I don’t know why anyone was worried about winning this game. Jokes aside, this is the type of performance that will make people think the Irish are going to blow Navy out for the next 5 years. Don’t forget, Notre Dame kicks off against Navy in Ireland to open next season. Back to South Bend, where the Irish cruised against a turnover-prone Navy offense leading to an easy blowout victory.
Let’s recap the 10th game of the 2019 season.
Stats Package
| STAT | IRISH | NAVY |
|---|---|---|
| Score | 52 | 20 |
| Plays | 53 | 77 |
| Total Yards | 410 | 360 |
| Yards Per Play | 7.73 | 4.67 |
| Conversions | 5/11 | 9/21 |
| Completions | 16 | 4 |
| Yards/Pass Attempt | 13.8 | 6.0 |
| Rushes | 31 | 64 |
| Rushing Success | 50% | 44.2% |
| 10+ Yds Rushing | 4 | 7 |
| Defense Stuff Rate | 33.7% | 11.3% |
Offense
QB: A
RB: B
TE: B
OL: B+
WR: A
We figured the Irish would need a good performance from Ian Book and it was all that and more. He would throw just 6 incompletions–3 coming in his final series early in the 3rd quarter including a bad drop from Tony Jones–to 5 touchdown passes with several of his best deep passes of the season, including an absolute dime to Braden Lenzy for a 70-yard score.
Book’s 14.2 yards per attempt has to make Irish fans extremely happy. So should his sideline toss to Lawrence Keys, a deep cross-field dime to Finke, and a few nice throws to Claypool as the Canadian finished with a school-record tying 4 touchdown receptions.
Navy’s defense was supposed to be improved significantly, and Notre Dame made sure that was not apparent on Saturday afternoon.
Book wasn’t sacked, barely breathed on with one quarterback hurry, and Navy finished with a season-low 3 tackles for loss.
I think it’s easy to see just 105 rushing yards and be disappointed, but allow me to disagree.
Rushing Success
Jones – 7 of 9 (77.7%)
Armstrong – 2 of 7 (28.5%)
Book – 2 of 5 (40%)
Keys – 1 of 1 (100%)
Jurkovec – 0 of 1 (0%)
Flemister – 1 of 3 (33.3%)
Lenzy – 1 of 1 (100%)
Smith – 0 of 1 (0%)
First off, Notre Dame ran a season-low 53 plays which includes the 2 kneel-downs to finish the game. The passing game was so explosive and there were so few plays in total that I’m not sure it makes sense to get upset by barely running for 100 yards.
Secondly, the rushing performance was skewed by a bloated garbage time. Notre Dame was unsuccessful on their final 5 carries of the game stretching from late in the 3rd quarter and finished just 2 of 9 on successful running plays while Jurkovec was in at quarterback with vanilla play-calling.
With Book on the field, the Irish were successful on 63.1% of their carries. They weren’t very explosive but if this was a closer game I’m sure the ground game would’ve easily ran towards 200 yards with more snaps.
Defense
DL: A
LB: A
DB: B
Michigan was supposed to fumble like this, not Navy. The Middies didn’t shoot themselves in the foot, they did so multiple times while losing 4 fumbles, including an amazing batted pitch and catch by Rover linebacker Paul Moala that he took back for a touchdown.
I think it’s okay to say Notre Dame got a little lucky with 4 turnovers but to be fair they were very much forced.
Things were a little sticky early on as Navy quarterback Malcolm Perry looked every bit the dynamite runner he’s known to be. Unfortunately, he had so little help. If you can believe it, while Perry was in at quarterback (he was replaced with 5:18 to play in the 3rd quarter) Navy only managed 3 successful carries from their fullbacks or wingbacks.
The Middies put so much of the game on Perry’s shoulders and it would’ve been so hard for him to carry the ball 30+ times and keep moving the offense along. And, well, he fumbled too much.
Stuffs vs. Navy
(season stuffs in parentheses)
White – 4 (26.5)
Bilal – 2 (19)
Kareem – 2 (16.5)
MTA – 2 (12.5)
Ademilola, Jay – 2 (12.5)
Simon – 2 (3.5)
Owusu-Koramoah – 1.5 (13)
Lacey – 1.5 (3.5)
Moala – 1.5 (3.5)
Bracy – 1.5 (5)
Cross – 1.5 (2)
Hamilton – 1 (4)
Oghoufo – 1 (2.5)
Gilman – 0.5 (9)
Bauer – 0.5 (3.5)
Brown – 0.5 (1.5)
Clark Lea has to be smiling from ear to ear after this game. Notre Dame was super disruptive, had Navy off schedule constantly, and nearly pitched a shutout in the first half.
Navy did have a couple long runs of 46 and 26 yards. Their best 7 carries went for a total of 140 yards but their other 57 carries went for just 141 yards, or 2.47 per rush.
The Middies’ first and last drives of the first half showed promise but what happened in between, featuring 18 plays for 31 yards with 2 fumbles and a turnover on downs, absolutely buried them when Notre Dame scored touchdowns on 3 of 6 offensive snaps to build an early lead.
Final Thoughts
Technically the last couple opponents have been out-matched by Notre Dame’s talent but Ian Book seems so much more confident now. And confident Ian Book has usually been very prosperous for the Irish offense.
I hate to keep criticizing him but this was Jafar Armstrong’s 4th game back from injury and he’s putting together perhaps the worst running back season of the Kelly era. Armstrong now has 70 yards on 35 carries in 2019.
I know people will criticize having Jurkovec throw only 2 passes over 3 non-kneel down drives but his first completion–a long cross-field throw to Lenzy while getting drilled–was really impressive. Baby steps.
It may be time to officially get excited, especially if he can stay healthy, for a breakout 2020 season for Lenzy. After the Navy game he now has 5 rushes for 79 yards and 8 receptions for 199 yards on the year. Being able to put up 278 yards on just 13 touches is the type of explosiveness this offense desperately needs.
How many didn’t watch this game, saw Notre Dame just +50 in total yards, and were scratching their heads? Sure, the turnovers played a big part but the Irish were still over 3 yards per play difference at the final whistle. And that’s with just 37 yards on those last 3 boring offensive drives. I’m sure the advanced stats with garbage time removed are going to be brutally ugly for Navy.
How about Drew White this season, right? He’s up to a team-leading 26.5 stuffs in 2019.
The 4th down stop by Kyle Hamilton to drop Perry for a loss of a yard was just fantastic. The Middies were down 28-0 and approaching midfield with an opportunity to get back into the game. Hamilton was having none of it.
I just don’t understand punt return blockers pushing the first pursuing man in the back. The return man almost always will be able to juke that first man and it needlessly cost Chris Finke a nice touchdown.
As blocks in the back go, that was pretty close to being legal (in fact, I thought it was more on the shoulder than in the back).
True, which is why I hate them even more because refs always give the benefit of the doubt to the guy being blocked.
“Oh, he fell down. Flag.”
Still, how frigging hard would it be to simply wall off that man without blocking him? You don’t even have to touch the guy, just stand there and create a barrier between him and the returner. Blows me away every goddamn time, because it’s always super obvious, out in space as you are there, and the refs are always looking for that. I don’t understand how the return play is coached, and it’s not just a ND thing, either.
Has Book reached a new level now? He completed passes today he wouldn’t have even attempted a month ago? Does this recent improvement if sustained over the rest of the season, move the goal posts for him entering the draft? I thought the TD to Claypool that made it 14-0 was his best pass ever! That was true for about a half hour until the 70 yarder to Lenzy!
It’s possible. The throw to Keys was 40 yards in the air like he was Aaron Rodgers. Stuff like that can’t completely be attributed to playing a bunch of slower Navy defenders.
I’ve never seen Book as an NFL qb. I expect he’ll be back next year unless he decides to get a backup qb paycheck for a couple years, assuming he’d even be drafted.
On the other hand as a CFB starter he’s been very successful and I’m happy for him. 17-3 with losses to last year’s champion, this year’s(at least) SEC East champion, and to Michigan when he had zero run game help, is pretty darn good. And he’s setting ND QB season records in his last two games.
Glad you gave him an A, Eric. Is he the winningest starting qb in the Kelly era, percentage-wise?
That Tua injury reminds me of what happened to Jalen. I hope it isn’t career limiting. At first it sounded like the career ending injury that Bo incurred.
Some people aren’t going to like to hear this, but we’re more likely to win games against the likes of Clemson and Wisconsin next year with a third-year-starting Ian Book than a first-year-starter Jurkovic under center.
Yeah, I know Phil is the next big thing and all, but… You just don’t dump an experienced, winning QB that easily. There’s a very good chance that he’ll enter the offseason 20-3 as a starter (counting the LSU bowl game, in which he was clearly QB1 even if he didn’t technically start). And if the Book we saw on Saturday – who, by the way, is the Book all the media was raving about in camp – is what we’re going to get the rest of the way, man, look out.
Maybe PJ will transfer if Book comes back, but I doubt it. And if he does, he does – every program deals with it now. Handle that then. For now, if this Book is the real Book and he wants to come back, no question you take him.
Jurkovec might/should be just as worried about Clarke passing him on the depth chart, as he is about passing Book.
If Tyler Buchner is truly the real deal, he’d be coming in as a freshman by the time Book left as well. Someone’s going to end up the odd man out, you’d think, in that scenario.
Buchner 3TDs passing 3 running this past weekend. He has a big arm and excellent speed. From the highlights I’ve seen, I think he could be special.
Beginning with the VT game Book has been SO much better pushing the ball down the field and standing in the pocket. That Book, that is a Book that I want to keep around and doesn’t even allow consideration of PJ. For me it was only the “Book has hit his ceiling, and its too low” feeling that made me consider a switch. These past three games have all been: “What ceiling?”
Completely agree. Well, two plus two drives, lol, but yeah, I’m with you. This is the guy that blew the minds of all the assembled media in the final open practice preseason.
I really like him, but he only puts up good stats against weak teams.
Perhaps… Jamie at ISD (and others) said the throw to Lenzy was the best one he’s made in an Irish uniform. Deep, perfectly accurate, released on time, and released with anticipation – Lenzy wasn’t *that* open yet when he let it go. Greg at UHND also highlighted the deep corner throw to Finke, where Book saw it and released the ball to the open area before Finke made his final cut – it’s almost the same exact throw he didn’t make to Kmet against Michigan when it was painfully obviously there.
The level of competition definitely has to be taken into account, in all fairness, and you all know how much I typically loath the eye test. But there’s no question in my mind that Book looks like a completely different guy from the last drive of the Virginia Tech game to now. He, sadly, turned off the comments on his Instagram account before the Virginia Tech game, and ISD’s Matt Freeman said yesterday that he thinks “Ian Book has learned to just not give a **** about what other people say or have said about him.” [asterisks original, lol] Note that I’m not blaming angry fans for Book’s troubles (although if you’re an angry fan who attacks a kid directly, get a life). I’m just saying that it looks like he was unable to block out the noise earlier in the season and he might have figured it over the last couple of games.
I think the play calling also looked a little different against Navy. That’s something watch going forward too. But to me, the biggest apparent factor is that Book is playing with far more confidence right now than he did through the first 7+ games.
He’s certainly hanging and stepping up in the pocket better as the season progresses. Therefore it gives his receivers an extra second+ to get open.
To me, turning off the comments doesn’t mean he doesn’t give a shit, it means he does. He just learned that the only way to ignore them is to not see them at all.
Stop me if you’ve heard this one before….Book performs well against a less than stellar defense that doesn’t have the athletes in their starting unit that we have in our 2nd unit. Not trying to be too harsh on Book but he’s going to have to perform well against a better defense than Navy’s before I’m willing to even entertain that he’s turned the corner.
Yeah, but he hasn’t performed that way against other bad defenses we’ve seen this year – not even New Mexico, really, if you take out the two long pop pass TDs that were basically runs. He also looked much better against Duke and on the last two drives against Virginia Tech, although the numbers weren’t as gaudy.
If you watched that performance and didn’t think he looked at all different, I don’t know what to say. I know that’s not the argument you’re making here, and I get the skepticism, but I think it’s entirely valid to believe he 100% looked like a different guy out there. He was throwing with anticipation, which is something he hasn’t done since the USC game last year. His ball placement was the best it’s been all year, including against New Mexico and Bowling Green. The deep throws to Lenzy and Claypool were the best he’s ever made in the 21 “real” games he’s played.
I’m not sold that he’s turned the corner yet either, but I’m willing to entertain it based on how he looked the other day.
Progression isn’t linear, so if the question is “Will we ever see “bad Book” again?” I have to think the answer is yes. But if the question is, “Has he shown real improvement such that he’s doing things with a certain level of consistency not previously seen (vs. any level of competition)?” For me the answer is also absolutely yes. And generally, that’s what I think we mean when we say he’s turned the corner.
He completed less than 60% of his passes against Duke and his YPA was like 6. That’s not MUCH better. That’s about where he’s been all year.
He looked entirely different against Duke than he did earlier in the year. If he didn’t have his longest completion of the day called back for a BS non-existent hold his YPA would’ve been 7.8. He also lost two excellent sideline completions for about 50 yards on Tremble not being able to get his foot down and Armstrong losing track of where he was; throw those in and his YPA would’ve been over 9 and his completion percentage at 64%. More importantly, he looked more confident in the pocket than he had all season to that point (although he took that to another level against Navy).
Here’s ISD’s Jamie Uyeyama on the Duke game:
“Even outside of his running, I thought Book looked closer to the 2018 version of Book again this week. That has to be a good sign that he’s put together back to back encouraging performances (speaking specifically of the final drive against Virginia Tech)… This was one of the better performances of the season for Chip Long’s group and Ian Book was the biggest reason behind it. If Virginia Tech was a step in the right direction, this was another game to build on for him as both a passer and runner.”
And Irish Illustrated’s Tim O’Malley:
“Book to Finke with third-down conversion No. 2 on the drive and Book absolutely fired it in there after stepping up in the pocket. This is just like September and October…of 2018.”
And Irish Illustrated’s Tim Prister:
“If Book’s performance is a reflection of what’s to come for the balance of the regular season and perhaps beyond in a Notre Dame uniform, the Irish finally might be on to something that is sustainable.”
And The Athletic’s Pete Sampson:
“That theory that the Irish had begun to check out after their primary goal went by the boards? That doesn’t add up when quarterback Ian Book plays his best game of the season, when the defense allows fewer than 200 yards, when Notre Dame makes its passing game work with four available receivers… Statistics aside, there was no doubt from Notre Dame that this marked Book’s best game of an uneven season that has left the Irish coaching staff wanting more.”
So yeah, I’ll take the time to look past the stat sheet and stick with “much better.” Just as all the guys who get paid to do this did. There’s a clear qualitative performance in his play over the last 2+ games. If you want to remain skeptical about him stringing repeated positive performances together I understand that and I won’t argue with it, and as I said I maintain some skepticism myself. But it’s just not accurate to say he didn’t look any different against Duke than he did in the previous eight games.
I was watching on my phone at a large “Friendsgiving” event and was drinking pretty early so I won’t claim to recall how different he looked against Duke. I will however remain extremely skeptical and it will take more than 1 good drive (helped by penalties) a statistically poor game and a REALLY good game against an over matched opponent before I start to get excited again about Book. In the last 3 games he was hurried 8 times and sacked twice. I bet he did get rid of some of those happy feet and pocket jitters. I just don’t think once he gets hit again a few times that they will remain gone.
One additional piece: Josh Lugg has looked really, really solid for a backup coming in and playing tackle. The right side of the offensive line probably isn’t going to get a ton of push with Ruhland playing guard, but I thought they would basically be a sieve once both Kraemer and Hainsey went out, and that has hardly been the case in the least.
I’m still sticking with my take from before the Michigan game: this team, if everyone with eligibility (and I mean everyone, Kmet and Gilman included) comes back, can be a true national title contender next year. That Ian Book is good enough to compete with the big boys.
Agreed…
CB is going to be a big question mark for next year, even if Crawford comes back (love the dude to bits, but not great odds that his sixth season will be his first full one). Safety is a little bit of a question mark, but probably OK. So much returning everywhere else plus we’re adding a couple of elite offensive skill position guys… Could be a big year.
Ha! Now let’s see if we can agree on this (re: your corner depth comment) – Todd Lyght probably should have been encouraged to find another job last year, and absolutely should not be on ND’s staff next year. We’re now seeing the effects of a similar coach with the RB situation, and at some point if you can’t recruit anywhere near a good level, you’re not worth keeping as an assistant.
CB is a natural very tough position for Notre Dame in general to recruit. But with what they have, they almost never give up long pass plays and are 5th in the country at giving up 162 yards/game in the air, 54% completion rate against. Are you just firing him because they only recruit 3 star guys? Seems a bit harsh given on field performance is really high, and has been very strong for the past few years in the post BVG world the pass defense has delivering very strong results.
I think Lyght got a little more cushion than Denson for good reason – he’s a very good coach and he had a couple of decent recruiting cycles, which is one more positive than we can give Denson. He landed Griffith, Boykin, and Brown in 2018 and Rutherford and Wallace in 2019, and the 2017 mess wasn’t entirely on him – Adebo clearly misled the staff repeatedly, something weird happened with Graham, and Hicks was a bit of a flake. I’ve also heard from sources that I very much trust that he didn’t screw up the Clark Phillips recruitment this cycle – the problem was that Phillips had to get his grades in order before the admin would let him visit and he didn’t want to wait, not that Lyght mysteriously stopped talking to him. Of course I wish we had more stars, but I like the 2020 kids we’re getting, particularly Offord and Lewis. We’ll see how they play out.
That said, results are results, and landing two kids who (maybe) will stick at corner in the 2017-19 cycles is pretty rough. I don’t think he’s going to be encouraged to leave, exactly, but I don’t think he’s going to be around past this season. His kid is headed to prep school in California next year and there are strong rumors that the whole family is preparing to move. He’s worked for Chip Kelly before, at Oregon and in Philly, so maybe he’ll reunite with him in UCLA. Or maybe he’ll go into private coaching, where he could make a boatload of cash. But whatever happens, I think we’ll have a new CB coach in 2020.
Both are fair responses, but the counter to that counter is that everyone thought Denson was good at coaching RBs too. The problem with low level recruiting is that it hits you in years 3-5 of when an assistant is hired – so the downside to Lyght is likely to show up next year particularly, unless Crawford comes back/is healthy AND one of Rutherford or Wallace hit (somewhat scarily, one of them is going to have to be the #3 corner unless Griffith moves back or one of the freshmen is a surprise Julian Love type). That seems very unlikely, though there is some hope.
So, to answer hooks’ question: yeah, I think at some point you have to let an assistant coach go if he can’t recruit, even if the on-field results with other coaches’ players are pretty good. If the bad recruiting isn’t his fault, that’s one thing, but there are a lot of misses and a pattern of bad results there, even if most are individually explainable.
Ready? Here it comes… I agree with all that!
Cats lying with dogs! Pandemonium!
Clearly in college football an assistant has two critical roles, as a coach and as a recruiter. I wouldn’t say they’re equally important, because the bottom line is always on-field performance, but the weighting is probably like 55/45 coaching/recruiting. This isn’t the NFL, where the talent gap between teams is generally minimal – if you’re a zero at recruiting, your talent gap is going to be more than your coaching can overcome eventually.
I like Lyght and I think he gets a bit more heat than he deserves, but like Denson, I think both sides would benefit from a fresh start at this point. And I think we’re very likely to get that fresh start this spring.
“ Jokes aside, this is the type of performance that will make people think the Irish are going to blow Navy out for the next 5 years”
Combined score of first half Navy/ND 2018+2019 is 65-3. And it was a pity FG too for Navy! Dare I say Notre Dame will have no problems with Navy as long as Clark Lea is around? Lea again proves to be a tactical wizard, lucky to have him. (Also Kelly now fully knowing how to play Navy, like going for 4th and 1 on the first drive from the 27/28 yard line).
A lot to like in this one. Claypool looked like a man literally playing against boys. Book standing in the pocket and actually throwing downfield is working when he’s willing to hang in there. Hopefully he’s willing to do that vs Stanford + bowl game against higher quality opponent, he has no reason to be fearful!
Good game, definitely worth getting up at 3:30am for
Hey, HCH, I was just thinking of you — while unpacking in my new house (same street in Saint Cloud, just can’t see the Eiffel Tower from my bedroom any more 🙁 I found the brick from our old building (Holy Cross Seminary/Hall) when they tore it down. Anyway, I loved the game, and for once I didn’t have to get up at 3:30 in the morning, here it played out in the evening.
Wish I’d known I could’ve gotten one, hang on to yours. Was Fr. Pat around when you were there?
https://notredame.photoshelter.com/gallery-image/Holy-Cross-Hall-The-University-of-Notre-Dame-Archives/G0000y48WaQ7DJyE/I0000m2cFsHgoaRM/C00000uaQcM04v1o
Not yet. We had eleven (11!) priests on the faculty all really good guys; only Fr Knoll our math teacher, is still around.
I would push for some kind of “A” grade for Tony Jones, because of his pass pro. He was really excellent on blitz pickup and it helped Ian immensely — the extended highlights underline this aspect.
Undoubtedly the stink of the Michigan loss won’t go away, and will (mostly, see below) define this season. And unless they win a Natty next year, will undoubtedly seal BK’s legacy as not able to win the big ones But I personally absolutely loved this game. BK said it exactly right in his opening statement at the post game press conference — a win like that (against a rival who was having a good season to boot), where the team played, fast, loose, and great, is a moment in and of itself worth celebrating.. The team and the coaching made Navy look bad, as opposed to Navy playing badly. Some of that must be credited to BK’s year-long “ready for Navy” plan — to include recruiting walk on QBs who can execute the triple option. Plus I have to say the team’s reaction to Ann Arbor, led by their leaders, has been terrific. Sign me up for young people who say, “work us harder” — and then wind up playing better, and having fun doing it. (I am just sad they had to learn to ignore the negativity from some of our own family, but that’s another topic.)
Finally — if we do beat BC, and Stanford, and do get into a bowl game against a significant tough highly ranked opponent and win it — we will have beaten four rivals that have historically given us lots of trouble ((USC, Navy, BC, and Stanford) — plus breaking the losing in major bowls streak. Which for me anyway would define a season with much goodness to treasure..
Giving Tony Jones an A for that game would be grading on a crazy curve. It is an A/A- kind of game *for him*, maybe, but ultimately it remains a problem for this team that he is (at this point unquestionably) the team’s best running back.
All that said, I definitely hope that he comes back next year; see above re: him being the best RB on the team.
Concur wit you both, but what I was really trying to get at was for this game, when it is critical for us to get Ian back to being comfortable and effective, pass pro was arguably more important than running the football for our running backs. Sad as that is to say, but I think we had to fix Ian’s passing confidence. Now to fix the running game. But if pass pro failures are keeping a better runner off the field, sometimes that may be justified…?
That’s fair, and I think I agree with you.
To your other note above, I was looking at the scenarios and it seems unlikely that there will be enough chaos ahead of us that we get a New Year’s 6 bowl.
For the Orange: We’d need there to be no more than one Big 10 and one SEC team ranked between us and the top 4. (Currently there’s five Big 10 teams, and four SEC teams – assuming Auburn drops – even though some of those will be in the top 4 in the final standings, that’s a lot of teams that have to still drop behind us.)
For the Cotton: We’d need to be the highest ranked team not yet in a NY6. That includes all the teams above, + OU, Baylor, Oregon, and Utah if any remain above us but outside the top 4.
So ESPN’s bowl projection for us seems pretty safe:
Camping World Bowl
Camping World Stadium, Orlando, Florida
Dec. 28, noon, ABC
Bonagura: Notre Dame vs. Iowa State
Schlabach: Notre Dame vs. Oklahoma State
If I understand this right, Camping World Bowl is basically the top bowl outside of the playoffs/NY6 bowls for ND/ACC. So we get that spot. Pretty hard for us to move up to NY6 and as long as we don’t lose we aren’t moving down.
Then it’s against the 3rd place team that’s outside the playoffs for the BIG12. Not sure then if there’s much chance for a better spot. Figure something like 1. Oklahoma to the playoffs, 2. Baylor to the sugar bowl, 3. Ok. state/Iowa st. to Alamo bowl and 4th place team (ISU/OK st.) against us. Not sure if Texas can get a win to move up into that spot. I’d rather play a decent Texas team than Oklahoma state or Iowa state.
One nice thing is the game is played on the day of the playoffs.
I think we’re out for the Orange, as absent a massive upset of FSU over Florida I don’t see how we can get past the Gators. Which is problematic as the Orange will take the highest ranked SEC, Big Ten, or ND team available. We’ll almost certainly be above the highest available Big Ten team, but with the Gators in the way it won’t matter.
However… If (almost) everything else goes to chalk, I think we still have a reasonable chance at the Cotton, possibly depending on how the SEC falls out.
The Pac 12 winner will either be in the playoff or the Rose, and the runner-up will be ranked below us.
The Big 12 champ will either be in the playoff or the Sugar. The runner-up will probably be ranked below us (I’m guessing 2/3 loss Baylor).
The Big Ten champ will be in the playoff and the runner-up will be in the Rose. The third team – two-loss Penn State, Wisconsin, or Minny – will probably be ranked behind us.
The SEC… The winner is clearly in. The runner-up *might* be in too. The next team would go to the Sugar (probably Alabama), the next to the Orange (probably Florida). If the SEC lands one team in the playoff, probably everything falls apart – say LSU kills Georgia, then Alabama goes to the Sugar, Georgia goes to the Orange, and Florida goes to the Cotton. Of course, that assumes that Alabama beats Auburn – although I’m not sure Bama would drop below us if that happened, or that Auburn wouldn’t jump us even with three losses. But who knows.
We could also end up in a second tier game against Texas or something. Wouldn’t be terrible.
Gotta see how it plays out, obviously. Minnesota and Auburn lost, Baylor too; more f-ball left. But note I carefully did not say NY6, but a “major” bowl — which maybe we could define as vs a good team. That people care about playing. Not sure if there could be one of those matchups somewhere.
Under that consideration, does beating LSU in 2017 not count as already breaking the streak?
2017 LSU is probably way better than whoever we would have played in the Orange or the Cotton this year – and whoever we play in the Camping World will probably be better than who we would’ve played in the Orange, too – but I think it’s fair to just count the NY6 as the ‘big’ ones.
Great point Noise about Tony Jones’ pass blocking, he does do very well there. I’m not sure I would give the RB group an A because of it, but that doesn’t really matter. It’s certainly worthy of a lot of praise that Book almost always receives great protection from the line + TJJ picking up blitzers. Which makes Book’s season even more strange, he doesn’t have a lot of reason to be gun shy. He should be fine hanging in the pocket, stepping up and delivering the ball downfield.
I guess it’s easy to say when 250+ pound guys aren’t trying to break me in 2 pieces from behind a keyboard though.
I love TJJ’s success rate, but I’m not sure we can ever give a RB an ‘A’ who averaged 2.9 yds/carry in a game.
Remember this Bettis game? 5 attempts, 1 yd, long run of 1 yd…3 TDs
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/200409120pit.htm#all_player_offense
I dislike that word, ‘rival’, for anyone other than SC and possibly Michigan. I prefer to call them “aggrieved acquaintances”.
Man that was a level of explosiveness I didn’t know this team had. I don’t care that it was against Navy; that’s a fun offensive performance that gives some great hope for next season’s unit.
Jafar could be a good replacement for Finke in the slot next season. His speed and reliable pass catching are top notch, but he struggles with elusiveness and breaking tackles.
I can definitely see it, especially with all the bodies at running back.
It bugs me how much he seeks out contact, but in a bad way. He’ll get the ball on a pass with space to his right and a defender coming from his left. He puts his head down and tries to run over the defender.
I was thinking the same thing the past few weeks. Jafar does not seem to have the best instincts as a back, and he certainly has shown that the physicality of running back contact leads to a lot of injuries for him. I would not mind seeing him try out in the slot — imagine some of Finke’s great catches with an added burst of speed.
If only we could get that type of confidence and performance from Book every week! Stood in the pocket and delivered the ball (deep) down the field. Those deep passes are so important for his success, as it seemed like the defensive blueprint against him was to bring all of the defenders closer to the line to bring pressure and cut off the short passes.