Happy Easter to everyone!
Notre Dame closed the book on a memorable era at running back in 2023 as the powerful Audric Estime left after his junior season for the NFL. As we’ll get to below, he certainly left behind quite a legacy for the Irish. Now young talent steps up in his place and we get to review how 2023 went and the expectations for this upcoming fall.
Here are the numbers from 2023:
2023 Running Back Stats
| PLAYER | CARRIES | YARDS | AVERAGE | SUCCESS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Audric Estime | 210 | 1341 | 6.39 | 61.9% |
| Jeremiyah Love | 71 | 385 | 5.42 | 52.1% |
| Jadarian Price | 47 | 272 | 5.79 | 46.8% |
| Gi’Bran Payne | 45 | 168 | 3.73 | 57.7% |
| Devyn Ford | 8 | 44 | 5.50 | 62.5% |
Note: I use the “old” advanced stat of measuring running success (40% of available yards on 1st down, 60% 2nd down, 100% on 3rd/4th down) because I’m not going back and re-calculating years worth of data. So, for most current success metrics these numbers are actually a bit kinder than you’ll see elsewhere. I generally think 52% (using my numbers) is the starting point for a good back unless you’re really explosive.
There’s a lot of good to discuss and some cause for concern with the future and they are intertwined topics. First off, Audric Estime was so damn good. Stretching back to the start of 2010 (since I’ve been tracking success rate) Cierre Wood’s 2011 success rate of 56.2% was the best single-season performance for an Irish running back who carried the ball at least 200 times.
Estime destroyed that success rate, plus ran for over 200 more yards on fewer carries, for well over 1 yard per carry more, and twice as many rushing touchdowns as Wood in 2011.
With a little more team success, I’m certain Estime would be talked about as one of the best Notre Dame running backs to ever lace them up. Maybe he should be or already is in that discussion? It’s clear that the numbers back it up.
You look back at the #33Trucking campaign from 2017, and while Josh Adams (a particular favorite player of mine), boasted massive homerun ability his success rate that year was 13.4% lower than Estime in 2023. I’ve seen plenty of people say Kyren Williams was better (more versatile, sure) than Estime but his final season with Notre Dame was 16.4% lower in success rate. These are massive gaps in success.
Since 2010, there have been 20 running backs at Notre Dame with at least 100 carries in a single season. Estime leaves Notre Dame with the 2nd and 3rd best single-season success rates from that group, trailing only Jonas Gray’s miraculous 2011.
This is why I am naturally pessimistic when it comes to a lot of the hype surrounding the current running back room led by Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price. It’s a bit of a red flag to me when no football has been practiced and insiders are speaking as if the production is going to get better from 2023. The bar was set so high by Estime that to beat it would take some historical type of dominance–and with an offensive line with plenty of question marks–I think plenty of skepticism is warranted.
Price/Love better than Estime?
But, this is the off-season where Kool-Aid can frow freely. This is also a situation where people can point to things like depth (they’ll be fresher!), or a 1-2 punch (we’re more versatile!), or the backs are going to be more dangerous in the passing game (more overall total yards!) and it can all make sense. Running back is one of those positions where people focus on athleticism to a degree that doesn’t always translate to player success–on the defensive side of the ball we often see similar arguments about linebacker.
That’s not to say I’m down on the running backs, but I think a little more realism is needed for 2024.
I thought there were flashes of brilliance from Love last year and as a true freshman he looked outstanding at times. Other times, he seemed extremely raw and not quite ready to be more than a change of pace guy. He had a very brief cold streak for 3 games from USC through Clemson (2 for 9 in success rate) but otherwise remained remarkably consistent and effective in 2023.
Things seemed inverted for Price to me. He looked like the more well-rounded option (physically, decision-making, etc.) but he wasn’t quite as consistent over the season. As someone who thinks he’s still working his way back from the Achilles injury I am a little more forgiving to his struggles in 2023. For example, taking his NC State, Central Michigan, Ohio State, Louisville, Pitt, and Clemson performances (broadly the large middle portion of the season) he was only 7 for 22 (31.8%) in success rate which is really poor.
Athletically, both Price and Love do look the part and obviously many are projecting growth with their ceiling based upon it. There’s definitely a path where Love makes a big jump from an impressive–if somewhat small role–as a freshman and we see Price recapture some of the magic that was talked about back in 2022 prior to his injury when at times in practice he was overshadowing Estime.
It’s very possible they develop into very good running backs soon, it’s just asking them to be amazing with a massive increase in workload all at once is a big task behind a questionable offensive line and a new quarterback, too.
Where does Gi’Bran Payne fit in? Nearly half of his carries came on 3rd down and he had a 64.2% success rate on 3rd and short, a role he was trusted with by the staff. In comparison, Estime was only successful on a third of his carries on 3rd and short. I don’t think we’ll see Payne’s playing time expand–and he did struggle with a 1 for 8 success streak over a 5 game span–and he’ll remain a reliable veteran presence in spot duty.
I don’t anticipate many snaps for the true freshmen Aeneyas Williams and Kedren Young, particularly with the latter being slowed by a hamstring thus far during the spring.
I remember positing the consistency vs explosiveness question last year regarding estime.
Would you rather have a back with 6.0 ypc and less home run ability or a back with 6.0 ypc but way higher variance (maybe more akin to josh adams).
Audric was such a hammer for the team, turning a normal 5 yarder seen in years past into 8-12, which I personally prefer to a high variance back. This season, he particularly grew in his vision and patience; he would do a gentle dead leg to set up a block, then bowl over a safety for 20 yards.
I think price showed the best patience/explosiveness combo in the bowl game. The blocking seemed similar between him and love, but love almost had that chris tyree where every touch he *almost* got through. A lot of that came from knowing when to keep the RPM down until the blocks were there, then blasting through. Probably right, going to lose some consistency from the RBs, but hopefully they can be made up by not needing them as hard as we have recently: new offense, WR/Qb play taking some burden etc
Scheme can also help this year. One example being Payne vs Estime. Without actually going back and looking at all the runs, I would guess many, if not all, of Payne’s 3rd and short conversions came out of 10/11 personnel, whereas Audric probably had more 3rd and short carries from 12.
In my opinion, this adds to Estime’s greatness. He had the highest success rate in a long time in a offense that packed everyone in close.
I’d had to check the tape, but I think when estime was in on 3rd and short, We. Were. Going. To. Him. Very easy to gameplan against, whereas Payne was part of a larger holistic play calling effort. I don’t necessarily think it was personnel, but rather the calls themselves; how often did we bemoan parkers predictably?
Granted, I’m a fan of calling “players not plays” in got to have it situations, but misdirection is a real thing, and outside of NCST play action TDs, something we lacked a lot of in prime time.
Yeah. I think I over simplified it to formation rather than scheme. Mostly just trying to show the fact that Payne had better numbers than Estime in something that Estime would be significantly better at in a vacuum.
Different coaching could definitely improve the overall numbers, even if no RB is as good as Estime was.
I think that we have been spoiled by the success of Kyren and Estime, but I am really concerned with the RBs this year. I think that, because of the presence of Estime, ND was able to bring Price along slowly last year, which will hopefully benefit him this year (hopefully he’s 100% healthy).
And if Price doesn’t come roaring out of the gates, they have a pretty good stable of backs behind him
I saw Estime really struggled in the 40. Surprising to me how he can be so effective but struggle so much in that one data point.
He did significantly better at ND’s Pro Day. 4.58 vs. the 4.71 at the Combine.