Hello 18S!  Quick intro: I’m Mike, and as my handle suggests, I graduated from Notre Dame undergrad in 2011, and stayed on for three more years at Notre Dame Law School.  As a tax attorney, I enjoy scenario planning and risk-adjusted thinking, and that’s what brings us to the topic of this article: what’s best for Notre Dame’s playoff interests.

For those of you on the 18S Discord (side note: if you’re not there, get there!), you’ve seen these for a few weeks.  What you’ll see here is not necessarily a list of lower-ranked teams beating higher-ranked ones; in at least some cases, the opposite actually increases ND’s playoff odds.  So let’s put our thinking caps on, and dive right in.

MIKE’S ND ROOTING GUIDE

Week 13 aka SEC Equal Opportunity Week

#22 Missouri (+7.5) over #8 Oklahoma, 12pm ET, ABC

Oklahoma squeaked out a win against the Crimson Tide on the back of a +3 turnover margin and strong defense, but only 212 yards of offense.  Missouri has become more one-dimensional since the loss of starting QB Beau Pribula, but ran for an impressive 326 yards against Mississippi State on Saturday.  It feels like the Tigers will need something out of now-starter Matt Zollers to spring the upset in Norman.

#15 USC (+9.5) over #7 Oregon, 3:30pm ET, CBS

The important game of the season for ND’s rooting interests so far.

Up until now, the consistent albeit begrudging USC rooting interest has been about propping up a former win.  Not this week!  The Ducks sit ahead of Notre Dame, and getting them out of there would create a little needed breathing room – and maybe a possibility of a home playoff game – for the Irish.  Also bolstering the USC win is nice, I guess.

Maryland (+13.5) over #18 Michigan, 4pm ET, BTN

Cheer for one rival; cheer against another.  Michigan has officially entered nuisance range on the heels of a rare road walk-off at Wrigley against Northwestern.  Surely they can’t beat Ohio State again, right?

Now the Wolverines head to College Park, where they’ll meet the Terps, who need two wins to go bowling.  Mike Locksley is returning in 2026 after a dreaded vote of confidence last week.  Will Maryland’s desperation shine through in a possible look-ahead game for the Skunkbears?

Pitt (+2.5) over #16 Georgia Tech, 7pm ET, ESPN

The Panthers still have a chance to win the maligned ACC, and wins at Georgia Tech and home against Miami would probably put Pitt into the ACC title game.  A drubbing of the ACC champion – or at the very least a participant in the ACC Championship Game – in their house would look nice for the Irish on Selection Sunday.

Meanwhile, the Bees won at the gun in Chestnut Hill on Saturday (side note: why do folks give Georgia Tech no grief at all over that, while we’re the target of ridicule for winning by 15 points?).  The Georgia Tech defense kind of exists, having given up 537 yards and 8.13 yards per play against the 1-10 Eagles.

This outcome would also set us up to become Tech fans next week when they “host” Clean, Old-Fashioned Hate.  Note that I say host in quotes, as Georgia Tech took $10 million to move the game from the friendlier confines of Bobby Dodd Stadium to Mercedes-Benz Stadium, which we can expect to be filled to the brim in crimson and black.

#11 BYU (-2.5) over Cincinnati, 8pm ET, FOX

The Big 12 has enough scenarios to break the Internet, so let’s keep it a simple-ish for this week, and number crunch in more depth next week if it’s needed.

I said it when the Cougars played TTU, and it still holds true: we want Texas Tech to win the Big 12.  The Red Raiders win next week at WVU, and they’re in the title game, no questions asked (they may clinch a berth this week if a stupidly unlikely series of events were to occur).  That largely leaves the issue of their opponent.  BYU is the most likely to join them as the only other one-loss team in the league, and based on how things went in Lubbock, that seems to be a satisfactory matchup.  But what if BYU loses another regular season game?  That would notably bring two teams back into the fold: Arizona State and Utah.

Arizona State is an even weaker team on paper than the Cougars, and would presumably be even less likely to upset the Red Raiders (yes, I say that knowing full well the Sun Devils were Texas Tech’s only defeat this season, albeit with the Red Raiders starting a backup QB).

Utah, however, would be an honest-to-goodness problem.  The advanced metrics LOVE the Utes, and they’ve smashed all of their opponents not named Texas Tech or BYU.  A Big 12 title game would be much closer to a pick ‘em than the TD+ line in favor of Texas Tech that any other potential opponent would offer.

For ND, the rooting interest is to keep Utah out of the Big 12 Championship Game.  It might not strictly speaking be the best scenario (that distinction would go to TTU getting another shot at Arizona State), but it’s the scenario that is most likely to result in one Big 12 team in the College Football Playoff:

MAKE-A-WISH GAMES

(As the name suggests, these are the true long shots that would impact ND’s playoff hopes, but are sufficiently unlikely as to warrant further analysis)

Charlotte (+44.5) over #4 Georgia

Eastern Illinois (+A Big Number) over #10 Alabama

Virginia Tech (+17.5) over #13 Miami