From Wikipedia:
The wolverine, Gulo gulo (gulo is Latin for “glutton”) is the largest land-dwelling species of the family Mustelidae [the weasel family]… Like many other mustelids, it has potent anal scent glands used for marking territory and sexual signaling. The pungent odor has given rise to the nicknames “skunk bear” and “nasty cat”… Wolverines are considered to be primarily scavengers. A majority of the wolverine’s sustenance is derived from carrion… Whether eating live prey or carrion, the wolverine’s feeding style appears voracious, leading to the nickname of “glutton” (also the basis of the scientific name).
In short, a wolverine is a big, smelly, gluttonous weasel that feeds mostly on the leftovers from bigger predators. You know, the more I think about it, the more fitting an association it is for the University of Michigan. They really nailed that one.
Michigan had a rough end to 2017-18 – obliterated by Ohio State to end the regular season, obliterated by Florida in their bowl game, dogged by multiple rumors and/or complaints of mishandling player health, lost nearly every significant player who had the option to go to the NFL, lost a former 5* recruit and presumptive starter at the very thin DT position to transfer, lost two assistants to lateral moves to Ohio State… It was not going well. Somehow Jim Harbaugh managed to turn all that around by tabbing [checks notes] a guy who had never called plays before to run the offense. Huh.
Now, don’t get me wrong, the offense clearly needed a shakeup. It had underwhelmed consistently under Harbaugh, in large part because of weirdness in the leadership positions on the staff – 2019 is the fourth straight year they have a different coordinator structure on offense. Small wonder that the offense has been a mess, and from an organizational standpoint, it’s a big improvement to go to a “normal” structure with a single OC having responsibility for the offense for the first time under Harbaugh. But the guy he hired… Harbaugh held a 20 minute phone interview with Alabama assistant Josh Gattis and hired him on the spot, without ever actually meeting him. The media – and, frustratingly, at least one common target in the 2020 recruiting class – completely fell for the genius of this, um, unorthodox move and ate up Gattis’s #SpeedInSpace mantra.
The offense has looked good against Rutgers, OK against Middle Tennessee State and Illinois, bad against Army, Wisconsin, and Iowa, and a little bit of everything against Penn State. Their new up-tempo approach has resulted in an average of 70.6 plays per game, while last year their glacially-paced offense ran [checks notes again] 68.9 plays per game. The defense has been good in spots and at times against Penn State looked excellent, but they’re still prone to busts. There are a lot of questions in Ann Arbor right now and precious few firm answers.
Notre Dame (-1) at Michigan
Michigan Stadium
Ann Arbor, Michigan
Date: Saturday, October 26, 2019
Time: 7:30 PM ET
TV: ABC
The initial Vegas line for this game was Michigan -4. Within 24 hours it moved to Michigan -2.5, and within another 48 hours it moved to ND -1. That’s an enormous move. Food for thought.
Story lines abound in this game. Brian Kelly is 3-3 against Michigan; this game will probably decide whether he finishes with a winning record against them. Kelly reportedly harbors a substantial grudge against Michigan that goes back to 2008, when they passed him over without so much as a courtesy call to hire Rich Rodriguez. On the other side, Jim Harbaugh is 0-1 against Notre Dame but he has more trouble than the macro picture of career records against rivals. A loss this weekend would push the Smelly Gluttonous Weasels to a very shakily-achieved 5-3 with Michigan State and Ohio State still looming; Harbaugh needs this win or he’s looking at 8-4 at best in Year 5. Tuesday’s article from FootballScoop, citing sources that say Harbaugh’s agent is looking for an NFL “exit strategy,” and Harbaugh’s subsequent shot at the program’s “enemies” and claims that he doesn’t have representation (sure, buddy) add a little spice as well.
There are player story lines too, of course. Skunkbear QB Shea Patterson and LT Jon Runyan, among others, looked (charitably) not good against the Irish last year and no doubt would like to rehab their image a bit. Ian Book has had an up-and-down year for Notre Dame and could go a long way toward quieting his critics by putting up a great performance in a hostile environment. The Irish defense has something to prove against Michigan’s receivers, who are second among opponents to USC’s group by a substantial gap but still pretty good. The Irish running game will try to continue its recent ascendancy against another quality opponent.
The drama!
Michigan’s Offense
Let’s take a look at some numbers, shall we?
- 19 carries, 40 yards (2.1 ypc), 0 TDs; 17/42 (40.5%), 259 yards (6.2 ypa), 2 TDs, 2 INTs
- 33 carries, 120 yards (3.6 ypc), 2 TDs; 14/26 (53.8%), 147 yards (5.7 ypa), 0 TDs, 1 INT
- 41 carries, 141 yards (3.4 ypc), 3 TDs; 24/41 (58.5%), 276 yards (6.7 ypa), 0 TDs, 1 INT
- Combined: 93 carries, 301 yards (3.2 ypc), 5 TDs; 65/108 (50.5%), 682 yards (6.3 ypa), 2 TDs, 4 INTs
Those first three bullet points are Michigan’s respective offensive output against Wisconsin, Iowa, and Penn State. There are other unflattering entries as well – they passed well against Army and Rutgers but couldn’t run effectively, they ran well against Middle Tennessee State and Illinois but passed like garbage, they… Oh wait, that’s all their games so far. Yes, even against Rutgers, in a game they won 52-0, they couldn’t run the ball consistently well. True freshman RB Zach Charbonnet is the bell cow but has been slowed by nagging health issues. Sophomore Hassan Haskins is a little more explosive and showed some good things against Illinois, but was completely shut down by Penn State.
The passing game, aside from an explosion against FBS bottom-feeder Rutgers, has been uneven at best for most of the season and at times downright corpse-like. Patterson is 71st nationally in passer rating at 136.9 and his backups, Dylan McCaffrey and Joe Milton, are worse on their 18 combined attempts. To make matters worse, Michigan also turns the ball over a ton, ranking 109th nationally in turnovers lost with 14 through 7 games; in fact, they have yet to put up a turnover-free game this season. Patterson and McCaffrey can both be prone to errors in decision-making, and Patterson in particular has absolutely terrible ball security in the pocket and on the run. Notre Dame’s rushers will have an eye on knocking the ball out any time they’re in his zip code.
So what do they do well? Well, the answer is “not much,” at least not with any consistency. But they can be dangerous on deep passing plays and on perimeter passes. Their leading receivers are Ronnie Bell and Nico Collins; they have only 44 combined receptions through 13 combined games, but Bell is averaging almost 18 yards per catch and Collins almost 19. For comparison, Notre Dame’s top two receivers, Chase Claypool and Cole Kmet, have 48 receptions in 10 combined games and are each averaging under 15 yards per catch. Patterson has started to develop some chemistry with Bell in particular, who has bailed them out of a few stalled drives with field-flipping plays. Fellow WRs Donovan Peoples-Jones and Tarik Black, who have both had injury issues throughout their careers, and TE Nick Eubanks are additional big-bodied targets that could create mismatches.
Michigan’s Defense
The Pungently-Posteriored Nasty Cats have a typical Don Brown defense this year – high-risk, high-reward – and have held four of their seven opponents under four yards per play. The front seven boast some sold disruptors in LBs Josh Uche and Jordan Glasgow and DEs Kwity Paye and Aidan Hutchinson. There’s not much behind DT Carlo Kemp, so he could tire as the game wears on, but he has shown some ability to penetrate as well. Khaleke Hudson has done a solid job at the viper spot, the equivalent of Notre Dame’s rover. Mike LB Cameron McGrone, a former Irish recruiting target, has come on of late in relief of the injured Josh Ross; he can make mistakes but he can cover a lot of ground too. The front seven has some experience and size question marks but is clearly the strength of this defense.
On the back end, cornerback Lavert Hill, who was one of the few holdovers from last year’s defense, has been just OK at one corner spot while new starter Ambry Thomas – yes, the guy who ran the kick back last year – has been solid if unspectacular on the opposite side. Safeties John Metellus and Brad Hawkins have mostly been non-factors, with a total of four havoc plays between them – for comparison, Kyle Hamilton has four by himself in part-time duty. They’re often left to cover slot receivers man-to-man, which Penn State took advantage of and the Irish would be wise to focus on as well.
They’ve dropped off from last year, which is to be expected given the talent they lost, but they can still be disruptive – they rank a not-as-bad-as-the-offense 49th in TFLs and an impressive 15th in sacks. Their main problem is that they’ve been sloppy – they’ve given up some big pass plays on blown assignments and been gashed on the ground when their LBs get overly aggressive. It turns out the mega-blitzing defensive approach works better when you have four NFL draft picks, including two first rounders, executing it. Weird, huh? They’ve also had trouble with crossing patterns, although Brown has worked in some more man coverage to combat that glaring weak spot from last year.
They have some guys who can get you. But they can most definitely be gotten themselves, and they have been several times this year.
Something’s Gotta Give
Notre Dame is facing a top 20 team, on the road, after a bye week. Michigan is hosting a top 10 team, after a hard-fought road loss to another top 10 team.
In the Harbaugh era, Michigan is:
- 28-4 at home
- 14-4 in October
- 14-16 against teams with an end-of-year winning record
- 9-12 against teams ranked at game time
- 6-3 at home against teams ranked at game time
- 5-3 at home against teams ranked in the top 15 at game time
- 1-3 at home against teams ranked in the top ten at game time (win over #8 Wisconsin in 2015, losses to #7 Michigan State and #8 Ohio State in 2015 and #8 Ohio State in 2017)
In the Kelly era, Notre Dame is:
- 39-23 away from home
- 26-7 in October
- 11-1 after a bye week (only loss was 2011 USC)
- 5-0 away from home after a bye week (four neutral site and one “true” road game, at Temple in 2015)
- 19-20 against teams ranked at game time
- 8-5 post-2016 against teams ranked at game time
- 4-10 on the road against teams ranked at game time
- 1-3 on the road post-2016 against teams ranked at game time (win over #24 Virginia Tech in 2018, losses to #3 Georgia in 2019 and #7 Miami and #21 Stanford in 2017)
Prediction
Notre Dame hasn’t won in Ann Arbor since 2005 – the notorious “Henne was in!” game in Charlie Weis’s first season, in which Michigan fans demonstrated the MS Paint dexterity of a five-year-old and a complete lack of understanding of parallax. Demetrius Jones set the tone for the 2007 game when he refused to board the bus after losing the starting QB job; the Irish lost 38-0. In 2009, it was Tate Forcier (I can’t believe this site still exists) capitalizing on Weis’s horrific clock management to steal one. In 2011, Denard Robinson’s heroics and Gary Gray’s lack of spatial awareness sullied the phenomenal Under The Lights unis. In 2013, Devin Gardner downed some NZT and donned the #98 jersey of Tom Harmon (whoever the [bleep] that is) to render obsolete one of the most fantastic big-guy TDs of all time.
That was fun, right? Anyway… Weird stuff happens in Ann Arbor. I get it. But the 2007 Notre Dame team was bad and the 2009, 2011, and 2013 teams were mediocre at best, while the Michigan teams they faced ranged from mediocre (2009, 2013) to good (2007, 2011). This time Michigan is mediocre at best and Notre Dame is legitimately good, and not only that, but Michigan’s weaknesses – pass protection, interior rush defense, etc. – happen to align with Notre Dame’s strengths. I think this Irish team is past being overwhelmed by raucous road environments, as they showed in Athens earlier this year. I also think that whatever this Michigan team is, it sure as hell isn’t anywhere near the quality of Georgia. I’m about 75% confident in a Notre Dame win this weekend, with the main question for me being what the margin will be.
But of course, I’m not without concerns. There are in fact a few key questions I have going into the game:
- Will the Irish continue the run success they found against USC? USC is stronger up the middle than Michigan, so unless Notre Dame’s OL just had a really good day a couple of weeks ago there’s every reason to think they’ll be able to move the ball on the ground. The identity of this offense, which we all thought preseason would be a fast-tempo spread passing attack, seems to be drifting more toward a patient and punishing ground attack. If that is indeed the case, and the Irish are able to continue the upward trend of the run game, it could be a very long day for the Michigan defense.
- Is Shaun Crawford really ready to jump back into the fray? Crawford suffered a gruesome dislocated elbow against Virginia, reportedly tearing several ligaments in the process, and is somehow going to be available for this game four weeks later. His absence against USC was likely the primary driver of Clark Lea’s rope-a-dope strategy, and if he can’t hold up through this game we could see more of the same. If the erstwhile Michigan commit can step right back into the flow and allow the Irish to cover Michigan’s top three receivers with three actual corners? Concern level lowered.
- How much of a factor can Jafar Armstrong be? The Athletic’s Pete Sampson pointed out recently that while Tony Jones, Jahmir Smith, C’bo Flemister, and Avery Davis each bring certain skills that the coaches like, the reason they like Armstrong most of all is that he wraps all those skills up in a single package. He’s bigger than you think (6-1/220+), he has an excellent top gear, he’s a plus receiver out of the backfield, etc. If Armstrong is ready to be a meaningful part of the game plan, Chip Long will be able to get a lot more creative.
Notre Dame 27
Michigan 20
Back to that Wikipedia entry:
At least one account reported a wolverine’s apparent attempt to steal a kill from a black bear, although the bear won what was ultimately a fatal contest for the wolverine.
You know, Michigan fans, sometimes you eat the bear and sometimes the bear eats you. Feeding time.
If ND plays a clean game, no turnovers and few penalties, I very much like our chances. The home crowd and Big Ten refs make me nervous. I can see Claypool breaking out if Brown puts his CB’s in single coverage.
I would love to see a Claypool breakout game. He has gone over 100 yds TWICE EVER, Wake in ’17 and NW in ’18. He seems to have tons of talent and athleticism, good hands, decent at 50/50, but just hasn’t turned all that into productivity. Maybe he runs bad routes and can’t get separation? Helluva a gunner though.
I think last year he “suffered,” as much as you can call a 50-catch year suffering, from Boykin being Book’s favorite target. This year, I think he has suffered mostly from Book’s issues seeing things. He doesn’t even have to be open – even when the guy’s right next to him he’s not really covered. Book just needs to trust him more and put the ball up.
I don’t think that’s correct–Boykin drew attention from Claypool–now there’s nobody to do that, especially when Kmet was out. Fink definitely doesn’t do that. I like Claypool, but there are lots of other WR’s out there I’d rather have–unfortunately not on our team.
Book absolutely looked for Boykin when he was in a bind, and absolutely doesn’t look for Claypool for whatever reason.
The receivers are fine. The issues in the passing game aren’t on them – they’ve been getting open. It’s Book, and I’m one of his biggest defenders.
Biggest defender of Book? Facts not in evidence, as they say.
Which of our receivers are fine? If they are, why don’t they get better separation? Why do we have no true deep threat, regardless of whether Book can or cannot hit the deep ball?
Kmet is elite IMO. I think he would start at any of the elite programs. Claypool is a good receiver who has the toughness and power to get YAC , but would not be the number one receiver at any of the true elite programs. He wouldn’t start at Baja, Clemson, tOSU etc.
As for Fink, I doubt he makes it beyond practice squad at those schools the way he’s played this year, and we don’t have a bona fide 4th receiver, just a collection of part timers. I don’t see a fine receiving corps thus far. Not awful, but not fine. Kinda average.
And no, I don’t think our problem is Book not looking at Claypool. Why wouldn’t he? Maybe he’s just stupid? Or maybe he does look for him and you missed it, or maybe Claypool isn’t the receiving monster you think he is.
It’s clear we disagree. Let’s both hope things work out for our guys.
With ND being the road team, won’t the refs be from the ACC?
No. For some reason Swarbrick allowed the home team to have the refs for this two-year contract, so we had ACC refs last year and they will have B1G refs this year. It was probably a concession to Michigan’s paying millions of dollars to cancel the Arkansas series AND give us the first home game AND let us play them in the heat of conference season just to get us back on the schedule again.
(The home team used to have the refs in this series due to UM’s not-at-all-suspicious refusal to allow any non-B1G refs to officiate games in Ann Arbor, but Swarbrick managed to break them of that after the 2009 game, where their refs made so many terrible calls and non-calls that they came about as close as you can come to straight-up taking a game away from an opponent; the visiting team provided the refs from 2010-14.)
You know, it really says something when the identity of the refs has to become part of the negotiated contract between the two schools. The logical inference is that schools (especially UM after having at least one ND game gifted to them on their home turf) perceive and, indeed, understand that certain refs will give them an advantage. That’s just wrong.
I have long thought that the FBS schools ought to all contribute to a pool of money to hire refs that would officiate all games involving FBS schools. Then, it won’t be such a big deal. If anyone gets screwed, it’ll be the FCS schools who play FBS schools. Remember, Alabama needs all the help it can get against Western Carolina.
It’s been that way since at least Rockne…back then refs were often sportswriters, but who chose the refs was part of the negotiations to have a game even 100 years ago
If he’s going to do it this year, this is the time for Finke to have a big game. Michigan’s major weakness is still a struggle against slot receivers. If he isn’t making plays by halftime, I hope Long turns to Keys for a good stretch in the second half.
I also think Kmet is going to destroy them on seam routes. Those LB blitzes open up the middle of the field, and their safeties just don’t break on the ball that well.
All that being said, I’m not expecting a big day on the ground, despite the fact that we’ve been running well post-Georgia. If we get a lead and can wear down Kemp late, I could see us milking the clock well in the 4th. But up until then, Book is going to need to bring his A-game.
24-17 Irish. Doerer hits a big 40+ yard field goal that gives us a cushion that keeps us from feeling scared that Michigan could take the lead late, but we never truly feel like OT is out of the question until the final whistle.
Stealing this from Jamie at ISD – his preview said they’re probably going to try to use Hudson to cover Kmet, which is mostly what they’ve done this year. That would be an utter disaster, Kmet would eat him alive.Just need Book to be able to get the ball to him.
Book typically DOES get the ball to him–e.g. 9 times vs Georgia.
You like coming at me tonight, lol… My comment wasn’t about Book getting the ball specifically to Kmet. It’s about getting the ball out on time and on target against the blitz, which has been a clear problem for him this year. And we know Brown is going to blitz him like crazy.
No, I’m not coming after you Brendan, I enjoy your stuff, respect your opinions, just have some of my own that differ. In particular I think Book gets dumped on way too often, considering the key offensive injuries we’ve had, a penalty plagued Oline at critical moments, and an average receiving corps.
I pretty much only come to this site because I enjoy the writing, which is much more professional than other ND sites, and I enjoy the discussions, even the ones that become friendly debates.
So keep up the good work. I only take time to engage with those I respect. Others aren’t worth the bother, none of which write for 18S.
One factor I have not seen pointed to in any article, but I think is very overlooked, is the weather forecast. Looks like torrential rain & steady wind are expected around game time. This should emphasize the importance of running the ball for both teams.
https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=42.28210000000007&lon=-83.74846999999994#.XbMETOhKg2w
Based on recent history doesn’t that mean Kelly is going to come out and throw 50 times???? OY VEY!
Great, now I’m having PTSD about a first year center snapping it in the rain.
I feel like there’s a non-zero chance that if we win this game it’s the deciding factor (in addition to a loss to tOSU which seems as given) which results in Harbaugh not returning next year. If that happens… anyone with recruiting knowledge know which Mich commits we’d have a good chance of flipping?
Every single Michigan insider says there’s a basically zero percent chance of Harbaugh being fired after this season even with a worst-case 8-5 season. I think the Harbaugh-hot-seat is a nationally created story that isn’t really true on Michigan’s campus.
Being fired isn’t the only way to leave a job. There will be a lot of high profile NFL jobs open this winter. Not sure where his mindset is, and maybe he wants to stay but 5 years in going 8-5 (or 9-4) and getting put over Ohio State’s knee every year might make for a self-ejection by Harbaugh.
The idea of Harbaugh leaving of his own accord after coming in as the presumed hometown boy savior is far more delicious than the idea of Michigan firing him, anyway.
I tried explaining this to my wife the other day and she looked at me like I was crazy, but I still agree completely.
Really? I don’t get that Andy.
I don’t think he’s going to be fired but I do think there’s a chance he could bail to the NFL (assuming someone wants him) based on how the rest of the season plays out. If Gattis looks like a mistake, if Brown has maybe lost his touch a little, etc., I’m not sure how much appetite Harbuagh would have for a mid-era rebuild.
As far as recruits to flip, I think there are only a handful we might target:
WR AJ Henning, #83 overall
SDE Braiden McGregor, #107
S Jordan Morant, #167
S Makari Paige, #243
S RJ Moten, #281
I’m actually not sure the staff would revisit McGregor – I don’t think what he did sits well with them. Morant wasn’t ever that interested in what ND had to offer. Paige is a Michigan kid, I doubt he’d flip. I’m sure the staff would kick the tires on Moten, they really like him.
Henning is not a likely flip but probably the least unlikely. He liked ND a lot early, then got wooed away by Gattis’s #SpeedInSpace crap. If Gattis is still there I’d expect Henning to be solid. If he’s gone, who knows.
I don’t think I would be all that thrilled with a MacGregor flip. That’s just a crappy way to do people.
Agreed, 100% even though I feel like he was in an uncomfortable position of just playing the pawn being moved around by Harbaugh and the Michigan program. Either way, I’d move on from him.
(Now, if he was a corner and not a DE….)
Well maybe we flip Henning and that would allow Xavier Watts to move to corner. I’ve heard that he is excellent there.
But, probably the staff have assured him that he will be at WR so that would be an issue, but maybe not…
I think they talked to him about playing either, but he committed a while ago at this point and my memory isn’t what it used to be.
Don’t know about the possibility of flips, I’ll leave that for the experts like Brendan, but man we could certainly use a top 300 safety in this class. Would be even more awesome if that would happen to come at scUM’s expense.
I’m very interested in the start, feels like neither team has particularly good first quarters. Best case scenario would be to rattle Patterson early and one of the DLs forces the fumbles that he loves to cough up. Hopefully put them into a hole big enough that they can’t get out of and I would assume a lot of mounting pressure/ “here we go again” vibes from the stands and sideline alike if it’s like 14-0 early on a ND TD, turnover, short field TD.
I feel good about Kelly/Long off the bye really opening up with Armstrong on a lot of stuff they haven’t been able to use all season. Still think it’s likely a 24-21 type of nailbiter that could go either way though, but fairly confident ND has the better team.
Let’s just focus on this for a few seconds: “Like many other mustelids, it has potent anal scent glands used for marking territory AND sexual signaling.”
May God have mercy on the amorous targets in the greater Ann Arbor area.
Bleacher Report saying that Michael Young is entering transfer portal after being red-shirted this year.
1. Did BK or anyone announce this RS? If so, I missed it.
2. Is he graduating? (and presumably grad transferring after feeling like he’s getting passed up by younger kids)
Tom Loy from 24/7 has it with “multiple sources” ND hasn’t commented yet but looks legit. Loy said Young will leave the team immediately, graduate in early 2020 and have 2 years of eligibility (so this year is an under 4 game played redshirt for him). Kinda stinks he couldn’t stay healthy but oh well. Need Lenzy to be a consistent player ASAP now.
247 didn’t have the detail that ND was going to redshirt him on their own looks like the only minor part not also mirrored. Not saying it’s not true, just noting the difference.
https://247sports.com/college/notre-dame/Article/Fighting-Irish-receiver-Michael-Young-transferring-from-Notre-Dame-Football-137476390/
Nothing has been confirmed, but I would hazard a guess that Braden Lenzy surpassed him in the WR pecking order. That would be the only on-field reason for this decision to come out at this time, and there’s no rumbling I’m aware of that anything happened off the field.
True. Even then, Young nearly had a kick return for a TD a few days ago against USC! A very odd fall from grace to pull the rip cord on the season at this point. I remember reading over the past few weeks/months some Pete Sampson ever-so-subtle hints the team seemed miffed or displeased that Young tended to miss a lot of time with injury, so maybe that wore on him? Or that he did sense that Lenzy was getting more work than him. Maybe we’ll learn more.
Either way, a deep cut trivia question about being the first player to use the 4 game redshirt rule to his own personal benefit to preserve a year’s worth of eligibility at Notre Dame’s expense.
https://twitter.com/PeteSampson_/status/1187805996439298050
“For the season, Michael Young had played in three games and was targeted nine times for 21 yards. His 2.3 yards per target was last among Irish receivers.
Braden Lenzy had moved ahead of Young in the rotation during the USC game. Now that’s permanent.”
I see no big loss for us here. All hype, no production. We need Lenzy to be able to open things up for Claypool. Better yet, take it deep, successfully.
The timing and circumstances feel really weird. Mid-season. hard out. I don’t know. Seems odd. Why not wait til after the big game to announce so as not to create a distracting narrative for your team?
If you’re leaving by your choice the driving motive is about you, not about your team. Even if you really deep down care about your teammates, in the moment you’re reacting about how you feel and what you think is best for you.
The rain helps us right? More running and less passing by both teams overall is a net positive for ND, I would think. That could explain the additional 3-point shift in the spread.
Then again, who knows if Brian Kelly will do the “more running and less passing” thing.
I think the offensive identity has definitely shifted toward “power running game” since the fourth quarter of Virginia, which is of course exactly what we all predicted preseason. So if I had to guess, I think we’ll see an offensive game plan similar to what we showed against USC, especially since Michigan’s most vulnerable spot on D might be the interior run defense.
FWIW the line has been at ND -1 since midday Wednesday. The weather *might* have factored into the move, but mostly I think it’s people thinking it was a stupidly generous line. We’ll see.
Being able to use the two back set, and double tight ends, seems to be right in Chip Long’s wheelhouse. So I am wondering how Jafar will really pan out, and whether tremble can up his run passing game.
Brendan – a very nicely written analysis and forecast, thank you!
Re the animal: a weasel yes, but methinks you cherry picked the words you used (for dramatic effect I’m sure), Brendan 🙂
Per Wikepedia: “The wolverine (/ˈwʊlvəriːn/) (also spelled wolverene), Gulo gulo (Gulo is Latin for “glutton”), also referred to as the glutton, carcajou, skunk bear, or quickhatch (from East Cree, kwiihkwahaacheew), is the largest land-dwelling species of the family Mustelidae. It is a stocky and muscular carnivore, more closely resembling a small bear than other mustelids. A solitary animal,[2] it has a reputation for ferocity and strength out of proportion to its size, with the documented ability to kill prey many times larger than itself. ”
I can tell you from experience, you don’t want to take on this animal, especially if it feels cornered.
Re the football Wolverines, hard to say what they are. Penn State clubbed them in the 1st half, but UM beat them badly in the second half, and would have tied with a couple minutes to play in regulation but for an atrociously dropped TD pass in the end zone by the best (reputed) UM receiver. Who knows what would have happened if an overtime had ensued, but the momentum was all UM. They lost the game because they could not contain KJ Hamler, who beat them deep for 3 TD’s. He absolutely took the top off the defense. Sadly, we don’t have one of those.
Charbonnet is the real deal, can make his own holes, is shifty and fast.
And the home crowd will hurt us. I firmly believe the home field advantage from a loud, engaged hometown crowd in a huge stadium wins games–I think that’s what cost us the GA game, it cost UM the PSU game (they were in a fog first half). Heck, it cost us the Miami game last time we played them there, we went into a fetal ball position. I just hope it doesn’t happen tomorrow.
I’d rather have Book than Patterson, but I’d like a couple of their receivers vs Fink and whoever our 4th guy ends up being. It may come down to which runner, Jones or Charbonnet has a significantly better game than the other if it’s in a downpour. Or Kmet torments them.
If its not a downpour, our guys have to rattle and hit Patterson early and often. And Book has to have some time.
Lets see, on a sliding scale, I hate USC above all, then OSU, then UM. But its a darn close call.
I think we would all trade any of our opponents’ top receiver for Finke at this point in the season. He was so clutch last year and this year has been such a disappointment. Hoping he turns things around (Book too).
What hurt worse for the Miami game? Our identity as a Wimbush-led offense or the crowd? I think if he hits that deep ball open TD to start the game, it plays out a little differently. That feels like forever ago though.
The rain will play a factor. Hopefully we don’t go full monsoon game plan.
Displeasure Scale: USC, UM, BC, OSU, SEC.
I actually think “home field advantage” is where the weather helps us most. Weather is not likely to change the “up-ness” of the players, but it can certainly sap the spirit out of a crowd very quickly!