Listen. It’s been a rough couple of years for Mike Brey and company. You could be forgiven for thinking this past March that things were approaching an ugly end for Brey’s tenure in South Bend.
But my how things are changing. A reenergized Brey, reconfigured coaching staff, and renewed roster, featuring a much-hyped graduate transfer (Paul Atkinson from Yale) and talented local freshmen class (JR Konieczny and Blake Wesley), give this program a vastly different feel than just six months ago.
Enter Tuesday’s commitment of near-five-star recruit JJ Starling, originally from New York and now attending school in nearby LaLumiere High School in LaPorte. With offers from just about everywhere, Notre Dame went toe-to-toe with Syracuse (which is his de facto hometown school) and Duke (which is Duke), in addition to his other finalists Stanford and Northwestern, and came away with a massive recruiting win.
The conventional wisdom had Duke and Cuse as Starling’s likely landing spots, but Notre Dame always lurked in the background. Starling made multiple visits to South Bend. This, of course, includes one in which Mike Brey picked him up in LaPorte in a Ferrari, clearly signaling that Brey was going all-out for Starling’s commitment.
Source: Video of @NDmbb coach @NDMikeBrey leaving LaLumiere with point guard JJ Starling…
No lie…That is the car Brey used to ferry Starling back to #NotreDame campus to begin his official visit this weekend pic.twitter.com/NkoR5oHYAV
— Tom Noie (@tnoieNDI) September 3, 2021
The all-out pitch got the job done, earning the commitment of one of the very best recruits of the Mike Brey era at Notre Dame. The Ferrari ploy notwithstanding, I think it is safe to say that Brey pledged the keys to the program, as he often does with his top guard recruits, to Starling. With the NBA undoubtedly in his sights, Starling felt that leading the Irish offense was the right opportunity for him, even more than Duke’s NBA pipeline offered.
Let’s not beat around the bush, Starling’s commitment is a flat-out stunner for this program. This is a genuinely program-changing commitment for a program that truly needed one. Starling is a bona fide top recruit in this class, so much so that he is unlikely to be around for four years. He’s just that good. And lucky for us, he’ll be spending his college days running the show in South Bend.
Rankings
247: 4 star – 33rd overall – 7th ranked CG
ESPN: 4 star – 27th overall – 6th ranked SG
Rivals: 4 star – 40th overall – 8th ranked PG
247 Composite: 4 star – 33rd overall – 6th ranked CG
Highlights
ELITE scoring threat: I’ve watched a ton of videos on JJ Starling, and he is just an elite, elite, elite off-ball threat. Catch-and-shoot is as pure as you’ll see. Can also get to the basket easily with quick first step and excellent handle. Outstanding finisher around the rim. Elevates easily, finishes with both hands, and uses his long arms to get around defenders. Doesn’t need a midrange game at this level but occasionally shows some ability there as well. Very smooth and polished scorer all around.
Range: Loves to shoot from way behind the arc (NBA range easily on some of these), and it’s effortless. He’s just so pure, especially off the catch but becoming a threat off the dribble as well. I don’t think many freshmen are genuine threats from deep, but Starling almost certainly will be from day one. Plug-and-play shooting guard right out of the gates.
Point guard abilities: Will be interesting to see if he’s truly running point right away or Brey keeps him off the ball for a while. Make no mistake, Starling is a scorer first and can do so at all three levels. Doesn’t show a ton of playmaking for others (from what I’ve seen), other than a fair amount of drive-and-kicks (which this team could really use). I’m betting he’ll be a work-in-progress as a true point guard.
Speed and athleticism: A true one-man fast break. Gets up the floor in a hurry, very sure handle and comfortable through traffic, and obviously an explosive finisher. Makes it all look so easy. Will get a ton of easy buckets off misses and steals, another thing this team desperately needs. Haven’t seen a ton of him on defense (especially on the ball). But clearly likes to be a rover and hunt for steals to get out on the break. Doesn’t always make for the best habits for playing college-level defense but brings outstanding length and athleticism to work with on that end.
Fitting into the Irish Roster
Without question, an instant impact from day one. Honestly, I don’t think Starling commits to Notre Dame without an immediate starting role. So I’d peg him in the starting lineup right away.
That said, when Starling arrives next fall, he will be walking into a pretty interesting backcourt situation. Cormac Ryan and Trey Wertz should be back for their 5th years. Dane Goodwin is already on record as staying for his COVID-freebie 5th year. Plus freshman Blake Wesley comes in with big expectations for steady minutes (remember his Freshman All-ACC talk during last year’s commitment).
How will Brey manage those backcourt minutes? Does he resist his preference for experience in favor of higher upside young guys? Do 4 of those guys start around a big like Elijah Taylor? My way too early prediction is Ryan-Wertz-Starling are in the starting lineup with Wesley and Goodwin coming off the bench. But there’s a long time until then. To be honest, the team desperately needs to see some major steps forward from the older guys this season to even have them in this conversation.
Impact
This is what major talents like Starling (and, to a lesser extent, Wesley) bring to the table. Everyone’s expectations get taken up another level. There is an internal competitiveness that is absolutely necessary to compete with the likes of Duke, North Carolina, and Virginia in the ACC. No one’s spot in the lineup is safe.
It’s very possible that Starling walks in next year, takes the reins of this offense, and heads for the NBA after leading the Irish to a fun, explosive season. That would be a very good outcome for Notre Dame, as it would likely see them back in the NCAA Tournament where they belong and likely competing for more.
But I see him more of a two or three year player, perhaps in the mold of Demetrius Jackson. Better, more recent comps might be Illinois’ Ayo Dosunmu or Florida’s Tre Mann from last year’s draft. Both were very highly ranked recruits. But, like Starling, they were in the 20-30 range and with a lot to prove before turning pro. Both were given significant roles early and got better over time with their respective programs. This could be the dream outcome for Notre Dame, getting an incredible talent like Starling but with some time to actually develop and build around him.
No matter what his future holds, JJ Starling’s commitment gives Mike Brey’s program a major lift and could help turn the page to an exciting – and winning – era for the Irish.
If Goodwin plays a 5th he will start. No way Brey will not have him come off the bench. Brey will play small and try to compare the team to the 14-15 roster.
Starling
Wesley
Ryan
Goodwin
Taylor or Campbell or Zona (who ever does not start will be the 8th and 10/11th men)
Wertz- first off the bench to play the 1 & 2
JR- second off the bench to play 2,3,4
Sanders/Carmody- not sure what roles they will have, possibly more of a defender. I could see one or both looking for a change of scenery after this season. Carmody could possibly move on and play 2 more seasons. Sanders would have 3 seasons left.
I’d like to see Brey land Ven-Allen Lubin, he would be the type of athletic combo forward ND strikes out on. Upgrade athletically at the 4 and could possibly play the 5 in some super small line ups.
Yeah, I was thinking along similar lines with respect to small lineups next year. When Laszewski and Atkinson graduate, the talent on our team is gonna be heavily weighted towards the guards. Unless Taylor really shows something this year, I could see us pursuing another grad transfer big to bridge the gap to Campbell.
But the 4 spot seems like it will be essentially exclusively played by our bigger wings (Goodwin/JR/maybe Sanders), and the rest of the lineup will be guards. Should make for an exciting brand of basketball with so many interchangeable parts and a LOT of shooting.
With the caveat that all of this is meaningless until we see how these guys develop this season:
I think Brey has already shown a willingness to bring Goodwin off the bench and has even said that he likes that role for him overall. It’s just really hard for me to see him credibly play the 4 in the way that Connaughton did. He’s just not nearly as strong or athletic.
Brey was quoted yesterday as saying he thinks Wesley is a future pro and may not be around for four years because of it. High praise obviously, but also recognition that Brey sees him as a core piece sooner rather than later. I think you might be right by including him as a starter and bringing Wertz off the bench (or perhaps Wesley in that pseudo-4 role).
I’m super high on Elijah Taylor and think he’s the perfect kind of 4 around 1 big man – tough, athletic, energetic. I’m penciling him into next year’s starting lineup, sight unseen.
Agree completely on Lubin. Type of player this roster needs and could be in line for minutes early.
Not really sure what to make of Sanders. Seems like maybe not a Brey type of player but someone that a Shaka Smart or Leonard Hamilton would really know what to do with. We’ll see how he comes along.
Another couple of potential wild cards for the roster next year:
Is there any chance Hubb decides to take a 5th year? I tend to think no, because if we have a good season this year, he will likely be a big part of that and probably try to capitalize on that by exploring his pro options. If we are bad again, I could see Brey essentially saying “look, you’ve been a 4 year starter and it hasn’t worked out, it’s time to try something else.” Not sure if there exists a middle ground scenario where Hubb wants to run the show for a 5th year and Brey agrees despite the logjam at guard.
Probably a more interesting scenario – is there any chance Laszewski takes a 5th year with the potential that this team has? He seems to have some fringe 2nd round draft buzz, and I’m sure plenty of overseas options, so it’s probably unlikely as well. But adding his shooting and size to the Starling/Wertz/Wesley/Ryan/Goodwin core would certainly be an exciting prospect.
Here are the 4 man options in 22-23:
Lasz- would be the best option, just seems doubtful he would come back for a 5th. He turned 22 in July.
Dane if he plays the 5th- has played plenty at the 4 before. He actually averaged 5.2 boards per game last season which for his size was quite good and was 3rd on team (Lasz at 7.3 and Durham at 5.5). He is not a great defender versus wings, so not sure how much he would be versus bigger forwards. He was particularly abysmal last season because IMO he played too many minutes to be effective/efficient on both ends. Bottom line- he would be better playing no more than 28 mpg instead of 33.
JR- in time he might be an option as a small 4, fairly athletic just needs to add some weight.
Wesley- Brey noted he was an option to play a small 4. I guess that would make sense if the other team was playing a small 4 (example GA Tech if Usher is at the 4).
Whoever does not start at the 5. It would seem Taylor possibly in rare instances. Zona and Campbell do not seem athletic enough to cover on the perimeter.
Regular/grad transfer or a 22 recruit such as Lubin.
As far as Hubb coming back for a 5th- it’s time for move on. He will play for pay somewhere, but it will not be the NBA.
Thank you so much for this. Been missing any good hoops news!