Happy Thanksgiving to everyone.
A return as a head coach isn’t supposed to work out very often. Just ask Randy Edsall whose UConn team is sitting out 2020 through the pandemic after going 6-30 in their coach’s second stint at Storrs. That fate hasn’t affected Mack Brown to date who returned to Chapel Hill last season following a 16-year campaign with Texas and has North Carolina sitting in 25th place in the AP Poll and 19th in this week’s debut of the College Football Playoff rankings.
Thanks to an explosive offense that is nearly shooting off fireworks every time they get the ball the Heels are as dangerous as any point this century. However, it’s not all gumdrops and lollipops. North Carolina’s defense has struggled in year two under defensive coordinator Jay Bateman while allowing 73 combined points on the first 15 drives in losses to Florida State and Virginia.
Notre Dame (-5) at UNC
Kenan Memorial Stadium
Chapel Hill, North Carolina
Date: Friday, November 27, 2020
Time: 3:30 PM ET
TV: ABC
Most are expecting a shootout in Chapel Hill and it’ll be fascinating to see if Notre Dame’s defense can slow down North Carolina’s offense and if the Tar Heels defense can do enough to keep their hopes alive in a big ACC showdown. Yes, it feels weird to type that and will never feel normal.
Carolina’s Offense
Carolina took a huge jump in recruiting in 2020 with a collection of 8 players who were 4-stars and 1 player who made 5-star status. But it’s been one of the four players who were 4-stars in the 2019 class that has elevated the Heels under Mack Brown. Quarterback Sam Howell from the southeastern suburbs of Charlotte just snuck inside the Composite Top 100 recruits for 2019 behind quarterbacks Spencer Rattler (Oklahoma), Box Nix (Auburn), Jayden Daniels (Arizona State), Ryan Hilinski (South Carolina), and Graham Mertz (Wisconsin).
Howell heads into Friday with 6,272 passing yards and 61 passing touchdowns in 21 career games and is coming off the 3rd most passing yards (550) in an ACC game while the Tar Heels just racked up a school-record 742 yards in their comeback win over Wake Forest.
Among Power 5 programs who have played at least 5 games this season only Alabama (7.92) is averaging more yards per play than the North Carolina offense (7.70).
That’s an amazing stat because for all their explosiveness, the Carolina offensive line isn’t well regarded. They’ve allowed 6.3 tackles for loss per game (75th nationally) and 2.75 sacks per game (92nd) and are very susceptible to negative plays.
The Heels backfield duo of Javonte Williams and Michael Carter narrowly missed out on both being 1,000-yard rushers last year (Williams fell 67 yards short) but are well on pace to break that mark in 2020. Ahead of the matchup with Notre Dame, the duo is averaging 268.88 yards from scrimmage which is the best for 2 teammates since Reggie Bush and Lendale White averaged 287.61 yards per game in 2005.
Williams has vision, balance, and power.
The junior Williams has grown into the more dangerous weapon while leading the nation with 15 rushing touchdowns. However, it’ll be interesting to see how much Notre Dame can get North Carolina off schedule. A full 1,063 of their yards (56.9%) and 15 of their rushing touchdowns (65.2%) have come in wins over Virginia Tech, North Carolina State, and Duke. In their other 5 games, the Heels are averaging a more mortal 161 rushing yards per game at a 4.23 YPC average.
Carolina doesn’t lack for options at receiver, that’s for sure. Junior Dyami Brown built off his 1,000-yard season in 2019 and is currently 4th nationally with 829 receiving yards. Senior Dazz Newsome also topped 1,000 yards last year and comes into Friday with 455 receiving yards while fellow senior Beau Corrales has been hurt for the past 4 games (he’s cleared to play on Friday) but has 238 yards so far. Additionally, true freshman Khafre Brown has big play potential while averaging 22.75 yards on just 12 catches.
Carolina’s Defense
If North Carolina’s defense was just a little better, or similar to last year’s version, or even didn’t seemingly forget to show up in the first half of 2 games, this could’ve been a massive GameDay-type matchup this weekend.
If you’re averaging 43 points per game you shouldn’t be winning only 75% of your games. The teams averaging at least that many points are currently 47-4 (.921) on the season with those defeats being suffered by Oklahoma (losses to Kansas State and #13 Iowa State), Florida (loss to #5 Texas A&M), and Clemson (loss to #2 Notre Dame).
The Heels haven’t been terrible on defense it’s just they haven’t played anyone with a real pulse in the ACC and that’s trouble when most of your defensive stats are middling within the league.
Fire 1990’s polo shirt.
They did lose 3 defensive backs before the season due to Covid concerns, including starting safety D.J. Ford. The defensive backs in general have been a little banged up this season but are getting a couple guys back against Notre Dame. Last week, Wake Forest quarterback Sam Hartman threw for 429 yards with 4 touchdowns and no interceptions.
The last time Notre Dame faced North Carolina we witnessed redshirt freshman Ian Book making his starting debut for the injured Brandon Wimbush. On that day, the Heels started Chazz Surratt at quarterback. In the time that has passed Book has pushed himself into the fringe of Heisman discussion while Surratt converted to linebacker where he was a first-team All-ACC selection last year.
Over his last 21 games, Surratt has 183 tackles, 21.5 tackles for loss, 11.5 sacks, and 15 hurries. As expected, he can be very susceptible in run and pass coverage for someone without a ton of linebacker experience but he’s been a really neat story to make such a heroic and drastic position switch.
North Carolina will get a boost now that center Jarrett Patterson (foot) and right guard Tommy Kraemer (appendectomy) are both out, stunning what has been one of the nation’s premier offensive lines. In their place, redshirt freshman Zeke Correll (center) and redshirt junior Josh Lugg (right guard) will get the start with this being the first extended playing time for the new Irish center. The Heels should hope they can slow down the Irish run game and create more pressure on Ian Book whose been nearly unflappable in recent weeks.
Prediction
We are on full upset alert this weekend as the spread from Vegas has been cut in half from its opening earlier this week suggests to us all.
Clearly, Notre Dame needed the bye week after a mentally draining couple of weeks in upsetting Clemson and avoiding the upset at Boston College. That rest is off-set a little bit by North Carolina having their own bye too but it was much more needed for the Irish.
Admittedly, I don’t have a good read on this game. However, I keep coming back to a couple things from my prep notes that deserve mention:
1) North Carolina’s Defense Starts & Ends Well, the Middle Well…
You always want to start fast and build a lead in any football game. So far in 2020, the Heels have been able to start fast and finish strong but everything in the middle, especially defensively, has been a hot mess.
On offense, UNC has only been shutout in 2 quarters through 8 games so the pressure is always there for them to score points. On defense, they’ve started well with shutouts in 4 quarters in the first frame while only allowing a combined 76 points in the 1st and 4th quarters.
The middle of their games have been rough, though. North Carolina has allowed 170 points in the 2nd and 3rd quarters and are -25 in point differential in those quarters despite being +124 in the 1st and 4th quarters. Are teams able to adjust to the Heels and then hope that they can hold on in the 4th quarter against their potent offense?
2) The Tar Heels are Basically Oklahoma
The Sooners defense is actually doing a lot better this year and their offense isn’t quite peak Mayfield/Murray efficient under redshirt freshman quarterback Spencer Rattler. So, North Carolina is similar to the traditional modern Sooners except the Heels’ defense in 2020 isn’t as good but their offense is in the neighborhood of some of those explosive Oklahoma attacks of year’s past.
In an era where good offense beats good defense this is a dicey matchup for Notre Dame. On the one hand, North Carolina isn’t really in the national spotlight right now, they have 2 bad losses, and their overall talent level from a recruiting perspective isn’t too scary. Still, if we are looking at potential for Notre Dame to lose, facing a multi-dimensional explosive offense with a good quarterback is a as good of a spot as any to trip up.
So, how well Notre Dame responds to playing the toughest offense, pound-for-pound, it has faced this year is the biggest question this Friday when (aside from Clemson) the schedule has featured some really struggling offenses.
I went back and looked at Brian Kelly’s record against Top 15 scoring offense and surprisingly he’s 5-5 overall, with an impressive 4-1 over the last 5 opportunities. Those recent wins include Clemson this year, Navy last year, Syracuse in 2018, and Arizona State in 2013 with the playoff loss to Clemson in 2018 as the lone defeat.
My brain says to trust Clark Lea, that North Carolina’s big offense without bonafide blue-chip recruits (although this clearly sells Howell & Williams, both who could be top NFL picks, extremely short) probably isn’t going to be quite as scary as their numbers suggest, and we should expect a win when the Heels’ defense isn’t very good. However, I do wonder if facing 2 elite offenses in the past 3 games (when it happens once per year on average) may add stress to Notre Dame’s defense and especially the secondary where a true freshman is starting and could be seriously exposed. There’s also some worthy concern about Kyren Williams and C’Bo Flemister being banged up that could impact the Irish offense.
My gut says Notre Dame plays pretty well but comes up short in a shootout on the road.
I think this game comes down to touchdowns and turnovers. Whichever team scores TDs vs. FGs and doesn’t turn the ball over wins. I am very worried about this game but, I also think ND’s front seven will have a big day, rising to the challenge. ND 42 (6TDs) UNC 30 (3TDs 3FGs).
Ye of little faith. Our havoc-producing defense will disrupt enough drives, even if NC scores TDs on the others. We’re all confident in Book now but hopefully we can move it on the ground, notwithstanding O-line injuries. Really afraid of Kyren fumbling though. I’d rather he didn’t do that so often.
Ian is great about not throwing picks (knock on wood), but he, Kyren, and everyone else need to do a much better job with ball security when carrying it. No stretching for touchdowns or first downs.
I was insufficiently worried about the game until I saw the SP+ prediction, and now this. It may end up coming down to how well the new offensive line gels, because at full strength I’d feel really good about running the ball but now it’s more of a question-mark. On the other side of the ball, I can’t help but remember that we shut down Travis Etienne in the run game. We should be able to do the same to UNC.
So should come down to their passing game and our running game. Whichever one has a better day will probably win.
I don’t think their defense could stop our scout team OL.
I don’t feel comfortable actually calling the upset when there’s no evidence UNC can hang with, let alone beat, a top 5 team. They haven’t even played or beaten a single team that’s currently ranked in the CFP rankings. This game is a huge jump up in difficulty for them.
Also, teams that play a lot of high-scoring, one-score games, like UNC, tend to find their way to .500 one way or another. In that sense, UNC is “overdue” for a couple losses.
I’ll say 45-35 ND.
Agreed. UNC lost to UVA less than a month ago, it’s not like they’re a juggernaut. They’re dangerous because their offense is so good, but Clark Lea has also had 2 weeks to perfect and implement a game plan to a very veteran defense. A good offense will trump a good defense, but I think the ND defense ought to be able to do enough to keep UNC off schedule enough even though they surely will get theirs in terms of yards and some points.
This would also be a great and fun game for one of those 7+ minute opening drives to start a game and punch in a touchdown.
UNC loses to teams that outrush them. It’s that simple. Even with our OL issues, that makes me feel pretty confident.
Their offense is good against crap defenses. They haven’t played anyone nearly as good as ND yet, and they’ve already lost twice.
Right. Even that highlight Eric has, the Wake defender has the tackle lined up for a 1-2 yard gain and whiffs. That’s something that White or JOK can’t/won’t miss a lot of.
I think/guess ND will take away the run, let Howell get his for a 300 yard day, but hopefully still buckle down and keep them out of the end zone. Hoping for like a 34-24 game, or something where UNC scores late to maybe cover but not be able to seriously come close.
Notre Dame will take North Carolina out of their rhythm with its running game and long methodical drives. The defense will disrupt the Tar heels in the first half. The Irish will get the lead and Carolina will get antsy. Then turnovers start…..I’ll just wait until the game is over to make my prediction. Happy Thanksgiving
I think I still recall part of your preview of that 2017 Carolina game and saying something to the effect of “Nd just isn’t in a place as a program to go handle a power 5 team with their backup qb”. The program has come a really long way and it’s been a great run.
I tend to agree tomorrow though, Carolina offense really worries me and the way BC moved the ball is hard to shake. Honestly I am thankful for the game, it gives ND a look at a playoff caliber offense and if Nd can’t handle it tomorrow then we don’t need to see a playoff game against Bama
Seriously, these guys blow and this is a bad matchup for them. If we’re assuming an ND regular season loss, then this is it. But with ND coming off a bye week to get right physically as well as mentally and focus 100% on football, it’s not great for UNC. I think we will punish them in a major way, considerably worse than BC got it.
I usually roll my eyes whenever an opposing fan uses the “they havent played a _____ like ours this year” argument. It’s usually rooted in myopic fan psyche and usually spoken by those who don’t really watch much football outside of their teams games. Though I have been hearing it a lot this week from UNC fans trying to talk themselves into a win today. I wanted to investigate the veracity of that claim.
I took the major advanced metric summaries (F+, FEI, SP+) and compared all of UNC and ND’s opponents to the ranking for their counterpart this weekend. Here is what I found:
F+
FEI
SP+
What these are showing is that according to F+ which combines FEI and SP+, ND has in fact faced two offenses relatively similar to UNCs (Clem and Louisville). The difference is 3 and 17 points, respectively. Duke also has this experience where they faced VaTech with a similarly powerful offense which is only 8 spots behind ND’s. On the defensive side, ND has not only faced defenses AS “good” as UNC, but they have also gone up against 2 that are clearly better (Clem, Pitt). For the Heels, they really have not come close to facing a defense of ND’s caliber. The closest of such is Virginia who comes in 34 spots behind ours.
How dare you bring statistics into the conversation to back up your argument — blasphemy!
yeah i super disagree. I think we’re set up really well to shut down Carter and Williams and get UNC off schedule. They’ll score through some big plays but will be very stop and start. Howell is good, but not mobile and i think it will be hard for them to win if they have to be one dimensional with that defense. I have degrees from ND and UNC so i have watched a lot of both 🙂