An annual tradition unlike any other – ranking Notre Dame’s top 25 players, and then burying the list when we turn out to be very wrong about many things. If you’ve been following along this week over at Inside the Irish, you’ve seen the slow reveal of the poll results from twelve voters including our 18 Stripes ballot. Below is our ranking, with some explanation, and the group composite ranking in parentheses.
But first, because we’re all about accountability and how hard it is to predict these things, a quick recap of last season’s highlights.
- Te’Von Coney was #25, and 23rd in the group ranks. Talented players making significant leaps are both easy to predict and sometimes hard to see coming. Jerry Tillery (#14), Drue Tranquill (#9), and Julian Love (#8) were also underrated and had mini-breakouts.
- On that note, a number of players were ranked that had little impact or were way too high – CJ Sanders (21 on our ballot) was a non-factor on offense and not great in special teams, Alize Mack (7) was up and down along with the passing game as a whole, Kevin Stepherson (13) took a while to emerge from the doghouse, and Equanimeous St. Brown (5) had a drop-off in production as well.
- Of the top ten, Daelin Hayes (10th) and Nyles Morgan (2nd) were both a bit disappointing in their production and impact. The good news was that they were likely passed up by other defenders having strong years.
- Quenton Nelson was #1, and sometimes you have to give yourself credit for getting even the obvious things right (not every ballot agreed!)
2018 18 Stripes Preseason Top 25 Players
#25 Alize Mack (18)
Our 18S panel was lower than other voters on Mack, with two of our three voters taking Cole Kmet over Mack. This rank may be representative of growing fan frustration that Mack may never live up to his potential. Still, Mack was the third most targeted receiver on the Notre Dame roster in 2017, even if he only produced 19 catches and 166 yards with those 39 targets.
#24 Cole Kmet (15)
Kmet’s ranking above Mack is a bit on potential and some healthy spring practice buzz. From coaches comments it seems like Kmet has emerged at least as option 1b to Mack’s 1a, but it’s also easy to envision a more trusted veteran like Nic Weishar (who is likely the best blocker at the position) stealing time from both
#23 Houston Griffith (NR)
Griffith was the second safety on the 18 Stripes ballot, earning the nod over last season’s starters Jalen Elliott and Nick Coleman. From Brian Kelly’s recent comments, Griffith will be one of three safeties competing for a starting job and seeing a significant early role along with Elliott and Alohi Gillman (late edit: as I write this now, Coleman is apparently having a fantastic start to fall camp and back in the mix). Griffith is a fluid athlete with good cover skills, but it remains to be seen how much trust the coaches will place in him as a true freshman.
#22 Liam Eichenberg (23)
Everything is on the table for a composite top-100 recruit in his first year of real action. It was a bit surprising to see Eichenberg seize the job at left tackle, as many expected Robert Hainsey to slide over from right tackle into the role. He’ll have big shoes to fill following Mike McGlinchey, Ronnie Stanley, and Zack Martin at the position, and a tough task to start the year against Michigan.
#21 Justin Yoon (21)
Yoon’s ranking really comes down to how much you value his role as a kicker, because you know what you’re getting from him. He will almost certainly end this season as the most accurate kicker in program history, with many other volume records (most points, field goals, and more) all within his sights.
#20 Dexter Williams (19)
Despite assumptions Williams will miss at least four games, and maybe be in the doghouse even once he comes back, he was the only running back on our ballot. The senior has acceleration and explosiveness unique to the other backs, but has yet to gain the trust of the staff with his blocking and decision-making.
#19 Tommy Kraemer (22)
Kraemer cut his teeth last year on an excellent line, albeit in a part-time role. A move inside to guard may benefit the Ohio native, who last season was stronger run blocking than in pass protection. The offensive line as a whole has a lot of players with strong pedigrees but limited proven production
#18 Jonathan Bonner (25)
Bonner is an underappreciated piece of the Irish defense. His production numbers are low, but don’t reflect the blocks he’s occupied and work he’s done in the bigger picture of the Irish defense. It won’t get any more glamorous in 2018 as he moves to nose tackle, but Bonner figures to again provide a steady force eating up blocks and snaps with a pretty high floor, even if he may have a lower ceiling than some other interior DL options.
#17 Shaun Crawford (16)
Crawford a top-10 player in the first half of last season, picking off passes and forcing an enormous fumble at Michigan State. Then it felt like he disappeared a bit – which is both bad (the Irish missed his playmaking) and still ok (he wasn’t seen getting burned). Wearing down a bit is explainable for a player coming off two seasons of injury recovery, and Crawford could make a big leap with a full season of the performance we saw early in 2017.
#16 Alohi Gillman (12)
Gillman enters 2018 without “backup QB” like status among the Irish fan base – we’ve heard good things, and he hasn’t had the chance to be blamed for anything on the field, so he’s great! The Navy transfer received high praise last year on the scout team and a solid spring. Gillman should be strong against the run, and anything in the way of pass disruption will be an upgrade over five total pass breakups from the position a year ago.
#15 Myron Tagavailoa-Amosa (NR)
We were the highest ballot turned in for the Hawaiin sophomore, and in hindsight we may be drinking the Kool Aid here if he only plays 30ish snaps a game. MTA went from a late addition to his class to quickly contributing to a good run defense in 2017. He flashed impressive strength and penetration as a true freshman and figures to make significant strides as a sophomore. Is this maybe a bit too high? It may depend on how many snaps he can take from Jerry Tillery, who played a DL high 702 last year. A more even timeshare could benefit both players.
#14 Miles Boykin (9)
Only two wide receivers made our top 25 ballot, reflecting maybe the scars of the passing game struggles of last season. In limited time, Boykin actually led the team last year in yards per catch and yards per target, although those were heavily swayed by the heroic Citrus Bowl touchdown and a long score against Miami (OH). How will Boykin perform as a top target going against opponents top corners?
#13 Robert Hainsey (14)
Hainsey gets the edge over Kraemer and others in part because of continuity he should benefit from at right tackle. In his time splitting snaps as a true freshmen, Hainsey was particularly impressive in pass protection, with room for growth run-blocking. There’s a strong chance Hainsey becomes a rare four-year starter, either staying at RT or at some point moving inside.
#12 Chase Claypool (11)
Claypool over Boykin isn’t the boldest prediction, but it’s a bet many other ballots didn’t make on the player with a higher upside and that had a greater role last season. Consistency and effort are much bigger questions than talent and upside for Claypool, who should be a matchup nightmare.
#11 Troy Pride (13)
Pride may have the most “boom or bust” potential of any player ranked this high besides Brandon Wimbush. He has great size and track star speed, and showed strong growth down the stretch in 2017 that led into passing up Nick Watkins in the spring. Still, Pride is a little less proven as an impact player and will be targeted a good deal as opposing QB’s avoid Julian Love. It’s a big opportunity for him to show out or risk getting picked on frequently.
#10 Julian Okwara (20)
This ranking was one of the highest for Okwara of the other Notre Dame voters, and I think we feel pretty good about it. While it’s not a lock that he’ll see as many snaps as Daelin Hayes or some players he’s ahead of, he seems likely to be Notre Dame’s best edge rusher (if he wasn’t already last season) and on the field most third downs. The big questions are if being Notre Dame’s best edge rusher is a “tallest of the midgets” compliment or if he’s truly a force opponents have to plan for, and how well he can hold up against the run.
#9 Khalid Kareem (10)
Kareem is high on the list of breakout candidates from ND beat writers, and beat out Jay Hayes for the starting strong side end job in the spring. Like Okwara, Kareem was one of the more disruptive players on the defensive line despite not starting. He’s certainly a better pass rusher, and may not offer much (if any) of a drop-off against the run.
#8 Daelin Hayes (8)
2018 finds Hayes in an interesting spot after he was hyped last year as a solution to Notre Dame’s pass rushing woes. As a sophomore he underachieved that lofty expectation, with just three sacks, but also held up far better than anticipated versus the run. Is a post-hype breakout possible? Absolutely, but there’s also a chance Okwara (or even a darkhorse, like Ade Ogundeji) supplants Hayes on passing downs if his pass rush production doesn’t improve. Number eight feels a little high to me.
#7 Brandon Wimbush (6)
Depending on how you view this exercise, Wimbush could be extremely overrated or underrated at number seven. He’s the most critical player to the team’s 2018 success, and arguably the player with the highest ceiling. As a runner Wimbush was a stud – basically Lamar Jackson-lite (Wimbush 8.0 yards per carry, 7.3 highlight yards per opportunity, Jackson 8.7 and 7.7 respectively). Progress in accuracy and making reads unlocks Chip Long’s offense in a new way, while a repeat of last season probably dooms the Irish to 3-4 losses. No pressure!
#6 Alex Bars (7)
No ballots in the top 25 had Bars lower than #10 and no one had him higher than #4, which seems right for a very good player but one that may not be dominant. Bars will be expected to take on a leadership role as a veteran presence on the line. Playing next to Eichenberg, Bars won’t be Quenton Nelson but doesn’t have to be to still be a strength for Notre Dame against opposing defenses.
#5 Sam Mustipher (3)
Everything written about Bars above applies to Mustipher, who edged out his fellow captain both on our ballot and the composite. I think this is coming from a sense that Mustipher was maybe just a bit better last season, and also that he may taking up more responsibility than Bars at center, especially with far less experience around him on the line. Both linemen figure to be good and steady, but perceptions of both could fall off in the line as a whole disappoints.
#4 Drue Tranquill (5)
Tranquill finally found a perfect positional fit last year at rover, so naturally he’ll be changing positions against this fall. Still, there’s little reason to doubt Tranquill, whose fantastic instincts and tackling ability were on full display in 2017. Would it be surprisingly if at the end of the season, he has a strong case for the top spot on this list?
#3 Jerry Tillery (2)
Tillery had a phenomenal bounce-back campaign as a junior, completing a turn-around from a sophomore year where many fans began giving up on a talented but inconsistent player with questions about his mindset. He was a workhorse an noseguard in 2017, playing the most snaps of any player on the defensive line and logging 9 TFL and 4.5 sacks. A move to 3-technique will give him even more chances to be disruptive in 2018.
#2 Julian Love (4)
I was a surprised to see Love not receive any first place votes from other Irish top 25 voters, then absolutely shocked to see two ballots with him outside the top 10. He was a second team All-American last year, and set a school record for passes defensed! As a sophomore! I think Love has the fewest holes in his game of any player on the roster, and is the surest bet to be a top 5 player.
#1 Te’von Coney (1)
Coney took #1 on our ballot and also earned the top spot in the composite list. His production and disruption last year, especially in the run game and rushing the quarterback, were outstanding. He’s a great athlete, instinctive blitzer, and will put up gigantic numbers despite a position change inside to MIKE linebacker. The big question is Coney’s ability to hold up in coverage – he had zero pass deflections in 2017, and will need to improve in that area to elevate the defense and his draft stock.
Where do you think jay Hayes and nick Watkins would have fallen on this list?
It’s hard to answer that because I’m not sure how clear it would be if both were still on the roster where they fell in the pecking order. I think we’d have a relative sense that Kareem was passing Hayes and same with Pride/Watkins, but it wouldn’t be as clear as it became once they left (because coaches would want to encourage competition)…my guess is they would be candidates in the 18-25 range.
Well done – I really like this list, especially that you ranked MTA relatively highly and that you didn’t rank Tony Jones at all (somebody put him #3!). In terms of the quibbles, your analysis on Wimbush is correct, though I would have put him a bit further down given that there is a not-insignificant chance that he is not playing by the middle of October even without an injury, unlike everyone else here.
I think the most important person to overplay his ranking (other than Wimbush) is Eichenberg – if he’s one of the 10-12 best guys on the team, that would be huge.
The Tony Jones at #3 was ludicrous to me. More to come in future posts but I am not selling my Tony Jones stock though… I think we have a tendency to write off veteran guys (especially if they’ve been hyped at some point) that don’t follow a nice linear progression or didn’t immediately step in and shine. I think he was banged up most of last year, and still has solid upside. It wasn’t that long ago that he was 1) being talked about as looking as good as Adams in spring ball and 2) being a much better receiver than any other back last year, which unfortunately didn’t materialize because the short/touch passing game was mostly nonexistent. Some of that was probably overhype, but I think the pendulum has swung way too far the other way.
TJJ seems like he could be a Robert Hughes type. Where would someone slot him in here?
Well now I want to see him run over USC defenders like a bowling ball
Cam McDaniel 2.0. Another guy that the staff loves talking about “doing all the little things right.” Unfortunately, he doesn’t do any of the big things.
In an ideal world, he’d be our 3rd down/passing situation back. But sadly, we live far from an ideal world.
From the FWIW file, Jones’ yards/carry at 5.3 (just 44 carries though) is almost a yard better than McDaniel’s 4.4 (in 255 carriers).
And point taken on the “yeah, yeah behind THAT line though” comeback.
I’m drinking the kool aid that Jones will be healthy and serviceable, though not explosive. Hopefully he’s healthy, it was said he was 230+ after the ankle injury limited his conditioning. Now supposedly he’s 215 and feeling great. Gives a little hope to hold onto, I suppose.
If it truly was a conditioning thing, that would really be fantastic. He just looked so slow to the hole, and I’m worried that’s more of an instincts issue than conditioning. Him proving me wrong would go a loooooong way toward this being a successful season.
Anything said in the spring about anyone is 95% worthless. Jones may be fine, if he’s past the injuries, but how many times are we going to hear the “this guy was great in practice” only for them to not show it in games? It’s not just the coaching staff, either–the press guys hyped Jones up, just like they hyped Mack up before him. Hell, Brandon Wimbush was great in practice, we were all told. The bottom line is that it’s really hard to tell from a short viewing period during a practice what someone is going to do in a game. It’s to the point where if I start to see someone get surprise hype, I mentally write them off as “well, they’ll underwhelm.”
To be clear–this isn’t a problem on the part of the players, necessarily. It’s not Tony Jones’s fault that a year ago Sampson and Prister and whomever else were telling us how wow he was going to be, only for him to be not-wow. And I feel like any media member who hypes up Alize Mack needs to be beaten with a dropped football.
Sure, but it’s not just spring ball… he was a heralded recruit, and more than just lip service he was clearly ahead of Dexter and McIntosh in the pecking order, for various reasons, when we saw both are obviously talented runners. Maybe that’s a mistake too, and if your point is just that real game action should far outweigh anything else I agree with you.
My counter would be that 1) he’s a redshirt sophomore and 2) he’s been judged negatively based on a 44 carries, many of which I think he was seriously banged up for. It just seems wayyy premature to me that I think a lot of fans would rather distribute his carries to someone like Avery Davis or Jafar Armstrong, for the very reasons of spring hype and the lure of the unknown that you mention.
That’s fine. My point is less about Jones himself and more about that every year there’s a “oh watch out for this guy, he’s been great in practice!!” from the press that amounts to little in games. Yes, real game action should outweigh anything, but even more than that, I trust little of what comes out of any practice/camp updates. It’s as if they forget sometimes that practices are controlled environments not necessarily facing the #1 defense (and that’s ignoring the zero sum game–if one side/player dominates the other in a scrimmage, it’s harder to tell if it’s that the one player/side is good or the other is bad).
But don’t worry, Mack will break out this year, I’m sure of it. Also, Brandon Wimbush can actually pass, we promise.
And I agree absolutely re: Davis or Armstrong. We (the reading public) are so hungry for TAEKS that everything gets played up. This isn’t a BK isolated problem either, as it goes back at least as far as Munir “Woosh” Prince in my memory, and probably further (and it’s probably the same at every other program)
Never forget the Studstill hype.
I don’t think Jones was ahead of Dexter and McIntosh based on talent; he was ahead of them because he stayed out of the doghouse.
That’s fair, but he was also rather unimpressive in the spring game when he was allegedly healthier (yes, yes, it’s an exhibition. But he was going against the 1s, and he looked not-good). That said, I could see a case for him being in the 20-25 range right now, especially that he’s a “clear #1” RB so long as Dexter is suspended.
In any case, #3 overall is insane based on all available evidence.
He has a far better chance being the 3rd leading rusher on the team than he does the 3rd best player (BTW, Wimbush would have to be the odds on favorite for that title, right? assuming you remove sack yardage, which you should)
Agreed… if you assume he starts all season. If you discount for the possibility that he may have played his last non-garbage time snap by mid-October, I would give more or less even odds to Jones, Williams, and Wimbush.
Did you guys catch that from BK’s presser it sounds like a magician performed for the team? Doesn’t that seem odd. Hey Hey kids! Whose birthday is it?!
Needs to spend more time making November losses disappear rabble rabble
Really hard to disagree with your placement with most guys on this list. For one underrated player, I’d actually go with Yoon. I know it’s hard to give too much value to a kicker, but with all of the close games that Kelly tends to play in, I think he’s going to win us at least 1 or 2 that 95% of other teams wouldn’t be able to win without him. That, to me, makes him one of the 10-15 most valuable players on the team.
For overrated, definitely Miles Boykin. He’s a slower Alize Mack. He has 18(!!!) career catches. 40% of his career yardage came on 2 plays, one where the defender took out a teammate and one against Miami (OH). If he’s the 1st or 2nd leading receiver by the end of the season, I have to imagine the offense will have had a really poor season.
What? You don’t believe that a player who has done little to nothing in 3 years is going to be a breakout superstar? But didn’t you see his catch against LSU??!?!
I mean, maybe he’ll be fine. But there’s a whole lot more hope there than there is evidence.
Ha yeah, I can’t remember hearing a single person talking about Boykin as the future of the WR position before the LSU catch. Now he’s a top 15 (or even top 10) player on this team? I’ll believe it when I see it.
I think Gillman has to be overrated almost regardless of where you put him. The write up is even kind of self aware. We’re just going on reports that he’s doing good things.
BUT HE HAD 37 SOLO TACKLES AGAINST ND IN 2016!111!ONE!!
In all seriousness, I have good hopes for Gilman, but you’re right, all we know about him is the praise he gets from practice reports. Everyone just sort of assumed he was a starter from the get-go. Of course, perhaps that says more about the bad state of our safeties than it does OMG Gilman.
We sort of talked about it above, but yeah, we have no idea how he’ll be. It wouldn’t be a surprise if he was really good, but also it’s a place where we’re starved for a difference maker.
The whole media hype / practice reports / coach comments is just kind of a no-win situation – you can either choose to believe to some degree, or choose to be skeptical of anything until shown on the field (both are fine). It’s just funny how much it’s shaped by our personal opinions and biases – if it’s a blue chip recruit, if they’ve played before, how good the guy is in front of them, etc. When guys are good in practice and are good on the field it usually goes unnoticed, but if someone gets hyped and it doesn’t translate it’s like they owe us.
The reality is we just don’t know anything until the season starts, but that’s no fun, and the audience is hungry for content, so trying to piece things together at least a little bit is what it seems like most people (if you’re engaged enough to be ready this little site) choose to do.
http://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/24264151/college-football-preseason-player-rankings-ed-oliver-leads-way
No ND players on ESPN’s top 50. I think the list is a bit silly: Tua Tagavailoa is #11, Shea Patterson is #25, etc. But I think it’s not exactly unfair with regard to ND, which is the concern I have with this year’s team: there aren’t really any guys with superstar potential, unless Wimbush improves his completion percentage by ~10%. Coney is darned good, but you don’t want him as the best player on the team. Tranquill is also good, but he shouldn’t be one of the five best players on the team if you want to compete for a national championship.
This team is deep for sure, but I’m not sure it’s electric enough to really be a top-5 (or even top-10) team. Unless Wimbush significantly improves, we’re going to have to win a lot of close games to get there.