Saddle up for the 93rd meeting between Notre Dame and the United States Naval Academy, a yearly tradition stretching back to the Knute Rockne days in 1927. Have you heard? Navy football is in the midst of a terrific turnaround season following a dismal 3-10 record a year ago.
The Middies enter this weekend ranked in the AP and College Football Polls, have won 5 games in a row, and control their destiny in the AAC where they are tied for their division lead.
#23 Navy (+7) at #16 Notre Dame
Notre Dame Stadium
South Bend, Indiana
Date: Saturday, November 16, 2019
Time: 2:30 PM ET
TV: NBC
Skeptics are within their right to raise an eyebrow at a ranked Navy team being that scary in a way another 7-1 Power 5 team might be at this point in the season. Four of those victories have come against SP+ teams ranked 89th or worse, plus the addition of a win over FCS Holy Cross.
However, they did beat SP+ 36th ranked Air Force and 33rd ranked Tulane which is something. Navy’s lone loss came to SP+ 14th ranked Memphis by 12 points on the road in game three of the season. For what it’s worth, Memphis is currently rated higher than Notre Dame by SP+ and the Irish (22nd) currently sit just 2 spots ahead of 24th ranked Navy.
Navy’s Offense
For his first 3 years on campus Malcolm Perry was yanked back and forth between quarterback and slotback in Navy’s triple option offense. Despite back-to-back 1,000 yard rushing seasons as a sophomore and junior he was never fully given the keys to run the Middies offense.
That has changed for 2019.
Perry’s been his usual elusive self already amassing 1,042 rushing yards at 6.6 per rush with 16 touchdowns on the ground. Even scarier, he’s been a very sub-par passer in the past but this season he’s on fire with 722 yards at an absurd 13.6 yards per attempt.
Navy has rediscovered the fullback, as well.
In their shuffling of quarterbacks, and especially in the past with Perry, the fullback would get lost. For example, last year against Notre Dame starting fullback Nelson Smith carried the ball twice. Twice! In comparison, the Midshipmen quarterbacks and top slotback carried the ball for 33 of the 48 rushing plays in San Diego against the Irish.
My look at Navy for @ISDUpdate | Navy finished 3-10 last season and finished 101st in S&P+. They are 7-1 and 24th so far this season. Not enough people are talking about their turnaround in 2019 https://t.co/KuNrupGynS
— Jamie Uyeyama (@jamieuyeyama) November 13, 2019
Now, in 2019 Smith is second on the team in attempts and yards while doubling his carries per game from a year ago. It’s helped boost an offense that struggled to score last year and are now averaging 40.1 points per game, good for 9th best in the country.
Navy’s Defense
Head coach Ken Niumatalolo felt the heat back in December as he fired 4 defensive assistants, while coordinator Dale Pehrson retired following 23 years at Navy and 4 seasons as the DC.
Niumatalolo reached out to Kennesaw State’s Brian Newberry to coordinate Navy’s defense after an impressive run with the Owls that saw them force 56 turnovers over his final 27 games. That penchant for turnovers hasn’t really translated to Navy where they’ve forced 13 through 8 games, about the same as last year.
Scoring is way down, though. Last year, the Middies allowed at least 29 points in 9 out of their 13 games. Thus far, only Memphis (35 points) and Tulane (38 points) have reached that mark while Navy’s average points allowed has plunged 15.4 points to 18.1 per game.
In typical modern Navy fashion, size isn’t much of an issue especially as they’ve transitioned away from a 3-4 to Newberry’s 4-2-5 scheme. They are bringing a large nose guard Jackson Pittman at 6’3″ 300 pounds next to tackle Marcus Edwards at 6’4″ 289 pounds while the inside linebackers weigh 240 and 230 pounds, respectively.
One of the biggest off-season projects was to make the Navy defense more disruptive and that is paying off so far in 2019. Sacks per game have sky-rocketed from 0.77 to 3.0 while tackles for loss has similarly been boosted from 2.85/game to 7.13/game. It’s highly unusual for Navy to be 21st nationally in sacks and 25th nationally in tackles for loss but they are getting it done this year.
This is a big reason why Navy’s defense is averaging 1.65 yards per play less than last year, a terrific turnaround so far.
Prediction
This is the first time in 41 years (and just the second time in 62 years) that both Notre Dame and Navy are ranked at the time of kickoff. The Irish are 6-2-1 all-time when both teams are ranked prior to kickoff and 4-2-1 when Notre Dame is ranked at kickoff and Navy finishes the season ranked by the AP Poll with all those games coming in the 1941 to 1957 window.
So, it’s pretty rare when both Notre Dame and Navy are, at minimum, pretty good at the same time.
For some reason, it feels like this current Navy team isn’t quite as feared as some of their better teams in the past. Should this team finish the season at least 2-2 it would be the 8th time since the Paul Johnson era (beginning 2002) that Navy has won at least 9 games. In those other 7 seasons with at least 9 wins the Middies have beaten Notre Dame 3 times and nearly toppled Notre Dame another time in close a 4-point loss.
I think this one is going to be a struggle.
Ever since the Michigan debacle I’ve had this mentally jotted down as a loss for the Irish. It’s a Navy team back to having a potent offense, with a vastly improved defense (45th in SP+ which has to be up there as the best mark while facing Notre Dame), and they have been an outstanding first half team that lends itself to grabbing a lead and sucking time off the clock. In other words, Notre Dame’s biggest nightmare.
For me, the game should come down to two questions.
1) Can the Irish Contain Malcolm Perry?
Perry is averaging nearly 20 carries per game, 13th most in the country, and obviously the most by a quarterback. In the few games I’ve watched of the Middies he’s been making so much hay by punishing linebackers and safeties for taking bad angles. Other times, he’s just too slippery and elusive to contain on the edge. You think the edge is set and next thing you know, he’s ripped off a 20-yard run with ease.
Normally, it’s so important to get Navy off schedule when they have the ball on offense. This is going to be quite the chess match as the Irish have been very disruptive this year (t-19th nationally in tackles for loss) but really don’t want to leave themselves exposed to a long Perry run–or pass. For what its worth, Perry was hot fire last year running for 133 yards with 8 successful carries.
2) Will Good Ian Book Show Up?
Last year, the Irish offense torched Navy early and often finishing the game with the most total yards (584) and yards per play (7.68) on the season. Book especially was sharp completing his first 9 passes–and 17 of his first 18 passes–on the way to one of his best career performances.
I’m not sure Notre Dame trusts its run game now like it did last year (solid 56% success rate and 254 yards in San Diego) which likely means more pressure on Book to carry the offense against an improved Navy defense. That’s a bit scary when Navy could be the one getting the Irish off schedule and putting Book into a ton of second/third down and long situations.
My head still says things are lining up (just enough overconfidence from the Duke game, D-line injuries finally catching up with the defense, a vastly improved and overlooked Navy team, Middies coming off a bye with a ton of time to scout and prepare, pressure on Book to do so much, generally feeling like this is a 9-3 team) for this to be a loss. My heart says it’s a squeaker in double overtime.
I still think you go out there and play hyper-aggressive defensively, even with Perry’s ability to throw. Against most college teams (other than maybe the top 5-10 offenses in the country), I think it always makes sense to play bend but don’t break defense and force college kids to be efficient for 10+ plays. I’d much rather take away explosiveness.
But against Navy, they’re just to consistently sound, especially this year, to try that. I think you attack the backfield hard, and if that means Perry has multiple long TD passes, so be it. It’s a worthwhile trade off to try to stop then from grinding out five or six drives that last a dozen or so plays.
Irish win by 6, 34-28.
RE: the announced end of the sellout streak… If anyone here is inclined to stress about it, let me offer you my thoughts:
Yawn.
The reality is that the sellout streak has always been phony, and the November slate has always been particularly vulnerable. I went to games as a student 20+ years ago (blech) that had visible empty seats, and that was before the expansion (hello, Rutgers!). How plausible does it seem that 80,000 people were dying to see 5-5 Notre Dame, fresh off multiple-score losses to Tennessee and Pitt, face Boston College on November 23, 1999? You really think that on November 10, 2007, a capacity crowd packed Notre Dame Stadium to see 1-8 Notre Dame take on 1-9 Duke? What about new-to-FBS UConn on November 21, 2009, with one week left in the Obvious Charlie Weis Death March?
Hell, I got to the stadium 10 minutes before kickoff of the USC game in 1999 and got a ticket at less than face value from an exasperated scalper. USC! On a gorgeous October day! The sellout streak isn’t real, just like it isn’t real for anyone else (yes, Nebraska included, who guards theirs so jealously). The school has bought leftover tickets and given them away to local schools and clubs for literally decades – just as many, many other college and pro teams do to goose attendance figures. Hopefully they keep doing that, but dropping the charade of sellouts registers precisely zero on the concern-o-meter for me.
Bit of a tangent, that ’99 USC game might be my favorite game I ever attended. That comeback in the rain was something else.
I’m also not all that concerned with the end of the streak. I’ve never been someone to pretend that our fanbase are as intensely loyal as Nebraska’s, especially after seeing the Sea of Red game in 2000 in person.
I find it funny that Bowling Green and New Mexico were part of the sellout streak, but a game between two ranked teams with predictions of a close score was the one to end it.
Wow I was shocked to see Eric’s high point total! Great preview though. I agree that Perry and Book are the keys, which is problematic since Perry is a much better operator of his offensive system.
I really trust Lea though, it was 27-0 ND last year at the half against Navy and the rare low-to-no-stress game against them. Navy’s better this year then they were last season but that memory is fresh to me. Ideally this one gets to 14-0 quickly again and then cruise to avoid the dogfight at the end of the game. Navy also seems to grow with confidence if they’re able to hang around and sustain long drives.
So I’m hoping this game is 35-14 (maybe 21 with a garbage time TD). Fearing it’ll be a 27-24 type coin flip.
I thought that on first read-through too but I missed his double OT note, lol. So that’s really like 28-28 in regulation, which is maybe a little high but not unreasonable.
I don’t think a 14-0 lead at any point will be enough to pull them out of their base offense, based on their tendencies under Kenny. 21-0 in the first half probably would be. Niumatololo has been far more patient than most of his predecessors in sticking with the option, which I think is the smart choice – the old script of ND scores twice, Navy starts throwing but sucks at it, ND runs away was so predictable. His patience makes you keep earning it.
True on all accounts. I don’t care if they stay in their base offense, it’ll chew up the clock and if they’re down 2 TD’s I just feel comfortable at least. The game isn’t safe but it just feels easier as a fan.
The last 2 games Book has (finally) been throwing it down the field more. This is the only path to long term success imo. However, I’m torn in this game. I think we’re better overall stretching the field. I also think our turnover probability goes up, and Navy games can be too short to make up lost points due to turnovers. So… which is better on Saturday, aggressive Book, or super conservative Book?
Aggressive, IMO. All day long. Navy’s defensive system is good, they disguise a lot, mix up who is blitzing and not. Seems to be Book’s weak spots to ID quickly on who is dropping back and that’s where he gets in trouble and has really since the Pitt game last year when they confused him.
So back them off, I’d throw vertical to Claypool, that back shoulder stuff to McKinley they try like once a week, maybe even split Kmet out wide if that’s what it takes if Book can’t pick him up the seam. Use those size advantages Navy can’t match and push the ball downfield to the sidelines where they’ll probably have 1v1s. Doing the typical little drag routes or throwing to the flat is going to be a disaster, IMO. Might as well push it.
Nice preview. I’m hoping against hope that this turns into one of those weird AAC games that Navy loses occasionally where they get inexplicably shut down. But I think we all know this is going to be white-knuckles from beginning to end.
I decided to stop watching the annual Navy game after the 2014 match-up at FedEx Field. ND was up 28-17 at halftime, which felt decently comfortable. However, the level of frustration I felt about watching that lead turn into a 31-28 deficit entering the fourth quarter is indescribable.
Ah yes, the Memorial Joe Schmidt’s Ankle Mutual Respect Game
“Turning the boat around” — I thought maybe we were going to get a “row the boat” mention too…or is that only if BK loses this one?
Fleck x Buchner 2021 get on board now.
Feel free to pelt me with your empties, but I don’t remember ever feeling so apathetic about a game. Regardless of ND’s record or national standing, the Navy game is always comparable to going to the dentist. It’s not something anyone gets excited about, and absolutely dreads. I’m hoping beyond all hope the very public announcement about the sham sell-out streak is a clear indicator of an impending end to the Navy series. ND is only locked in to it for two more years, so 2022 could be the first season without Navy on the schedule.
From your keyboard to God’s ears (eyes?), my friend.
ND 38 Navy 24…….Two things to me. One, I don’t think Navy will be any better this season vs. Ian Book and his passing options. Two, the ND defense has players with over 800 plays of experience vs. the Navy option.(Thanks II) That’s a lot of experience, which should help negate Navy’s extra week off.