We break out the advanced stats once again to how the Irish football team fared against Nevada in their 39-10 win. Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here.

This week features the return of garbage time! A reminder – I deviate a little bit here from some other sources – for example, Football Outsiders has used up 28+ in the 1st quarter, 24+ in the 2nd, 21+ in the 3rd, and 16+ in the 4th as their parameters.

I’m a little more subjective – there’s usually a clear inflection point where you can identify a significant strategic shift by both teams, and it doesn’t always match up to the point differentials above. (Note: this is also why if you compare my numbers for Notre Dame to other sources like Bill Connelly, they’ll be extremely close but not identical). From Saturday’s game, garbage time began with 8:30 remaining in the 3rd quarter, when a Tarean Folston touchdown run put the Irish up 32-0.

Explosiveness

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After allowing Texas to rack up 6.22 yards per play, the defense rebounded with a nice effort against Nevada, holding the Wolfpack to just 3.4 yards per play. While Nevada’s offense is definitely bad, it was good to see the Irish perform well in areas they struggled and the Pack were potentially dangerous, like explosive running plays.

The young secondary, who somehow became even younger after Shaun Crawford’s devastating injury, didn’t allow a pass play over 15 yards before garbage time. Drue Tranquill made a solid play to break up an early deep ball, and the defensive game plan was fairly vanilla. That could be an intentional call not to use anything exotic against a weaker opponent, or perhaps signals a bit more bend but don’t break. I’m not holding my breath, but it could be a good idea!

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Offensively, it was a good but not great performance against a defense that is likely to finish in the bottom 20-30 in FBS.  Some of this was self-inflicted, with early penalties and a bad Kizer throw thwarting efforts to open up a huge lead by halftime.

Early on, this Notre Dame hasn’t been anywhere near as explosive as last year. In the passing game this was a near-certainty with Will Fuller’s departure, and it’s a small sample size so far – if Kizer can put that long bomb to Stepherson on the money, I’m not typing this sentence. The running game, though, has been a little bit more surprising; there’s noticeably less open space to operate than last year, and the switch from Prosise/Adams to Folston/Adams is a clear downgrade in terms of explosiveness. More on this below.

Efficiency

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The Wolfpack’s efficiency running the ball surprised me – it seemed high compared to what I watched. Nevada was actually less efficient in garbage time, and only rushed for 3.8 YPC before then – they just took advantage of some very short 2nd and 3rd downs (off passes and/or penalties) that led to a few easy successes in a small sample size, since Nevada only ran 17 times before the garbage time cutoff.

I was optimistic in the preseason about the Irish front seven, and while a lot of that hope was killed in Austin, this game restored a small bit of it. James Onwualu and Isaac Rochell have made the strides expected as senior captains, and Te’Von Coney and Nyles Morgan had very nice games on Saturday.

Zero sacks through two games is gross, but I think we’ll see continued improvement from Jarron Jones (who had a nice pick, but no tackles yet), Jerry Tillery, and Daniel Cage. The Hayes brothers have some potential, with Jay getting in the game late and hopefully healthy, and Daelin getting some pressure on Saturday. I’m more than willing to trade off sacks for better defensive efficiency (although they’re definitely intertwined) or lack of big plays given up – it’s when we aren’t doing any of those that the frustration sets in.

I may say it until I’m blue in the face, but passing downs are huge with a young secondary, and once again the Irish were solid when they could win the leverage game. Notre Dame’s 22.7% success rate yielded on passing downs for the year is about the only place right now they’re above average nationally.

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On the other side of the ball, it was a very efficient performance from DeShone Kizer, with Equanimeous St. Brown and C.J. Sanders continuing to shine. St. Brown has been solid acting through two games as a #1 target, with 30.4% of passes going his way at 9.4 yards/target. Sanders hasn’t seen as much action but has been even more efficient, with 11.2 yards/target and a 77.8% success rate when the ball has come his way.

The running game has been solid, but hasn’t looked like the attack that was #1 in Rushing S&P+ in 2015. Bridging off Eric’s review, the profiles of Notre Dame’s three runners also look very different, and a different allocation of carries may be needed:

Tarean Folston: 28 carries, 115 yards (4.1 YPC), 34.6% success rate
Josh Adams: 21 carries, 149 yards (7.1 YPC), 61.9% success rate
Dexter Williams: 8 carries, 59 yards (7.4 YPC), 75.0% success rate (all in garbage time)

In the offseason, I had a lukewarm take I threw out to our staff that it would be a good sign if Folston ended the season as Notre Dame’s third-leading running back. Even when healthy in 2014, Folston was very efficient but lacked explosiveness. As a sophomore, he averaged just 3.54 highlight yards per opportunity, which measures how running backs perform once they’ve benefitted from good blocking and enter the open field. That number ranked him 153rd out of 177 FBS running backs with at least 100 carries.

It wouldn’t be surprising to see Folston shake off some rust as the season goes on, but the numbers certainly support more carries for Adams and Williams in the near-term.  Folston also brings some proven skills to the table in terms of knowledge of the offense and pass protection, but if he isn’t proving to be more efficient and is much less explosive, can you justify giving him RB1 carries?

 

Field Position

Average Starting Field Position:
Notre Dame: Irish 37
Nevada: Wolfpack 20

Looking back at stats from the 2014 season, teams with a field position margin from 15-20 yards won 92.8% of the time with an average margin of +28.6 points. Yes, field position is important, and this was a very nice game for the Irish.

Integral in this effort were boneheaded plays by Nevada – a safety on the 2nd quarter kickoff return gave the Irish possession back, two free points, and good starting field position on the next drive. Another penalty on a bad kickoff return backed the Wolfpack up and eventually led to a Sanders return almost to the red zone. Finally, Jarron Jones’ screen-pass snag again put the Irish right on the doorstep of scoring.

The only area for improvement has been inconsistency from Tyler Newsome, and comments from those close to the program suggest it’s likely just some needed mental focus and confidence when the lights come on. Justin Yoon missed an extra point,  but that happened early last year too, and then he was perfect for the last two-thirds of the year, so not a cause for concern yet.

Finishing Drives

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If there’s been reason to be excited so far about the offense, the red-zone execution has been extremely productive and clean so far this season. The problem in the past for Notre Dame the past few seasons wasn’t an inability to move the ball in the red zone, it was too often coming away with nothing after turnovers. Thus far the Irish have shown a number of different looks close to the end zone, and it may be the maturity of Kizer, but there’s been little risk so far.

Defensively, the Wolfpack only crossed midfield a few times before garbage time, and on the first possession came up empty on a 4th down attempt. To Brian Van Gorder’s credit, the Nevada offense threw a ton of different looks at the Irish early (three QBs on the first drive), and the defense was up to the task.

Turnovers

The Irish notched their first turnover of the season when Kizer threw a ball a little late and behind a previously open Stepherson. They’ll also have a little bit of film room material with some lax ball-handling near the sidelines, but those fumbles out of bounds were in low-risk areas and if anything should provide some focus.

The Jarron Jones interception was a thing of beauty, and Cole Luke would have added another pick if not for a true freshman moment by Khalid Kareem with an unnecessary late hit. Notre Dame games the past few seasons have been low turnover affairs – on both sides – and it’s interesting to have no forced fumbles so far for the Irish defense.

 

A new hope

This was a great bounce-back effort for a defensive unit sorely in need of some confidence. The front seven looked much more active and engaged, and while a young secondary lost a dynamic player in Shaun Crawford ,it’s a group that should get better each game with Studstill, Coleman, Love, and others gaining valuable experience. They’ll be tested against a hard-nosed Michigan State team that like Texas wants to pound the ball, but the Irish should match up better and be more prepared for it.

The offense will face an even tougher test, but has to feel confident about answering big offseason questions so far. Kizer has been excellent in his young career in big games, and concerns about who will step up at receiver being quickly answered by the duo of St. Brown and Sanders. Malik McDowell could cause all kinds of problems on the interior, and the offensive line will need to hold up in pass protection against an aggressive defense. More will come Friday, but I’m already looking forward to another big rivalry game against a Spartan team that has a lot to prove after a shaky opener against Furman.