because it seemed like the play wasn’t coming in quickly enough.
I mostly kid, because even if that’s true that is even worse for Parker.
I mean, that play was #chaos. It’s clear the call came in way late and possibly not at all. They’re told to huddle, not huddle, Hartman throws his hands up, and we run a head scratching play that somehow works.
Must be because it’s 6 am over here, but once again I am not in full agreeance … The return to the run is important for this team and we were starting to get more push as the game went on. We wound up not being able to do much with those several 2nd and 6s, partly because nobody else was getting separation except our tight end.
Or….Parker is secretly a genius. He knew we needed to run unsuccessfully between the tackles on 2nd down 10x before we’d succeed on the 11th. /s
I honestly think Parker’s been doing a good job myself. The “couple of receivers” is actually more than that out, with Greathouse’s late scratch being the final straw. Added on top of having a very thin receiver group from last year, as I think is widely acknowledged. And oh my goodness, Merriweather is just completely MIA — in fact worse, he damn near cost us the game with the OPI.
Much more concerning to me was our vaunted O-line not being able to do much with Duke’s big interior. But I do think we can give Elko a ton of credit for that defense.
Del is going to end up having cost us a half decade+ of wide receiver play
Hahaha no to wanting Tommy back. Heavens no
To be clear: I don’t want Tommy back. It’s just that at this I’d pretty clearly take him over Parker. I’d prefer somebody other than either.
I would still much rather have Parker both because I think he’s at least as good and because no one is trying to sell me on him being actually great
I believe Mike Sanford is available.
JFC no on Rees, not ever again.
Random thoughts while watching a little popped up on some sodas.
-Tobias needs to make some plays, no doi. Need to keep taking strikes downfield throughout the game.
-actually probably could of used more screen plays, the irony I know
-offense was bad. O line stunk, thought Hartman was meh for most of the game. Flores is a gamer, missed Greathouse another gamer. Evans monster again. Tyree with the best accidental seal block of the year on the Estime GW TD.
-don’t like Golden, but save those complaints for post USC
-Cam Hart never going to play in the NFL if he’s going to shy away from contact all year
-it’s a W and if the name is Michigan State, Florida, or Tennessee we’re all calling a great W. The FEI was all positive to Duke so we shouldn’t be too shocked.
Final thought – I’m going to stop predicting ND to bury opponents and putting points in bunches. That’s on me
I have a feeling that the sheer gutsy way we hung in and came though at the end was the best way for us to bounce back from last week.
I had zero confidence that we could move the ball into even long fg range. I’m glad Hartman had other ideas
-It seemed to me that MF was arguing with the ref early on that the Duke defense was clapping or something, causing the snap infractions.
-Thought the performance of the interior OL last week was a sign of them turning the corner. Not sure if this week disproves that, or just shows they were gassed from last week.
-Stuckeys biggest challenge seems to be getting Tobias to give 100%. Again, maybe gassed from having to play so many snaps. *turns on Cam Williams highlights*
-I understand game planning with the above issues is difficult, but Parker was rough. He seemed to follow a Rees trope of banging into the stoutest part of the defense with the same few plays hoping it would break, rather than making adjustments and coming back to it when the defense adjusts in response.
Where were the Price/Love runs attacking the off tackle?
They might have worked, but hoo boy, the Hulk Smash inside didnt work all that great either.
It *did* break on the last ND offense play, in fairness
With this team so unfocused pre snap, I have to feel they weren’t carrying out their assignments very well after the snap either. Here’s hoping the OSU hangover was a major factor.