This is a big year for preserving redshirts at Notre Dame. Due to the injuries suffered in the 2014-15 seasons we have seen the amount of redshirts saved go down in recent years from 58.3% in 2013, to 54.1% in 2014, and 52.1% last season.
The Irish were able to get some of that eligibility back with sophomore redshirts placed on Jay Hayes and Justin Brent so hopefully those pay dividends down the road. With just over 2 weeks left until the season opener at Texas let’s look at how the 2016 freshmen class is shaping up for playing time.
QB Ian Book
RS Odds: 85%
Not much has been said about Book during fall camp but we know he’s so far back from playing time as a 4th-stringer that you could forgive anyone for forgetting he’s on the roster. Still, the door for some snaps remains open as long as Kelly & Co. stick with their plan to give Brandon Wimbush a sophomore redshirt. The only way for Book to see the field is a scenario where either Kizer or Zaire get hurt and there’s a need for some garbage time snaps, and even then the staff might choose walk-on Montgomery VanGorder instead. It all depends upon how serious they will take Book’s eligibility as he’s buried on the depth chart today and the competition only grows with Davis and Jurkovec committed for the future.
RB Tony Jones
RS Odds: 35%
It’s been a perfect storm for Jones who swung from a probable redshirt to probable playing time after roughly a dozen practices. For one, he came in ready to play with good size, quick feet, and good hands. But he also gained a lot from the foot injury to Brent and the hamstring issues slowing Josh Adams down. This essentially provided backup reps early in camp. Kelly did say during Media Day that Jones was unlikely to play that much but he can bring value on special teams and is likely to get a few carries somewhere during the long season.
RB Deon McIntosh
RS Odds: 90%
The “Lil Apple” (I’m so sorry) came in at 180 pounds and with the lack of depth was immediately moved to wide receiver where he’s made some plays down field in camp but isn’t getting enough reps overall to play a factor in 2016. He’s also been practicing on the outside, too. His long-term prospects are probably best suited for the slot if he’s staying at receiver. The only way he sees the field this fall is if he’s a threat as a special teams return-man.
WR Kevin Stepherson
RS Odds: 10%
From unheralded recruit offered at the Irish Invasion to playing before two much more highly rated classmates? That looks like the future for Stepherson who has been bouncing between the slot and “X” outside position during camp. He might be the 4th receiver coming out of August, too. Only an injury is likely to keep him off the field.
WR Chase Claypool
RS Odds: 30%
Everyone has been excited about Claypool’s rawness and athleticism. He’s been running with the 3’s at the “W” position and isn’t in a great spot to grab playing time as we inch closer to the season. Although, snaps could come quickly if he improves and Miles Boykin isn’t consistent enough.
WR Javon McKinley
RS Odds: 35%
McKinley is largely in the same boat as Claypool–he’s shown some flashes and isn’t that far away from snaps but he’s mostly been outside of the two-deep and even sharing reps with Claypool at times. Recently, McKinley was moved over to his (likely) long-term “X” receiver position but that might be harder to grab playing time than anywhere else. Still, he’s a possible excellent special teams player and return man.
OL Tommy Kraemer
RS Odds: 55%
The “best true freshman lineman” to come to Notre Dame per Kelly himself is so close yet so far away from making an impact. Kraemer was briefly in the mix for the starting right guard duties early in camp but hit a wall and has settled in as the backup right tackle. Without injuries he may not be needed, however, he’s still a threat to start with the fragility of McGovern and if the staff deems Kraemer more worthy of playing time than Bivin during the season.
OL Liam Eichenberg
RS Odds: 85%
At best, Eichenberg is the 5th tackle on the team behind McGlinchey, Bars, Bivin, and Kraemer. Not a bad spot for someone in his first dozen practices for the Irish but things will have to go completely off the rails for him to play.
OL Parker Boudreaux
RS Odds: 95%
The native of Florida dealt with viral meningitis which landed him in the hospital during the middle of summer workouts. He’s much better now but has been buried on the third-team all fall camp.
DE Daelin Hayes
RS Odds: 10%
The recruiting class’ top defender has not disappointed during camp, and what’s better, he’s been able to stay healthy and have no shoulder issues. Hayes has slowly been increasing his reps against the first-team and will now seriously challenge for snaps with the ankle sprain to Jay Hayes.
DE Julian Okwara
RS Odds: 80%
Line coach Keith Gilmore stated during Media Day that Okwara was likely to play this year. I’m not buying that just yet. He’s the 4th weak-side end right now and all 3 players above him should be back next year. No need to rush things.
DE Khalid Kareem
RS Odds: 65%
Here is going to be one of the tougher decisions this season. On the one hand, Rochell is going to play so much on the strong-side that no one is going to get even decent reps. Yet, the Irish will lose Rochell next year and Bonner hasn’t solidified himself as a next-in-line type of starter. That could mean Kareem sees time in 2016 to gain experience, however little.
DE Ade Ogundeji
RS Odds: 95%
Raw, under-sized, and not needed for 2016.
LB Jamir Jones
RS Odds: 60%
It’s been a quiet fall camp for the multi-faceted former high school star. He has the body type and athleticism to excel on special teams if they deem he’s ready. At linebacker it’s not happening this year and there is still doubt whether he sticks at this position long-term. A redshirt year to figure out more is a good idea.
LB Jonathan Jones
RS Odds: 70%
For someone receiving third-team reps at middle linebacker Jones has turned some heads in camp. Still, he’s under-sized and with 3 or 4 other players able to play Mike and he has time to learn. Nonetheless, he’s pretty filled out for his height and like many freshmen could be a valuable special teams player.
CB Donte Vaughn
RS Odds: 45%
At times, Vaughn has been one of the most impressive freshman in camp. His size and skills at corner have amazed which leads one to believe he’s definitely seeing the field. I do think the hype will recede a little bit as we get closer to the season. For one, as much as they’re talking a big game this August the Irish have not been a defense to employ a bunch of different corners. Even the 4th corner can find himself sitting on the bench for a month straight or more. We’ll see how Watkins and Butler come back from injury. I wonder if Vaughn’s redshirt will be burned a few weeks into the season depending on those player’s recoveries.
CB Julian Love
RS Odds: 45%
Love is right there with Vaughn knocking on the door except from the backup nickel position. The big question is if push comes to shove that he’s really next man in if Crawford gets hurt. If not, Love can likely redshirt unless he’s needed on special teams. And I expect him to be among the top freshman candidates for special teams no matter what he’s doing at corner.
CB Troy Pride
RS Odds: 75%
I thought for sure that Pride would come in and shoot up the depth chart. With Watkins and Butler sidelined for camp I was definitely confident that Pride would be firmly in the mix. Alas, some players take a while to adjust. At any rate, Pride is a bit small at 180 pounds and could use a year in the weight room.
S Devin Studstill
RS Odds: 5%
Things were getting a little worrisome as Studstill was missing significant time during fall camp with a hamstring issue. An upperclassman with experience could overcome missing several practices but that’s a tough hill to climb for most true freshmen. Not to worry, Studstill has recovered and is on track to play a lot.
S Spencer Perry
RD Odds: 65%
If Perry didn’t enroll early this would be a much easier redshirt decision for Notre Dame. However, the depth at strong safety is still a long ways away from being sorted out and as we know Drue Tranquill’s health can be a concern. Ideally, Perry could be lumped in with the likes of Claypool and Jamir Jones as big athletes who need more time to settle into a position but he could also help the team playing on special teams and spending a season trying to make the two-deep.
S Jalen Elliott
RS Odds: 80%
One of the most versatile athletes in the class hasn’t been able to make a big move during fall camp. He’ll still be an interesting case to watch through the early portion of the season. Once he “gets it” more with the intricacies of playing safety some are expecting a multi-year starter. I’d be happy stashing him away for a year to add some size and seasoning.
S D.J. Morgan
RS Odds: 95%
Morgan is a big-body who is probably as much of a long-term project as any of the freshmen. He’s a lock to redshirt.
With those odds:
Buyer of Book and Eichenberg (i.e. will redshirt)
Seller of Kraemer and Jones (i.e. won’t redshirt)
ps – I am not a robot. I am not a robot. I am not a robot. I am whirr-pop-poof. Malfunction Malfunction Malfunction.
In retrospect, who were the most surprising redshirts and redshirt burns from last year?
Excluding Jay Hayes, that is.
I would guess one of the bigger freshman surprises/redshirt burns last year was Nick Coleman. He was the second lowest rated non-K. Of course if not for Crawford injury (could say surprise RS) then he might have RSed.
I personally thought that Bilal and Boykin would play ST. They seem like the type of guys with speed and size to contribute there, but EqStB took that role. Really glad Bilal managed to save one as our LB recruiting has been thin.
On signing day people might have expected Barjas to contribute as a frosh, top 150 player, LBs didn’t have great depth, but fall practice reports made it pretty clear he would RS. Wimbush was another guy that looked like a RS on signing day, but when Golson left, 3rd QB was probably going to get some snaps and a lot of people thought he might surpass Kizer.
Overall though the freshman class wasn’t super surprising. Basically all 4 stars played a bit (other than OL, Barajas, Bilal, Boykin) and all 3 stars RSed (other than Coleman, Yoon).
What position does this Odds kid play, and how many injuries will we have before we burn his redshirt in game 11 this season?
I think Book is a lock to redshirt. If it is garbage time, I think they go with MVG, if they NEED another QB, I think they throw in Wimbush.
I don’t see much of a point in redshirting skill positions. WR/RB aren’t guys that tend to stick around for a 5th year when they are really good, and we have been recruiting well enough, that it is getting tough to keep a 5th year who isn’t great. Would I be super excited to have FC Goodman on the team this year? Not really, even with the lack of experience. And I would’t trade Chris Brown’s 1 catch as a frosh for a 5th year (if he would have come back).
I would love to see Claypool take a redshirt and switch to defense, but if he stays at WR, I would rather him play every ST unit than redshirt.
I think Wimbush’s redshirt is more valuable than Book’s, honestly. Book is probably going to be a backup throughout, with Wimbush ahead of him and Davis and Jurkovec in the pipeline.
I agree with you completely on not redshirting skill positions. We’re so conditioned to needing depth anywhere that we’re nearly obsessed with preserving redshirts, but the reality is that just about any corner, receiver, or running back who’s good enough for you to want back for a fifth year would never actually take it. Let them get their feet wet now.
And I think Claypool is going to surprise some people – I think we’ll see genuine offensive production out of him this year, in addition to special teams work. Some of the catches he has made in camp are just absurd.
Say QB1 is out for MSU (or any close game) and QB2 goes down in the first half. Would you put Book in over Wimbush?
One or two plays you get MVG. But with meaningful snaps on the line, you don’t think BK would blow Wimbush’s RS?
I know BK has pretty solid job security, but winning today is always more important than winning in 3 years. I just don’t see anyway that Book burns his RS. I think BK would probably play MVG over Book irregahdless, as he has always valued guys who are more familiar with the system.
IOW, in regards to a red shirt for Ian, you can Book it?
I don’t understand not wanting to trade a whole 5th year of Brown in place of 1 catch as a frosh. Can you say more about that? It seems you would do that trade everytime. What am I missing? Is it just that it is hard to gauge that as a frosh whether he would stick around for a 5th year?
It’s because the catch was awesome – https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3Y05X0PF4ws
Ahh without even looking – now I remember. I forgot he only had one catch. So this isn’t a universal thing just a “Brown” thing. It was not only awesome but HUGE in terms of showing that we could play with the big boys.
That catch was specific to Brown, but in general, there aren’t many instances where blowing someone’s RS isn’t worth it. I feel the same way about Okwara, who played a lot of ST in 2012.
The most lamented blown RS I can remember is Schwenke because he blew it for one game because Tuitt got suspended. But he was just a role player.
Basically if you get red shirted, it is usually because you aren’t good enough/ready to contribute as a freshman. I think Frank Beamer is the coach who said the only one who determines if a player red shirts is the player himself.
The instances where a really good player red shirts are rare because very few position groups in all of college have the quality depth to keep really good players off the field.
I am going to attempt to list the 5th year players, vs the ones who left with eligibility. But this is just from memory, so not sure how accurate it will be (it is much easier to remember the guys who left early than the 5th years).
5th years: ZMartin, Watt, Fox, Calabrese, Utupo, Collinsworth, Grace, NMartin, Farley, JJones, Harrell
Left eligibility: Wood, Eifert, Nix, Tuitt, Daniels*, GAIII, Niklas, Golson*, Hegarty*, Stanley, Prosise.
Those 5ths were great to have because our teams weren’t super talented or deep, but outside the Martins and Watt, I don’t think any got drafted (Jones hopefully does). I definitely can’t remember the guys who didn’t even get offered a 5th year, but that number will continue to increase.
Looking at the 2012 class. The belief was Jones would have gone pro if he had a good season last year. He is also a counter example to RS for an extra years sake. People were expecting Russell to be gone after his JR year if he didn’t get suspended. Don’t think there is anyway Day would have stuck around if he RSed. Shumate probably and would be nice (but he was quite valuable in 2012). Harrell is a backup, nice to have but pretty meh.
I’m not saying Brown and Okwara wouldn’t be nice to have here, and they are the type of casualties due to depth that we won’t see much in the coming years, but neither of them got drafted (although maybe could have, especially Okwara with an extra year), so it isn’t like we lost a couple all-stars because they burned a RS for less than a starting role.
In conclusions. I would love it if we could RS everyone because our depth is great. But that doesn’t happen outside of the NCAA video games. I’m not about to cry because we blow a RS.
Oh yeah, and there is the fact that most players will get suspended for an entire season at some point, giving them a de facto RS, so why waste it on a year they are eligible to play.
Looks like Stepherson’s odds of redshirting just went way up…
And now with Redfield gone, Jalen Elliot’s shoot way down
And Jones will play and between Claypool/McKinley, and Vaughn maybe plays.