Despite the efforts of many, Notre Dame’s regular season winning streak against ACC teams continued late on Saturday night as the Irish came from behind to drop a physical Duke team 21-14 in Durham. It certainly wasn’t pretty but it’s an important victory with a pair of big night games still to come on the schedule until a much needed bye week gives this team some respite.

Here’s the 18S review of the win at Duke.

Stats Package
STAT IRISH DUKE
Score 21 14
Plays 63 67
Total Yards 381 323
Yards Per Play 6.0 4.8
Conversions 6/18 7/16
Completions 15 12
Yards/Attempt 7.1 4.9
Rushes 32 40
Rushing Success 41.9% 39.4%
10+ Yds Rushes 3 6
20+ Yds Passes 5 3
Defense Stuff Rate 23.8% 20.9%

 

Offense

QB: C
RB: C+
TE: A
OL: D
WR: D

As I mentioned in the preview to this game, Duke’s rushing defense stats were a little worse than last year but overall they’d been solid. Clemson ran for 213 yards at 5.0 yards per carry against them and it felt like some Irish fans believed this would be a 300-yard game on the ground for Notre Dame. Thanks to a perfectly executed fake punt and the late touchdown run, the Irish got to 4.96 yards per carry in this game but only 159 yards total.

This was the offensive lines worst game of the season by quite a big margin. There was very little running room most of the night, Hartman was pressured way too often and hit too many times, and we saw a frustrating amount of pre-snap penalties.

I was mentioning in the writers room Slack chat late in the game how much it stinks to face a running quarterback when you don’t have one–it feels like such an enormous differentiator in these close college football games. Then, Hartman came through with a gutsy 17-yard run to move the chains on 4th down. In general, I wish Hartman was a little more decisive running the ball–while realizing that’s not really his game–but he seems way too relaxed and chill (it is his overall vibe to be fair) a lot of the time when there are opportunities for positive run plays before him.

Through the air, it was a very blah day for Hartman whose long streak for touchdowns in consecutive games comes to an end.

No doubt, I’ll give Hartman (and by extension Gerad Parker) some leeway for all of the injuries at wide receiver. They tried to get true freshman Rico Flores going but that was terribly inefficient (2 catches on 7 targets). The fact that Hartman was trying to go to such a young player on the road against a ranked team is evidence enough that it wasn’t a great situation overall.

Overall, wide receivers caught just 4 passes. Four passes. Yikes. Double yikes.

I believe DJ Brown was credited with the 9-yard reception by Estime on the last full offensive series so that’s 11 receptions from non-wide receivers in this game. There’s no way the Irish can keep pace with USC’s offense (and maybe another opponent or two down the line) if the receivers don’t start doing better when they get healthy.

Rushing Success

Estime – 8 of 18
Love – 2 of 5
Hartman – 2 of 4
Payne – 1 of 3

Just a couple games ago it looked like Holden Staes was going to take the torch as the no. 1 passing tight end on the team. Since that big game against NC State, he has just 1 catch in 3 games though. In steps Mitchell Evans, fighting through an ankle injury, and dominates Duke with a player of the game 134 yards on 6 catches from 8 targets.

That’s the most yards from a Notre Dame tight end in a game in a very, very long time. Now, Evans leads the team in catches and yards on the season, although he’s yet to catch a touchdown in 2023.

Defense

DL: B+
LB: B
DB: B+

I didn’t have much to quibble about with the Notre Dame defense against Duke. Things got a little hairy in the 2nd half as the Irish offense was getting too bogged down but it never looked out of control for Notre Dame’s defense.

They took the run away from Duke early and that was evident by the Blue Devils’ running backs having zero successful carries in the 1st half. That’s not a winning recipe if you’re Mike Elko. Their tag team running backs of Jaquez Moore and Jordan Waters had long carries of 34, 13, and 12 yards on the night but were shut down for just 39 yards on their 17 carries for 2.29 yards per rush.

Full credit to Riley Leonard who hung in there and carried Duke’s offense for some stretches of the game. He cobbled together 3 long runs for a total of 64 yards and ended up leading the team in rushing.

If the Irish offense had a better day though, this is probably a sobering night for Duke when looking at things through the prism of the loss, Leonard’s injury, and really not a whole lot done on offense.

Their wide receivers only caught 7 passes for 62 yards and Duke didn’t give the Irish a ton to worry about through the air. Leonard would finish with just 134 yards through the air, his fewest over the last 13 games at Duke.

Stuffs

Cross – 5.5(!!!!)
Lifuau – 2.5
Botelho – 2
Mills – 1.5
JJB – 1
Harper – 1
Burnham – 0.5
Watts – 0.5
Nana – 0.5

Notre Dame did a pretty good job of harassing Leonard and providing a good pass rush, too. We still haven’t had a game with 3 sacks this season but the overall pressure rate was very high on Saturday night.

We need to make special mention to Howard Cross, as well. Recently, I wondered about his playmaking this season and he came through with one of the best games from an Irish interior defensive lineman in modern history. In total:

  • 13 tackles
  • 5.5 stuffs
  • 1 sack
  • 3.5 TFL
  • 2 forced fumbles

For a nose guard, those are stupid amazing numbers.

Final Thoughts

From anything inside 45 yards, be honest how sure were you that Spencer Shrader would’ve hit a game-winning field goal if needed on that last drive? He’s only 5 of 10 this season, it’s been a while since Notre Dame’s kicker had struggles like this.

The Irish got a little lucky shall we say, on the game-winning touchdown. Top defensive lineman DeWayne Carter torched right guard Rocco Spindler and Estime found his momentum stopped stuck behind center Zeke Correll and left guard Pat Coogan. However, Spindler got just enough of a late push on Carter towards the backfield that Estime was just able to outrun Carter’s diving tackle from behind.

On the flip side, Notre Dame was pretty fortunate that Duke’s kicker missed from 25 and 38 yards, respectively. That’s really bad.

I’m not stopping anyone from counting Tobias Merriweather out from becoming a valued starter as a receiver, at least for this season. I’m not surprised by only 4 targets on the game, but zero catches is pretty embarrassing. Merriweather also false started once and is awfully lucky Notre Dame pulled out the win after his OPI call on the last drive.

OPI (and an ugly drop to boot) nearly derailed ND’s game-winning drive. 

It’ll get lost in the win but Hartman was close to being intercepted for the first time this season on the play right before his epic 4th down scramble.

What was Chris Tyree doing fielding that punt return? In the moment, I was sure Notre Dame was going to lose if they didn’t recover that. However, we finally recovered a fumble from the other team! God is good!

You have to feel terrible for Riley Leonard and his injury. If nothing is broken I have to believe he’ll be out several weeks with a really bad sprain. Duke has a bye week then faces NC State, Florida State, and Louisville afterwards.

Last week, I complained about how college football is broadcast on television and consumed by fans. I’m not one to ask about these things because I am as anti-official as they come. However, in combination with TV’s grip over the sport I feel like we need a complete teardown of how football is officiated. Among other errors, the crew made up an illegal review of McFerson’s coffin corner punt. Just decided to check it out without indisputable evidence and of course they overturned the call, didn’t they!

No carries from Jadarian Price is duly noted. Once again, true freshman Jeremiyah Love was featured quite a bit (great call on the punt fake everyone!) and I think he may go into this off-season as the clubhouse leader to be RB1 in 2024.

I don’t necessarily like it, but excessive tackles with the crown of your helmet in non-head/neck areas are going to be called more and more in the coming years. I do feel bad for Jordan Botelho who will miss the 1st half against Louisville.

I’ve been thinking more about Parker and the offense in this game. It seemed needlessly conservative trying to run right through the middle on so many plays without many constraint plays to build off that approach. Granted, the problems at wide receiver make things difficult. We’re also seeing Estime continue to struggle with his vision and working in tight space when there isn’t a lot of room at the line of scrimmage. The Irish back had his 30-yard touchdown run to win it, plus a 6-yard touchdown run and an additional 9-yard run to end the game with another 6-yard run and 5-yard run. His other 13 carries went for 25 yards!

Former Notre Dame player Ja’Mion Franklin picked up a sack last night.

I know for many it’s just Duke and it doesn’t matter, but the advanced stats say this will likely be the 2nd toughest defense Notre Dame faces in the regular season. We might see a very similar type of frustrating offensive game against Clemson. Let’s hope it’s not so against USC’s defense.

Notre Dame is “only” 72nd nationally in penalties per game. It feels much worse than that, doesn’t it?

We tend not to look too critically at other team’s coaching mistakes but the decision to punt on 4th & 6 from Notre Dame’s 33-yard line was really dumb for Duke. They downed it to the 5-yard line to their credit. But that deep in Notre Dame territory with just a 1-point lead? I would’ve gone for it, myself. Full credit to safety Xavier Watts for coming off the edge (with clean up help from NaNa Osafo-Mensah) to make a stop for -2 yards on the previous 3rd down to push Duke back to a 4th & 6 situation.