I’ve done the math and on average just over 4 teams per season in college football start out in the AP pre-season Top 10 and do not finish inside the Top 10 over the last 5 seasons. I’m going to use these teams as my guide to figure out who will be the overrated teams for the 2023 college football season.
But first, a quick overview of the teams who failed to finish in the top 10 after starting there from 2018-22.
2022
Clemson (11-3) #4 to #13
Notre Dame (9-4) #5 to #18
Texas A&M (5-7) #6 to NR
Oklahoma (6-7) #9 to NR
Baylor (6-7) #10 to NR
Marcus Freeman’s first season saw the Irish start #5 in the country, which with hindsight seems hilariously too high. At least the program salvaged finishing the year ranked.
Clemson winning 10+ games and not finishing in the top 10 is special. Only a couple others have achieved this on our list today.
Texas A&M being wildly overrated in the 2022 pre-season was so obvious and they finished the worst in FEI (44th) out of this group from last year.
Oklahoma went through a lot of change last off-season so their struggles weren’t incredibly surprising, although their defense being so bad wasn’t a great look for head coach Brent Venables.
Baylor made my “stay away” team from last year’s pre-season top 20 article. In their defense, they did suffer a lot of close losses.
2021
Clemson (10-3) #3 to #14
Texas A&M (8-4) #6 to NR
Iowa State (7-6) #7 to NR
North Carolina (6-7) #10 to NR
Clemson have won 10+ games in each of the last 2 seasons and not finished inside the top 10 in either year, ouch!
We didn’t learn our lesson about A&M in 2022 after they started 6th and then unranked for 2021. Although, they had to cancel their bowl game due to a Covid outbreak and they did beat Alabama this year.
I imagine there haven’t been many seasons at all featuring Iowa State in the pre-season top 10. They suffered a bunch of close losses and were still FEI darlings finishing 11th in their rankings despite not being ranked in the AP by the end of the year.
The Tar Heels started 10th in 2021 and lost to Virginia Tech and Georgia Tech within their first 4 games. Their FEI ranking of 59th is 3rd worse of all the team featured today.
2020
LSU (5-5) #6 to NR
Penn State (4-5) #7 to NR
Florida (8-4) #8 to #13
Oregon (4-3) #9 to NR
This Covid season brought us plenty of weirdness. LSU was coming off their historic 2019 National Championship and fell directly on their face, chipped their teeth, and left a few scars on their head. Their 72nd ranking in FEI is the worst of all the teams featured today.
Not to be outdone, Penn State lost their first 5 games and had the 2nd worse FEI ranking (63rd) from these teams. But, they beat Michigan!
Florida was pretty solid in 2020 with the Kyle Trask-led offense starting 8-1 before falling apart at the end of the year.
You don’t get more weird seasons than Oregon in 2020. They started 3-0, made the Pac-12 Championship Game because Washington had a Covid outbreak, beat USC in said game, then got whooped in the Fiesta Bowl by Iowa State to then finish unranked.
2019
Michigan (9-4) #7 to #18
Notre Dame (11-2) #9 to #12
Texas (8-5) #10 to #25
Of course, *that* loss to Michigan forever changed the trajectory of this season for Notre Dame. Otherwise, it was a pretty fun year that only included the close home loss to Georgia. However, the schedule just wasn’t strong enough to keep a top 10 finish. Finishing with 2 losses (and no ties) and not making the AP top 10 at the end of the year has only happened to Notre Dame two other times: Elmer Layden’s 1939 team that lost 2 out of its last 3 to Iowa and USC, plus Ara Parseghian’s 1971 team that lost decisively to USC and LSU.
Michigan wasn’t even that good and probably would’ve fell out of the top 25 if they hadn’t beat the Irish.
Texas wasn’t back in 2019 (after Sam Ehlinger announced they were back in a win over Georgia in the previous year’s Sugar Bowl) but they were a respected 5-loss team who wrecked Utah in the Alamo Bowl.
2018
Wisconsin (8-5) #4 to NR
Washington (10-4) #6 to #13
Miami (7-6) #8 to NR
Auburn (8-5) #9 to NR
Penn State (9-4) #10 to #17
Another season where half the teams couldn’t finish in the top 10. Poor Auburn, they lost 5 times but were a quality team who beat no. 13 Washington and no. 16 Texas A&M. Their FEI finish of 12th was tied for the 2nd best of all the teams discussed today.
This was the Wisconsin season where Alex Hornibrook wasn’t cutting it and Jack Coan stepped in for some playing time. That Badgers team ripped Miami to shreds 35-3 in this season’s Pinstripe Bowl. That was the last game for Mark Richt with the Hurricanes.
2018 was the year Washington had a fearsome defense but finally figured out that quarterback Jake Browning wasn’t going to help them much on offense. This Penn State team didn’t really do anything notable all year except a 1-point loss to no. 3 Ohio State.
The Overrated 2023 Teams
This year is tough to predict. Looking at the AP Poll I feel like everyone just outside the top 1o (#11 Texas, #12 Tennessee, #13 Notre Dame, #14 Utah, #15 Oregon) could make a strong case for beginning and ending the year much higher.
Preseason @AP_Top25:
1 Georgia
2 Michigan
3 Ohio St
4 Alabama
5 LSU
6 USC
7 Penn St
8 Florida St
9 Clemson
10 Washington
11 Texas
12 Tennessee
13 Notre Dame
14 Utah
15 Oregon
16 Kansas St
17 TCU
18 Oregon St
19 Wisconsin
20 OU
21 UNC
22 Ole Miss
23 Texas A&M
24 Tulane
25 Iowa— Brett McMurphy (@Brett_McMurphy) August 14, 2023
But who will drop out of the top 10?
Is this the year one of the blue-bloods near the top sink towards mediocrity? The 18 Stripes Pre-Season Top 20 is coming soon and I didn’t drop any of these teams that far in the post-season predictions, so I can’t really make the case today can I?
I’ll put the vibe out there that it could be Ohio State or Alabama, though. They are being monitored awfully closely for a little drop.
My picks in increasingly more likely to finish outside the top 10 (or worse!):
#6 USC – It’s not fair to play the injury card but even a banged up Caleb Williams will make it difficult for the Trojans to hold on to a spot this high.
#8 Florida State – I’m not sure we know that Florida State is really that good.
#9 Clemson – As we’ve seen above, this program has been a bit shaky lately and not up to top 10 standards in the recent past.
#10 Washington – This is going to be a tough year in the Pac-12 (one last time!) and it’s completely fair to think the 10th team in the pre-season poll probably won’t live up to expectations.
#7 Penn State – The Nittany Lions seem like the biggest paper tiger, by far, among the top 10. I would describe them as a solid program right now but missing the ingredients to remain this high throughout 2023. They will need to hope the quarterback situation works out and they have the offensive firepower to keep pace with the best teams in the country. However, their schedule isn’t particularly difficult. This could be a 10-2 team that finishes 13th in AP.
Dear Lord,
I humbly ask for michigan to please appear on this list
Michigan could be very average and we wouldn’t know it because they don’t play a single opponent worth a damn until mid-November. And frankly I still think it’s a little generous to call Penn State good, their best accomplishment last year was hanging with Ohio State – we did that too, and in Columbus with Tyler Buchner and pre-Ben Morrison breakout to boot.
They also don’t play Illinois this year. The B1G officials really worked their magic in the game last year to make sure Michigan pulled off the upset.
Michigan should start at like #15 in the CFP rankings if they’re undefeated. They’re basically taking all of September off and playing a 9-game season like it’s 1965.
A lot of new QBs in the top 5!
Yeah, if I were to take a big swing I might go with Ohio State here. Could lose to Michigan, ND, Penn State and/or do one of their Meyer-era faceplants to an unranked team.
My hot take is both Ryan Day and Jim Harbaugh leave after this season.
That is hot
If Day leaves and ND has the type of season we’re all hoping for, we’re looking at head coach Al Golden for 2024.
I hope there would be no way for Golden to be the head coach if Freeman went to OSU.
I wouldn’t be surprised if Golden moved on even after a really good season. He doesn’t seem to have been a very good recruiter so far and Freeman can’t afford to have a “meh” recruiter at DC.
What do people think of the chances of Freeman heading to OSU if the job opened up in the next couple of seasons? Who else might be in line for that job? Fickell, Hartline (if Day stayed a few more seasons)? Fickell would probably be happy to upgrade to OSU from Wisc. Not sure Freeman would necessarily want to leave though (though it wouldn’t surprise me if he did) – at least if he was convinced he had a real shot at winning a NC at ND.
Tangential to this: is it possible our assistant coaching staff kinda is bad? If things go off the rails this year, we’re going to look back and be like “wtf were we thinking being excited about a team whose coordinators were Al Golden and Jared Parker?”
And, come on, Freeman absolutely would take the OSU job if it opened up in the next few years. It’s a better job and it’s his alma mater. Let’s not delude ourselves.
I don’t have much of a problem with Golden. He’s a bit more aggressive than I’d like, but let’s give him two seasons with the defense before we decide he sucks. Last year’s defense was pretty clutch when it mattered, especially playing opposite a very, very ugly offense.
Parker, I dunno. We’ll see, but I think Freeman should take another run at an experienced OC as soon as he can.
I am not sure Freeman would leave for OSU. He’s an intense and unusual dude. I think he might actually like it better here.
Oh, for sure worthy of giving these coordinators a chance. It’s just, stepping back, how many top 15 programs would trade one of their coordinators for either of them? Probably zero. Our star assistants are the RB coach and the CB coach, rather than the coordinators. It’s just a little odd.
But, maybe Freeman is totally right and he has been sitting on a gem with Parker this whole time, idk. If we don’t have a top-15 offense this year (assuming Hartman is healthy), though, I think we’ll know we have a problem there.
I’m not sure the D was clutch when it mattered. They had the worst red zone TD % in the country. And let up very un-clutch scores to OSU and USC. They had a couple great games, and a bunch of good ones, but clutch is probably the last compliment I would give them.
I would say Stuckey is getting pretty close to a star assistant. Definitely depends on the on-field performance this year. If we get 2 guys over 1,000 yds or like 3k+ from the WRs as a whole, definite star. If we get 1 over 1k and another in the 800+ range, another step towards star. As long as it’s not a flop, I’d say he’s still heading in that direction.
I wouldn’t give Stuckey star status yet – he’s never coached a year in college football where his position group played well, for one thing.
I think he has potential and appears to have done a good job identifying 4-star recruits this year, but I have a sneaking suspicion that we may end up a little underwhelmed with the WR play this year too.
To be clear, that is mostly Del Alexander’s fault/he is working with subpar ingredients and is in the process of fixing that, but we may be two years away from being able to declare him a good coach, much less a star.
Fair, about Freeman.
Yea, not super excited about Parker/Golden but I always find it hard to know for the most part whether coordinators really are any good or not.
Parker hasn’t been recruiting as the OC long enough to know whether he’s a +recruiter or not. Golden has been and it hasn’t been great.
I guess the question for OSU is whether they’d prefer Freeman or Fickell. At this point, if I’m them, Fickell is probably 1A to Freeman’s 1B, no? Though of course things could change in a couple of years (including Hartline really being in line to take over if Day heads to the NFL).
Yeah I think it’s entirely dependent on the circumstances. If it’s in three years and it’s Day going pro because his teams have been awesome, which would imply his offenses have been awesome, presumably Hartline is well-positioned. If it’s next year because he goes 9-3 and loses to Michigan again, it’s either Fickell or Vrabel as the first calls.
Right, though do you really think Vrabel would leave the NFL for OSU?
They’d have to call him. But the man once said he’d cut off his d*** to win a super bowl, so I doubt he’d leave the NFL. And it doesn’t seem that he’s a total misfit in the NFL like Harbaugh was.
We’d hire Tommy back in a heartbeat and you know it. Swarbrick would “advise” Bevacqua on the hire.
I just threw up
Ha, I think they’d certainly try. I actually don’t think Tommy would want to come back (not saying ever, but right now). He was never super popular as a player or coach because the prevailing thought was always something to the effect of “why can’t we do better than this? There has to be someone better.” when in reality he always did pretty well to maximize his potential (more so as a player). I think he might like to stay away for a while.
Of course the going rate for head coaches at big programs probably means I’m wrong, ha
Harbaugh is such a weirdo. He’s at his ostensible dream job, but he interviews seriously with NFL jobs every year, but doesn’t take them. What the hell?
Also his NCAA thing — it was just a cheeseburger but now it’s not? What the heck is going on there?
Anyways looking forward to watching him shut out Western Carolina and Hawaii State.
If I lived in Michigan I’d try to leave every winter too.
Is it that he doesn’t take them or they don’t take him?
I am pretty sure that this last round was the latter.
When he left the NFL, all the rumors were that they were pretty glad to see him go, even given his success.
Yup, big topic for the upcoming pre-season 18S poll.
Bold.
It’s always difficult to assess team records in a conference as deep as the Pac12 unlike the BIG, ACC or SEC, especially when one division is weak. One has to applaud Murtaugh to make such predictions.
According to ESPN’s annual ranking, Washington’s returning production is almost 75% on both offense and defense. Pff position evals has USC littered among their top tens based on talent ratings and returning production. Washington grades out as having the sixth best QB in the country with Penix and the third best WR unit with “the best wide receiver duo in college football outside of Ohio State”.
That doesn’t mean they will survive a schedule that includes USC, Utah, Oregon and Oregon State, which has the third best Oline in the nation (to Michigan and Georgia). In that regard, USC has ND, Utah, Oregon, Washington and UCLA.
Oregon State (18th) has only Utah as top 25 opponent until a November that includes Washington and Oregon. If USC (6) and Washington (10) drop out of the top ten, does that mean Utah (14), Oregon (15), and Oregon State (18) ascend?
That doesn’t account for conference upsets. Should be a dogfight.
On second thought…not so Bold.
With so many quality teams in the Pac, USC and Washington (at 10) may be gimmes to fall out of the Top Ten. Preseason rankings are mostly based on assessment of quality and post-season are generally records with resistance to ranking a team with one more loss over another.
The other wildcard… The Transfer QB Era is Accelerating: Over 62% of projected Power 5 starters are transfers
I think LSU underachieves despite a flaccid SEC West schedule and against a Florida State offense.
After getting a great year out of a healthy Jaden Daniels, Kelly is due for a regression to qb weirdness.
So, pondering the QB regression thing. If Daniels does not regress, how do we explain ND’s QB experience? OCs came and went, QBs declined.
Were we really just missing the southern (faked) accent? Is that the secret?
Parker is double Kentucky (HS & UK) but that seems a little far north for a good QB-inspiring drawl.
Asute. For QB recruiting/transfers we may need to consider their accent, too.
As far as OCs and QBs but a bit off the subject, I hear there’s an annual Tommy Rees run/jump race on May 2nd. Three shots before starting.
In 9 seasons as a head coach, at some of the most resource-rich programs in the country, Sarkisian has never won 10 games. I’ll take Texas for most overrated.
also lol north carolina
Yeah agreed on Sark. Might be the greatest coattail guy of all time. Parlayed the uber talented USC teams into the Washington HC job. Then doubled down on the USC connection by getting that HC job after being meh as a HC at Washington. Gets fired, goes to the Saban school of failed HC’s and does just kind of with the Falcons then goes back to Saban and is the OC of maybe Saban’s most talented WR group and parlays that into the Texas job.
Excited to see what he does next after being fired from Texas.
Somewhere in Arizona
It’s the last stop on his southern return journey from DC.
After UA, he will probably be the USC AD…it is the last USC position he can fail up into.
Dillingham is a hometown boy/alum at ASU so probably UA.