Notre Dame is entering an absolutely massive season for the defensive line with question marks all over the place. That will offer us a whole lot to talk about today. Will the Irish be moving some players around? Adding more transfers? Truly adopting more of a 3-man front?
Marcus Freeman and Al Washington, in conjunction with Al Golden, have a lot to sort through this off-season as the 2023 season approaches.
Previous 2023 depth chart articles:
Projected 2023 Defensive Line
| WDE | DT | NG | SDE |
|---|---|---|---|
| Botelho r-Jr. | Cross 5th Sr.* | Mills r-Jr. | Jean-Baptiste 6th Sr. |
| Burnham r-Fr. | Ford r-Fr. | Rubio r-So. | Osafo-Mensah 5th Sr. |
| Gobaira r-Fr. | Hinish r-Fr. | Keanaaina r-Jr. | Vernon Fr. |
| Mukam Fr. | Traore Fr. | Onye r-Jr. | Ehrensberger r-Jr. |
| Houstan Fr. |
*Returning starters
Experience: B
Depth: C+
Talent: C-
What of This 3-3-5 Business?
My projections above are looking at what creates the most balance (i.e. one spot not having enough proven talent) while keeping things as realistic as possible in a 4-man front. It’s my attempt to find what could maybe work best with the talent on hand, and not necessarily what is the most likely decision from Notre Dame.
Right now, there are no easy answers.
Keeping Mills at strong-side end leaves nose guard in a really rough spot (which has fueled the flames surrounding the status of Keanaaina and his roster spot seen on other websites). As anyone can plainly see, nose guard is a massive need right now for the Irish.
Then, you look at leaving Jean-Baptiste at the weak-side with Botelho, which could be a nice 1-2 punch for sure, but that creates problems at strong-side end, especially if Mills does end up on the interior.
Mills at the strong-side and Jean-Baptiste on the weak-side probably makes the most sense for what they’ve played in the past, but then the interior of the line is shockingly weak.
Back when Marcus Freeman was hired I discussed his base Tite front and how Cincinnati thrived using a 3-3-5 scheme with an impactful defensive back “sniper” often playing close to the line of scrimmage. This off-season, there’s been a lot of talk about the 3-3-5 being used a lot more often for Notre Dame. Switching to a 3-man front a majority of the time would certainly alleviate some of the pressure on the defensive line.
That could bring Notre Dame this look:
WDE: Botelho, Jean-Baptiste
NT: Cross, Rubio
SDE: Mills, Osafo-Mensah
Suddenly, no one with a glaring lack of experience would be in the two-deep. However, with this 3-man front there is still a big concern about lack of size. No matter which way you slice it, there aren’t a ton of big bodies to choose from for the Irish.
Youth is Served
Notre Dame may end up being satisfied with their top 5 or 6 players up front in this unit. However, this will be a big off-season for young players and new names to begin taking the next step. The depth is needed this year and it’ll be absolutely crucial for 2024, as well.
Gabriel Rubio made a small impact last year and has to take on a larger role. Tyson Ford, Josh Burnham, and Aiden Gobaira could all be moving up into the mix a little bit, or much heavier than expected. You could argue Notre Dame absolutely needs a hit and immediate impact from one of these players (the highly touted Ford would be a godsend) this season.
There’s also the case of true sophomore middle linebacker Junior Tuihalamaka who may be added to the pass-rushing weak-side and possibly a long-term option at that spot, too.
The Pressure to Get Pressure
Notre Dame was very much a havoc-by-committee type of defense last year and will be bringing back 50% of its sack production and 60% of its tackles for loss from 2022. Yet, you wonder how things will look up front without the major target of Isaiah Foskey drawing the attention of opponent offenses.
I know many think the 3-3-5 is inadequate to stop the run. It’s one of those areas of football that is probably a little overblown for concerns from the common fan but also not something that can be completely dismissed, either.
Can this defensive line be balanced in both areas? Are they going to be able to generate enough pressure and havoc while also maintaining enough integrity against the run? If they are weak in an area can the rest of the defense compensate?
I don’t really have an issue with the 3-3-5 as a general concept, but does ND have the right personnel to run it as the base package in 2023? I’m not sure the 6 guys listed here could hold up over the course of a season; that just doesn’t feel like enough size. I’ll be honest though, I’m not sure how Freeman ran his 3-3-5 at Cincy, so maybe his scheme doesn’t require the kind of size I’m thinking of?
Is D-Line the position on this roster that can least afford an injury to a key player? If Cross or Mills went down for any sort of extended period of time, maybe you would be forced into a 3 down lineman situation anyway. I know people are worried about Safety, but I think D Line is higher on my list of concerns. Especially since the 2022 D Line covered up so many issues with our LBs.
Yeah it seems like a lot of the other sites/podcasts don’t think we can go to three down because we don’t have the size. We have some guys who can beat blocks with quickness, but they’re not going to be able to two gap and hold up against double teams, so we’d get more of every ND fan’s favorite recurring moment on defense, Marist and/or Bertrand runs directly into a guard.
Interior DL doesn’t have a lot of star names, but I think they’ll be OK. Hopefully Keanaaina stays and gets to play. Someone like Ford and/or Rubio needs to step up, but someone probably will grow. I think you’re right that it would be a big worry if Cross went down, and they will need Cross+Mills to be very good, but I don’t think it would be that much of a drop off. Not like Cross is Jerry Tillery or anything, even if he’s good when he has his moments.
I think 3-3-5 will be fine to run personnel-wise, and probably even more-so since DL isn’t seen as the usual strength that it has been in recent years. ND was running 4-2-5 as almost a base last year and that wasn’t great because it took Kiser off the field too much. I like the idea of three LB’s on the field more. Then again, they tried that very strategy against USC and got pushed around and run all over, so maybe it’s not the best of ideas in execution. Probably can’t be a full-time 3-3-5 as it is and need an extra down lineman in 1st/2nd down or possible run situations.
Yeah it does feel a little weird to say we’re in big trouble if Cross goes down. I guess I have less confidence in young interior linemen than just about any other position to have a young player. Although I guess those guys aren’t really young, they’re just inexperienced.
Hopefully that soft start to the schedule this year will give them a chance to rotate liberally along that line.
Like you said Eric I’m hoping the rest of the D can compensate. Hopefully at least 2 of Junior, Burnham, and Sneed blossom into as good or better than our current LBs, and Kollie gets better too, and they’re quick and disruptive enough to make a 3-4 or 3-3-5 work.
Also hopeful our back 5 (plus the athletic young LBs?) can generate some coverage sacks, especially if Morrison proves able to handle many team’s #1 WR one on one.