I can’t tell you how many times over the years I’ve read comments from Notre Dame fans that just casually throw it out there that the Irish could win the National Championship if such and such (usually couched in extremely likely terms) happened soon. Maybe it’s a star recruit about to sign, or a player coming off a big game, or even a facilities upgrade!
Damn rookies, when I read this stuff I think there’s no way people who type these things are over 25 years old. It takes years to batter your heart into believing a title isn’t possible.
Well, I’m just going to say it now…Notre Dame can win the 2020 National Championship. I don’t think it’s likely nor am I saying that they will win, it just seems legitimately more possible today than at any point in a quarter century. Sure, there’s hindsight with 2012 and technically the odds of winning one game are easier than the current playoff format but that was a matchup of No. 1 vs. No. 15 in the SP+ rankings and that Irish squad had some glaring holes on the roster.
Eight years ago, Alabama out-classed Notre Dame in a way that I don’t think would happen in 2020.
Favorable Draw
Let’s start with the mechanics of the upcoming playoff. Any chance at a championship would mean receiving a nice serving of luck and that could come in the form of being paired up with a perceived weaker team in the semi-finals. It’s quite possible Notre Dame could sneak into the playoffs with a loss in the ACC Championship Game but any chance at facing a ‘weaker’ program in the semi-finals means beating Clemson. Again.
That won’t be easy, obviously.
Even if that happens, the Irish would need help from around the country. Mainly, A&M* would have to drop a game, Florida plays Alabama so tightly that Notre Dame jumps up to the No. 1 seed, and we see Cincinnati sneak into the No. 4 seed for the playoffs. That’s not a ton of chaos needed in the grand scheme, but again, it starts with beating Clemson again and likely soundly enough to grab the No. 1 seed.
*You could make the case that a Notre Dame vs. A&M playoff matchup would qualify as a weaker opponent in a national sense, too.
3 Straight Top 5 Wins
There was a time in 2012 when it looked like Notre Dame was going to face Kansas State for all of the marbles. Ever since then, we’ve all talked about ‘what if’ the Irish got that lucky? The old BCS system feels like it’s approximately 350% easier to win a title than the current playoff format.
It’s not helping matters that this year, of all years, is the one that Notre Dame will be tasked with beating Clemson again because the pandemic forced the team into the ACC for the year. I’d much rather have a spot locked up right now with Senior Day against Syracuse and a trip to Stanford to play out the season.
This is all to say that winning 3 straight games (and 4 out of the last 8 games on the season) against Top 5 teams is just ridiculously difficult and the odds of doing so are extremely, extremely low. But, it’s not impossible and someone has to do it, I suppose.
Looking back through the past and it seems even more daunting for Notre Dame. The Irish are 22-71-7 (.255) all-time against teams that finished in the top 5 of the AP Poll with a 23rd win likely coming from the Clemson game earlier this year. The program has only won 3 straight against Top 5 finishers on 3 occasions, only twice in the same season, and never in consecutive games within the same season:
1943 – Notre Dame beat #3 Michigan on October 9th, #4 Navy on October 30th, and #2 Iowa Pre-Flight on November 20th to win a title before WWII disrupted college football.
1988 – Notre Dame beat #4 Michigan on September 10th, #2 Miami on October 15th, and #5 West Virginia on January 2nd. You can even throw #7 USC from November 26th as that was basically a play-in game for all the marbles but at least the ’88 schedule offered breathing room between these big games. Plus, I think 1988 West Virginia qualifies as a ‘weaker’ opponent.
Any way you slice it, having to beat Clemson, Ohio State, and Alabama all in a row is unprecedented in Notre Dame history.
2020 Could Get Way More Weird
You may have seen the last time the Dodgers and Lakers won a title in the same year Notre Dame also won a championship. You may have seen the last 3 National Champions all debuted at #2 in the first College Football Playoff Rankings which is where the Irish slotted in last week. You may have seen how numerous national pundits are talking about Notre Dame as a legit title threat.
Maybe it’s our year!
Realistically, Notre Dame’s weaknesses at receiver, corner, and to a lesser extent quarterback, compared to the likes of Alabama and Clemson cast a shadow of doubt on achieving this ultimate goal. Ideally, you’d like an offense that can drop 400 passing yards if it needed to and corners that could matchup with DeVonta Smith.
But, it’s 2020, it’s possible things get way more weird, and the equation keeps changing in Notre Dame’s favor.
Perhaps we see Dabo Swinney take his Super Villainy to unprecedented levels, he is punished by the college football gods, falls to Notre Dame again, misses the playoffs, and bursts into flames during a press conference.
Perhaps Ohio State ends up not playing enough games to qualify for the Big Ten Championship and the committee refuses to pick them for the playoffs.
I don’t have much in regards to Alabama except for the threat of a major injury, and hey, that’s probably more likely than Swinney self-combusting.
The pandemic hangs over this entire season and no one is sure how this will unfold. The Committee has signaled (although said nothing officially that I’m aware of) that they’d postpone any playoff game if it was needed but you still wonder if any program would walk into the semi-finals or championship game missing some crucial personnel.
I think it’s okay to say Notre Dame may need a little help to win it all and 2020 may be just the year to oblige.
(1) Yea, the irony that the one year we are in a conference it actually makes things *more* difficult to make it to the playoffs.
(2) What do people think of Ohio state making it? It seems a real possibility that next week’s game may get cancelled which means they’d have 5 games. I think either way they’d end up with 6 (virus willing): either by scheduling an additional game during the 12/19 weekend or by the Big10 changing the rules to let OSU play in their title game.
Is 6 total games enough? Does it matter whether the 6th game is in the conference championship game (in other words does it matter that OSU win the actual conference title)? Does the 6th game against anyone in the big10 make a difference (in other words is there any other serious team that would be a “good” win?)?
I think it’s right on the edge, so does it matter if there’s another legitimate 4th team to take instead?
Technically taking top 4 teams shouldn’t matter how many games you play but in practice it seems pretty disproportionate to take a team that’s played half the games of another team.
On, #1, maybe I just have a different perspective, but I don’t really think being in a conference makes it more difficult to make the playoffs. It does make it more difficult to make it to the playoffs while UNDEFEATED, but not necessarily overall more difficult.
Notre Dame could have lost Friday to UNC and it wouldn’t have ruined the season at all, when in a conference. Being in a conference is a license to carry a loss as a mulligan and still be able to redeem oneself by winning the conference, being as 12-1 P5 champs don’t often get left out of the playoff.
When independent, it likely means no margin for error and having to run the table. Is it easier to get to 12-0 than 12-1 with the 12th win being against a quality team? I wouldn’t think so.
ND would have had to beat ALL of Arkansas (who ain’t bad), Wisconsin (quite good in October!), USC, Navy, Clemson if this was a normal 2020. That’s possible, but tougher without any room for error.
This year, hell, even a “quality loss” to Clemson in the ACCCG and ND is likely a playoff team now. They have a loss to play with, if it’s the “right” kind of loss. That’s weasely, but that’s NCAA football for ya.
I get why ND treasures and favors its independence, that’s a fine path…But simply from the micro view of looking at the best path to compete for football championships? I’d think being in the ACC makes a lot of sense, even though in the big picture it’s not going to be an option.
If ND had lost to Wisconsin, then beaten all of those other teams, including Clemson, I think they still would have had a shot at the playoffs, assuming Clemson wins every other game they play.
That’s fair. I should clarify by saying that certainly possibilities and scenarios for a 11-1 ND independent to make the playoff exist. I just struggle to bank on it. The big worry is there are 5 power conferences and only 4 spots. A 12-1 P5 champ be it a Clemson or Ohio St or SEC team is going to outrank a 11-1 Notre Dame. That makes the road to a playoff tougher as an independent.
Join a conference and the regular season games are de-emphasized a bit. I mean, really, big picture, the October ND/Clemson game means very little to the playoff picture. It just sets the table for what comes next. ND could have lost that game and if they win the ACC CG, all is forgiven. (Assuming no other slip ups).
Agreed, I do not think a 1 loss ND EVER makes the playoff unless it beats a 1 loss OSU or 1 loss Clemson. Fortunately (or unfortunately), both of those teams are on the schedule in the next few years.
But that’s why *this year* it makes it more difficult for us because we already beat clemson. Now this year we have to beat them *twice.* If we weren’t in a conference this year we wouldn’t not have to beat *clemson* twice.
And I don’t think our schedule wouldn’t have turned out too much harder otherwise. A little better on the bottom but not in terms of elite teams. I’d rather beat clemson once and wiscon. once than clemson twice.
Right, but my point was Notre Dame didn’t really have to beat Clemson twice. ND could have lost the first game (especially in 2OT), and then used a win in the ACCCG to beat Clemson once and it would be great.
And, given the way it could shake out, there’s a reasonable chance ND could lose to Clemson (and thereby not beat them twice) and still make the playoff.
…and we still might not have to do that. If we lose to Clem by less than a TD, I can’t imagine the committee would leave us out in favor of a) a second SEC team (even if FL beats Bama) b) tOSU with only 6 wins against that trash conference c) a G5 team with 11 wins against their trash conference.
In that instance, we get grouped with UF, TAMU, Clem who all have 1 loss. We would have the best win among that group and our one loss will have been by a lesser margin than any of these other teams’ loss.
If Florida beats Bama, you think Bama doesn’t get in? I doubt it, based on how dominant they’ve been this year, but who knows. Every committee is different.
Well if FL beats Bama, and ND loses to Clem by less than a TD I think you’d have Clem/FL/Bama/ND. That’s the scenario that finally bumps out tOSU.
The problem with that scenario is that depending on how you stack them, you either open with conference championship rematches or you risk conference championship rematches for the NC. I doubt the committee will want either. Unless tOSU does not qualify for their conference championship game due to lack of play, in your scenario, I think a 1 loss Alabama is ahead of ND, and we finish 5th. Our win over a Trevor Lawrence-less Clemson will be discounted.
I think those are the only 5 teams that can make it although I imagine in the scenario you outline, Florida beats Bama, Clemson beats ND, tOSU doesn’t qualify, Cincy is the team that edges us to avoid the rematch issues in the opening round and they hope Clemson beats Florida in the opener. Doing that allows them to say to all the Group of 5 teams, that they can make the play-offs.
Thus, I think to be certain we make the play-offs, we need to beat Clemson OR we need Cincy to lose and tOSU to either lose or not qualify.
I would really caution against using this year as evidence ND should join the ACC. I know the pundits are being favorable to us now, but consider that Wisconsin got knocked out by COVID, Ohio State may be headed for the same fate, and the Big XII and PAC 12 both played themselves out of contention in the first couple weeks of their seasons. The reason ND is being treated this way is not because we’re in the ACC; it’s because there are so few playoff contenders left at this point.
Let’s see how the ACC handles the Clemson/FSU situation in a week or two. I would not assume that the ACC is our friend.
If OSU is ineligible for the Big Ten Championship, I would imagine they will play Wisconsin December 19th, which honestly is probably a better team than Northwestern (even though they lost to Northwestern). I believe a 6-0 OSU, coming off a beatdown of Wisconsin in a non-Conference Championship game, WOULD get in. I would be annoyed by it, but I would be willing to bet the committee sneaks them in.
I agree. Ohio State is still third in the AP, 4th last week in the CFP poll. This year is unprecedented, so who knows, but I don’t see the committee not taking an undefeated Ohio State, being as their criteria is trying to pick the “best teams” not necessarily the most accomplished ones. Ohio State has enough brand value and the flashy Heisman contender QB, I think they’ll be fine.
Do agree with ACS’ logic to not trust the ACC, surely their motivation isn’t going to be to favor ND, but that shouldn’t be a surprise to anyone, I wouldn’t think.
What if it’s 5-0 OSU? Is 5 games enough to make it?
Michigan is looking like it might have to cancel future games.
OSU is in the Top 4 now despite playing half as many (or fewer in the case of BYU) games as other contenders. Personally, I think it’s absurd to consider OSU for the playoff. But the committee appears to have no interest in my input.
Ol’ Mr. Sunshine over here.
Also in 1988 Bill Elliott won his first NASCAR season Cup championship. In 2020, his son Chase won his first NASCAR season Cup championship. History doesn’t repeat itself, but it often rhymes..And it seems like there are a lot of 1988/2020 parallels out there in addition to Lakers/Dodgers.
Wow, I didn’t realize we were 15th(!) in SP+ in 2012. And 13th(!) in 2018, behind eight SEC teams.
My conclusion: we should never join the SEC.
Where are we this year? ESPN has hidden SP+ behind their stupid Insider pay wall.
A distant 4th behind 1) Bama 2) Clemson 3) Ohio State.
Yeah, hard to criticize Bill C. for getting paid, but it’s a real bummer that the SP+ is behind a paywall and also the granular data isn’t available at all. I think now all you can see is overall, offense, and defense, whereas in the past there was all sorts of information.
The good news is that there’s now a lot of the same metrics Bill uses floating around elsewhere – collegefootballdata.com can be a bit of a bear to navigate but has an insane amount of data. If you go to charts, then team metrics, you can basically create instant scatterplots of whatever you want from offense success rate vs defense success rate or something as specific as havoc rates, stuff rates, explosiveness on passing downs, etc.
The piece I miss most is 1) the advanced stat profiles that had the FBS ranking in each category so easily visible in one spot and 2) the opponent adjustments historically were extremely helpful in the Offense + Defense ranks. This year those are shaky for SP+ and I think all stats systems since there’s so few mixes of non-conference opponents, but that’s the missing ingredient on a lot of what’s publicly available (so you see Wisconsin’s overall stats look great, but not that their opponents have been trash)
You can get it here:
https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ncaa/fplus/2020
God almighty, Dabo is obnoxious. I feel like he’s going to get a huge heaping dose of karma one of these days, and I am going to enjoy it a lot.
Especially if it comes on December 19th.
So Vanderbilt finally fired Derek Mason, which if anyone there knows what they’re doing means they’ll be wanting to talk to Clark Lea, but it looks like the Vandy “fanbase” on Twitter is pretty obsessed with relieving Charlotte of Will Healy to fill the spot. ND should offer to kick in on Healy’s contract if it means we can keep Lea and keep focus on this season.
https://twitter.com/MickeyRyan1045/status/1333231348467818498?s=20
Being frank, Clark Lea shouldn’t go anywhere near Vanderbilt. It will surely tempt him if they call because he’s an alum, but that job isn’t going to get him anywhere. He can stick around at ND a little longer and get a much better job within a couple of years if he wants.
RE: “A nice serving of luck”
There’s a rather humorous what-if scenario which I haven’t seen anyone talking about yet. If ND and Clemson both win out the regular season, and one of them has to Covid-cancel the ACCCG, this year’s ACC bylaws say the title of ACC Champion is awarded to the ACC team with the best win percentage (which would be ND). That means, in that scenario, ND is crowned conference champ and doesn’t even have to face Clemson again.
Maybe the most interesting question then is what does the playoff committee do with Clemson? (ND would obviously be in the playoff as an undefeated conf. champ.)
Clemson was 3rd in the first CFP last week, I’d bet, without mayhem, the committee would take them if they’re 9-1, 10-1 and the only loss is a 2OT road game against a top team without their all-world QB.
It would be crazy in this scenario if Bama loses the SECCG to Florida and they both are one loss teams.
ND as undefeated is in for sure, but then there’s 3 spots for four teams in: UF, Bama, Ohio State, Clemson.
In that scenario, you’d have three 1-loss teams and one undefeated team with only 6 wins. It would be delightfully chaotic to watch one of these school’s fan bases melt down in self righteous indignation.
Eric, it doesn’t just take years, it takes decades to believe we can’t win the title. So many beat downs over so many years provide the empirical data, along with the obvious elite talent mismatches in the offensive skill positions.
this year feels like we are closer, but do we get the cigar? I would love it, but I think we’d need tons of COVID help.
Forgetting the Buckeyes and Tigers, I look at Bama and just wince. Jones, Smith, Harris look to be from another galaxy. Throw in Saban as coach and, jeepers.
Then again, Clemson threw for a million yards and we still beat them by shutting down Etienne. Not sure Trevor Lawrence could have done much better than the freshman. Maybe our defense could do the same vs Bama, if we get that far. Despite the decades of disaster, hope still does spring eternal.
Oh, and by the way, putting tOSU in the playoffs after playing only 4-6 games would be ludicrous. College football is all about surprises. Each game has a risk, and playing fewer games reduces the risk proportionately. Purdue beat the Buckeyes in a wildly improbable upset a couple years ago. I don’t care how good they LOOK, they should have to play the games. So covid is beyond their control, tough cookies, they should have started their season earlier to have more cushion.
I agree completely. Also, the threat of injuries goes up in each game that you play. No team (almost never) gets healthier as the season goes on. The typical scenario is that injuries accumulate and players get wear and tear as the season progresses. Only playing 6 games is taking out that possibility for injury that ND has had to take an extra 6 times vs what Ohio St will have to worry about.
What is we took out 6 games from our schedule. We might have Patterson, Jayson Ademiola, Paul Moala back plus any other potential injuries in our last 3 games.
Holy crap, I already forgot about Moala. Guys, we have a LOT of useful bodies on defense.
I have to love all this, I had this tiny spark of hope alight when Lou Somogyi mentioned the last time the Dodgers won the Series was the last time ND won the Natty, and then, the Dodgers won…
So thanks also for summarizing the other weirdnesses. To expand on one of the weird perspectives on this season, the virus, I have to feel that managing and leading a major college football team in a pandemic is more than luck (though that is needed, no doubt). It seems to me to reflect on the traits baked in to a program. I have been mightily impressed with how the Irish players have handled their early season COVID-19 crisis. Perhaps self-discipline based on values can help a team navigate these troubled waters. Just wanted to throw that possibility out there.
Just about an team that makes the playoffs will have to beat 3 top 5 teams or close to it except maybe OSU if they get in.
I don’t think that is even close to true. If we weren’t in the ACC then Clemson would not be having to worry about that. Ohio State this year won’t have to do it. No team from the PAC or the Big 12 (obviously no one else making it from those conferences) would be facing that scenario either. Only in a conference with 2 elite or very nearly elite teams in a given year would you have to win 3 top 5 games (or close to it) in a row to win the championship.
I think one of the key ingredients this year is that in addition to COVID causing an additional degree of unpredictability and variance that generally gives more of a chance to the underdogs, I’m not sure there is a dominant team.
Bama appears to be the closest, and is kind of in the LSU ’19 mold of if your passing offense is so dominant that’s far and away the most important thing (their rushing offense works too). But they gave up nearly 600 yards of offense to Ole Miss, and about 6 YPP to A&M and UGA (with Bennett at QB) – two offenses that are fine but I think easily worse than ours.
Clemson we all know extremely well at this point, but I think relative to recent years is 1) down a bit at WR, 2) down significantly at OL, and 3) the defense (at least at current health) is more vulnerable. From what I’ve seen Ohio State is in a similar mold – exceptional offense (better WR corps than Clemson), but shaky defensively.
So at the end of the day, it’s not where I would have picked it, but we have possibly the best projected defense in the CFP, and likely the best OL. We can work with that.
OHIO STATE – DO THE MATH
Everyone’s talking about tOSU getting left out of their conference championship game, but no one’s actually doing the math.
As a league, the Big 10 has not played 6 matchups. If tOSU has to cancel against MSU next week that’ll make it 7 total matchups for the league. Why’s that significant? Because that’s enough to lower the league average to 7 games per a team rather than 8, meaning tOSU only needs to play 5 total to be eligible for the Big 10 championship game. Which means as long as tOSU plays one of their next two games, they’re eligible.
Of course that creates the scenario that if tOSU has to cancel against MSU, Michigan could cancel their match against tOSU to screw them out of the conference championship!
MATH NOTE: Keep in mind that when you average the number of games played by every team you count every game twice (once for each opponent), so 7 matchups being canceled removes 14 “games” from the records of the Big 10 teams.
Michigan meekly bowing out or finding a way to pass on the final game of the year to dodge tOSU and potentially torpedo a playoff season would be hilarious and classic Harbaugh. If you can’t beat ’em on the field, find a way to not play…
Guess who just paused all team activities!?!??????
If there was any coach in America that would have his team conveniently have an outbreak just to hurt Ohio St. it’s definitely Harbaugh. He’s just such a weirdo that it seems completely within the realm of possibility.
Also, not losing to Ohio State 70-0 helps him keep his job!
Alabama will also have to beat three Top 6 teams in a row. Florida, Semi-final and final. They may be the only team that has done it before, but I would have to go back and check their SEC East opponents in the NC years. No reason ND can’t do it.
Quick research, and Bama has not done it yet in the playoff era:
2014 – Faced UF in the SECCG but the Gators had just lost to FSU and would end the year with 3 straight losses and finish No. 18 nationally.
2017 – Lost to Auburn in the Iron Bowl, missed the SECCG.
Damn data. So we can be the first. We are ND. No reason not to be the first. Nobody said winning the NC would be easy. So basically, this year, other than tOSU, either Clemson, Florida, Bama or ND will have to do it if they win the NC. So, there is an 80% probability that the NC winner will have done it. I wonder if that would make tOSU the favorite to win it all. They only have to beat 2 Top 6 teams to win it all.