I’ve talked about the quarterbacks and offense as a whole in these fall camp previews. Today, it’s time to discuss the much more controversial defense. Skepticism abounds from all corners, a handful of major impact players are gone, but a slew of young players are ready to make their mark next to a core of veteran returners.
It’s likely a make-or-break year for Brian VanGorder. Let’s talk about the situation heading into the defensive coordinators third year with the Irish.
Defensive End
The strong-side we know will be the Isaac Rochell show for as much as he can handle. For camp though, you get the sense he’s one of the players who doesn’t have to be overworked and can rest quite a bit. This should set up a very big set of practices for redshirt sophomore Jonathan Bonner. Last year, Bonner got some decent reps (107 snaps, 7th most among linemen) and managed only 4 assisted tackles and one quarterback hurry. Rochell should play 800+ snaps again but ideally Bonner comes out of camp as a legit backup.
We’ll wait for any updates during Brian Kelly’s press conference on Friday regarding junior Grant Blankenship. For all we know he’s still suspended and that’s going to be a tough time crawling out of the dog house if and when that time comes. The 6’5″ native from Texas essentially blew a redshirt year (25 snaps) last fall and is in danger of being passed on the depth chart.
Incoming freshman Ade Ogundeji is believed to be far too raw at this stage so he’s probably just spending camp getting acclimated with the program and getting stronger. Fellow freshman Khalid Kareem is someone to keep an eye on, though. He has a spring under his belt and pretty decent size for his age. I don’t want to put too much pressure on him but Kareem could be a starter in 2017 so a good fall camp and earning reps this fall might be a good idea.
A lack of sacks and always chasing a difference maker at defensive end has followed Notre Dame around forever but…is it possible…the situation at weak-side defensive is kind of nice? Rising junior Andrew Trumbetti has been kind of cast aside (a little dramatic on my part, I know) just ready for the bust label to be applied. If he can string together a healthy summer and fall camp I think he can develop into a really nice player who will convert some of those 6 quarterback hurries on 383 snaps into a handful of sacks. More than anyone, he needs a healthy camp.
The coaching staff appears serious about keeping redshirt sophomore Jay Hayes on the weak-side which will be fascinating to watch. If you’re looking for more sacks and pressures an entire line of beef probably isn’t for you. Then again, VanGorder is adamant about bringing pressure from the back seven as much as from the front four. And if Hayes is pushing for starting reps the line could become really strong against the run which can be a godsend for the linebackers.
Obviously, Daelin Hayes is a wildcard. The shoulders seem to be doing well, things went about as well as expected in the spring and he has the skill-set to be the team’s best pass-rusher. A big question for me is if all three of Trumbetti/J. Hayes/D. Hayes are good players how does Notre Dame rotate them? It’s easy to envision Daelin as a third down specialist but in the era of uptempo offenses that job is more difficult than ever just to get on the field.
Most years, Julian Okwara would be generating some excitement as a weak-side end in his first year. The depth here just isn’t conducive to a low 4-star making an impact which is better for everyone involved anyway.
Defensive Tackle
Jarron Jones, Jerry Tillery, Daniel Cage and then…who exactly? I see a few scenarios coming into play. One, the staff feels a lot better about the untested depth than the general public. Two, we’re going to see players like Rochell and Jay Hayes taking a decent amount of reps on the interior. Three, we’re not taking the top three off the field ever.
Nearly every player is discussed this morning with our Notre Dame fall camp offense preview. https://t.co/pgcf3SCJxB
— 18 Stripes (@18stripes) August 2, 2016
A lot of people will be zeroing in on the effort and focus of Tillery, and rightfully so. He’ll be a key piece to the season. Nevertheless, we need to learn something about Taylor, Dew-Treadway, and Tiassum during this camp. The spring moved the needle for these guys but nowhere near enough where I’m feeling great about their ability to take some key snaps, if necessary, in Austin at night.
You might quibble how much those guys are needed and you would be right. I think the Irish can carve out a quality 7 or 8-man rotation without them. Still, fall camp sets the tone for the whole season and even if Taylor or Dew-Treadway still don’t play much in 2016 they need to be developing so they’re stepping up into bigger roles next spring.
Linebacker
The linebacker unit sums up how I’m feeling about the team as a whole: nervous, excited, and looking forward to new players and new faces. Sure, they could fail spectacularly and there’s a fear they could be a big reason why the VanGorder ship will sink hard. On the other hand, there’s a ton of promise in Morgan, Coney, and Bilal. That’s a trio of different breed of linebackers who, while they aren’t Jaylon Smith, raise the athletic profile of the linebackers as a whole. Add in the experience of Onwualu and Martini and I’m prepared to be pleasantly surprised.
Morgan and Onwualu have the middle and strong-side spots sewn up which leaves all of fall camp to focus on the weak-side where one of the team’s best positional battles could ensue. The conservative pick (which is what we’ve “predicted” in our chart) is Te’von Coney winning the battle. However, there should be stiff competition. Coney gets a lot of hype for playing as a freshman–and especially backing up Jaylon Smith–which justifiably makes this his spot to lose.
Still, Coney made 13 tackles on 62 snaps (actually really solid production) last year but it’s not an overwhelming amount of experience. Then you factor in his shoulder surgery which caused him to miss the spring and the door may be open for Asmar Bilal.
I won’t hide my feelings, I think Bilal is a starer very soon, and maybe a future star on the defense. He needed a little more size and acclimation into becoming a real linebacker, for sure. Yet, Bilal is right up there with Morgan as the most physically gifted linebacker on the team, he was awarded the defensive scout team player of the year, and held his own during the spring while taking 1st-team snaps.
Another issue with the ‘backers is if some of them get shuffled around again. It’s funny how we say to ourselves “this guy is a SAM only” and sometimes the coaching staff will even say that, too. Then, they’ll move someone. It seems VanGorder’s defense makes the linebacker spots a lot more interchangeable than the previous coach. From what I’ve seen Martini and Coney are very similar players so what’s to stop the former from moving back to the weak-side? We have a combined 7 years of eligibility from Coney/Bilal and I don’t see both of them remaining at the same position. Onwualu is done after this year and Morgan is suddenly an upperclassman, so Coney/Bilal look to be the future. This isn’t a prediciton but I can’t absolutely see Coney’s shoulder setting him back for 2016, he doesn’t start this fall, and ultimately he moves positions so that he can start in 2017.
Corner
This fall camp we are going to see how the staff handles the x-factor that is Shaun Crawford. Before hurting his knee last August he had zoomed up the depth chart into the starting nickel role. For 2016, it’s a question of whether he’s in that role again or if he is also going to play on the outside opposite Cole Luke and slide inside in nickel sets.
In some ways I think Crawford can be the player who saves the VanGorder defense. He’s yet to step on the field in a game uniform but in all of his time practicing with the team he’s been in the conversation as the best defender. We saw in the spring game he’s lightning quick with great ball skills–someone who is nearly impossible to stop penetrating into the backfield. This is why I think he’ll utlimately play more nickel. He’s far too valuable as a blitzer and the staff must be drooling at the prospect of creating a large run-stopping front four backed up by a pair of linebackers plus Crawford roaming the slot/middle wreaking havoc everywhere. Against the fast-paced spread teams Crawford should allow the Irish to stay in a 4-2-5 defense that offers a lot of flexibility.
Rising junior Nick Watkins is heavily favored to be a starter, although I’d really like to see a fight in camp for this spot. Not necessarily because I’m selling Watkins, he’s fine and on track to be a good player, I just think the defense needs more options. As I’ll talk about below, the scheme may be getting a bit of a tweak which is going to put more pressure on the corners to produce.
Sophomore Nick Coleman saw a little bit of work last year and could surprise during camp. Ashton White is another name to track who has the time in the program to start making some moves. If not these players a pair of freshmen might be pushing for some playing time. Troy Pride is capable of having a Keivarae Russell-type of an impact as a freshman. Pride will have far more competition to play that much, but still, he’s a fantastic blend of size and speed. I’m also a big fan of Julian Love who is likely to be relegated to nickel corner due to his size. That’s not a terrible place to be and could allow him some time on the field in dime sets. If you recall from NSD, Love was my favorite underrated player in the class–an opinion shared by many others.
Safety
One of the off-season changes for the VanGorder defense making the rounds is using much more Cover-1 and Cover-3 within the scheme. The reasoning behind the move is twofold: Simplify the decision process for the free safety and take advantage of said safeties athleticism.
In other words, the staff is deteremined to use Redfield in the best way possible and if that doesn’t work out the scheme will make it easier for true freshman Devin Studstill to take over. It’s an interesting and likely smart decision. Relying more on Cover-3 (see the diagram above) also takes advantage of strong safety Drue Tranquill’s ability to move toward the line of scrimmage and make plays. This puts more pressure on the corners but you get the sense the staff is more than willing to do that with the abilities of Luke and Crawford. All they need is a steady third option at corner and this could work out well.
My question is what happens if Tranquill, God forbid, suffers another long-term injury? We could see 6th-year senior Avery Sebastian step up but he’s struggled with injuries and didn’t make a move during the spring. Even still, no one has been wowed by his coverage skills so you’re basically getting a much, much smaller Tranquill with him on the field.
Sophomore Nicco Fertitta isn’t likely an option so it could be time to turn to freshmen in this camp. We could even see Studstill move to strong safety if others do not develop quickly enough. If not, Spencer Perry has to be next up. He’s already big enough and had the experience of practicing in the spring. His frame and athleticism is similar to Tranquill which could keep the scheme intact.
A young wildcard to watch out for is Virginia’s own Jalen Elliott. I hope he’s gained some weight because he has the playmaking skills to throw his hat in the ring and follow in the footsteps of Studstill with an accelerated path to playing time. Again, not sure he’s big enough to play strong safety yet I wouldn’t be surprised if he found a role (dime back?) somewhere and made a move real early in camp.
Gotta disagree on the situation on the weak side being kind of nice. There’s one player who played really poorly last year, one player who potentially playing out of position, and one player who has never played college football and is coming off of a shoulder injury. To me, the situation is kind of terrifying.
The only real positive I see is that they are 3 very different types of players, so perhaps they could get a nice rotation going there. But none of the 3 have shown anything at the college level yet that would make me feel good about this position.
I like the depth. Hopefully 3 good players which is a lot more than can very likely be said about 3-tech and the strong-side.
As I’ve been reading this and doing the Top 25 list, I really believe the defense won’t be any worse than last season, with an outside shot at getting better. Here’s the Kool Aid I’m drinking:
DL: The loss of Sheldon Day is the headline, but DT being just as good with Jarron Jones returning and a year of improvement for Cage/Tillery is extremely reasonable. There’s also more depth there with Taylor redshirting, and Bonner / Jay Hayes have experience inside as well.
Rush end remains an issue, but I don’t know how big the loss of Romeo Okwara truly was – obviously he put up big numbers, but how many of those were him winning a one on one battle versus cleaning up others forcing the QB off the spot? Between Trumbetti and Daelin Hayes I think you can reach 2015’s level, which is not great, but I don’t think the lack of pressure is getting any worse. And to Eric’s point, maybe having such big bodies on the DL makes pressure from the back seven (with potentially better blitzers, with Schmidt’s departure) better at hitting home on blitzes.
LB: No argument that Jaylon Smith is a gigantic loss, but was interesting to see Pro Football Focus in their preview mention that just having decent solid performance from all three LBs would lead to improvement (mostly because of how poorly they graded Schmidt out last season). Saw mentioned elsewhere, it’s also far less obvious (at least now) where to target – everyone knew to avoid Jaylon and put others in tough positions. With Morgan/Coney/Onwualu/Martini/Bilal that’s not so apparent.
CB: I believe Cole Luke can be closer to the ’14 edition than ’15, and that alone is a big improvement over not just his own performance but also KVR’s. I believe in Crawford, and the third corner (whoever emerges from Watkins / Coleman / White / freshmen) should also be improved.
S: I don’t expect a breakthrough from Redfield, but he won’t be worse, right? Tranquill, Sebastian, and Shumate all have similar skillsets (+ against the run, potential – in coverage) but going to single high safety looks may help significantly.
It seems like most of the writers seem to think that there might not be as much high end talent, but there should be more steady talent (and no black holes). I’ve obviously been in the camp that losing our stars is going to mean that this defense takes a step back. I certainly hope that the increase in experienced depth means fewer big plays given up; but my concern will still be that BVG is a high-risk, high-reward guy coordinator; and without the studs to make the highlight reel plays, we could be looking at a defense taking a lot of risks with little payoff.
That being said, if he truly is overhauling things this year, who knows what could happen. Or, maybe some guys have breakthrough years (Redfield and Morgan finally flip a switch, Jarron Jones stays healthy, Daelin Hayes shows up as a 3rd down beast, Crawford is a ballhawking machine, Trumbetti shows up and does anything, etc.). So maybe these articles are selling me on the defense’s potential a bit. Now lets see if BVG puts guys in position to make plays.
I think the roster is in a better position in terms of depth right now than it has been in probably 20 years. We’ve certainly had better individual players at times, and even better front-line players – the 2012 starting defense without question was better than what we have any right to expect from this group of guys right now. But the 2012 starting defense was it – there was nobody behind them. Same on offense.
Two things about that – we’re in a better position if someone gets hurt, and guys are also under constant pressure to perform. I’m not as worried about free safety as I was last year because either the light will go on for Max or Studstill will take his spot. We’re still thin at a few spots, sure, but there are precious few positions that don’t have a legitimate playing time threat for underperformance right now.
The other main thing that interests me is whether BVG actually makes the tweaks he has talked about, mostly switching to more single-high safety looks and simplifying the safeties’ responsibilities. If he does that, and Max plays more naturally, Tranquill does his Swiss Army knife thing, and Luke and Crawford are up to the challenge in man coverage, this defense could do some things. That’s a number of ifs, but not insurmountable ones.
Agree, we are much more well-rounded. That’s part of my problem; I’ve never really seen a well-rounded Irish team, so it’s weird for me to try to assess just how much the depth helps offset the potential lack of star power.
As far as free safety, I don’t find it incredibly comforting to think we’re either relying on Max turning a corner (it seems like he’s been trying to turn that corner for ages) or Studstill. I absolutely love that the staff (and the media) have been raving about him, but he’s still a true freshman and 3 star recruit (yes I know, criminally underrated but some people obviously weren’t impressed). If BVG really does take away a ton of the decision making and simplify things, I’ll be less concerned about this position. I just don’t know that I trust BVG to make such a drastic overhaul (and if he does make the change, how quickly does he abandon it if Texas strings together 2 or 3 straight scoring drives).
How much payoff have we really had over the past couple of years, though?
I could be wrong, but it has just felt like we’ve been getting burned without forcing as many turnovers as we should or getting to the QB as often as we should. It’s felt very high risk/small reward.
Yeah, that part has kinda sucked. Maybe more athletic blitzers (sorry Joe) will help, as will another year of tutelage under Keith Gilmore. But for the most part our pass rush has been not only non-existent, but counter productive – blitzing linebackers who literally NEVER get home leaves enormous voids in the formation and plenty of time to find them.
We need something to happen with pressure to ease up the big plays and lack of turnovers. Without that, forget it.
That’s been the whole problem – you need turnovers and sacks to balance out (and ideally outweight) the times you get burned, and the last two seasons have not come close. On one hand we haven’t had great turnover “luck” in terms of recovering the number of fumbles that should be around 50/50, intercepting the average % of deflected passes. On the other, we really haven’t created a lot of these opportunities – few forced fumbles, and few situations where the LB/DB were in place to really contest a receiver.
So either we get better there (possible, maybe not probable) or change philosophy a little bit – maybe the stated coverage changes are a sign of this, or maybe they’ll be abandoned on first failure. The overarching tone by BVG and BK regarding the defense has been more focused on executional improvement and staying the course, so I think that’s the less likely scenario.
/Joe Schmidt runs directly into a guard, again
TENOO-TAH 2.0
Between personnel and BVG, this group has me hugging my knees until it proves that I shouldn’t be so nervous about it.
About everything that could go wrong last year did, and it didn’t turn out all that bad. Maybe things will go great this season. It’s not riddled with major weak links or anything. But I’m nervous.
Y’all have me walking back out on the ledge again. Great write up Eric. Great comments guys. I just have to admit to myself, that I’m a koolaid drinker. Every year, I try to go into that year cautiously and not insanely optimistic. Especially in regards to the defense. Then I read your articles and comments and find myself gleefully skipping along the edge, heedless of the dangers and risks.
So, once agin, this koolaid is delicious guys.
I think that could be a tagline for our site. Hmm…
Well I’m god for one every couple of years.
Bruce Almighty?
Next season, understudy Russell Knox takes over for Sean Hayes.