An old Big East match-up will be rekindled on Saturday when Notre Dame takes on the Villanova Wildcats. This game will be played as part of a doubleheader called the Never Forget Tribute Classic in Newark, NJ. The event will be held in partnership with the Families of Freedom Scholarship Fund, which benefits the children of victims of the September 11, 2001 attacks.
I loved the old Big East and some of the match-ups we got playing in that conference. Villanova was high on the list, so this is a very exciting one to me. I wouldn’t complain if we found the Wildcats (or Marquette, Georgetown, or UConn) on the schedule a bit more regularly.
It feels like we’re firmly entrenched in the ACC now (a championship will do that) and have been there a long time, but this game was not even five years ago:
One notable development since then: Villanova won the freakin’ national championship last year. They returned a decent amount of that team (including Big East POY favorite Josh Hart), added some nice new pieces, and have started the season 9-0 en route to the top spot in the rankings entering Saturday.
Notre Dame, despite an identical 9-0 record, enters the game quite a bit more under-the-radar. Both have some impressive performances on their record, both have sleep-walked a couple of times. Villanova certainly has the best win, a 3-point victory over Purdue in West Lafayette. They generally have faced a better schedule as well.
No matter how you slice it, the Irish are pretty significant underdogs on Saturday. KenPom favors the Wildcats by 7 points with a 74% chance of winning the game. A 1-in-4 chance to win isn’t that unlikely, so what can we expect from this one? How might Notre Dame make some national noise and pull off the upset?
Short Rotations?
Mike Brey has earned some criticism, including around here, about his bench usage this and every season. He is prone to revert to his 6.5 man rotation whenever things start getting real. This year, despite seemingly having more viable options than ever, he has reverted to his usual self. That means players like Matt Ryan, TJ Gibbs, Austin Torres, and John Mooney are more likely to be after-thoughts than feature players on Saturday.
Jay Wright doesn’t exactly have the same reputation, but this year he has certainly employed a similar bench strategy. In fact, his bench minutes (26%) come in at 313th nationally, compared to 31% and 208th for Brey. Phil Booth is likely to be out again with a knee injury, which leaves Wright with 7 guys to play. Like Notre Dame’s “big four”, Josh Hart, Mikal Bridges, Kris Jenkins, and Jalen Brunson will probably see 35 minutes each or more. Starting big man Darryl Reynolds will earn a few more minutes than counterpart Martinas Geben, and Donte DiVincenzo and Eric Paschall will get some run off the bench.
Paschall has yet to really make the impact that many expected in his first eligible season with Villanova after transferring from Fordham as its leading scorer. DiVincenzo was a Notre Dame recruiting target that I liked a lot (we ended up with Rex Pflueger instead, so all’s well that ends well) and is working his way into the lineup. He has terrific lead guard potential but hasn’t yet really shown that with Hart and Brunson leading the Wildcats.
If you’re looking for “sleeper” impact, it’s more likely coming from the Irish bench. Against a team that likes to play small, Rex Pflueger is going to play and play a lot. He will be saddled with the difficult task of trying to make life difficult for Josh Hart. We’re all biased here obviously, but a lot of us think that Rex is one of the best perimeter defenders in the country. He’s becoming increasingly capable on offense, but his defense is why he has entered Brey’s circle of trust already.
On and off the court, @rexpflueger_1 always entertains with great 3-pointer reactions: pic.twitter.com/btX3RyDn4f
— Matt Cashore (@mattcashore) December 7, 2016
I wouldn’t be surprised if Rex matches or exceeds his season-high in minutes (29 against Fort Wayne). He won’t shut Hart down, but can he keep him from shooting over 50% from the field (he’s 55% on the season)? Or, can Rex even just run Hart off the three-point line, where he is shooting 44%(!) on 4-5 attempts per game? That would be a “win” that could help the Irish pull off the upset.
Point Guard Mismatch?
On paper, this looks like a substantial mismatch. The former five-star recruit-turned-national champion against the former three-star, undersized, rough-around-the-edges kid from New Jersey. Matt Farrell turned heads by winning the MOP award in the Legends Classic after two unbelievable games against Colorado and Northwestern. But going up against the 6’2″ Jalen Brunson, fresh off a 26-point performance against LaSalle, is a different test entirely.
Brunson is far more athletic and far more efficient from the field than Farrell. Farrell is probably the better floor general (evidenced by his 3 assist/TO ratio compared to Brunson’s 2). He’s also back home in New Jersey for this one, and that’s exactly the weird type of narrative that college basketball seems to give us all the time. I have my doubts that Farrell will really be able to slow Brunson down, but can he at least match him offensively to try to neutralize that match-up?
We’ve doubted Farrell every step of the way, but the junior point guard has impressed on the biggest stages so far. He will always look outmatched on paper, but he may just have that “it” factor that allows him to rise to just about every occasion. He has another huge opportunity to add to his growing cult status among Irish fans on Saturday, and it may just be his biggest test yet.
All-ACC Bonzie Colson?
Colson has been incredible for the Irish this season. He is averaging a double-double, one of the most efficient players in the country even with a high usage rate, and the third-most valuable player in the country according to College Basketball Reference. Colson is also a terrific rebounder despite his short stature.
👀 Look who is the ACC Player of the Week!👀
🙌 @BonzieColson 🙌
👉 https://t.co/zcVj4pxfMi pic.twitter.com/J3piqNM341— Notre Dame MBB (@NDmbb) December 5, 2016
No matter what, I can’t imagine Bonzie not having a great game. 24 and 12, something like that, maybe even a touch better. He’s just a great player with a knack for the big stage. A big game from Bonzie isn’t necessarily the key to an Irish upset (necessary but not sufficient, probably), but he does do all the “efficiency” things that contribute to wins. Great percentage from the floor, unbelievable free throw shooting, and of course, rebounding.
Villanova doesn’t have a lot of weaknesses, but they aren’t a great rebounding team. They are much better cleaning up the defensive boards (23rd according to KenPom), but Bonzie is a different animal and might be their toughest test in that regard. As seems to be the case every year, Irish fans freak out about rebounding as their team’s Achilles’ heel. But yet again, they have shown themselves to be fine if not good. Notre Dame has been a top-75 offensive rebounding team so far, whereas Villanova is a sub-200 team in the same category.
Can Colson (and perhaps Geben) give Notre Dame a few extra possessions by outworking the Wildcats on the boards? This is one of those games-within-the-game that certainly cannot go the other way. If Villanova gets more second chance points than Notre Dame, the Irish probably don’t have much of a chance. But if Colson and the Irish pick up another “win” in this category, then they might be able to get the win that counts in the standings as well.
A Poor Man’s Villanova?
Villanova plays small. Notre Dame plays small. Villanova has a very efficient offense. Notre Dame has a very efficient offense. Villanova doesn’t foul a lot or turn the ball over. Notre Dame doesn’t foul a lot or turn the ball over. We talked about the short benches. Plenty of experience. Three-point shooting. You know the deal.
You can nitpick about the offensive end. The Irish are a bit better here. Wildcats a bit better there. But Villanova is one of the very top teams in the country, whereas Notre Dame is a very good team still looking to break through. That gap is very clearly based on their performance on the defensive end. Villanova is a top-15 KenPom defense, but Notre Dame is just barely sneaking into the top-100.
Now, there is cause for optimism for Irish fans on that end as well. Steve Vasturia (I haven’t talked about him yet, but he’s averaging 19 PPG in his last six games) and Rex Pflueger give Notre Dame an excellent perimeter duo. Geben showed against Iowa that he can be an interior weapon defensively. Colson and V.J. Beachem create problems with their length. Gibbs and Farrell at least give you energy at the point guard position.
And, yes, Notre Dame is only 84th according the Pomeroy, but a bit of that is still baked-in from last year and preseason predictions. Qualitatively, they look better, even if just in spurts this season. Is that enough to overcome the 7 points-per-100 possessions that Pomeroy’s numbers say? Well, obviously, most people are skeptical.
Saturday afternoon is a huge opportunity for Notre Dame. The Irish can steal the headlines for the weekend and move to 10-0. They can show that all their talk about the defensive end is more than just rhetoric and wishful thinking. They can prove yet again that their great offense translates games against some of the best teams in the country. More than anything, they have a chance to firmly establish themselves as a real contender this season rather than just a product of a thus-far-weak schedule.
Prediction
Moral victories usually suck. Inside Brey’s locker room, they are spending every second working on earning a real one, not a moral one. But I have to say, I’m kinda expecting a moral victory on Saturday.
I think this game will be competitive for most of its 40 minutes. That, in an of itself, would go a long way towards establishing Notre Dame as a real top 25 team this season in terms of national perception. Long-term, that would be a pretty good outcome. At the end of the day, though, I think Villanova will be able to pull out a 2-3 possession victory with a couple of stops and enough execution down the stretch. After their national championship, that is now becoming a hallmark of Jay Wright’s program.
I’m hardly the only person that doubts Notre Dame will actually pick up a win, and I would imagine that most see this as a more comfortable Wildcat victory than I do. But the Irish have been making a habit of proving people wrong in regular season games like this under Brey, especially in the last couple of seasons. They’ve even won their last four games against defending national champs, which is a bizarre but neat stat. And of course, the Irish have more wins over number one teams than almost any other program in history.
So I have my doubts. But here’s hoping Notre Dame can do it again and prove me and the rest of the nation wrong.
Notre Dame 76
Villanova 82
That video was fun to re-watch. The only heartbreaker was Abro sitting in the locker room in a tie.
A couple of things I think we need to do to win:
It might be slightly underplayed, but a lot of our main guys love playing back east. For Onions, this is a great Philly match-up. Jersey boy Farrell is going to love being home, as will NY man Ryan. It ain’t Boston, but we know Bonz loves the spotlight and being a road dawg. This is probably as “neutral” as a neutral site can be for us in this sort of game.
We’re really going to learn a lot tomorrow. It isn’t a season-definer if it goes poorly, but if it goes well, it is a big springboard to use on our way to the brutality of January.
My two things I’ll be watching closely:
Farrell cannot turn the ball over. I think he’s going to struggle on the defensive end, but I think he’ll also get into double figures himself. If he can do that while limiting the offensive mistakes, I’ll take that every time he’s matched up with an elite PG.
Beachem needs to be efficient. He always seems to get his points, but his shot really needs to be falling. 15 points on 15 shots isn’t going to do it tomorrow. This is a chance, on a huge stage, to elevate his draft stock. Something like 3-7 from deep, plus 5-8 inside the arc, with a few free throws added in for good measure, would go a long way toward making me feel good about a win here.
It’s weird; we’ve gotten to a point with Brey that I no longer doubt his ability to keep us close in big games. I, like alstein, expect this one to come down to a few key possessions. When the offense invariably goes cold, can the defense come through with those 3 or 4 key stops? Or will Villanova’s offense be too much to handle?
If we can split 1 of 2 against Purdue and Villanova with no bad losses heading into ACC play, I have to imagine Brey would be ecstatic. I know I would be.
Yup. A split would be a dream.
I definitely echo the thoughts that this feels like a close game. If we can be fighting with under 5 to go, we’ll definitely gain some respect, win or lose.
I totally agree with MikeyB on what seem to be the keys. I feel like Steve and Bonzie are so solid (especially in big games) that we can expect a good amount of production from each of them. I feel like it’s the other two of our “Big 4” that will have a lot to say about the result of this one. VJ hasn’t been shooting very well lately, but if he can resemble his 2016 NCAA Tournament self, that propels our offense to a new level. Farrell has done nothing but impress on the big stage, but like you mentioned, Brunson will be a very tough match-up for him. I trust Farrell to run the offense, but if he can hit threes and make big plays down the stretch like he did in Brooklyn, we have everything we need for an upset.
Should be a fun one! I hadn’t seen the highlights of that 2012 game before, but if this game is anything close to that, we’re in for a treat.
I’m just worried Farrell will be torched on defense against Brunson. Other than that, I think this game will present a unique challenge, and will have us better prepared to beat Purdue next weekend, win or lose this game.
My prediction: Nova 87, ND 79
A game that can certainly show this team what it needs to work on as the season progresses into ACC play. Will be so amped to here Raftery rave about VJ’s threes early in the game! Will we have the Onions to finish this game out, aside from Steve “onions” vasturia?
The old Big East matchup I want back is Marquette. I hated playing them every year; it seemed like whichever team was ranked lower always ended up putting up a great fight, but their guys always seemed to win unconventionally (a lot of Bonzie-esque guys that you didn’t think should be able to beat you). Their fans traveled well and could be loud. I hated the team at the time, so I think that means it would really be a great matchup to bring back.