I’ve done the math and on average just over 4 teams per season in college football start out in the AP pre-season Top 10 and do not finish inside the Top 10 over the last 5 seasons. I’m going to use these teams as my guide to figure out who will be the overrated teams for the 2023 college football season.

But first, a quick overview of the teams who failed to finish in the top 10 after starting there from 2018-22.

2022

Clemson (11-3) #4 to #13 

Notre Dame (9-4) #5 to #18

Texas A&M (5-7) #6 to NR

Oklahoma (6-7) #9 to NR 

Baylor (6-7) #10 to NR 

Marcus Freeman’s first season saw the Irish start #5 in the country, which with hindsight seems hilariously too high. At least the program salvaged finishing the year ranked.

Clemson winning 10+ games and not finishing in the top 10 is special. Only a couple others have achieved this on our list today.

Texas A&M being wildly overrated in the 2022 pre-season was so obvious and they finished the worst in FEI (44th) out of this group from last year.

Oklahoma went through a lot of change last off-season so their struggles weren’t incredibly surprising, although their defense being so bad wasn’t a great look for head coach Brent Venables.

Baylor made my “stay away” team from last year’s pre-season top 20 article. In their defense, they did suffer a lot of close losses.

2021

Clemson (10-3) #3 to #14 

Texas A&M (8-4) #6 to NR 

Iowa State (7-6) #7 to NR 

North Carolina (6-7) #10 to NR 

Clemson have won 10+ games in each of the last 2 seasons and not finished inside the top 10 in either year, ouch!

We didn’t learn our lesson about A&M in 2022 after they started 6th and then unranked for 2021. Although, they had to cancel their bowl game due to a Covid outbreak and they did beat Alabama this year.

I imagine there haven’t been many seasons at all featuring Iowa State in the pre-season top 10. They suffered a bunch of close losses and were still FEI darlings finishing 11th in their rankings despite not being ranked in the AP by the end of the year.

The Tar Heels started 10th in 2021 and lost to Virginia Tech and Georgia Tech within their first 4 games. Their FEI ranking of 59th is 3rd worse of all the team featured today.

2020

LSU (5-5) #6 to NR 

Penn State (4-5) #7 to NR 

Florida (8-4) #8 to #13 

Oregon (4-3) #9 to NR 

This Covid season brought us plenty of weirdness. LSU was coming off their historic 2019 National Championship and fell directly on their face, chipped their teeth, and left a few scars on their head. Their 72nd ranking in FEI is the worst of all the teams featured today.

Not to be outdone, Penn State lost their first 5 games and had the 2nd worse FEI ranking (63rd) from these teams. But, they beat Michigan!

Florida was pretty solid in 2020 with the Kyle Trask-led offense starting 8-1 before falling apart at the end of the year.

You don’t get more weird seasons than Oregon in 2020. They started 3-0, made the Pac-12 Championship Game because Washington had a Covid outbreak, beat USC in said game, then got whooped in the Fiesta Bowl by Iowa State to then finish unranked.

2019

Michigan (9-4) #7 to #18 

Notre Dame (11-2) #9 to #12 

Texas (8-5) #10 to #25 

Of course, *that* loss to Michigan forever changed the trajectory of this season for Notre Dame. Otherwise, it was a pretty fun year that only included the close home loss to Georgia. However, the schedule just wasn’t strong enough to keep a top 10 finish. Finishing with 2 losses (and no ties) and not making the AP top 10 at the end of the year has only happened to Notre Dame two other times: Elmer Layden’s 1939 team that lost 2 out of its last 3 to Iowa and USC, plus Ara Parseghian’s 1971 team that lost decisively to USC and LSU.

Michigan wasn’t even that good and probably would’ve fell out of the top 25 if they hadn’t beat the Irish.

Texas wasn’t back in 2019 (after Sam Ehlinger announced they were back in a win over Georgia in the previous year’s Sugar Bowl) but they were a respected 5-loss team who wrecked Utah in the Alamo Bowl.

2018

Wisconsin (8-5) #4 to NR 

Washington (10-4) #6 to #13 

Miami (7-6) #8 to NR 

Auburn (8-5) #9 to NR 

Penn State (9-4) #10 to #17 

Another season where half the teams couldn’t finish in the top 10. Poor Auburn, they lost 5 times but were a quality team who beat no. 13 Washington and no. 16 Texas A&M. Their FEI finish of 12th was tied for the 2nd best of all the teams discussed today.

This was the Wisconsin season where Alex Hornibrook wasn’t cutting it and Jack Coan stepped in for some playing time. That Badgers team ripped Miami to shreds 35-3 in this season’s Pinstripe Bowl. That was the last game for Mark Richt with the Hurricanes.

2018 was the year Washington had a fearsome defense but finally figured out that quarterback Jake Browning wasn’t going to help them much on offense. This Penn State team didn’t really do anything notable all year except a 1-point loss to no. 3 Ohio State.

The Overrated 2023 Teams

This year is tough to predict. Looking at the AP Poll I feel like everyone just outside the top 1o (#11 Texas, #12 Tennessee, #13 Notre Dame, #14 Utah, #15 Oregon) could make a strong case for beginning and ending the year much higher.

But who will drop out of the top 10?

Is this the year one of the blue-bloods near the top sink towards mediocrity? The 18 Stripes Pre-Season Top 20 is coming soon and I didn’t drop any of these teams that far in the post-season predictions, so I can’t really make the case today can I?

I’ll put the vibe out there that it could be Ohio State or Alabama, though. They are being monitored awfully closely for a little drop.

My picks in increasingly more likely to finish outside the top 10 (or worse!):

#6 USC – It’s not fair to play the injury card but even a banged up Caleb Williams will make it difficult for the Trojans to hold on to a spot this high.

#8 Florida State – I’m not sure we know that Florida State is really that good.

#9 Clemson – As we’ve seen above, this program has been a bit shaky lately and not up to top 10 standards in the recent past.

#10 Washington – This is going to be a tough year in the Pac-12 (one last time!) and it’s completely fair to think the 10th team in the pre-season poll probably won’t live up to expectations.

#7 Penn State – The Nittany Lions seem like the biggest paper tiger, by far, among the top 10. I would describe them as a solid program right now but missing the ingredients to remain this high throughout 2023. They will need to hope the quarterback situation works out and they have the offensive firepower to keep pace with the best teams in the country. However, their schedule isn’t particularly difficult. This could be a 10-2 team that finishes 13th in AP.