Word leaked out of South Bend today that Wake Forest defensive coordinator Mike Elko has agreed to take the same position at Notre Dame. His name first surfaced among Notre Dame reporters a couple of months ago, which led to his inclusion in 18 Stripes’s mid-season review of defensive coordinator candidates:

He’s not a household name for fans yet, but he’s well thought of within the coaching ranks. In his two-plus years at Wake Forest, he has turned in defensive S&P+ rankings of 37th, 60th, and 27th. Further, he had the Deacons ranked 24th in havoc rate in 2014 and currently has them ranked 18th, so he likes to be disruptive.

Elko’s hire affords Irish fans the opportunity to finally turn the page on one of the most disastrous defensive seasons and tenures in recent memory; like many in the Notre Dame fan base today, we here at 18 Stripes are very enthusiastic about bringing him on board. Before we dig into why that is, though, there are two points eminently worth making, given some of the search commentary and expectations out there:

  • Brian Kelly went dramatically outside the family for this hire, bringing in a guy who has neither direct nor indirect connections to him.
  • Notre Dame opened up the wallet to make the top candidate an offer he couldn’t refuse, in both dollars and years.

Many assumed that Kelly would hire from within or tab someone he was familiar with, and many also assumed that the administration would be too cheap to lure a top candidate. Today’s news isn’t a guarantee of anything going forward, of course, but at the very least it proves that both of those assumptions were misguided.

Resume

We’re assuming that, unlike our erstwhile out-of-central-casting head coaching hire, everything on Mike Elko’s resume is accurate… Elko earned a BA in history from Penn, where he also played linebacker and won an Ivy League title. He coached linebackers at Stony Brook – not to be confused with O’Leary’s graduate school, NYU-Stony Brook, which doesn’t exist – in 1999 before he went back to Penn to coach the secondary in 2000. In 2001 he served as the US Merchant Marine Academy’s defensive coordinator, before current Wake Forest head man Dave Clawson hired him at Fordham as a defensive assistant in 2002. Elko followed Clawson to Richmond in 2004; interestingly, he left Clawson’s Richmond staff in 2006 to become Hofstra’s defensive coordinator under Dave Cohen, who was his defensive line coach last year at Wake Forest. Stay with us here… Elko joined back up with Clawson at Bowling Green in 2009, this time as his defensive coordinator, and really started to build a name for himself. He followed Clawson again, this time to Wake Forest, in 2014.

Defensive Philosophy

Wake Forest’s defensive depth chart shows a 4-2-5 formation, although that’s a bit too simplistic – probably the best way to describe it is just as an even front. The two linebacker spots, dubbed MIKE and BUCK, feature guys who are “normal” inside linebacker sizes. The other second-level defender is the ROVER, which looks like a hybrid safety/linebacker spot more than a nickel back; the two guys on Wake’s depth chart at that position this year are 6’1″/215 lbs. and 6’3″/225 lbs. From digging through old YouTube videos – I care way too much about this stuff, I think – it’s apparent that Elko values versatility in his linebackers and defensive backs, praising a linebacker’s ability to defend spread offenses in multiple ways and a safety who plays deep, close, and everywhere in between. Obviously being a more flexible defender is better than, well, not, but the point here is that Elko places an emphasis on versatility.

At Bowling Green, Elko’s defense was closer to a 4-4 than a 4-2-5; also, as you might expect, Elko moves in and out of even and odd fronts depending on the situation, which is a further reason not rely too heavily on the 4-2-5 designation.  Larz gave us a quick sketch of some notable trends based on a scan of tape from one of Wake Forest’s games this past season; he and downinthebend are working on a more detailed analysis with film cut-ups, so definitely keep an eye out for that. We’re going to stay very high-level here for now.

Larz’s initial impressions are that Elko ran a lot of even-front looks on first and second down, presumably focused on stopping the run, or at least splitting focus on run and pass. On passing downs, odd fronts became more common along with some pressure packages. (This aligns with the advanced stats review coming below.) Short yardage, not surprisingly, involved some bear fronts. Interestingly, Elko would also have a safety creep up towards the line pre-snap but do any of a number of things, from blitzing to dropping into coverage to roving, post-snap.

Back in 2013, Bill Connelly said he could only come up with a “boring” answer as to what set Bowling Green’s excellent defense apart from most: the philosophy was to “be well-coached, smart and aggressive.” After a few seasons of watching a poorly coached, confused, and tentative defense, I think Notre Dame fans would gladly sign up for their own boring answer.

Why We Believe This Was The Right Move

On-Field Results

A huge thank you to our own Mike Bryan – he did the advanced stats breakdown and provided key direction on analysis. As a much-too-rough reminder, S&P+ essentially measures how good you are at winning plays, while FEI measures how good you are at winning drives.

Elko has produced some very effective defenses at Wake Forest and Bowling Green. He dipped a bit from his first year at Bowling Green to his second, but from his second to his fifth and final year there he improved steadily in defensive S&P+ – from 112th, to 74th, to 49th, to 38th. His points-per-drive ranking (better than raw points per game) improved in step, from 88th, to 66th, to 18th, to 10th. He was hurt at Wake in 2015 by a truly horrific offense, but even so his overall results have been good, and his 2016 defense was very good. This year, Wake Forest ranked 29th in defensive S&P+, 37th in defensive FEI, 19th in points per drive, 10th in turnovers, and 13th in sacks. The Deacons had 37 sacks this year, or one fewer than Notre Dame did in 2015 and 2016 combined.

Digging a little deeper into the advanced stats gives some insight into Elko’s defensive personality, as well. In 2014 and 2016 Elko turned in upper-third havoc ranks, which measures how disruptive the defense likes to be – what Bill Connelly calls a personality stat as opposed to an evaluative stat. In all but one of his eight years at Bowling Green and Wake Forest, Elko’s defenses have ranked higher in passing down defensive S&P+ than in total defensive S&P+, often much higher. Per Mike, this is an indicator of an effective bend-but-don’t-break approach – the goal is to hold the line until the opponent gets into an unfavorable down and distance (i.e., a passing down), and then get after it.

Elko’s results at Wake Forest become even more impressive when you consider the fact that a Wake Forest radio guy was giving playbook info and game plans to opponents. In all likelihood not every opponent used the info, and perhaps even not a majority of opponents. We know Louisville did, though, and we can assume at least a couple of other teams did too; if Elko put up good numbers not just at Wake Forest, but at Wake Forest when his opponents knew what was coming…

Institutional Fit

Wake Forest is an excellent academic institution; in the latest US News & World Report rankings, they checked in at #27 (Notre Dame was in a four-way tie for #15 with Vanderbilt, Rice, and Cornell). Elko himself is a Penn football alum, and his coaching resume includes stops at Penn and Fordham – he clearly has more than a cursory understanding of how to mix football and academics. We won’t go so far as to say the culture at Notre Dame is unique in major college football, but it’s unquestionably rare; Elko’s experience in similarly-oriented university cultures certainly will ease his transition to South Bend. Also, per reports, Elko really wanted the Notre Dame job, despite its various challenges. The willingness to embrace the opportunity is an excellent start.

Opponent Familiarity

Over the last three years, Elko has faced all the ACC opponents that Notre Dame will face on a semi-regular basis. We obviously wouldn’t have advocated restricting Notre Dame’s search to ACC candidates, but familiarity with common opponents doesn’t hurt. Perhaps more importantly, Elko is no stranger to the academy triple option, as Wake plays Army every year; and, true to form, his defenses did better over time against it. After giving up 5.8 yards per rush to the Black Knights in 2014, the Deacons held them to 3.6 yards per carry on 118 rushes over the last two seasons. Again, Notre Dame fans would be ecstatic with some boring defensive performances against the academies.