Let me be completely honest. In the run-up to this game I was seriously considering picking Louisville in an upset or at least a really, really close game. Why? We felt due for a super weird game, Louisville can punch above their weight (especially offensively), and, well, college football brings us these things from time to time. We’re coming up on nearly 4 full years since a loss to a bad unranked team and it’s bound to happen, right?
If such a thing occurred, I imagine it would’ve been due to the Irish defense having a really bad day. That didn’t happen and yet Notre Dame slogged their way through one of the most upsetting, boring, and frustrating wins of the Brian Kelly era culminating with kneeling the ball inside Louisville’s red zone to kill the game while sitting on a ridiculous 12-7 lead.
Stats Package
| STAT | IRISH | CARDS |
|---|---|---|
| Score | 12 | 7 |
| Plays | 68 | 45 |
| Total Yards | 338 | 219 |
| Yards Per Play | 5.0 | 4.9 |
| Conversions | 4/10 | 8/15 |
| Completions | 11 | 17 |
| Yards/Pass Attempt | 5.5 | 5.6 |
| Rushes | 49 | 23 |
| Rushing Success | 52.3% | 38.0% |
| 10+ Yds Rushing | 11 | 4 |
| Defense Stuff Rate | 33.3% | 26.4% |
At times, I was perplexed watching this game. Other times, amused in a horrific way. Once the victory was secured and there’s time to look back it’s truly more strange than anything.
Offense
QB: C
RB: B
TE: B-
OL: B-
WR: D
My perception is colored in this way: Notre Dame doesn’t have championship talent like Alabama or Clemson, Ian Book isn’t a championship quarterback, and this team isn’t winning a title. They are good but they have flaws. I don’t see much talk on our site to the contrary but elsewhere on the ND web I’ve seen a ton of “We’re a quarterback away” frustration or lamenting that we’re wasting our time with Book under center.
I understand wishing things were different, but what are people expecting in the here and now with what we have on hand with this roster?
In many ways, this was a quintessential blah game from Ian Book. He had a couple really poor throws, played things conservatively a few times on big passing downs, got skittish in the pocket against a wave of Louisville blitzes, and struggled at times making quick reads under pressure. All things you wish a 5th-year senior could avoid.
Yet, you look at the box score and he only had 19 passes, didn’t turn the ball over, and ran the ball well including the game-winning nifty sideline tapping 13-yard touchdown. He also came through clutch with a pair of 3rd down conversions through the air on the final drive of the game.
Like I said, people want to see something different and better. They want Book to be far more improved and consistent. They want to be able to lean on a 5th-year quarterback who can throw more than 19 attempts and 106 yards to avoid a low-scoring game.
We’ve just seen too much evidence that this will be the case. Book is an athletic game manager++ type of college quarterback who isn’t going to lose you the game with turnovers (14 interceptions on 807 attempts since 2018 probably isn’t talked about nearly enough), occasionally plays above his recruiting profile, but can’t lift an entire offense on his shoulders.
This was one of those games where a more conservative gameplan probably leads to a 2-touchdown win but it appeared the staff wanted to get Book going (in stiff winds Book described as the strongest he’d ever played in!) to try and raise the ceiling of the offense and attempt to blow Louisville off the field. Well, it didn’t work.
On the first 2 offensive series, Book dropped back to pass 16 times and was sacked 3 times. They were stuffed 7 times on the ground and Book finished 4 of 11 for 51 yards with one of those completions being for 7 yards on 3rd & 16 that had no chance of moving the chains.
For me, this game boils down to a few things. One, Book is average sitting in the pocket and making tight throws in the red zone. Two, he’ll scramble and get off schedule far too often in such scenarios. Three, the receiving corps is nondescript at best right now. Four, the run game was very good at times but missing in action* in some crucial spots. For example, the Irish had 10 rush attempts for 15 yards in the red zone which does include 3 sacks and 13 yards came on Book’s touchdown run.
*I counted 9 spots where Notre Dame’s offense was faced with 3rd & long after non-successful 2nd down runs. That’s a lot with just 7 offensive series. It felt like to me there was a massive difference in the success of 1st and 2nd down runs against Louisville.
Rushing Success
Williams – 13 of 25 (52.0%)
Book – 5 of 8 (62.5%)
Tyree – 2 of 7 (28.5%)
Davis – 1 of 1 (100%)
McKinley – 1 of 1 (100%)
A few days after getting strange and enormous hype from Brian Kelly we saw Javon McKinley with 0 catches on his first 5 targets only hauling in one pass, a clutch 7-yard 3rd down reception on the game-clinching drive. His day included a couple bad drops, a failed 2-point conversion target, and maybe most disappointing getting bodied off a slant route in the end zone that nearly caused an interception.
Despite a hilariously athletic stiff-arm and hurdle reception from Michael Mayer it feels maddening to see only 2 catches for 16 yards for the whole tight end position. Somehow, this has to become a huge strength for the passing game and it’s baffling why that’s not the case. 20 receptions for all tight ends through 4 games is fine but they probably need 10 targets a game at this point.
Dude what.
If we can get this as a base-line average performance for the run game we’ll be in good shape. You don’t like to see 18 stuffs, the whole offense seemed a bit miffed at Louisville’s aggressiveness, and things looked different without any really long runs. I also thought Tyree didn’t play very well and Williams was showing numerous of signs of being fatigued and bruised. I hope he can stay healthy.
Still, the run game kept the offense on the field and limited Louisville’s offense from mounting a winning comeback. This included Williams’ clutch 24-yard run on 3rd down that effectively sealed the game.
Defense
DL: C
LB: B+
DB: B
The defense versus Louisville’s offense truly made this game super weird. The Cardinals at times felt dangerous and ready to strike with explosiveness at any moment and yet by the final whistle they had 7 points and just 219 yards, both Satterfield-era lows in his second year on campus. These meager numbers were helped out by Notre Dame allowing only 45 plays! If Notre Dame kicks the field goal late in the 1st half it’s quite possible Louisville goes into the break with about 15 plays on offense!
I thought Louisville should’ve thrown the ball more but it’s understandable that they didn’t want to get too crazy in a close game with high winds when their entire offense wasn’t out there enough to get into a rhythm.
Outside of handful of plays, the Irish kept the visitors in check. Louisville put together 143 yards on their frantic late 2nd quarter drive and opening drive of the 3rd quarter. In their other 5(!) series they managed just 54 yards. It didn’t quite feel dominant because there wasn’t a lot of plays overall but 2.1 yards per play allowed on 5 out of 7 series is phenomenal.
Stuffs vs. Louisville
JOK – 3.5
Bracy – 2
White – 1.5
Crawford – 1.5
Hayes – 1
Cross – 1
Bauer – 1
McCloud – 1
Hinish – 1
Simon – 0.5
Similar to last week, the defense blitzed quite often and couldn’t get home ending with 0 sacks. More disappointing, Louisville didn’t seem too bothered by Notre Dame sending bodies toward their quarterback. This will probably be a major problem against Clemson.
In that vein, the defense needs to get more out of the defensive line and that’s probably why the likes of White, Bauer, JOK, and Liufau are being sent on blitzes so often. Even against supposed poor offensive lines we’re either not trusting the line to generate enough pressure or trying to go for big plays and shut things down early and often.
You could say, well it’s working so far and that’s correct. However, a lack of real pressure and only 3 turnovers forced on the season is ripe to be exploited by far more potent offenses.
Final Thoughts
What was that fake field goal call, and why??? The live shot came from behind the offense and at first I thought, “Wow, they faked it and got it” assuming it was 4th & 4 or something. It was 4th & 9 and they tried to run it with the holder!??? I don’t know, it seems like the mindset going into this game was to knock Louisville out completely in the first half and somehow they thought 13-0 absolutely had to be attained instead of 9-0.
I thought Notre Dame’s response on 2 series really colored a lot of the frustration in this game for me. The first came immediately after the fake field goal. With 43 seconds remaining, the Irish stuffed Louisville running back Javian Hawkins for 1 yard to the Cardinal 6-yard line. The half is essentially over at this point and you take your medicine from the special teams disaster and regroup. But, Notre Dame took a timeout (they really wanted that kill!) and immediately gave up a 28-yard run to later survive a 52-yard field goal attempt.
The second response came after the series that quarterback Malik Cunningham missed the end of with his injury (was that a stinger by the way, he was limping, then it looked like his shoulder, then his hand?) and Louisville basically gave the ball right back to Notre Dame. I thought this was the moment to spur on a couple touchdowns in the final quarter and after a nice 11-yard run by Williams, the offense saw an unsuccessful 3-yard run, an ugly tackle for loss, and failed tunnel screen to Tyree before a punt.
The ‘failed’ onside kick recovery by Louisville after their only touchdown felt like an enormous stroke of luck for Notre Dame. Gutsy call by Satterfield, though.
Brian Kelly mentioned after the game that Lenzy is fighting a soft tissue injury and this feels like a much bigger deal than anything else going on with the receivers. Last year, Lenzy was at nearly 19 yards per play from the line of scrimmage and we figured he’d have a huge role this year. So far, he’s missed 2 games and has 7.9 yards per play from scrimmage and just 63 receiving yards.
Corner Tariq Bracy had another really strong game and is quietly developing into a really good player.
Putting up 5 red zone trips and 12 points takes effort! Kick the field goal up 6-0 and get Austin to drag his toe and this game looks different with a 16-7 score line. Not crazy different, but a lot closer to being able to write it off as a weird one in a weird Covid season. However, it didn’t happen and it’s more of an existential crisis.
I think the field turf is looking ragged. Aren’t they supposed to be good for 10 years? I wonder if Notre Dame is thinking about replacing it a little sooner than that.
Notre Dame only has 13 penalties on the season, that’s pretty good discipline.
I don’t envy these Notre Dame coaches for one big reason: You can keep trying to make Book better and raise the ceiling of the team or you can ultimately realize Book is what he is and raise the floor of the team while giving up on the ceiling being better. It’s strange because Kelly’s biggest detractors will point to this game as reason why Notre Dame is happy just to win and doesn’t care about winning a National Championship. But to me, it’s the staff’s attempt to come out gunning with Book as evidence that they know he needs to be a star if they are to beat Clemson. At the end of the day, it’s still a bad coaching decision to me in stiff winds but it’s not an easy decision by any means.
But wait, did they really pass a lot if Book finished with only 19 attempts? I think so, yes. Prior to the run-heavy final drive Book had 27 drop-backs and the offense had 36 runs from scrimmage. That’s 55% running which is well below the average in the first 3 games. It’s tough to say, “Well, you should’ve run more into run-blitzing 9 men boxes!” but I do think this was the type of game to lean more on the ground attack and figure out a way to make Louisville pay for their aggressiveness that didn’t entail putting so much on Book’s arm. I’d love to go back and do the research but over 50% success rate and 232 rushing yards against mostly stacked boxes is quietly really impressive. Granted, Louisville’s defense is bad but the offensive line did really well in the grand scheme.
The game plan to throw is understandable, but these test-the-offense-we-want games seem to backfire more than anything. Also, high winds weren’t (or shouldn’t have been) a surprise. They’d been forecast in Northern IL/IN on Saturday for days. I am sure they had a back-up plan. The decision to stay with getting Ian and the WR online is certainly mystifying. Its the same with the fake field goal and then calling the timeout. It had already been a half, it was clear it was going to be a tight game, take the points and get to half asap up nine, and try to re-group, especially since Louisville would start with the ball.
I generally see Kelly’s decisions as very practical, but sometimes its like he falls off the “decided schematic advantage” cliff for a game.
Lots of mixed reports from inside the stadium regarding the wind. It seems like they thought it wouldn’t be that bad?
I agree, for this season our offense is what it is at this point. What I can’t help wondering is this – We’re now in year 4 of Kelly 2.0, with a 5th year senior quarterback in his 3rd season as a starter. Why is this the state of our quarterback situation? Why has it been such a struggle to develop a quarterback who can be more than a game manager and actively attack opposing defenses through the air?
Recruiting, recruiting, recruiting!
Eh, we had two top-100 QBs in the last 6 years with Jerkovic and Wimbush, plus there was Gunner Kiel before that. It’s also talent identification and development. Remember that Kelly said he though Jerkovic was the best QB in a year with Trevor Lawrence and Justin Fields (lol). I think he really believed it, too, which is the sad thing.
Bottom line is we’ve got guys who didn’t pan out at all in no small part due to either evaluation misidentification or poor development, and we’ve spent the distinct majority of the Kelly era with quarterbacks whose physical limitations preclude them from ever being in the ten best quarterbacks nationally (much less top-five or top-one).
If there is any chance of ND breaking into the elite tier, or even the Georgia-y tier, it will necessarily involve a quarterback better than Ian Book.
It is talent and development, too. Of course.
But, a couple Top 100/50-ish quarterbacks every 3 or 4 years really isn’t that good. Most Top 15 teams do the exact same thing in recruiting, it’s not like we have an edge that we’re squandering.
We haven’t recruited a generational can’t miss quarterback and don’t recruit enough quantity of blue-chip quarterbacks. I think we’ve done a really great job developing Book but he’s not 6’6″ and a 1st round talent.
Fair points. A program at ND’s level with aspirations for more should be doing a lot better than Clark/Pyne back-to-back. And, somewhat inexplicably, Pyne was an early QB offer!
I’ll also say….
It’s such a small sample size with quarterbacks. On average, just one guy per recruiting cycle and it’s so hard to “hit” on the 3 out of the 10 guys you want over a decade just because they were higher rated in high school AND weren’t absolute super star recruits.
If we took a Jaylon Smith of QB’s and it didn’t pan out, yeah that would be super concerning. But, we haven’t signed someone like that.
I kind of feel like quarterbacks under Kelly isn’t too different from most other positions where we don’t always have the higher rated guys pan out. But it’s clearly not a great situation either.
Also, I feel like Buchner (9th best QB in the Composite!) falls right in line with most of our top recruits at the position. Could be good but far from can’t miss. Here are the 9th best QB’s in recent cycles:
2019, Taisun Phommacanh, Clemson
Recruited over by the No. 10 overall recruit in 2020 and currently 3rd string.
2018, Jarren Williams, Miami
Transferred to JUCO this summer.
2017, Dylan McCaffrey, Michigan
Opted out of 2020 and decided to transfer this summer.
2016, Brandon McIlwain, South Carolina
Transferred to Cal, played terribly in 2018 in his lone action and gave up football for a baseball career.
2015, Ricky Town, USC
Transferred to Pitt, never played, left the program, and I think quit football.
2014, Jacob Park, Georgia
Transferred to Iowa State where he played 2 years, losing the starting job in the second season.
2013, Asiantii Woulard, UCLA
Transferred to USF and washed out to D-2 Clarion University.
I had to go back to 2012 before finding a successful quarterback at 9th in the class (Chad Kelly) who left Clemson and (probably wouldn’t have beat out Deshaun Watson anyway) had 2 nice years at Ole Miss.
I liked nd09’s point though that the raw material of QB that ND has recruited should have done something…
I did a quick look at Elite 11, they had Golson (2010), Zaire (2012), Kizer (2014), Pyne (2019), Buchner (2021) in the Kelly era with Phil Jurkovec highly ranked but not participating….Which matches pretty well with Clemson in the same period: Tajh Boyd (2008) Chad Kelly (2011), Deshaun Watson (2013), Hunter Johnson (2016), Trevor Lawrence (2017). DJ Uiagaleli (2020) didn’t participate but could have.
Clemson has had a bit more quality, but it does seem a bit unfortunate that Wimbush (46th overall in his class, .9792) ends up like he did and Watson (42nd overall, .9794) is a first round pick.
For one reason or another, Clemson is getting a lot out of Watson, Lawrence and ND whiffed on Wimbush and Jurkovec. That adds up. Not sure if it is avoidable or just a misfortune that sometimes leads each down their own paths.
Hopefully Buchner can at least be Tajh Boyd (NFL draft pick) if he can’t be Watson or Lawrence. It does seem like, for better or worse with how the position goes, ND gets one really great recruit every 2-3 years (Wimbush, Jurkovec, Buchner) that they think is “the guy”. And he hasn’t been yet.
Ian Book Career Stats (Projected)
698 of 1,093 (63.8%) for 8,435 yards
67 passing TD
20 INT
355 rushes
1,442 rushing yards
24 rushing TD
33-5 record
Tajh Boyd Career Stats
901 of 1,402 (64.3%) for 11,904 yards
107 passing TD
39 INT
505 rushes
1,165 rushing yards
26 rushing TD
32-8 record
I thought this was interesting to look at! Book’s passing stats will probably go up a little bit than projected, although he may lose more than 2 more games by the end of 2020.
If those stats hold up, he’ll end up second or third all time in td passes, first all time in completion percentage, second in passing yards. Not sure where he’d end up in rushing td’s, no time to look it up.
i think your record total is correct, Eric. I believe he’s 24-3 now? No way to get to 33-5, unless I’m overlooking something.
That is pretty interesting how similar they are!
So does that confirm that Buchner (56th overall, .9732) is the next Deshaun (42nd overall, .9794)? Let’s hope..
Yea it’s important to realize that a lot of top QB’s don’t pan out at many places, not just ND.
It’s not like Bama has had great QB’s most years in the last decade during their crazy run of recruiting. But I bet they’ve pulled in a “top” guy most of those years and until the last two could barely get above average play from their QB.
Woof. And Buchner seems to be on the downward trajectory ratings-wise during his senior year, which usually is a harbinger of bad things for a recruit (a la Phil J or NaNa… hard to think of an ND recruit who overcame a last-season ratings drop to become a star).
We seem to be quite good at developing guys with, if we’re frank, Group of 5 talent into pretty darn successful quarterbacks, albeit with a ceiling. We seem far less good at developing high level QBs, which is what scares me for Tyler Buchner.
Any ideas why that would matter? What would be the difference? Or is it just that we don’t get the top QB so when we strike out on those guys we are able more or less to get *one* of the lower rated guys prepared to play pretty decently?
I have absolutely nothing to back this up, but I wonder if there’s a tiny grain of truth in the idea that Kelly is just better (and/or more comfortable) at coaching up lesser talents because of his GVSU background than he is at developing elite talents. That is, at least, how it’s played out with his quarterbacks at ND.
I buy that 100%. I felt Weis had the opposite problem: he’d get a lot out of his elite talent but struggled to develop most of his players. It makes sense that Kelly and Weis’ background would heavily shape their strengths/weaknesses.
It’s almost like he’s the Mike Brey of college football QBs. Regardless, it has definitely been in my head for a while now that somehow, someway, Clark will end up playing a much bigger role in ND football over the next 2-3 years than Buchner. Because we can’t have nice things at that position, which flummoxes me to no goddamn end.
The odds are in Clark’s favor just due to the gap in age, IMO.
Not sure if I want Buchner’s first experience to be on the road at FSU. I too see Clark starting that one.
I haven’t re-watched, but man it felt like our play action game was completely ineffective (as it has generally been all year). Nobody coming wide open like they should when we have had such a successful run game and they were committing a lot to stopping it.
Curious what people think — is the biggest factor the WR’s not getting separation, poor play design, the offense somehow tipping the play action plays, or something else? Cannot believe we don’t have TEs running open all day in crossing routes and down the seam…
So few possessions! Felt like a replacement for the typical Navy game!
Yup, a very Navy-like game. But, we were the Middies in this scenario!??
I’m not sure play-action would’ve worked too well with how hard Louisville crashed. It seems like Book’s thinking re blitzes is:
A) If my first read wide open?
Yes, throw it.
If no then…
B) Is my second read really wide open?
*Wait, that receiver isn’t very good*
*Panic you’ve held the ball too long*
[scrambles around]
We’ve mentioned it before but part of me thinks they should get more comfortable taking chances on risker routes in the middle of the field and deal with more turnovers if it means getting the passing game going more and developing receivers.
The common denominator in all of this is Kelly as a head coach and something that he seems to demand from his QBs. Ian Book was not nearly this indecisive when he took over for Wimbush, and I believe that it’s been similar in other instances previously with new starters who become incumbents. There is a ‘paralysis by analysis’ which seems to consume all of them in the long run, which leads me to believe that maybe Kelly should stay the hell out of the QB room entirely and let Rees manage his guy independently.
I agree that there must be something like this going on. The common denominator we see in terms of “qb regression” is a decrease in decision making speed. What book had to recommend him when he came in as a replacement was quick throws and high efficiency. Now it’s like you can watch him thinking until he gets sacked
I can’t say either of you is wrong about the QB’s freezing up as they get more experience. I wonder too if we can’t get our more promising WRs into games because there’s too much for them to process too?
Other programs do it. There was Jermaine Burton (#82 overall) as a true freshman at Georgia catching a couple of impressive passes (including a touchdown) against Alabama over the weekend. He currently has 8 catches for 111 yards and 1 TD. In other words, he would be arguably our best WR.
But, ND has Jordan Johnson (#37 overall) sitting on the bench unable to get any reps at all.
Recruiting rankings are not everything, but if Georgia can get a similar if not slightly less talented freshman on the field and making an impact, why can’t we even get our guy a whiff of playing time?
I don’t think this is being talked about. Has Kelly ever had more than one good above average wideout on the field at one time since he has been here? /Why aren’t we talking about Rees’ role in QB development since he has been QB coach? Why aren’t we talking about Alexander in his development of receivers?
2011-15, 17-18 probably all qualify for a yes.
2010, 2016, and 2019 probably not.
If you consider TJ Jones and Corey Robinson very good (and I do), those are easy answers. The questioner must not have agreed. And he must have forgotten we had Miles Boykin.
I just looked up the WR from those years. These are the above average college receivers in my mind in those years. What I mean by average is that most teams ND plays has people equal to those players. I.e. Some became very good receivers later on in their career. Here are my picks:: 2011 Floyd, 2012 TJ Jones, 2013 TJ Jones, 2014 Daniels and Fuller and Robinson , 2015 Fuller 2016 EQ 2017 EQ, 2018 Boykin and Claypool, 2019 Claypool 2020 No one.
Man, Eric, you are right. The turf looks like garbage. In the bright sunshine it looks enough like grass, but under the lights – whether at night or on an overcast day like yesterday, it looks like worn out shag carpet.
Not to get all Across, but if Green Bay can keep a natural surface playable through January, why can’t we have one through November?
Since nobody else jumped in on this perfectly legit question, the immense study and debate over that aspect revealed that the subsurface strata of the Stadium were inimical to growing and maintaining the kind of turf at Lambeau. Issues to do with soil composition, deep drainage, and even if I recall pipe systems. Maybe somebody with a more practically oriented degree than mine (which is what is now called PLS) knows the details?
I’m not sure about inimical as I don’t know that word, but I feel like the mixed use capability of the stadium now is so important–and has been such a success since 2014–that there’s no way they will switch back any time soon even if they could come up with research to show they are capable of maintaining natural grass again.
I honestly feel like we’ll see a high-tech natural grass field wheeled in on trays for each home game, put over the turf, and then taken out right after the game before we see natural grass put in permanently again.
Hey hey, fellow PLS alum!
That was a really good synopsis of the game, especially your thoughts surrounding the fake field goal, gross negligence use of timeouts, and everything surrounding book. Nd is still 7th overall and 4th amongst current teams in SP+. Which shows how far the program has come, unfortunately in three weeks we’ll see how far it has to go. Beat Pitt and pretty much guaranteed a 9 win regular season. Really hope we don’t get blown out by Clemson, finish second in acc and have to run it back. Think that is really the cloud hanging over every game.
Would be curious how the staff views the skill talent. Should be
1. Kyren
2. Tremble
3. Mayer
4. Tyree
5. Austin
6. Healthy Lenzy
5 and 6 haven’t been available but they clearly have not prioritized touches in that order
Would love to see Austin prove it, but he’s all promise and no delivery so far. Kinda like Jurkovic and others we could all name.
Given the team we actually have, you’d have to include Book, certainly ahead of Austin, Lenzy, Tremble. We’ve been without those guys frequently and still won. Book has won without any of those guys more often than they’ve been available.
If they would spend the targets on Austin that they instead burn needlessly trying to make Javon McKinley happen, maybe he could prove it. Hopefully over the next couple weeks.
Man, if we could get all 6 of those guys humming it looks real good. Probably not happening until 2021, though.
You’re always so hard on Book, Eric.
As Kelly said, the guy finds a way to win, and we’re on the best win percentage run we’ve had in years with him at QB. He isn’t elite, but we don’t have an elite qb, period. The ones we recruit who are supposedly elite don’t turn out to be. Why would a Trevor Lawrence, Tua, Murray, Lamar Jackson, etc come to ND, nowadays, I wonder. People have fantasy dreams about Jurkovic, but if he were the real deal he’d have shone through, as the real ones quickly do. Watching the BC matchup should be very interesting, eh?
Speaking of elite, our head coaching situation is in the same spot. Kelly is good, maybe even very good, but not elite. Some of his game time decisions are mystifying. Despite that, he’s built a winning program, overcoming handicaps the elite coaches don’t have to deal with. Where that hurts most is in recruiting true game changing offensive skill players, with the most obvious being QB. Receiving as well. We get some good, even very good ones, but never an entire elite corps at the same time, like Bama, LSU last year, Clemson, often USC, tOSU. Then throw in an elite running back, and you’ve got magic. That used to be us, but not for about 30 years or so.
You mentioned the receiving corps being nondescript. Good adjective, and appropriate. They just don’t seem able to create separation, putting enormous pressure on the oline and Book. Dungy repeatedly was commenting on Louisville creating coverage sacks and intense pressure because nobody was open. That plus the wind makes it hard for a qb to look good. Especially one like Book who doesn’t have a rifle for an arm.
On the other hand Book does seem repeatedly to make quick, heady decisions when it counts the most, personally pulling our bacon out of the fire, as he did on the td run and during the final drive in the 4th quarter. We won’t win a championship with him, but after all the mediocre years it’s much more fun to have a winning program than not.
I didn’t think I was going to pay any attention to this season, with all the craziness. I didn’t even realize we’d played FSU until I checked in Saturday morning to see if we were playing. Happily I automatically record any ND games, so I watched it before the Louisville game. So I’m hooked again. It’s nice to have this place to come to, and though we don’t see eye to eye on Book, Eric, (or Brady Quinn vs Joe Montana) I enjoy your thoughts. I’m glad you keep writing.
Clemson will be very ugly. Hope I’m wrong, but I don’t think so.
I feel like I’m very fair with Book!
Of course you do 😉
So hard on Book? SO HARD ON BOOK? WTF ARE YOU TALKING ABOUT!? If anything Murtaugh is too easy on Book. Book I legitimately the only thing from keeping this team from being a legitimate playoff contender the last 2 years. He’s had elite offensive lines, elite WRs, elite tight ends and elite defenses. This year he not only has elite running backs, he has running backs who are receiving threats and ANOTHER monster tight end and he still struggles against average defenses and is completely outclassed by the high end defenses. The problem isn’t that we don’t have good Wrs it’s that Book isn’t good e enough to utilize what our best Wrs do (get open deep)
From Pete Sampson’s Twitter of WR snaps and passing plays in parenthesis:
Javon McKinley – 59 (25)
Ben Skowronek – 45 (17)
Avery Davis – 22 (14)
Kevin Austin Jr. – 22 (9)
Braden Lenzy – 2 (2)
Joe Wilkins – 2 (1)
That’s not very elite at all. Book kinda is what he is, but let’s not pretend he’s surrounded by weapons for the passing game, nor the greatest of playcalling of setups to be conducive for throwing.
Lenzy could be, but is seemingly always dinged up with some issue, and Austin for his talent has hardly played in the last 2 calendar years. The rest is a big ball of meh who wouldn’t sniff the 2 deep at other top-5 programs.
I don’t think E was too unfair on Book though. A three year starter and 5th year overall is just a game manager and that’s disappointing. Tough to see Notre Dame winning a big game with their current QB level of play.
But we’re rabbling just to rabble if the sense is all of ND’s offensive deficiencies are Ian Book and nothing but Ian Book.
He is the one guy we cannot afford to lose, regardless of whether you value him, he’s been hugely successful for this program:
So, he’s not the elite guy Lawrence is, but he’s been damn good for this program.
And yeah, its Book’s fault these receivers can’t get open. Not sure how that works, actually. IMO they are a below average bunch, and none of the WR’s stand out at this point. I hope they get better. Meanwhile Book figured out how to win another game, stinker though it was.
2) Brandon Wimbush had an 83.3% winning percentage. That didn’t make him a great QB.
4) He’s like 4,000 yards behind Quinn. (And 35 TDs behind Quinn)
6) I believe Wimbush won 6 of those games in that streak (16 straight is still incredibly impressive for Book-led ND teams)
Book didn’t figure out how to win that game, the defense figured out how to win that game.
And Book beat out Wimbush, did he not?
Yeah, no way we needed Book’s td. SMH.
“Book didn’t figure out how to win that game, the defense figured out how to win that game.”
I kind disagree there. Put the 4 points on the scoreboard that Kelly directly took off of it and it’s a 16-7 game. And the red zone offense wasn’t great, but they kneeled in the red zone to complete a 7 minute drive to complete the game. Punch that in and it’s now 23 points by the offense very easily and the final score projects a lot better.
The defense was great and a big reason they won, but Ian Book played perfectly winnable against a poor opponent. He didn’t turn the ball over, used his legs effectively and operate the offense well right up into the red zone. He chewed up a ton of time and ND won.
The problem is he didn’t finish drives and he didn’t play well enough to beat big, bad Clemson. And everything is measured against Clemson.
Not trying to argue, but the point of football is to score the games, not get into the red zone.
So, if we don’t score touchdowns, then ultimately everything needs to be filtered through a lens of the offense, in the end, not playing very good. And Book is/was a part of that.
Obviously I would have kicked the FG, so I see your point there. But, even still is another 3 points going to make you really be impressed with the offense…
After watching North Carolina: always nice to get a win. Maybe FSU is a lot better with their new QB?
My main concern after this week isn’t are we going to beat Clemson, it’s actually what does our floor look like? SP+ has us at 4 (yay), but our opponents really haven’t been good. They are a combined 5-16. Louisville is our best win (SP+ is 45).
I think if we get a semblance of a passing game, we could coast to 10 wins but not really challenge Clemson. However, this week makes me think this season could get ugly if the offense doesn’t get better.
I have a hard time seeing worse than 9-2, if only because I can’t imagine a third team on the schedule scoring a bunch against this defense.
4 road games coming up in our next 5 with the 3 toughest remaining included in that bunch, though.
The fake FG in my opinion was the worst play call in the Kelly era.
Unfortunately, I agree, Book is not that elite QB to beat Clemson or Bama. I think we saw last night that Georgia has that same problem this year. Wonder if they wish they still had Fields! Hopefully Tyler Buchner will end up being that guy for us! Hard not to wonder if Jurkovec wouldn’t better than Book this year.
Kelly probably had a dozen calls worse than that in 2010. Nate Montana throwing against Michigan and Rees throwing against Tulsa come to mind.
It wasn’t good, though. It seems weird that we’re all calling it terrible when Bramblett got pretty close to the first down, but it was not good.
That Bramblett even got within 5 yards of a first was a testament to how much he was carried forward by his own linemen and genuine surprise on UL’s part that we would call such an awful, low-percentage play.
Maaaaybe top 5, there’s a lot of competition!
Also, I’m curious to know if Kelly actually signed off on it. Technically that could’ve been a Rees/Polian discussion.
Throwing when in field goal range against Tulsa was probably his worst call. However, expecting your holder to gain 9 yards is baffling. The odds of succeeding have to be much better with a pass or even just leaving the offense in. The fact he even gained 7 was pretty impressive.
The worst play call in the Kelly era was going for 2 up 11 in the fourth quarter against Northwestern in 2014. There is no close second.
I’ll cast my vote for all 26 times Kelly decided to call passing plays in 2016 vs Nc State in the middle of a hurricane. (For nine completions and 54 yards).
Wow I forgot about that one — definitely agree with this. Not sure exactly what was going on in Kelly’s life at that time, but his performance there made it seem like he was trying to get fired.
Shortly before kickoff, I watched 2 of my neighbors attempt to rake leaves in while the wind was gusting to 40mph. I thought to myself, “hmm…maybe today isn’t the best day to be doing that, even though you may have woken up thinking today was the day to rake leaves.” They both, eventually, got some leaves raked, using too much energy in the process. I then turned on the TV and watched the same thing unfold in the first quarter.
That’s a nice little Saturday.
Honey, are you going to rake today?
Not after watching Pete and Fred.
What’s the point of Brian Polian as a coach? Can’t we just make him recruiting coordinator and be done with him as a coach at this point? We’ve gone from “ugh, another fair catch” to not even being able to do that on punt return. Our fake field goal design on 4th and 9 is a run with the punter. Our kick return unit never does anything special. Just let him go recruit guys.
Book should never drop straight back to pass unless it’s a quick slant route (of course, we never throw those anyway). Roll him out and use play action every single time please. He’s probably 5’11”, standing behind huge O-Linemen, gets happy feet at the slightest sign of pressure, and doesn’t have a strong arm. Stop trying to force him to be something he isn’t. When he’s on the run, he’s fantastic. When he’s forced to be a pocket passer, it’s a waste of a play. We can lament the lack of development all we want, but at some point, you need to look at what you have on your roster and work within those confines.
He draws up a hell of a fake punt
Also we had that snazzy fake fg against UVA (?) a few years ago where the holder pitched it to a blocker.
Also, I think if coaches need ideas for fake fgs just watch game tape on Les Miles at LSU. I swear he had 10 different plays he ran over the years that typically worked.
Pretty impressive of him to draw that up for ND while coaching Nevada!
Well *somebody* did a really nifty job of transforming Jon Doerer from a minus into a plus last season. If Polian is getting dinged for other things, then he probably deserves credit for that.
Also, almost no one is actually returning punts anymore, so I’m perfectly satisfied to have someone stand back there and simply wave their arm and catch them. It’s not exactly a fireable offense.
To that end, Bramblett is at least an Average+ punter (Tyler Newsome before him was even better), kick coverage has been good and kick off returns have been acceptable.
The “transformed Doerer” thing is overblown. He was always a good kicker that people were wrongly worried about. He was a 3 star recruit, as a kicker! He kicked off a bunch out of bounds because of a stupid strategy of trying to do a bunch of corner kicks.
And I’m fine with fair catches, but that’s not what has happened this year. We’ve already had fumbles and guys just letting punts bounce 20 yards.
A lot in this thread.
As for Book, he is who he is. High floor, low ceiling. He plays in his range. Remember though, he was supposed to be the bridge from Wimbush to Jurkovec (or whoever the hot shot was going to be in the following classes). Wimbush didn’t deliver as promised and for whatever reason Jurkovec wasn’t ready at Wake. Then Book kept winning. Hard to replace a guy who doesn’t lose for a guy who, based on all reports out of practices wasn’t doing all that well. Trevor Lawrence stepped in for Kelly Bryant because he WAS lighting it up in practice and looked ready.
The fake punt was mystifying, it was too far. That said, if you watch the tape again, if he cuts up between the guard and the tackle right away, as opposed to trying to go outside initially, he may have made it. It looks like he could have gotten to the 5 or 6 untouched and Banks was about to level someone at the 5. However, I think it was too much to expect that read in that situation.
As for Polian, our ST are about average. the punt returner has one job, catch the damn ball. Anything extra is unnecessary. Nice on occasion, but put the offense out there.
I agree with the poster who said Kelly is more comfortable with unheralded QBs. Not sure why. I also agree as he expects better reads, the QBs seem to freeze up a little.
In particular this year, I don’t think our WRs help our QB, particularly in blitz scenarios. I don’t think we ever dump the ball out to a ‘hot route’ as they say on tv. Is that because our WRs don’t read blitz and break it off? because they are not supposed to? or they do and Book misses them?