As we pass the hours and minutes until the 2023 season kicks off, it’s time for a spin through the Notre Dame schedule of opponents for the upcoming year. Which opponents inspire the most fear for a loss this fall, what are the biggest question marks or swing factors, and what rationale has a chance at convincing Irish fans to relax?

Note: Statistics below heavily leverage F+ results from 2022 and 2023 projections, which combines Bill Connelly’s SP+ and Brian Fremeau’s FEI and lives here.

Navy 

Reasons For Fear: The Usual Ugly, Low Possession Shenanigans

This year’s Midshipmen offense isn’t very threatening. They’re just inside the top-100 (#94) in Offensive F+ projections, and there’s no Malcolm Perry or Keenan Reynolds leading the way at QB (currently Tai Lavatai and Blake Horvath are listed as options to start). It’s a fairly generic roster by Navy standards, albeit one undergoing a transition year with Ken Niumatalolo out and a new staff in place. DC Brian Newberry was elevated to the head coaching gig, and elected to bring former Kennesaw State pal Grant Chesnut in to run the offense. The bones of the offense are still the triple option, but Chesnut figures to bring in some new wrinkles.

Helping Chesnut’s plan for an upset is the new NCAA rule change with first downs (ICYMI, the clock will now only stop after first downs in the final two minutes of each half). Newberry, for his part in this equation, has impressively overachieved with his defenses given the talent on hand (two top-60 defenses in four years in F+, despite some weird COVID + early season results we’ll cover later). It’s the typical annoying Navy gameplan with the potential for some new wrinkles, an extra boost via rule change, and a defense that again will mix disruption with bend-but-don’t break in an effort to create an ultra low-possession game.

Reasons to Relax: Navy’s Achilles Heel Meets Sam Hartman

Navy was 131st (aka last) in Passing EPA / play allowed last season. As you’ll remember from last year’s tale of two halves, Newberry loves to create havoc with an aggressive front. It’s been effective overall, but Sam Hartman appears far better equipped to deal with this pressure than Drew Pyne. This year, it may not matter which poison the Midshipmen pick – a more well-rounded Notre Dame offense should be able to take whatever Newberry is willing to give them.

Big Question: Do the Scheduling Circumstances Help the Irish?

The scheduling factors for the opener in Dublin all appear to favor Notre Dame – Week 0, tons of time for preparation, and an opponent that has struggled out of the gate in recent years. It may be an artifact of some weird circumstances, including COVID protocols, that were specific to Coach Ken’s offseason ramp-up into the regular season. But the last three Navy opening games included a 55-3 massacre at home against BYU, a 49-7 home loss to Marshall (no comment), and a 14-7 home loss to FCS Delaware. Throw in a new HC, OC, and some uncertainty at QB, and this feels like near-ideal conditions if Navy must remain on the schedule.

Fear Factor: 3.4/10

Tennessee State

Reasons for Fear: Complaining, Someone Might Get Hurt

Now that Notre Dame doesn’t have the meaningless “hasn’t played an FCS team” bragging point, there will be bad takes and message board debates galore this week. It will also be a huge bummer if any Irish players get hurt in this game. That’s all I’ve got.

Reason to Relax: Everything

Tennessee State hopes to be on the upswing as a program, but is picked to finish 5th in the Ohio Valley Conference of FCS.

Big Question: Can the Young Guys Play A Ton?

An early opportunity to get regular season reps for the second and third string of the roster would be excellent! It’s a deep Notre Dame team that failed to create these opportunities often enough last year in the projected blowout games.

Fear Factor: 0.8/10

NC State

Reasons for Fear: An Attacking, Solid Defense

Despite losing 5 of their 6 leading tacklers (104th in returning defensive production), the Wolfpack are still projected to be a top-20 defense. That’s a testament to the strong work of DC Tony Gibson, who still returns stud LB Payton Wilson and CB Aydan White (1st Team All-ACC). The attacking NC State defense was 1st in all of FBS in stuff rate last season, although the pass rush trailed a bit further behind (37th in sack rate). It’s a first defensive challenge for Gerad Parker and Hartman – with a talented and experienced secondary, you can envision Gibson bringing a lot of pressure in a hostile environment and forcing the Irish receivers to make them pay.

Reasons to Relax: An Offense Lacking Weapons

The Wolfpack offense was dreadful last season (99th in Offensive F+) with Devin Leary injured. The rushing attack was abysmal, and the team’s two leading receivers are gone. To fix this, Dave Doeren went to the coaching carousel and transfer portal and emerged with a reunion – former Virginia QB and OC combo Brennan Armstrong and Robert Anae (who you may remember from Syracuse last year).

Can they recapture the magic from their torrid stretch in early 2021? I’m skeptical – the Cavaliers offense paired Armstrong with an explosive array of receiving threats, and the NC State cupboard is fairly bare. Big-bodied Rice grad transfer Bradley Rozner was a late addition to the team heading into fall camp, but I’m not sure that tips the scales quite enough. Three offensive linemen return from a unit that was serviceable in pass protection but struggled on the ground. If once again the Pack offense is reliant on the passing game to bail them out, I like Notre Dame’s pass-rushing and corners against Anae and Armstrong.

Big Question: Does the Offensive Overhaul Work?

See above! Even if the defense underachieves, it feels like a far more reliable unit for Doeren to rely on. The offense’s floor and ceiling are a far greater gulf – how much should Armstrong’s 2021 success be weighted against the 2022 failures? Which UVA roster is more similar to what Anae steps into for his first season in Raleigh? Those answers will determine if NC State can pull off the upsets on the schedule and emerge as one of the 3-5 best teams in the deep middle of the ACC.

Fear Factor: 5.8/10

Central Michigan

Reasons for Fear: Classic “Look Ahead” Stuff

Coming off a game against a physical NC State team and a week before Ohio State comes to visit, this is the game where I could easily see focus drifting the most for Notre Dame. QB Bert Emanuel is a run-first threat that could scramble and break an explosive run that inspires angst in the massive Peacock audience.

Reasons to Relax: This Team is Not Good

The Chippewas are projected 90th or worse across offense, defense, and special teams. They are likely in the bottom half of the MAC. This game should not be close, SP+ projects the spread around 36 points.

Big Question: What Do the Irish Work On?

This would be a terrific week for Tobias Merriweather to go off for 5-122-2, Jaylen Sneed to do cool stuff everywhere, or Jeremiyah Love to run for 100 yards in the second half. Boost vibes and team confidence as much as possible heading into the Ohio State game.

Fear Factor: 1.2/10

Ohio State

Reasons for Fear: Insane talent everywhere

This could just be a list of all the blue-chip talent on the Buckeyes roster, or a link to mock drafts that usually include 4-6 OSU players in the first round next year. The wide receiver and running back rooms each have an argument as the best in FBS. The defensive line is littered with 5-star juniors primed for break-outs. The linebackers are experienced and strong, and where the secondary had minor holes they picked up arguably the best safety in the transfer portal.

The fanbase is having a minor panic attack after getting out-muscled twice in a row by Michigan, and is seemingly not reassured by going toe-to-toe with UGA and coming a missed field goal away from a likely title. The offense is easily projected as a top-5 unit despite losing CJ Stroud, and the defense should be better with strong returning production and a second year under Jim Knowles. The upside for Ohio State is higher than any team on the schedule.

Reasons to Relax: Less Certainty at QB and Up Front

The smart money is on Ryan Day finding an effective QB1 between competing blue chip prospects Kyle McCord and Devin Brown. But neither has separated himself from the pack, and if the Buckeye’s passing game is anything less than elite, it will be a step down despite Marvin Harrison Jr., Emeka Egbuka, and the wealth of elite receiving options.

What else could throw off the Ohio State offense? A shakier offensive line after losing three starters to the NFL from last season’s excellent unit that finished 2nd in stuff rate allowed and 4th in sack rate given up. Day has tried to fill these gaps via the portal, but failed to land some of the top prospects. Especially at the tackle positions, this may be a more vulnerable group than past seasons. The offensive floor is still incredibly high, but the floor might be the lowest it’s been in several seasons if a QB drop-off coincides with the OL rebuild.

Big Question: Is Jim Knowles the new Don Brown?

The most likely outcome for the Ohio State defense is a really strong year with more continuity in Knowles scheme. But what if Knowles is the new Don Brown – a DC whose scheme dominates inferior talent (nearly every game) but then struggles to adapt when an opponent can hold their own, and gets gashed for big plays? The challenge (that Brown also faced) is that the defensive aggression can look amazing for 1o or 11 games on the schedule, then suddenly find itself overwhelmed and in disarray when they finally face a top offense. If this is the case, and if Notre Dame can find the big-play options to exploit it, there could be a party in South Bend in September.

Fear Factor: 9.2/10

Duke

Reasons for Fear: Competence and Continuity Across the Board

Mike Elko, take a bow! What an impressive debut season, taking advantage of a cushy schedule but also bringing the Blue Devils a long way in his first season (from 119th to 40th in F+). Duke was incredibly balanced, finishing 41st on Offense in F+, 45th on defense, and 45th on special teams. QB Riley Leonard took a major leap, and Elko brought immediate competence to the defense, much like his first year overhauling Notre Dame in the post-Van Gorder era. Even Duke’s four losses were only by a total of 16 points.

The Blue Devils are also 19th in returning production, so it’s hard to envision a major step back in quality even if the schedule projects to be infinitely harder.

Reasons to Relax: Lack of High-End Talent After Leonard

Including transfers, there’s only two blue-chip players on Duke’s roster. Leonard has developed into a legitimate NFL prospect, but it’s tough for a developmental program to ascend so far. To play to a top-25 quality level, there’s virtually no margin for error – health, turnover luck, scheme advantages, and player development all have to hit. While the floor is high building off last year’s performance and the continuity, it’s hard to see either side of the ball vaulting too much further ahead given the talent gap versus other P5 programs.

Big Question: What Ceiling is Left After 2022?

The advanced stat projects can’t help but be a little skeptical of Duke’s Cinderella season in 2022. The program quality in previous years was in decline, and the Blue Devils trailed only USC in turnover margin per game (+1.23). Add in a roster that’s toward the bottom of P5 in overall recruiting and not a big transfer portal program, and you end up with a team that the computers may see as close to maxed out.

The scary question is what if the computers are wrong? Leonard could still make another jump in performance, the bulk of the receiver room returns, and there’s a lot of experience across each level of the defense. It’s not crazy to think some incremental improvement could offset the expected turnover regression and for Duke to claw its way toward the top 30-40 teams again.

Fear Factor: 6.8/10

Louisville

Reasons for Fear: Brohm Offense + Decent Defensive Bones?

The Cardinals finished 30th in F+ in 2022, with the 60th ranked offense and 14th rated defense. F+ projects a slight offensive improvement and a small defensive decline due to lack of returning production (90th in FBS) on that side of the ball. What’s difficult to capture is just how different both of those units will look this fall with Scott Satterfield out and Jeff Brohm taking over, and bringing a massive transfer portal haul with him.

Louisville brought in 27 transfers, headlined by QB Jack Plummer and WR Jamari Thrash. Brohm adds value with his offensive scheme, and thrives on getting the ball to his best players (who saw the Charlie Jones breakout coming last year?) Many of the Cardinals best defenders are out the door, but if the talent remaining can be effectively supplemented by the transfer portal haul, this is a dangerous combination.

Reasons to Relax: The Near-Term Ceiling

While Brohm’s reputation as an offensive guru is well-earned, his Purdue offenses rarely cracked the top-40 in Offensive F+. The pieces just never all seemed to come together at once, between QB talent with limited upside, lack of depth at skill positions, and offensive lines that weren’t consistent. This Louisville depth chart on offense feels like it’s much more in the same ballpark of those recent Brohm offenses than a group on the verge of a breakout.

Similarly, with the defensive transitions in and out it would be a major coup if the Cards remain a top-20 unit. That feels extremely optimistic with the talent on hand and number of new starters to break in with new DC Ron English (coming over from Brohm’s Purdue staff). If both sides of the ball are top-40 good, Louisville will be very successful against an exceedingly light schedule, but fail to threaten opponents like Notre Dame that have a different level of talent.

Big Question: Does the Portal Overhaul Work?

I’m skeptical of teams that transition huge portions of the roster year-over-year, but the first year of a new head coach seems like the best time to go for it. Brohm knows what he’s getting with Plummer (this fear factor would bump up a solid point if he had landed a QB with more upside like Hudson Card), and maybe the defense continues to ballhawk (T3rd in 2022 with 30 turnovers gained on defense). Louisville appears on the rise with Brohm and a significant NIL investment as a program, but the portal overhaul doesn’t come without potential downsides with chemistry and the development of returning players at risk.

Fear Factor: 6.5/10

USC

Reasons for Fear: Borderline Unstoppable Offense

In a fantasy college football program draft, Caleb Williams is the #1 player pick and Lincoln Riley is the #1 offensive mastermind. USC’s formula for an instant offensive overhaul worked seamlessly last year (3rd in Offensive F+), and they’ve returned to the same formula for 2023, filling any draft losses with stars from the transfer portal. The skill position groups feature both high-end talent (Arizona transfer Dorian Singer, Mario Williams, South Carolina transfer Marshawn Lloyd) and a ton of depth. Riley’s scheme creates favorable situations for the offensive line, where again quality transfers are plugging into potential gaps. This is just an elite combination of talent and scheme that is a lock to repeat as a top-3 offense if Williams stays healthy.

Reasons to Relax: The Defense Can Improve And Still Be Bad

USC’s defense ranked 101st in F+ last season. The transfer portal overhaul did not work for Alex Grinch, with one saving grace – turnover luck. The Trojans +1.50 margin per game – a testament to both the offense and defense – led FBS by a healthy margin. It was an amazing “be good at one thing and one thing only” performance that completed an offense that was willing and able to win shootouts with minimal assistance.

Grinch’s unit’s FEI rankings are hilarious to scroll through:

  • Defensive Points Allowed / Drive – 111th
  • Defensive Yards / Play – 122nd
  • Opponent TD Rate – 119th
  • Opponent “Busted Drive” Rate (negative possession) – 122nd
  • Defensive Turnover Rate – 1st

This is a very inexact science, but the anticipated improvement (to 67th in F+ projections, although SP+ has them much higher than FEI) could be offset by a return to earth in turnover luck.

Big Question: How much better (if at all) is each side of the ball versus 2022?

The USC offense was so filthy and dominant last year that it begs a provocative question – what are the odds the Trojans can be as good or better this fall? If we assume Caleb Williams as a near-constant – it’d be hard for him to be much more productive or turn the ball over less – it’s a stretch to think there’s much more of a leap ahead. The running back room may be slightly more talented, the receiving room possibly a bit less trading out Jordan Addison for Dorian Singer. The bar is set so high that betting on a drop-off of some kind, even if small, is arguably more likely than improving further.

The defense seems likely to improve, but how much? The defensive line saw an infusion of young interior talent, but the secondary still feels heavy on aggressive ball-hawking types and light on tacklers. If the defense only improves to top-60ish quality, it’s easy to see the Trojans dropping a few games down the brutal second half of their schedule (at Notre Dame, vs Utah, at Cal, vs Washington, at Oregon, vs UCLA without any by weeks).

Fear Factor: 8.4/10

Pitt

Reasons for Fear: A Frisky Narduzzi Defense + Jurkovec Renaissance

The best-case scenario for the Panthers involves Pat Narduzzi reloading seamlessly on defense (projected to be a borderline top-25 unit) and Phil Jurkovec returning to hyped prospect status once reunited with former BC playcaller Frank Cignetti. Finally healthy and behind a line that can provide passable protection, Jurkovec bounces back and Narduzzi reluctantly lets him throw the ball around to complement the run game.

Reasons to Relax: I Don’t Buy Anything In The Paragraph Above

The Panthers are projected 53rd on offense, and I’m not a believer in the Jurkovec upside. Even in his best season at Boston College, Jurkovec’s accuracy on short-intermediate throws has always been shaky, and his weapons on hand are serviceable but not overly threatening. Everything is fine – the offensive line returns three starters but loses stud RB Israel Akanibanda – but a breakout seems hard to envision.

What isn’t tough to imagine is a defensive setback. The Panthers loose a ton of returning production (100th on defense and offense, which is very neat and clean), and while there’s some portal rehabilitation projects, there’s few proven options on hand. It’s easy to picture a world where Pitt doesn’t rank in the top 40 on either side of the ball this fall.

Big Question: What Weird Social Media Post Does Phil Jurkovec Make on Gameday?

You know he’s going to do something, he can’t help himself.

Fear Factor: 5.1/10

Clemson

Reasons for Fear: Cade Klubnik + Garrett Riley Upside

After a few years of underperforming offenses, Garrett Riley’s arrival should give Clemson a massive scoring boost. He inherits a QB in Klubnik who oozes talent, a veteran offensive line, and strong running back room. There’s question marks at receiver but some solid experience and upside between Antonio Williams, Beaux Collins, and Adam Randall. Riley should make everyone look better in his scheme, and the roster is primed for a big leap if Klubnik realizes his potential sooner rather than later. The Tigers finished 46th on offense last season but a jump to the top 10-20 in 2023 is definitely in the realm of possibilities to pair with the usual stout defense.

Reasons to Relax: Receiving Weapons, Pass Rush, & the post-Venables Era

This is another roster with few glaring flaws, but some nits to pick. Klubnik flashed at times as a true freshman but struggled mightily in his relief appearance in South Bend and in the postseason against Tennessee. Williams will be the best bet to break the recent streak of blue chip Clemson WR prospects that underachieve, but there’s no clear game-changer at the moment.

The defense is loaded as usual, especially at linebacker, but there are some questions about Clemson’s pass rush. Last year’s team seemed primed for a generational DL, but put together a sack rate only in the top-30 nationally. Now without Bryan Bresee and Myles Murphy, it feels like a rare question mark hinging upon breakouts or a return to form from injury-riddled DE Xavier Thomas.

Big Question: Is the Offensive Breakout A Year Away?

I believe in Garrett Riley and Cade Klubnik over the long term, but are the pieces really there for the offensive breakout to happen right away? It worked for Riley at TCU, but Klubnik is more inexperienced than Max Duggan and I’m skeptical there’s a Quentin Johnson on the roster. Will Shipley should have a massive year, but Clemson’s offensive line always feels stuck in a perpetual state of “maybe this is the year”.

Fear Factor: 8.7/10

Wake Forest

Reason for Fear: Dave Clawson Might Be a Wizard

It’s always interesting to see what projections match up with gut feel writing these previews, and I was shocked – but shouldn’t have been – that Wake remains so high (43rd) in the post-Hartman era. Dave Clawson (and OC Warren Ruggiero) just seem to always find a formula for a solid team despite a lack of resources and blue chip talent on hand. Their developmental formula seems to work, and QB Mitch Griffis has been in their program in Winston Salem for a long time. Betting against a solid offense and just-good-enough defense feels like a mistake given Clawson’s track record.

Reasons to Relax: The Offensive Transition Will Be Tough

Still, this will be Clawson and Ruggerio’s biggest challenge yet. The Deacons are 112th in returning production and 122nd on offense, and top returning WR Donavon Greene will miss most of the season with a knee injury. Griffis is an overall question mark, and they must replace three starters on the line.

The driving positive force in Wake’s projections is a top-40 offense, and man is it tough to see them fulfilling that at the moment. Throw in a defense that’s losing a ton of continuity as well and I think this could be the year Clawson finally sees a major dip overall after seven straight years bowling.

Big Question: Can the Slow Mesh Hold Up Against the ND Front?

Even in a world where the Demon Deacons offense remains dangerous, they’ve historically struggled to run the slow mesh against teams that have the size and talent to really disrupt things up front. By this point in the season, are the Irish able to meet that bar?

Fear Factor: 4.8/10

Stanford

Reasons for Fear: Something Like Last Year

There’s few rational things that should scare Notre Dame about this Cardinal team. The roster is threadbare, ranking 130th in returning production. They were not a good team last year before losing all of this production. If there’s anything competent it’s likely the defense (projected 74th per F+), although new HC Troy Taylor brings some fresh offensive blood to Palo Alto. The formula for a dicey game is something like last fall – the offense getting totally out of rhythm and blowing chances, and the Cardinal offense duct-taping together just enough points to make things tight.

Reasons to Relax Lack of Returning Production

See above – this is a roster in total rebuild mode. Taylor seems like a much more inspired hired than alternatives (why oh why couldn’t they have stolen Jason Garrett?), but it’s going to take a year or two to get things back on track. There’s a chance under a new scheme this team is improving by the end of November, but with an incredibly thin roster it’s equally possible with any attrition that things have totally fallen apart.

Big Question: What Is The State of Each Team by Game 12?

This is kind of a cop-out, but each team’s motivation level at the end of the regular season will shape this contest. Has Stanford shown glimpses of a brighter future, or is it an extremely ugly season marred with blowouts and depth issues? Are the Irish looking to lock up a major postseason berth of some kind, or are they treading water toward the finish line of a disappointing year?

Fear Factor: 3.1/10