Geoff Collins’s post-triple-option reclamation project continues in Atlanta. That’s probably the best thing you can say about Georgia Tech football this season, as the Yellow Jackets sit at 2-4 and -110 on scoring margin. Yes, 66 of that deficit came in one game against Clemson, but they also lost by 28 to UCF, 17 to Syracuse, and 21 to Boston College. Optimism peaked after the opener, when they beat Florida State 16-13 in Tallahassee, and came crashing down the next week against UCF. They have some athletes, which we’ll get into in a bit, but they’re just too inconsistent and (generally) overmatched to be successful. Collins still has a lot of work to do in re-shaping that roster.
Georgia Tech has some promise down the road, but this season they’ve put some pretty bad performances against some pretty mediocre-to-bad teams. SP+ gives the Irish a win probability of 83%, while ESPN’s FPI had it pegged at 94%. This is the kind of game that an elite team should win going away; the biggest postgame topic hopefully will be whether Notre Dame again looked as elite as they did against Pitt.
#4 Notre Dame (-20) at Georgia Tech
Bobby Dodd Stadium
Atlanta, Georgia
Date: Saturday, October 31, 2020
Time: 3:30 PM ET
TV: ABC
This game was originally slated to take place at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome, one of four NFL stadiums the Irish were to play in this season along with Lambeau Field (vs. Wisconsin), Heinz Field (vs. Pitt), and Bank of America Stadium (vs. Wake Forest). COVID changed almost all of that; Pitt plays all their home games at Heinz, so that one stayed, but the Wisconsin game is canceled and without the need to support increased gate demands Wake and Georgia Tech will keep their games at their more intimate on-campus venues. While the venue will max out at 20% capacity for this game per university COVID guidelines, at its full capacity of 55,000 Dodd is reminiscent of pre-expansion Notre Dame Stadium. Size-wise, anyway. Aesthetically, not so much.
 |
 |
| Lovely! | Eh… |
Georgia Tech’s Offense
The offense, for better or worse, runs through true freshman quarterback Jeff Sims. The four-star Jacksonville product chose Tech over a pretty solid offer list, making him an important win on the recruiting trail for Collins. He’s shown promise in the early going as a legitimate dual-threat guy, but of course there have been some bumps in the road. Sims has a very respectable 8.0 yards per attempt and has thrown eight touchdowns, but he’s completing just 55.3% of his pass attempts and has turned the ball over 14 times in six games – 10 interceptions, which is the second most in the nation, and six fumbles with four lost, which is the most in the nation. If there’s a silver lining it’s that eight of his interceptions came in the first three games, but then again four of his fumbles (three lost) have come in the last two games. The ball may well be up for grabs a couple of times on Saturday.
He’s also been sacked 11 times on the season and lost 74 yards there; like the fumbles, even more concerning for Tech is that much of that badness is recent. In their last two games Clemson got him five times for -38 yards and Boston College got him four times for -23 yards. Pass protection was an issue for the Jackets last year and has been again this year. Not exactly breaking news, but getting them into unfavorable down and distance will likely be a killer.
Where Sims has been much better is as a runner. With sacks removed, he’s second on the team in carries with 58 and leads the team in rushing yards with 349, good for 6.0 yards per carry. He also leads the team in rushing touchdowns with four, two ahead of running backs Jahmyr Gibbs and Jamious Griffin. Clemson is the only opponent who has truly held him in check on the ground; he had 69 yards against Florida State, 82 against UCF, 49 against Syracuse, 64 against Louisville, 15 against Clemson, and 70 against Boston College. The Irish defense will need a sharp focus on keeping Sims in the pocket and cutting down his options on designed runs.
True freshman Gibbs has seized the lead back role, averaging about 17 touches per game. He’s solid as a runner and is a significant threat as a receiver, with 15 catches for 206 yards and three touchdowns. Sophomore Jamious Griffin (seven touches per game) and redshirt junior Jordon Mason (22 touches, split between the opener and Boston College) have contributed at different times as well, with Mason also flashing some receiving ability. Sophomore Dontae Smith is a factor too, with a robust 6.9 yards per carry over 28 carries and an Alfonseca handful of receptions.
Each of their wide receivers averages over 13 yards per catch. The outside receivers both have size – Jalen Camp is 6’2″/220 and Malachi Carter is 6’3″/200 – while slot receiver Ahmarean Brown has shown some ability to get deep. Five other players (including Mason, Gibbs, and Griffin) average over 13 yards per reception. Their tight ends are a non-factor as receivers, but they have enough going on elsewhere in the lineup to make up for it. Tight coverage and preventing yards after the catch will be key for the Irish defense.
So how have they lost four games, you might wonder? Well, for one, they play hot potato with the ball – they rank 100th out of 101 teams in action with 18 total turnovers. Even with some teams in the list only playing one game, that’s bad. For another, they’ve been inconsistent. The offense went nuts against Louisville, but otherwise it’s ranged from so-so to MIA. Last, and perhaps most importantly…
Georgia Tech’s Defense
It has not been good. Clemson (73), Boston College (48), and Syracuse (37) – Syracuse! – all posted season highs in scoring against the Yellow Jackets, and UCF (49) missed its season high by two points. As much of a juggernaut as Clemson is, and as much as they’ve certainly let off the gas pedal in the second half (sometimes), they haven’t topped 50 against anyone else this year – even FCS Citadel, who fell 49-0. Georgia Tech ranks 72nd out of 101 in rush yards per carry allowed and 90th in rushing touchdowns allowed. They rank 77th in passer rating allowed and 100th in passing touchdowns allowed. Not surprisingly, they’re also 92nd in scoring defense. Clemson skews all those stats some, but even if the Clemson game had never happened they would rank 74th in rushing scores surrendered, 82nd in passing scores, and 76th in scoring defense. They gave up as many 60+ yard scoring drives to Boston College (four) as Notre Dame has given up all season.
The offense and defense both rank a semi-respectable 60th in SP+ somehow, but I would still put the majority of the blame for 2-4 on the defense. They’ve been in a bad spot due to turnovers pretty often, but even so, they’ve been more nuisance housefly than vicious stinging insect. Collins had to start some young and/or inexperienced guys this year, and it shows. There are four redshirt freshmen and sophomores among the defensive starters (three on the defensive line!), plus three true sophomores and two redshirt freshmen among the reserves. In contrast, Notre Dame’s defense has one sophomore starter and it’s Kyle Hamilton (the Irish are younger on the second unit, as you might expect, with three sophomores and a freshman).
So they’re young and they’re prone to letting people march up and down the field whatever way they want to. Not a good combo. On the positive side of the ledger, they’ve shown some ability to play behind the line of scrimmage, averaging 6.5 TFLs per game, and to pry the football away, as they’re second nationally with eight forced fumbles and third with seven recovered fumbles. At first glance that suggests their fumble luck has been pretty good – the expected recovery rate is 50% – but it’s worth a deeper look. Fumbles in the backfield have a higher expected recovery rate for the defense, and five of those eight forced fumbles have come courtesy of defensive ends Curtis Ryans and Jordan Domineck. They’ve also combined for 4.0 sacks and 6.5 TFLs; not gaudy, but certainly implies that they’re worthy of attention. Junior Charlie Thomas plays a bit of a hybrid role for them and is also one to watch. He moved from safety to linebacker last year and back to safety this year, but will creep up into the box regularly. He led the team with 9.5 TFLs last season; this year, he had 3.0 TFLs and 2.0 sacks against UCF and forced a fumble against Louisville. Thomas, Domineck, and senior linebacker David Curry pace the team with 4.0 TFLs each.
Perhaps a key matchup to watch in this game is Notre Dame’s outside receivers against Georgia Tech’s corners, who have some size – sophomore Zamari Walton is 6’3″/190 and junior Tre Swilling is 6’0″/200. I would expect Book to test them with some jump balls, and they may be able to be more competitive than Pitt’s corners were last week. I’m also curious to see if the Irish try to attack them in the running game, particularly Swilling – not that I’ve seen anything on film or anything, but he has played quite a bit over the last few seasons and doesn’t really jump off the stat sheet much. Junior Juanyeh Thomas and senior Tariq Carpenter man the deep middle; they’re third and fifth on the team in tackles this year and were third and second last year. Carpenter in particular is a load at 6’2″/226 and will be a key part of their run defense. Such as it is.
Oh, and I would be remiss not to mention our old friend Derrik Allen – you might remember that the former top 100 recruit transferred to Georgia Tech after falling down the depth chart at Notre Dame. Allen has fared slightly better in Atlanta; he has seen action as a reserve safety this season and has tallied eight tackles (four solo) in five games.
Prediction
As Brian Kelly himself admitted to doing (more on that below), we’ll disclose in our three questions here that we’re looking ahead to Clemson. We have two key questions about the game itself this week, and one bigger picture question.
1) Can Georgia Tech stop the run?
As noted above, a Boston College team that’s pretty bad at running just ran all over Georgia Tech. In the writers’ room the other day, burger23 pointed out that the Eagles had 331 yards rushing in their first five games and then ran for 264 against Georgia Tech. Louisville, UCF, Syracuse (comparatively speaking), and of course Clemson all did what they wanted on the ground too. Notre Dame and offensive coordinator Tommy Rees have posted a 64/36 run-heavy split in play selection; we know the Irish are going to try to establish the run. If Tech can’t provide an obstacle to that, it’s going to be a very long day for them. If they can, they’ll have a chance to bog the game down and make things wacky.
2) Can the Yellow Jackets take care of the ball?
Georgia Tech’s only turnover-free game of the year came against Louisville, a game which not coincidentally represents half of their win total. Their only other positive turnover margin game was the opener against Florida State, which not coincidentally is the other half of their win total. As noted above, Jeff Sims has turned the ball over 14 times. Players not named Jeff Sims have lost an additional four fumbles. There were four other fumbles that they recovered themselves. That’s ten interceptions and twelve fumbles, eight of them lost, in just six games, which is an awful lot of carelessness for a team that likely can afford none of it on Saturday.
Georgia Tech has a very narrow margin for error to maintain a path to a win. If, in the Halloween spirit, they treat the football like a kid treats a popcorn ball in a trick or treat bag, forget it. Or a penny – remember when people would give pennies? Do they still do that? I mean, talk about a letdown. This house gave Kit-Kats, this one gave Snickers, this one gave M&Ms, this one gave… a penny. One damn penny? Pretty cool to be a wet blanket and a cheapskate… But I digress.
3) Will Irish fans see what they need to see to feel any better about the Clemson matchup?
Unless you’ve been living under a rock, you’re no doubt aware that every week has served as a mini-referendum on the Clemson game. Chase Brice had some success throwing? Ha! Good luck stopping Trevor Lawrence! Clobbered USF? So what, so would Clemson’s fourth string! Had some trouble initially with Jordan Travis? Well how badly is Travis Etienne going to gash you? Smack around a pathetic Pitt offense and light up a pretty decent defense? Whatever, Clemson would beat them worse! With Clemson’s 73-7 win over Georgia Tech already in the books this season, this week will be no different. It’s understandable, and it’s also exhausting. I can only imagine how the players feel about it.
That said, there may be some things the Irish can show this week that will help the fans be a bit more sanguine: Ian Book showing composure and precision in the passing game. Somebody – whether it’s Lawrence Keys, or Avery Davis, or Joe Wilkins, or whoever – showing ability as a true complimentary piece in the receiving corps. Continued dominance from the offensive line. Continued dominance from the defense, which is second in scoring defense and fourth in total defense among teams that have played more than one game. (Fun fact: Notre Dame has given up one more point in five games than Alabama gave up to Ole Miss. Just saying.) A ruthless efficiency on both sides of the ball. And, mercifully, the final whistle before kickoff of the Clemson game.
In answer to a question from Pete Sampson after the Pitt game, Kelly obliquely referenced intentionally looking ahead to Clemson in a manner that we found refreshing and likely positive. The essence of his comments was that he told the team that just winning wasn’t good enough for them to get to where they want to be, with the clear implication that where they want to be is “able to beat Clemson.” Did he overplay that hand with the team? It’s possible, of course, but my guess is no. Georgia Tech has some athletes, no question, but they don’t have enough that they should be able to make this a competitive game. Notre Dame is fresh off its most complete game of the season and seems to be hitting on all cylinders, with a one-on-one talent advantage at almost every position. If the Irish are focused, they’re going to take care of business definitively and set the stage for the biggest game Notre Dame Stadium has seen since November 13, 1993.
If this is, in fact, a cakewalk, I’d like to see ND get up a few scores by running the ball, then pushing the pass game. At least get some flow going with Book & receivers before Clemson comes to town.
It seems like ND has had several games in the past few years where there’s been an agenda – either to get the run game or pass game going – by using that method of offense exclusively. Instead of using the thing that isn’t working, I’d prefer they dominate with the part of the offense that is humming along and then move to the part that needs working on. For example, if the Louisville game had started with more runs, would ND have put more points on the board and then had less pressure to complete some passes. Go into halftime up something like 28-3 after 180 rushing yards and then work on some vanilla passes in the 3rd quarter.
I think Louisville was a tough one because of the weather. Not fully excusing it, we should’ve played better, but it was impossible for either team to thrown downfield because of the wind, so both teams could overplay the run with little to no fear. They also had one guy play absolutely out of his mind, LB Monty Montgomery, and wreck some otherwise well set up plays. Montgomery had 11 solo tackles and 13 total tackles in that game, versus 13 solo and 21 total in his other five games *combined* this year. His previous career high for solo tackles was 4, hit once last year and twice this year, and for total tackles was 5, also hit once last year and twice this year.
Rees and Taylor probably drew up a game plan that didn’t account for a game-wrecking LB in the middle of the field. He even chased down Tyree on a screen that I think was just about to be a house call.
That said, yeah, I’d like to see the regular playbook open from the jump. Not time to tinker with this or that, just use this game as a tune-up for the whole thing (if possible).
Good points. It will be very curious to me to see how much Tyree gets. His touches have been down the last 2 weeks and he was basically abandoned to go against a tough front vs Pitt. And C’Bo is from Georgia so I’m sure it’ll be a nice homecoming and he’ll get a chance to carry it a few times.
Hoping they are installing but holding onto some slick ways to get Tyree into space against Clemson.
This is a random aside; I love this website, think it’s easily the highest quality ND blog out there. Thing is, it took me years to find y’all after you left SB Nation/OFD (I wasn’t paying much attention to football at the time that all went down). And 18 Stripes doesn’t come up until the *fourth page* of a google search for “Notre Dame Football Blog.” Is there anything we can do to support the blog other than continuing to come here? My 18 Stripes premium subscription is nice and all but think I could do more 😉 I really don’t have a big social media presence so can’t really signal boost much.
All I got for my premium subscription was a Charlie Weis autographed Ruth’s Chris napkin.
But seriously I 100% second this comment. 18 Stripes has the best ND sports coverage by a mile.
With some of the anti-trust legal proceedings around Google, there have been some studies done showing that the quality of Google’s search results has deteriorated as they have been more influenced by $$ and less by providing the best results. Kind of a text book monopoly.
Still doesn’t mean I’ll be Binging anytime soon. Would be much too embarrassing.
Ah yeah, they sent out the Weis napkins after the Ty Willingham used golf tees finally ran out. They must’ve had 100,000 of those things.
Because all hands are intelligent and respectful (and there is a high level of shared knowledge about ND). Starts with Eric and The Staff, but really includes everyone.
Much appreciated, man. Seriously. This is a labor of love for us, comments like this mean a lot!
Not sure what y’all can do to amplify our profile, but following us on Twitter and retweeting our stuff is a good start. Thanks again!
Thank you!
We have a really great community.
I’ll just piggy-back off of Brendan & Eric’s comments and say “Thanks!” It means a lot to know you all are appreciating our work. We don’t need to litigate who does what, or how much, or if one of us is even actually a part of this, but from the whole team, we do this for you.
Merci beaucoup for this detailed and insightful laydown — helped me greatly get a better feel for a team I haven’t seen at all. Not that I get to see a ton of teams over here!
It was, these previews are always great. Georgia Tech might have something with this QB in a few years but now have to take their lumps as they keep switching their whole identity from the option to a more modern offense.
Speaking of that, if you’re GT recruiting against UGA and Clemson and all the other great southern teams close by, why not run the option? I think it’s smart for a school like them or Kansas or Indiana/Illnois in the Big 10 that’s never going to recruit stronger teams than the powerhouses in their conference to at least be totally different and try to win by going out of left field rather than be 80% as good as the top teams at their own style of game.
But I’m kinda crazy like that. Kinda if you don’t have a great fastball, don’t worry about it just try to develop a knuckleball and maybe throw off the other team. If you can’t be better, try to be different.
Not saying they should go with exclusively 250 pound linemen and go full service academy (even though they’re a lot bigger now these days too) but so many high schools run that style of offense you would think they could get talent (thinking guys like Zaire and Finke, whose OH school hardly ever threw the ball, if I recall correctly).
I concur with this view. Which raises the question of why Paul Johnson was not marginally more succesful,
Yeah, that’s a natural hole in my theory. Not too many great college level option coaches and Paul Johnson surely was one and he couldn’t really get them to a level of seriously competing so I don’t really blame GT for switching gears. And their new coach seems almost like a Louisville situation where he knows what he is doing, has a hotshot QB and RB recruit and will take them probably about as far as their option game was going.
Maybe Georgia Tech being in Atlanta and a decent enough school has some upside compared to other P5 schools that really have no chance of being powerhouses. But it’s just tough to see them getting out of the shadows of UGA to be the premier program in the state.
All good thoughts.
However, I go back to the days of dead fish being thrown at our players — also the Rudy game (but who knew)…and even when granddad (Dean of Chemistry and knew the Rock) talked about a couple of classic matchups with them way back when the Klan marched against Catholics. So above your valuable ponderings about how marginal programs can stand out in a tough market, I confess I am ambivalent about the success of GT.
Great write-up. My only tweak: notwithstanding that our ranking was lower and we already had a loss, I would argue the 2005 USC game was a bigger game than this Clemson game will be (regardless of whether Lawrence is playing, but if he isn’t it becomes an even easier call). Lest we forget: had we held on in 2005, we would have been in the BCS title game. By contrast, if we win next week, we’ll very very likely still have to win in the ACCCG to make the playoff.
Yeah, that is true. But Notre Dame had already beaten a then ranked #3 Michigan team in 05, so USC was just the final stepping stone for glory, especially with their winning streak at the time.
This year, Clemson regular season is just the first big game. No matter what happens, I would think there’s time to rebound even with a loss, and the chance to avenge it in the ACCCG (though unlikely) to still punch the ticket. Because I assume a 11-1 ND team as conference champs gets a playoff bid.
But I would agree what you’re saying while this Clemson game is the biggest home game coming up since 05 USC, it’s still not really clearing the bar of how big that game was at the time.
Yep. Assuming we and Clemson win today, I think it is the clear #2 game at ND stadium in 25 years (and I guess Stanford 2012 is the clear #3).
It’s possible Penn State got in over ND to play Texas in 2005?
Either way, 2005 was crazy because the schedule sucked (the early season big wins were ultimately flops from Pitt and UM), there was a defeat to a 6-loss(!) team, and absolutely nothing after the USC game that would’ve increased Notre Dame’s profile.
It’d be like beating Clemson this year, but UNC wasn’t on the schedule, and we lost to Pitt but still made the title game anyway.
But, things maybe would’ve broken ND’s way in 2005, especially LSU losing the SEC title game.
I feel reasonably confident that ND would have been #2 in each poll at the end of the regular season after beating supposedly all-time-great USC (combined with the Return to Glory vibes that would have been going on), and that probably would have been enough to be in the title game given the weighting polls got then.
I think there’s a decent chance it would have been Penn State instead of ND. Our loss to Sparty was bad; they finished 5-6 that year. Plus, our Return to Glory vibes would have been offset by ESPN pushing hard for a Joe Paterno lifetime achievement award.
Also, for as much as I loved the 2005 team (freshman year!), the thought of that defense chasing Vince Young around the Rose Bowl makes my stomach hurt.
Jurko putting up 14 points on Clemson in the first quarter is an NDN fever dream.
I am certainly not part of the Circlejurk but watching Clemson get BC’d is hilarious.
Since no one had mentioned it, Brendan, I just want to applaud your choice of photos for this article. Ndukwe laying out Calvin Johnson was a great play