Stock up the fridge with your favorite beverages, get your tailgate food list prepared, and iron the lucky jersey for the 2025 campaign. Next weekend in Dublin, Ireland the new college football season begins. After months of hibernation, Five Wide Fullbacks returns! Today we’ll discuss North Carolina’s hopes in 2025, the new AP Poll, the first AP Poll, and who will be the first coach fired and the newest head coach to win their first National Championship.

1) It’s about to happen, the Bill Belichick era at North Carolina begins soon. After a weird build up to his first season in Chapel Hill can the Super Bowl winning head coach find success in college and what will be UNC’s record for 2025?

As the resident uniform nerd my ears perked up when Belichick announced the Tar Heels were ordering 1980 throwbacks for his first season. North Carolina went undefeated in the ACC that year and finished 11-1 overall. I like the move, try and conjure up the spirits from a great era in school history. Then you see things like Belichick not using numbers for players jerseys this off-season and it makes you doubt the whole project.

Nationally, it seems like everyone expects North Carolina to be middle of the pack in the ACC and slightly above average set against the nearly 140 FBS college football teams. They’re rebuilding in a big way, especially on defense where they could be pretty stinky, but the offensive line could be decent and transfer quarterback Gio Lopez might be an ACC surprise with good running ability–plus the veteran Max Johnson lurks in the shadows as another option coming back from a nasty injury. Maybe he’s a feel-good story.

Belichick in college: Unc still got it?

The Heels were 6-7 last year, lost 5 games in the league, and were 67th in the FEI rankings. They host TCU in the opener which is an interesting game, plus another Big 12 opponent in UCF on the road in week 4 between Charlotte (a road game!) and Richmond. Their toughest games should be Clemson followed by…Syracuse, Duke, or NC State??

It’s tempting to predict a dumpster fire. I can see young players jumping ship quickly if this goes off the rails early in the season. Still, Mack Brown looked totally disinterested as the program finished 2024 on a 3-6 cold streak then lost to UConn in the bowl game. I’ll guess the record looks similar to last year with 6 wins overall.

2) Who is the next active head coach to win their first National Championship?

It doesn’t seem possible that there are only 3 active coaches who have won a National Championship. Marcus Freeman could’ve been the third but it became Ryan Day instead. It makes me sad. Here’s the list of non-current title winning coaches since 2000:

Jim Harbaugh – 2023
Nick Saban, 2020, 2017, 2015, 2012, 2011, 2009
Ed Oregeron – 2019
Urban Meyer – 2014, 2008, 2006
Jimbo Fisher – 2013
Gene Chizik – 2010
Les Miles – 2007
Mack Brown – 2005
Pete Carroll – 2004, 2003
Jim Tressel – 2002
Larry Coker – 2001
Bob Stoops – 2000

None of these men being head coaches in college is wild. Heck, Larry Coker is only a few years older than Bill Belichick! There’s been media reports about Jimbo Fisher recently, he wants back in the game! He’s out there reminding everyone the 2013 Florida State team was statistically one of the best teams in the history of college football.

Ryan Day doesn’t look happy.

In my pre-season top 25 I mentioned I felt only the top 8 were legit National Championship contenders and if true that would cross off Mario Cristobal, Dan Lanning, and Josh Heupel as “big names” who will be on the outside looking in for 2025. That leaves us with 5 remaining coaches as possibilities for 2025:

Steve Sarkisian, Texas
Kalen DeBoer, Alabama
Marcus Freeman, Notre Dame
Brian Kelly, LSU
James Franklin, Penn State

Despite Penn State opening up as no. 2 in the AP Poll (more on this below) I think this is roughly how the rest of the country would order these coaches today as the most likely to win it all in 2025. I personally picked DeBoer with the recent playoff predictions article. I hope it’s Freeman!

3) Who will be the first Power 4 head coach fired in 2025?

I have 17 names listed below which is exactly 25% of the Power 4 head coaches if you include Marcus Freeman. I’ve ordered them in most likely to get fired, as well. From “you should probably talk to your real estate agent” down to “keeping a close eye on your situation.” This list also doesn’t include Frank Reich at Stanford (1-year interim gig) or jobs where someone may be more likely to step down (Deion Sanders at Colorado, Kyle Whittingham at Utah, etc.) either due to medical reasons or mid-season retirement to get a jump on recruiting.

Tony Elliott, Virginia
Hugh Freeze, Auburn
Mike Locksley, Maryland
Sherrone Moore, Michigan
Luke Fickell, Wisconsin
Scott Satterfield, Cincinnati
Willie Fritz, Houston
Jeff Lebby, Mississippi State
Mike Gundy, Oklahoma State
Dave Aranda, Baylor
Brent Pry, Virginia Tech
Sam Pittman, Arkansas
Billy Napier, Florida
Bill Belichick, North Carolina
Brent Brennan, Arizona
Justin Wilcox, California
Mike Norvell, Florida State

Contract length and buyout terms clearly play a part in this list. Florida State would owe Norvell $60 million or so if he were fired this season–it’s outrageous. Napier’s is less than half that amount at Florida so he’s more likely to get a red slip. Freeze is similar to Napier’s and we know how crazy Auburn can act. I’m watching the SEC show on Netflix and Sam Pittman references a buyout for himself–his contract is pretty manageable for Arkansas should they decide to go in a different direction.

Elliott is a dead man walking. He has 3 years remaining, including 2025, and his buyout is reportedly under $4 million right now. The Hoos start the season as 12.5 point favorites at home over Coastal Carolina and then travel to NC State for the weird non-league ACC matchup. An 0-2 start might get us a September firing brewing.

4) The 2025 pre-season AP Poll came out this week. How did it differ to the 18 Stripes rankings and what teams are overvalued or undervalued heading into the season?

I’ll list my top 20 and how it compares to the AP Poll, with votes received included in the rankings:

#1 Texas – 1st
#2 Clemson – 4th
#3 Alabama – 8th
#4 Ohio State – 3rd
#5 Notre Dame – 6th
#6 LSU – 9th
#7 Penn State – 2nd
#8 Georgia – 5th
#9 Miami – 10th
#10 Oregon – 7th
#11 SMU – 16th
#12 Arizona State – 11th
#13 South Carolina – 13th
#14 Kansas State – 17th
#15 Tennessee – 24th
#16 Pittsburgh – 46th
#17 Texas A&M – 19th
#18 Louisville – 29th
#19 Boise State – 25th
#20 Illinois – 12th

Penn State at no. 2 okie dokie. 

Michigan, Florida, Oklahoma, Indiana, Ole Miss, Iowa State, and Texas Tech were ranked by the AP but didn’t crack our top 20 at 18 Stripes.

Penn State is wildly overvalued but they are reaping the pre-season benefits of making the playoffs and having Drew Allar return to school. The logical question is how much do you trust Drew Allar in the spotlight?

Undervalued Pitt! I have to admit 30 spots higher than the AP Poll is incredibly funny. That’s going to look really great or pathetic with hindsight in a few months.

5) This week, On3 shared the first ever AP Poll from 1936. Were the polls a hot mess back then or were they better?

Well, this wasn’t a pre-season poll which I know some people would prefer the AP revert back to in modern times. Some teams played as few as 8 games during the 1936 season and this first-ever AP poll came after week 3, so after a third of the year was complete for some programs. In a way, the College Football Playoff rankings sort of mimic the way the AP Poll used to work.

  • Minnesota was defending champions, sat at 3-0, and were no. 1 by a wide margin.
  • Was this the best Duke team ever? They finished 9-1 and won the Southern Conference.
  • Army looked good early this season but ended up losing 3 games.

Lots of teams no longer doing this old football thing. 

  • Northwestern won the Big Ten but famously lost their last regular season game as the no. 1 team in the land to the good old Fighting Irish.
  • Purdue turned out to be mediocre. USC had just tied Washington State when this poll came out and would end up losing twice and tying a further two more times.
  • Notre Dame were shutout by Pitt and Navy, plus a late-season tie with the aforementioned Trojans.
  • Washington had already lost to Minnesota, tied Stanford later in the year, and lost the Rose Bowl to Pittsburgh. The Panthers picked up National Championship votes with a super tough schedule despite losing to Duquesne and later tying Fordham.
  • Duquesne and Fordham football! They are both FCS these days in the Northeast and Patriot League, respectively.
  • Yale’s only blemish was a loss to Dartmouth. Also partaking in FCS football these days.
  • St. Mary’s disbanded their football program back in 2004. They’d lose 3 games in 1936.
  • LSU won the SEC and picked up National Championship votes but lost the Sugar Bowl to Santa Clara. Ouch. Santa Clara disbanded their football program back in 1992 and had a great run in 1936 before a regular season finale loss to TCU.
  • Texas A&M tied once and lost 3 more games after this poll was released.
  • Nebraska won the Big Six but also lost to Minnesota and Pitt from above them in the rankings.
  • Another current Patriot League team Holy Cross didn’t face a ranked team all season and ended up losing to Temple and Boston College.
  • Tulane collapsed down the stretch losing 3 out of their last 4 games.
  • SMU snuck in the poll despite a recent loss to Fordham at the Polo Grounds the prior week. They’d lose 3 more times in 1936.
  • Marquette shut down its football program all the way back in 1960. They started 7-0 but finished right here at no. 20 overall after eventual losses to Duquesne and TCU.

This doesn’t seem too different than modern times. The polls had the better teams in the top half as they approached half of the season being played and the back half of the rankings were far more chaotic and full of teams that would ultimately struggle to keep winning.