We are working our way through the 2022 Notre Dame roster as we look forward to the first spring practice under new head coach Marcus Freeman. This series kicked off with a look at the offensive line and the return of assistant Harry Hiestand. Today, we’ll tackle Freeman’s position of expertise.
Predicted 2022 Lineup
*Official 2022 roster size
1ST-TEAM
WILL Marist Liufau, r-JR, 6-2 1/4, 229*
MIKE JD Bertrand, r-JR, 6-1, 230*
ROVER Jack Kiser, r-JR, 6-1 5/8, 222*
2ND-TEAM
WILL Prince Kollie, SO, 6-0 1/2, 222*
MIKE Bo Bauer, 5th SR, 6-2 3/4, 233*
ROVER Jaylen Sneed, FR, 6-1 1/8, 198*
Reserves:
WILL Josh Burnham, FR, 6-4, 214*
MIKE Osita Ekwonu, r-JR, 6-0 3/4, 236*
MIKE Junior Tuihalamaka, FR, 6-2, 229*
ROVER Nolan Ziegler, FR, 6-3, 205*
3 Questions
1) Will a position switch for Bertrand actually happen and if so will he hold off everyone else for starting reps at Mike linebacker?
One of the worst things a player can do is finish the season playing poorly, no matter what they did before in their career. So it was for JD Bertrand who came out with his hair on fire and slowly faded into the background as a playmaker in 2021. He didn’t notch 10 tackles in a game over the final 7 contests while only 2 out of his 7 tackles for loss came over that final stretch last fall.
Still, lost in the downturn was Bertrand leading the team in tackles by a massive margin, nearly doubling (101 tackles) the 2nd-place finisher Drew White (55 tackles). Now, some of that is Bertrand playing a lot more than every other linebacker which many would agree was kind of a problem last year.
It’s expected he’ll move to Mike linebacker where Bertrand should be a lot more comfortable. He’s a contrast between a thumper and someone with decent quickness but not quite what Notre Dame is looking for at the Will spot. In contrast, Bo Bauer is someone who seemingly is getting better with more playing time and could offer stiff competition with Bertrand. Let’s hope it leads to a healthier and more importantly fresher Bertrand over the course of the season.
2) How much does the return of a healthy Marist Liufau raise the ceiling of this unit?
Marist Liufau is like one of those young running backs who rips off a few nice runs early in his career and everyone starts to get very excited about his prospects. By most accounts, Liufau was going to start at Will last year and was expected to be a huge part of the defense. Still, we’re talking about a guy who played a decent but not overwhelming amount as a redshirt freshman and has 22 tackles and 1.5 tackles for loss in his career.
Most of us are banking on Liufau being an instant-impact player upon his return from injury in 2022. If last year’s pre-season was any indication Marcus Freeman had a lot of belief in the Hawaiian’s abilities but we’ll need to see some real playmaking this off-season to feel good about the linebackers as a whole getting better.
3) Are young and highly-touted Prince Kollie and Jaylen Sneed ready to be integral parts of the defense?
Once upon a time, the linebacker room was stuffed with bodies. Not so much anymore as even with Osita Ekwonu moving back to this position (according to the updated 2022 spring roster) we’re projecting young blue-chips such as Kollie and Sneed to be immediately slotted into backup roles. That’s what happens when Drew White, Shayne Simon, Isaiah Pryor, and Paul Moala are no longer on the team.
Kollie burned a year of eligibility in 2021 without playing a ton on defense as he picked up a lot of work from special teams. He ended up with 6 solo tackles from 14 tackles overall. This will be a crucial set of spring practices to get Kollie ready for a much larger role.
Sneed is a curious case if only because he comes to campus officially under 200 pounds. We expected something pretty light even for modern linebacker standards but he’s the size of a safety right now. Maybe that’s even a good thing and an advantage for Sneed? There’s renewed talk that Freeman may want to play more 3-safety sets and here you have perhaps the most athletically gifted defender on the team ready to fill that role as an officially listed linebacker.
Overview
I get the sense many believe that the linebackers are going to improve across the board in 2022. My snap judgement is that I would likely agree with that sentiment.
When we look back years down the road I am sure that Drew White will become a more appreciated and perhaps underrated player during his time at Notre Dame. His overall stats were pretty good but he did really struggle playing through injuries and his final year in South Bend was a bit of a disappointment.
We can hope Bertrand moving over to Mike will give the team, at the very worst, Drew White-type production with Bo Bauer offering another co-starter type of talent.
Liufau should be a big upgrade in terms of havoc rate where something like 12 tackles for loss and 10 hurries has to be on the table as expectations for him alone. Clark Lea used Liufau a ton on blitzes and based on the scheme last year, he’ll be put in position to do the same a lot in 2022, too. Whether he and Kollie can handle the full duties of the position and become all-around performers is a bigger question.
The Rover position actually did okay last year after some struggles living up to the incredible player that was Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah. As mentioned, Pryor moves on but Jack Kiser made some big plays in the passing game (2 INT and 5 PBU) although he wasn’t much of a factor in the backfield with just 1 tackle for loss coming up against the inept Stanford offense in the final game of the regular season.
Hopefully, Kiser gets more comfortable in his role and is aided by the super-athletic Sneed in tow. Kiser is a perfect type of intelligent player in a veteran role who can mentor Sneed and get him up to speed as soon as possible.
I’m surprised that Moala moved on, I thought that he might be ready to take some Rover snaps until Sneed is ready.
I thought that Bertrand was good last year, but man did he seem to look worn down as the season progressed…I can’t believe that they didn’t have anyone else to take some Will snaps to give him more plays off. I thought they could have used Kiser at Will to give Bertrand some breaks.
PFF had Bertrand graded out as one of our worst defenders – by a long-shot.
Was he the worst or no? Confused by “one of our worst” and “by a long shot!”
Well I wrote it quickly without double-checking what the exact stats were and I meant that he is not the worst player but that there was a big difference between him and others ahead of him.
After double-checking let me be clearer and more accurate: he was the 2nd worst graded player (among those who played a decent amount of snaps) and the next “worst” LB is significantly ahead of him (a 68.2 grade) compared to Bertrand’s 58.3 grade. Justin Ademilola (58.2) was slightly worse than Bertrand and Bracy (61.3) and Lewis (62.7) are slightly ahead of him with Bauer the next worst defender.
So he was among the worst defenders (2nd worst) and there was a big difference between him and next worst LB but there was a bad cohort that also included Justin A, Bracy and Lewis. And for context that puts Betrand as 19th on defense with those who played at least 287 snaps.
Interesting stuff. Griffith was graded higher than all those players?
Griffith was 9th on defense at 71.5.
This is how I know PFF’s grades are, ehh, unreliable.
Yeah, gotta throw a flag on some of them. I also kinda wonder without them telling everyone that Cain Madden was an All-American if Cain Madden would have been an All-American and gotten to transfer to ND because of it…Individual OL grades are more challenging, so a bit of slack, but I take PFF with a pretty big grain of salt.
Yeah, PFF is better at marketing themselves than grading players.
I take it that PFF’s grades of course should be taken with a grain of salt – like anyone’s opinion/take on a player. What’s helpful is more in the details then simply one final number (they give a lot of additional details). And I think any of those details need to be taken in the context of what the player is being asked to do, scheme, etc.
Even they admit this in the way they do draft rankings. It’s not simply, “gee this guy had a higher grade, and so is a better player.” I take it the grade has to do more with making (or not) certain kind of plays and doing (as best they can tell) the kind of thing they should do on a play. Hamilton didn’t have the 5th best grade in the country for draft eligible players but they rate him very high (I don’t know if it’s 5th but it’s around there) as a draft prospect taking into account his natural ability too.
I have no way of knowing whether their grades are “accurate” but it’s a piece of information that is helpful to weigh against what we all think we are seeing. The more the contrast the more maybe I’d hesitate about my own initial judgments. Hopefully someone else gets in the business of grading players and then one could compare various grades. But in the meantime it’s better than nothing and better than just what seemed to me to be the case watching the game once.
Maybe an example I can give for Bertrand is missed tackles. He was counted with 19 missed tackles on the season and so a 16.1% missed tackle percentage. That percentage was not the worst but the raw number was the worst. The next number of missed tackles was 8 by Drew White (11% missed tackles) and MTA (23.5% missed tackles)
Griffith on the other hand had 3 missed tackles with only a 7% missed tackle percentage. His tackling grade was among the best on the team. So he was actually pretty good in run defense but not very good in pass defense.
Or to look at another stat Bertrand allowed receptions on 88% of the balls thrown to the guy he was covering – targeted 43 times with 38 completions. Not the worst percentage but by far the most (raw total) outside of the DBs. Griffith (again he was bad in coverage) gave up 10 completions on 10(!) targets for 100% allowed receptions. But 10 targets is relatively on the low end.
Another detail: Drew White had an 80% allowed receptions 12 out of 15, but those receptions went for an average of only 4 yards per reception and so he graded out really well in coverage despite the high 80% allowed receptions.
(And I would take it that just because White actually had the highest coverage grade on the team *doesn’t* mean PFF thinks you should put that guy on the other team’s best WR or something like that. Again context, scheme, etc. are necessary.)
So the point is there’d be a lot to dive into exactly what those grades are. It’s not clear to me how exactly all that (on defense they give separate grades for 4 things + an overall grade: run defense, tackling, pass rush, and coverage) averages out to the one final number.
That’s good stuff.
I’m sure their grading is based off some national averages or something to that effect. But, raw missed tackles and not being great in coverage is something I’d expect from the Mike and Will linebackers because we are expecting them to do so much–and at times it’s a lot for guys like Bertrand and White who aren’t big, physical freaks.
But, both did make a lot of plays too. So, I try to balance both things I guess.
Yea could be. I think it also matter how many snaps you play whether run, coverage, rush, etc. So Foskey who is really bad in coverage but only had 70 snaps in coverage, that isn’t weighted as much as Bertrand who had 354 snaps in coverage.
Coverage grades among Linebackers only (with at least 100 snaps in coverage):
White was tied for 2nd nationally with Dean from Georgia.
Kiser was 26th nationally. Pryor 59th. Bauer 101st.
Bertrand 319th.
Interesting, thanks for the info. I do find value in PFF, just always interesting what kind of blind spots a model might have (i.e. a safety who doesn’t get involved but doesn’t make a lot of tackles grading out over a LB who tackles a lot but also misses more).
What kind of blind spot does that show exactly? What data do you think they wouldn’t be account for?
(I didn’t mean to give a comprehensive comparison btw.)
Doesn’t that just show that someone like Griffith was solid but unspectacular (playing a lot less snaps). One would likely imagine Griffith was “protected” more by the scheme then too – not being asked to do a lot and not being put in compromising situations.
Whereas the role Bertrand was asked to do was not filled well by him.
I mean making a bunch of tackles doesn’t mean much about how good you are except, at least, that you are put in a position to do so. I mean at least that just because Bertrand made a lot of tackles doesn’t mean he’s some great player.
And honestly the grades could mean something like: Bertrand makes more good plays but also way more bad plays than Griffith does.
I don’t see how Griffith having a better grade than Bertrand itself shows that PFF has a blind spot on this.
Just a difference of perspective, I suppose. I would never classify Griffith’s play as “solid but unspectacular”. The last part is accurate, but I don’t think him very solid, to this point anyways.
I called it a blind spot, because a lot like a Shayne Simon, Griffith has a lot of snaps, but doesn’t make hardly any plays. Personally, I’d grade that really low for failing to get involved enough, but the model apparently cuts more of a break on that. Which doesn’t make it wrong or useless, just a different way to look at it (and I’m not saying it as simple as tackles = playing well and Bertrand necessarily deserves a great grade, either).
I see. That makes more sense. The way they describe their own grading is that they give each play a grade. Something like zero for neutral and (i forget the exact scale) 1 or 2 for good plays and negative or 1 or 2 for negative plays (I think on half point increments).
So making plays (hurries, knockdowns, sacks etc. get positive points e.g.) Negative plays might be like you lost a gap (whether it turned out to be a problem or not). So they are looking at way more detailed things than typically show up in the stats.(You can see all the details here: https://profootballfocussupport.zendesk.com/hc/en-us/articles/360029567633-How-does-PFF-grade-each-position-)
Someone might do their job in the defense while not making a ton of “extra” plays (but also not having a lot of negative plays either) and that turns out to be what I called “solid” player (maybe we could quibble with the word). You can have a couple of those on a top defense but obviously not too many.
Georgia e.g. had 16 players with better grades than Griffith (at least 100 snaps) but had about 4 guys (guys 17-21 on their D so to speak) that had grades around (slightly) under what Griffth’s grade was. So maybe it would be better to say he is a solid backup player.
I’m not sure exactly how those are put together to form their grade but that’s the basis for it then (and which informs my interpretation of the results). I think for a season grade though it’s not just an average but takes into account consistent, etc.
Maybe they are unreliable but their grade not matching your expectations of one particular player doesn’t show that at all.
Bertrand seemed very good versus bad teams. Versus good teams: bowled over, faked out and out of position.
FWIW Bauer seems to much more physical than Bertrand, but it could be just the hair.
Kinda going off memory, but I thought Bertrand was good against Wisconsin (7 solo tackles). That’s his type of game, straight forward power-on-power looking to stop the run. Also just a stat line but had 8 solo tackles and 2 of his 6.5 on the season for a loss against Oklahoma St.
I thought style (spread offenses like UVA, USC, UNC) were more problematic for him than the strength of opponent. Only 1 pass defended officially all season (against Georgia Tech) which is a huge problem at the Will.
Thought Bertrand was plenty physical enough, just not very fluid in space. Agree with you that Bauer is more effective there, seems like he can get around the field better.
And, to the article’s point, I kinda wonder if Liufau will be as steady as we think. I’d imagine a Bauer vs. Liufau position battle would be a good one at Will, if it came to that, could be just me but I don’t see Liufau as a huge athletic upgrade over Bauer, especially with his experience.
Just my opinion, but I think Liufau is more explosive and athletic than Bauer. Holding lack of production against him seems silly, since basically everyone who watched a fall practice last season agreed that he was much improved from 2020 and ready to make a major impact. Assuming he’s still 100% of what he was pre-injury, of course.
Bauer was the only LB available last season who was even capable of getting to the quarterback on a blitz (and only player in the back seven at all once Hamilton went down). ND won’t be a great defense until they have more options to realistically get pressure on the opponent’s QB. But that could change in a hurry with Liufau, Kollie, Sneed, etc, if the kids grow into roles quickly.
I also think Bauer and Bertrand will prove to be a pretty effective two-headed Mike LB in the fall.
Fair enough, not really firm in that conviction and I wasn’t holding Liufau’s lack of production against him so much as just pointing out that I thought the article made a good point that Liufau is more projection than actual proof at this point. Which doesn’t mean he can’t or won’t be good in 2022, just that for as much as he can be talked up, it seems more hopes and potential that is unrealized as of now.
Ranked from worst to first with PFF grade with ():
So 1-5 games were all below average – some obviously WAY below his average grade of 58.3.
Best games
But again the devil is in the details.
Some people really don’t like PFF, but if you asked me about Bertrand’s season I’d tell you he was really really good against Toledo and the worst player on the field against Cincinnati, so… that seems right to me.
I don’t understand how many could actually judge whether pff is good or not unless you are also watching film. It seems an example of simply trusting your gut. In the end I take PFF’s grades to be one person’s (though it’s not done by just one person) judgment on the film from an outside perspective (outside the team’s I mean). But they are actually watching the film and know what to look for. Most of us are not (even if we knew what to look for) watching all the game film and grading every player’s actions on every play.
So I try to use the data in conjunction with the other narratives there are about a player and make some kind of limited judgment about the truth.
E.g. Hamilton’s grades are not elite – though even PFF considers him a top 5 draft pick (and for a safety that’s REALLY high). What does that mean? Maybe it means Hamilton was asked to do a lot and he made a lot of big plays but also made more blunders that you would expect. And likely it also means he’s still just barely scratching his potential – given his athletic traits. I don’t have time to dive into all the data that PFF even offers in order to know the full story.
Have we ever figured out…
1) Does PFF have all-22 college film?
2) How they release grades so quickly?
I know mgoblog does a similar grading system for each play and man that is extremely labor intensive and takes a really long time to hand out 700+ grades for a single game.
Hmm
1) I guess I assume they do (though I don’t know) because otherwise how could they possibly grade most (half?) of what happens on a play?
2) I think (though I don’t remember where I read this) they hire graders and they train them in a certain way so that they are looking for the same stuff.
I also think I’ve read somewhere or see that they make comments on an article like “on first watch” so I think sometimes grades might be corrected or confirmed (though that might be more with the NFL).
I’ve also seen that sometimes lower rated teams don’t have their games graded as quickly as e.g. ND’s – which if I remember correctly would be out sometime mid-morning on Sundays.
So I don’t quite have authoritative answers to these but that’s my sense of it.
Ok I found the article I had read before trying PFF this year:
https://www.arrowheadpride.com/2015/3/3/8134847/inside-the-numbers-for-the-kansas-city-chiefs-understanding-pff-grades
It’s very helpful and offers a lot of details that are not easily found on PFF’s site. Though it’s from 7 years ago (I think they only had NFL grades then too). So perhaps they have updated the process a bit though I presume the process is relatively similar for college).
I do know one thing that seems wrong in the article is that the grades are cumulative. I’m pretty sure I remember reading on PFF site that the yearlong grade is not simply an average but that it also takes into account consistency.
I, too, was surprised about Moala. He’s always seemingly been right on the edge of co-starter PT, and then gets injured. I could see him retiring, but transferring was a twist I didn’t see coming.
I’m not sure I have the words to describe how awful Bertrand was in the Oklahoma State game. It was so bad that it’s pretty clear that he should never play Buck again. If Mike doesn’t work out for him, honestly the hope should be that he rarely sees the field going forward. It was that bad.
I just re-watched the 2nd half here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UvUU7iQIGEc
He missed a couple tackles for sure. But also tied for the team-lead in stuffs. Pretty much everyone struggled over those last 2 quarters. I’m ready to cut him some slack. He wasn’t supposed to start and was asked to do a ton for the defense. He’s practically playing Rover on a lot of those Fiesta Bowl snaps!
Regardless of how the rest played out, my lasting memory of Drew White from 2021 will always be the pick-6 against Wisconsin. Such a badass play.
Much like we always say about Mayer, you can’t cover him with an LB and you can’t tackle him with a safety, Bertrand was our LB who couldn’t cover. I don’t like criticizing kids, but he was put in a role that he was not suited for. Coming into the year he was, likely, the 3rd string Will, behind Liufau and Simon. He was also likely the 3rd string Mike (behind White and Bauer). I think many of us were hoping Kollie would emerge and Bertrand would be a good ST player. For whatever reason, Kollie never emerged. With no support at Will, Bertrand couldnt come off the field.
By the end of the year, his weakness in coverage was obvious and exploited. Perhaps we should have used Pryor or Kiser more at Will in coverage, but we didn’t.