Our #1 Notre Dame Fighting Irish men’s lacrosse (5-1, 0-0 ACC) open ACC play welcoming the #3 Syracuse Orangemen (9-2, 1-0 ACC) to Arlotta Stadium on Saturday at 2:00 (ACCN). The Irish hope to continue their great success against the Orange and avoid the top-rank curse that has plagued teams all season, including the Irish earlier this Spring.
The Opponent
Notre Dame is 10-10 versus Syracuse all-time, but winning the last 6, and 9 of the last 11. The last 5 have been particularly rough for the Orange, with Irish wins by 7, 14, 18, 7, and most recently 8 goals in Syracuse last year. Pat Kavanagh has been particularly effective against this opponent, tallying an incredible 43 points in 5 games.
This Gary Gait-led Syracuse team enters this contest in much different circumstances than previous years and is one of the hottest teams in the country. They have wins over Vermont, #18 Colgate, Manhattan, Utah, High Point, #8 Johns Hopkins, Delaware, Hobart, and a recent dismantling of #5 Duke, 10-4. Their only losses are both in overtime, against #6 Army and now-#12 Maryland.
The main man on their roster is #22 Joey Spallina, who has accumulated a massive 62 points this season. He flanked on the attack by dangerous Owen Hiltz and Lehigh transfer Christian Mule. Midfielders Michael Leo and Thomas Finn add extra offensive firepower. This unit is young, but very slick and polished.
While the potent offense was a known quantity coming into the season, it is on the other side of the field where Syracuse has made massive progress. Will Mark (57%, 9.1 gaa) is probably the top goalie in the country not named Liam Entenmann. LSM Saam Alexo and Defenders Billy Dwan and Caden Kol are extremely disruptive. At faceoff, the tandem of Tufts transfer Mason Kohn (62%) and John Mullen (62%) have found success all season.
The Matchup
On paper, the Irish have an edge over Syracuse in nearly every category, but the margins are not much. Our friends at Lacrossereference.com indicate Syracuse has a slight edge with their specialists when adjusted for opponent, but give the Irish a healthy lead in adjusted offensive efficiency (43% to 36%) and a miniscule lead in adjusted defensive efficiency (25% to 25.1%). Cumulative efficiencies balance heavily towards the Irish (47.4% to 40.5%).
The huge unknown is how this Syracuse team will perform on the road. Their only true road game so far has been a win over 3-5 Hobart, and their most recent games at Arlotta have been decidedly one-sided. What we do know is that they have been impressive so far, and their performance against Duke cannot be dismissed.
Our Three Questions
This Syracuse team is clearly improved from those visitors to Arlotta the past few years, but does this exciting, young team have enough to defeat the Irish? We think not, and will be looking at three areas to confirm if our thoughts are correct:
- Parity at the faceoff dot: Mason Kohn is having a great year, but so is the Irish unit. We’d also argue the Notre Dame unit has been tested more consistently. Regardless, when considering possessions gained by the Irish ride, Syracuse would need a significant edge at the dot to overcome Irish offensive efficiency. If Lynch and company gain parity or better, the math will be hard for Syracuse to overcome.
- Syracuse aggression: To our observation, Syracuse has found defensive success being aggressive and taking risks, and it has the talent to be effective with this strategy. They are also probably coming into this game with tremendous confidence after completely shutting down Duke. But they have tried this approach against this attack unit before and it did not work out well for them. And should their aggression lead to penalties, the Irish man-up is near automatic. The Irish are at their best when moving the ball, and this goes a long way in neutralizing any aggressive tendencies.
- Defensive discipline: The Syracuse offense isn’t big, but they are very quick and very slick. There will be a lot of Canadian box lacrosse elements on the field, and that takes some getting used to. If the defense gets caught ball watching, it will be a long day. If they stay focused and close passing lanes with their size and ranginess, Syracuse won’t have much opportunity to do what they hope to do.
Early morning rain should be long gone by game time, and temperature should be a comfortable mid-50 for the home athletes and fans. A home top-5 matchup is an exciting event, and the fans should see the Irish take another step forward.
#GoIrish
Great article! What’s a Canadian box?
Box lacrosse is the indoor form of the game played on an covered ice-rink field. It’s huge in Canada, and given the much more confined space it is played it, it emphasizes aggressive picks, off-ball movement, and inside play (ND’s Jake Taylor has a strong box lacrosse background). The Syracuse offense has several Canadians, and Joey Spallina, while from Long Island, plays in Canada over the summer to learn this style.