The ranks of the undefeated shrank once again over the weekend. Wisconsin faltered on the road as major favorites against Illinois, providing a fresh shake up to the Big Ten if not the national picture as a whole. As we wait for a couple titanic matchups (Alabama vs. LSU and Ohio State vs. Penn State) to further shake up the top of the polls we inch closer to understanding the playoff picture and major bowl bids.
This Week’s Biggest Winner: James McCourt, K, Illinois
Talk about going from unknown to the front page. McCourt actually missed a kick earlier in the game against Wisconsin but dead-on nailed the game-winner as time expired to send the Badgers packing with their tail between their legs. We can’t stress enough how big of an upset this game was last weekend.
This Week’s Biggest Loser: Paul Chryst, Wisconsin
Although he is 8-10 against ranked teams at least Wisconsin was a program that punched well above its weight and rarely lost in big upsets to weaker teams. They’ve now lost 3 games to unranked teams since the start of 2018 and even with those 8 wins against ranked teams they are 0-6 when facing teams that finish in the top 10, as well.
18 Stripes Top 20 Poll
| RANK | TEAM | RECORD | LAST WEEK |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alabama | 7-0 | 35-13 Win vs. Tennessee |
| 2 | LSU | 7-0 | 36-13 Win vs. Miss State |
| 3 | Clemson | 7-0 | 45-10 Win vs. Louisville |
| 4 | Ohio State | 7-0 | 52-3 Win vs. Northwestern |
| 5 | Oklahoma | 7-0 | 52-14 Win vs. West Virginia |
| 6 | Penn State (+1) | 7-0 | 28-21 Win vs. Michigan |
| 7 | Notre Dame (+1) | 5-1 | BYE |
| 8 | Florida (+1) | 6-1 | 38-27 Win vs. South Carolina |
| 9 | Auburn (+2) | 6-1 | 51-10 Win vs. Arkansas |
| 10 | Georgia | 5-1 | 21-0 Win vs. Kentucky |
| 11 | Oregon (+1) | 6-1 | 35-31 Win vs. Washington |
| 12 | Utah (+4) | 6-1 | 21-3 Win vs. Arizona State |
| 13 | Wisconsin (-7) | 6-1 | 24-23 Loss vs. Illinois |
| 14 | Baylor (+3) | 7-0 | 45-27 Win vs. Oklahoma State |
| 15 | SMU (+4) | 7-0 | 45-21 Win vs. Temple |
| 16 | Texas (-2) | 5-2 | 50-48 Win vs. Kansas |
| 17 | Minnesota (+3) | 7-0 | 42-7 Win vs. Rutgers |
| 18 | Memphis (NR) | 6-1 | 47-17 Win vs. Tulane |
| 19 | Cincinnati (NR) | 6-1 | 24-13 Win vs. Tulsa |
| 20 | Wake Forest (NR) | 6-1 | 22-20 Win vs. Florida State |
OUT: Boise State, Michigan, Arizona State
IN: Memphis, Cincinnati, Wake Forest
Top 15 vs. SP+ Top 50
Alabama 3-0 (Wins: #25 A&M, #33 South Car, #48 Ole Miss)
LSU 3-0 (Wins: #12 Florida, #17 Texas, #39 Miss St)
Clemson 1-0 (Wins: #25 A&M)
Ohio State 4-0 (Wins: #22 Indiana, #28 MSU, #32 Cincinnati, #46 Nebraska)
Oklahoma 2-0 (Wins: #17 Texas, #41 Texas Tech)
Penn State 4-0 (#14 Michigan, #24 Iowa, #47 Maryland, #50 Purdue)
Notre Dame 2-1 (Wins: #23 USC, #35 Virginia; Losses: #5 Georgia)
Florida 3-1 (Wins: #10 Auburn #31 Miami, #33 South Car; Losses: #4 LSU)
Auburn 4-1 (Wins: #11 Oregon, #25 A&M, #39 Miss State, #42 Tulane; Losses: #12 Florida)
Georgia 1-1 (Wins: #19 Notre Dame: Losses: #33 South Car)
Oregon 1-1 (Wins: #13 Washington; Losses: #10 Auburn)
Utah 2-1 (Wins: #26 Wash St, #34 ASU; Losses: #23 USC)
Wisconsin 2-0 (Wins: #14 Michigan, #28 MSU) -loss to #70 Illinois
Baylor 4-0 (Wins: #17 Iowa State, #29 Oklahoma St, #38 Kansas St, #41 Texas Tech)
SMU 2-0 (Wins: #30 TCU, #44 Temple)
As many have claimed this feels like an incredibly wonky year for SP+ as Bill C. has made his debut with ESPN. The Irish only 19th, just 3 spots better than Indiana? A 3-4 Miami team close to Top 25 status? Maryland is 3 spots ahead of a team it lost to by 26 points? Things are really weird.
Semi-hot take: A case could be made that Notre Dame should be 10th in this poll.
Week 9 Games to Watch
Wisconsin (+14.5) at Ohio State – This is a tough spot for Wisconsin all of a sudden as last week they were looking like the heavy favorites to play in the Big Ten Championship. Now, a loss here drops them possibly 2 games behind Minnesota for the division lead. Also, this trip to Columbus is followed by a really difficult (for B1G standards) finish to the season, including a possible division-deciding trip to Minneapolis in the finale. I know many believe Ohio State hasn’t been tested yet but they’ll pass this one. Buckeyes 30-17.
Auburn (+11) at LSU – This is the third straight road game for Auburn in a weird schedule that sees them finish with 4 home games. Meanwhile, LSU has a bye next week in preparations for a massive showdown with Alabama that looms on November 9th. We seem destined for that titanic matchup, please don’t let LSU lose beforehand and Tua be out with injury for the Iron Bowl kickoff. Bayou Bengals 29-23.
Penn State (-6.5) at Michigan State – Upset alert in a big way. This one checks all the boxes. Michigan State has won 5 out of the last 6 in the series. Penn State is coming off an incredibly emotional victory against Michigan. Of course, the line from Vegas seems to be taking this into account. This one should be weird. Spartans 27-24.
Texas (-1) at TCU – Upset alert, part two. Texas has been hanging by a thread in recent weeks following a near upset last week from Kansas. We haven’t seen much from TCU that is positive this year, including back-to-back losses and defeats in 3 out of their last 4 games. But folks, this is college football and we need upsets. This one just barely qualifies. Horned Frogs 47-44.Â
Yep, I have Penn St losing as well! As far as you saying Notre Dame can be 10th, yeah, 6-11 is super close to me.
Yeah honestly I would put us at 10. UGA has the head-to-head against us and Florida/Auburn both have better top tier wins and similar caliber losses to ours. I’ll be torn until Saturday on whether we’re an above average team (a la Michigan, Utah, Texas this year) or a just below top tier team (where we’re ranked right now generally).
My fear is that we’re right about as good as Michigan, my hope is we’re solidly above Michigan.
I went back and did some Paul Chryst analysis several weeks to counter some points on ND Nation as they want him to be ND’s next coach. I find the punchup theory interesting because people usually reference recruiting and not Poll ranking. I used 247 team rankings as a reference and looked at the team recruiting rankings of every UW opponent compared against UW own ranking. I did 2015 schedule vs 2014 recruiting rankings and 2016 schedule vs 2015 rankings. A punchup win was any win against a team that had a better ranking than UW. 2015 – UW had the 32nd ranked class in 2014. They had 1 punch up win on the season. USC in the bowl game. 2016 – UW had the 41st class in 2015. They had 3 PU wins (LSU, Mich State, Nebraska). 2017 – UW had the 35th class in 2016. They had 3 PU wins (Nebraska, Michigan, Miami in the bowl game) 2018 – UW had the 39th class in 2017. They had 2 PU wins (Nebraska, Miami in the bowl game) 2019 – UW had the 45th class in 2018. They’ve had 2 PU wins (Michigan & Mich St.) Here are their bad losses over that time. Any loss where they had a superior recruiting ranking. 2015 – Iowa and NW 2016 – None 2017 – None 2018 – BYU, NW, Minnesota 2019 – Illinois I went back and did Kelly as well just for comparison sake. All the same criteria that I did with UW. 2010 – ND had the 15th ranked 2009 class. They had 1 PU win. (USC) 2011 – ND had the 15th ranked class. They had 0 PU wins 2012 – ND had the 9th ranked class. They had 1 PU win. (USC) 2013 – ND had the 17th ranked class. They had 1 PU win. (USC) 2014 – ND had the 5th ranked class. They had 1 PU win. (Michigan). 2015 – ND had the 11th ranked class. They had 1 PU win (USC) 2016 – ND had the 13th ranked class. They had 0 PU wins 2017 – ND had the 15th ranked class. They had 2 PU wins (USC and LSU) 2018 – ND had the 10th ranked class. They had 2 PU wins (Michigan and USC) 2019 – ND had the 10th ranked class. They’ve had 1 PU win(USC) Here are their bad losses over that time frame: 2010 – Stanford, Navy, Tulsa 2011 – USF, Michigan, Stanford, Florida State 2012 – None 2013 – Pitt, Stanford 2014 – Florida State, ASU, NW, Louisville, USC 2015 – Clemson, Stanford 2016 – MSU, Duke, NC State, Stanford, Navy, Va Tech 2017 – Miami, Stanford 2018 – Clemson 2019 – None Also since Davie started in 97, Notre Dame is 175 – 104 with 4 different head coaches. Wisconsin is 211 – 81 over that same time frame with 4 different head coaches. Wisconsin has won the Big Ten 5 times (none by Chryst) since… Read more »
I’m impressed with the time that you had to put into this, and fascinated by the idea… but I think the methodology is flawed for a few reasons.
First, the use of a previous recruiting cycle to set a ranking seems a poor marker to determine a “punchup.” It is only looking at the ranking of the incoming freshman, not the whole team, and the part of the team that is least likely to contribute. Why not look at the overall Team Talent for a given season instead? ( https://247sports.com/Season/2019-Football/CollegeTeamTalentComposite/ )
Second, the ability to “punchup” is contingent upon being ranked below an opponent. If punchups make better coaches, by that reasoning both Chryst and Kelly have Sajben beat (and I don’t even have to research it to know that). Therefore raw numbers of punchups per year is pretty meaningless. One needs to look at percentage of wins given punchup opportunities or some similar metric.
Thirdly, there’s not a linear progression. If you are the 35th most talented team in the country, its not nearly the same punchup to beat the 25th team in the country than to be the 15th team in the country and beat #5, even though both wins are against a team exactly 10 spots higher. Based on 247 Team Talent numbers, the gap this year from #1 to #25 is about 270 points. That’s approximately the same gap between #25 and #90. Parody rains in the middle, but not as much at the top, without a way to account for that (such as comparing the talent difference of each punchup) one simply cannot compare the punchups, or lack of them, in the middle vs. near the top.
Oh I completely agree that it is a very simple formula. Only had so much time at work to waste haha. I really appreciate the feedback though. One nit though, the class would be Sophomores for the year played, not that they will be major contributors necessarily as a Sophomore.
I agree with you on the ‘punchup’ being meaningless. I always hear how Wisconsin punches up in relation to their recruiting rankings so that was my goal here to see how true that was. If i had more time, I would love to do a deep dive on this and really create an approach to this.
Fourthly, this analysis shows that losing to FSU once and Clemson twice were all bad losses, even though those teams were very good to excellent at the time and 2 of the 3 losses were 1-score games.
Fifthly, this analysis doesn’t count beating Oklahoma in 2012 or LSU in 2014 as punchup wins.
Fire up the takes: Baylor has more impressive wins than us this year, and they have zero losses. We could be 11th!
At this point the way I’m thinking about it is there are three tiers of playoff eligible teams left, regardless of strength of schedule to date: teams that control their own destiny, teams that need less help than us, and teams that need more help than us. I suppose there’s a fourth tier in there that’s just Notre Dame.
Thirteen teams can win out and make the CFP, note that only a max of 4 of these can win out as they play each other:
Alabama, LSU, Ohio State, Clemson, Oklahoma, Penn State, Florida, Auburn, Georgia, Wisconsin, Baylor, Minnesota, Wake Forest.
One team can win out and make it over ND with help from chaos in the teams above:
Oregon.
Then ND. Then Utah, which needs of help in addition to winning out, and likely needs a straight ND loss to clear a spot.
I personally think we’re going to end up with the P4 conference champs all making the playoff this year with Oregon and ND on the outside looking in (and a half dozen SEC teams that didn’t win their conference that’ll be crying about how they’re mistreated for not making the playoffs), and the way this season is playing out that’s fine with me. It’s the bargain we made by not belonging to a conference (or in Oregon’s case, a good conference). So by this metric we could be #15 I guess.
The committee is supposed to base their rankings on just this year (and not previous years). Because of that, based on Clemson’s lack of a resume this year (I just looked at their schedule again, smh), one could make the argument that Bama and LSU (assuming they both win out convincingly, besides their game against each other) both belong in the playoff over Clemson.