From Wikipedia:

The wolverine, Gulo gulo (gulo is Latin for “glutton”) is the largest land-dwelling species of the family Mustelidae [the weasel family]… Like many other mustelids, it has potent anal scent glands used for marking territory and sexual signaling. The pungent odor has given rise to the nicknames “skunk bear” and “nasty cat”… Wolverines are considered to be primarily scavengers. A majority of the wolverine’s sustenance is derived from carrion… Whether eating live prey or carrion, the wolverine’s feeding style appears voracious, leading to the nickname of “glutton” (also the basis of the scientific name).

In short, a wolverine is a big, smelly, gluttonous weasel that feeds mostly on the leftovers from bigger predators. You know, the more I think about it, the more fitting an association it is for the University of Michigan. They really nailed that one.

Michigan had a rough end to 2017-18 – obliterated by Ohio State to end the regular season, obliterated by Florida in their bowl game, dogged by multiple rumors and/or complaints of mishandling player health, lost nearly every significant player who had the option to go to the NFL, lost a former 5* recruit and presumptive starter at the very thin DT position to transfer, lost two assistants to lateral moves to Ohio State… It was not going well. Somehow Jim Harbaugh managed to turn all that around by tabbing [checks notes] a guy who had never called plays before to run the offense. Huh.

Now, don’t get me wrong, the offense clearly needed a shakeup. It had underwhelmed consistently under Harbaugh, in large part because of weirdness in the leadership positions on the staff – 2019 is the fourth straight year they have a different coordinator structure on offense. Small wonder that the offense has been a mess, and from an organizational standpoint, it’s a big improvement to go to a “normal” structure with a single OC having responsibility for the offense for the first time under Harbaugh. But the guy he hired… Harbaugh held a 20 minute phone interview with Alabama assistant Josh Gattis and hired him on the spot, without ever actually meeting him. The media – and, frustratingly, at least one common target in the 2020 recruiting class – completely fell for the genius of this, um, unorthodox move and ate up Gattis’s #SpeedInSpace mantra.

The offense has looked good against Rutgers, OK against Middle Tennessee State and Illinois, bad against Army, Wisconsin, and Iowa, and a little bit of everything against Penn State. Their new up-tempo approach has resulted in an average of 70.6 plays per game, while last year their glacially-paced offense ran [checks notes again] 68.9 plays per game. The defense has been good in spots and at times against Penn State looked excellent, but they’re still prone to busts. There are a lot of questions in Ann Arbor right now and precious few firm answers.

Notre Dame (-1) at Michigan

Michigan Stadium
Ann Arbor, Michigan
Date: Saturday, October 26, 2019
Time: 7:30 PM ET
TV: ABC

The initial Vegas line for this game was Michigan -4. Within 24 hours it moved to Michigan -2.5, and within another 48 hours it moved to ND -1. That’s an enormous move. Food for thought.

Story lines abound in this game. Brian Kelly is 3-3 against Michigan; this game will probably decide whether he finishes with a winning record against them. Kelly reportedly harbors a substantial grudge against Michigan that goes back to 2008, when they passed him over without so much as a courtesy call to hire Rich Rodriguez. On the other side, Jim Harbaugh is 0-1 against Notre Dame but he has more trouble than the macro picture of career records against rivals. A loss this weekend would push the Smelly Gluttonous Weasels to a very shakily-achieved 5-3 with Michigan State and Ohio State still looming; Harbaugh needs this win or he’s looking at 8-4 at best in Year 5. Tuesday’s article from FootballScoop, citing sources that say Harbaugh’s agent is looking for an NFL “exit strategy,” and Harbaugh’s subsequent shot at the program’s “enemies” and claims that he doesn’t have representation (sure, buddy) add a little spice as well.

There are player story lines too, of course. Skunkbear QB Shea Patterson and LT Jon Runyan, among others, looked (charitably) not good against the Irish last year and no doubt would like to rehab their image a bit. Ian Book has had an up-and-down year for Notre Dame and could go a long way toward quieting his critics by putting up a great performance in a hostile environment. The Irish defense has something to prove against Michigan’s receivers, who are second among opponents to USC’s group by a substantial gap but still pretty good. The Irish running game will try to continue its recent ascendancy against another quality opponent.

The drama!

Michigan’s Offense

Let’s take a look at some numbers, shall we?

  • 19 carries, 40 yards (2.1 ypc), 0 TDs; 17/42 (40.5%), 259 yards (6.2 ypa), 2 TDs, 2 INTs
  • 33 carries, 120 yards (3.6 ypc), 2 TDs; 14/26 (53.8%), 147 yards (5.7 ypa), 0 TDs, 1 INT
  • 41 carries, 141 yards (3.4 ypc), 3 TDs; 24/41 (58.5%), 276 yards (6.7 ypa), 0 TDs, 1 INT
  • Combined: 93 carries, 301 yards (3.2 ypc), 5 TDs; 65/108 (50.5%), 682 yards (6.3 ypa), 2 TDs, 4 INTs

Those first three bullet points are Michigan’s respective offensive output against Wisconsin, Iowa, and Penn State. There are other unflattering entries as well – they passed well against Army and Rutgers but couldn’t run effectively, they ran well against Middle Tennessee State and Illinois but passed like garbage, they… Oh wait, that’s all their games so far. Yes, even against Rutgers, in a game they won 52-0, they couldn’t run the ball consistently well. True freshman RB Zach Charbonnet is the bell cow but has been slowed by nagging health issues. Sophomore Hassan Haskins is a little more explosive and showed some good things against Illinois, but was completely shut down by Penn State.

The passing game, aside from an explosion against FBS bottom-feeder Rutgers, has been uneven at best for most of the season and at times downright corpse-like. Patterson is 71st nationally in passer rating at 136.9 and his backups, Dylan McCaffrey and Joe Milton, are worse on their 18 combined attempts. To make matters worse, Michigan also turns the ball over a ton, ranking 109th nationally in turnovers lost with 14 through 7 games; in fact, they have yet to put up a turnover-free game this season. Patterson and McCaffrey can both be prone to errors in decision-making, and Patterson in particular has absolutely terrible ball security in the pocket and on the run. Notre Dame’s rushers will have an eye on knocking the ball out any time they’re in his zip code.

So what do they do well? Well, the answer is “not much,” at least not with any consistency. But they can be dangerous on deep passing plays and on perimeter passes. Their leading receivers are Ronnie Bell and Nico Collins; they have only 44 combined receptions through 13 combined games, but Bell is averaging almost 18 yards per catch and Collins almost 19. For comparison, Notre Dame’s top two receivers, Chase Claypool and Cole Kmet, have 48 receptions in 10 combined games and are each averaging under 15 yards per catch. Patterson has started to develop some chemistry with Bell in particular, who has bailed them out of a few stalled drives with field-flipping plays. Fellow WRs Donovan Peoples-Jones and Tarik Black, who have both had injury issues throughout their careers, and TE Nick Eubanks are additional big-bodied targets that could create mismatches.

Michigan’s Defense

The Pungently-Posteriored Nasty Cats have a typical Don Brown defense this year – high-risk, high-reward – and have held four of their seven opponents under four yards per play. The front seven boast some sold disruptors in LBs Josh Uche and Jordan Glasgow and DEs Kwity Paye and Aidan Hutchinson. There’s not much behind DT Carlo Kemp, so he could tire as the game wears on, but he has shown some ability to penetrate as well. Khaleke Hudson has done a solid job at the viper spot, the equivalent of Notre Dame’s rover. Mike LB Cameron McGrone, a former Irish recruiting target, has come on of late in relief of the injured Josh Ross; he can make mistakes but he can cover a lot of ground too. The front seven has some experience and size question marks but is clearly the strength of this defense.

On the back end, cornerback Lavert Hill, who was one of the few holdovers from last year’s defense, has been just OK at one corner spot while new starter Ambry Thomas – yes, the guy who ran the kick back last year – has been solid if unspectacular on the opposite side. Safeties John Metellus and Brad Hawkins have mostly been non-factors, with a total of four havoc plays between them – for comparison, Kyle Hamilton has four by himself in part-time duty. They’re often left to cover slot receivers man-to-man, which Penn State took advantage of and the Irish would be wise to focus on as well.

They’ve dropped off from last year, which is to be expected given the talent they lost, but they can still be disruptive – they rank a not-as-bad-as-the-offense 49th in TFLs and an impressive 15th in sacks. Their main problem is that they’ve been sloppy – they’ve given up some big pass plays on blown assignments and been gashed on the ground when their LBs get overly aggressive.  It turns out the mega-blitzing defensive approach works better when you have four NFL draft picks, including two first rounders, executing it. Weird, huh? They’ve also had trouble with crossing patterns, although Brown has worked in some more man coverage to combat that glaring weak spot from last year.

They have some guys who can get you. But they can most definitely be gotten themselves, and they have been several times this year.

Something’s Gotta Give

Notre Dame is facing a top 20 team, on the road, after a bye week. Michigan is hosting a top 10 team, after a hard-fought road loss to another top 10 team.

In the Harbaugh era, Michigan is:

  • 28-4 at home
  • 14-4 in October
  • 14-16 against teams with an end-of-year winning record
  • 9-12 against teams ranked at game time
  • 6-3 at home against teams ranked at game time
  • 5-3 at home against teams ranked in the top 15 at game time
  • 1-3 at home against teams ranked in the top ten at game time (win over #8 Wisconsin in 2015, losses to #7 Michigan State and #8 Ohio State in 2015 and #8 Ohio State in 2017)

In the Kelly era, Notre Dame is:

  • 39-23 away from home
  • 26-7 in October
  • 11-1 after a bye week (only loss was 2011 USC)
  • 5-0 away from home after a bye week (four neutral site and one “true” road game, at Temple in 2015)
  • 19-20 against teams ranked at game time
  • 8-5 post-2016 against teams ranked at game time
  • 4-10 on the road against teams ranked at game time
  • 1-3 on the road post-2016 against teams ranked at game time (win over #24 Virginia Tech in 2018, losses to #3 Georgia in 2019 and #7 Miami and #21 Stanford in 2017)

Prediction

Notre Dame hasn’t won in Ann Arbor since 2005 – the notorious “Henne was in!” game in Charlie Weis’s first season, in which Michigan fans demonstrated the MS Paint dexterity of a five-year-old and a complete lack of understanding of parallax. Demetrius Jones set the tone for the 2007 game when he refused to board the bus after losing the starting QB job; the Irish lost 38-0. In 2009, it was Tate Forcier (I can’t believe this site still exists) capitalizing on Weis’s horrific clock management to steal one. In 2011, Denard Robinson’s heroics and Gary Gray’s lack of spatial awareness sullied the phenomenal Under The Lights unis. In 2013, Devin Gardner downed some NZT and donned the #98 jersey of Tom Harmon (whoever the [bleep] that is) to render obsolete one of the most fantastic big-guy TDs of all time.

That was fun, right? Anyway… Weird stuff happens in Ann Arbor. I get it. But the 2007 Notre Dame team was bad and the 2009, 2011, and 2013 teams were mediocre at best, while the Michigan teams they faced ranged from mediocre (2009, 2013) to good (2007, 2011). This time Michigan is mediocre at best and Notre Dame is legitimately good, and not only that, but Michigan’s weaknesses – pass protection, interior rush defense, etc. – happen to align with Notre Dame’s strengths. I think this Irish team is past being overwhelmed by raucous road environments, as they showed in Athens earlier this year. I also think that whatever this Michigan team is, it sure as hell isn’t anywhere near the quality of Georgia. I’m about 75% confident in a Notre Dame win this weekend, with the main question for me being what the margin will be.

But of course, I’m not without concerns. There are in fact a few key questions I have going into the game:

  • Will the Irish continue the run success they found against USC? USC is stronger up the middle than Michigan, so unless Notre Dame’s OL just had a really good day a couple of weeks ago there’s every reason to think they’ll be able to move the ball on the ground. The identity of this offense, which we all thought preseason would be a fast-tempo spread passing attack, seems to be drifting more toward a patient and punishing ground attack. If that is indeed the case, and the Irish are able to continue the upward trend of the run game, it could be a very long day for the Michigan defense.
  • Is Shaun Crawford really ready to jump back into the fray? Crawford suffered a gruesome dislocated elbow against Virginia, reportedly tearing several ligaments in the process, and is somehow going to be available for this game four weeks later. His absence against USC was likely the primary driver of Clark Lea’s rope-a-dope strategy, and if he can’t hold up through this game we could see more of the same. If the erstwhile Michigan commit can step right back into the flow and allow the Irish to cover Michigan’s top three receivers with three actual corners? Concern level lowered.
  • How much of a factor can Jafar Armstrong be? The Athletic’s Pete Sampson pointed out recently that while Tony Jones, Jahmir Smith, C’bo Flemister, and Avery Davis each bring certain skills that the coaches like, the reason they like Armstrong most of all is that he wraps all those skills up in a single package. He’s bigger than you think (6-1/220+), he has an excellent top gear, he’s a plus receiver out of the backfield, etc. If Armstrong is ready to be a meaningful part of the game plan, Chip Long will be able to get a lot more creative.

Notre Dame 27

Michigan 20

Back to that Wikipedia entry:

At least one account reported a wolverine’s apparent attempt to steal a kill from a black bear, although the bear won what was ultimately a fatal contest for the wolverine.

You know, Michigan fans, sometimes you eat the bear and sometimes the bear eats you. Feeding time.