So we meet again, Dawgs. For just the second time ever and first time during the regular season Notre Dame will square off against Georgia. For the Bulldogs it’s a rare trip up north and a chance to notch an early-season victory on the road as an underdog.
The previous meeting in the 1980-81 Sugar Bowl was pretty cool for Georgia, they ended up winning their lone National Championship. For the Irish it was a weird season. Dan Devine announced it was his last season in the summer, the team got off to a 7-0 start, finally ascended to No. 1 in the nation, then tied Georgia Tech in Atlanta.
Georgia (+4.5) at Notre Dame
Notre Dame Stadium
South Bend, Indiana
Date: Saturday, September 9, 2017
Time: 7:30 PM ET
Television: NBC
Series: 1-0-0 Georgia
The Irish fell at USC in the finale only to put together a fine performance in the Sugar Bowl. The Dawgs were held to 127 yards on 65 plays (LOL, dumb early 80’s offenses) but won 17-10 thanks largely in part to Notre Dame bungling a kickoff and allowing Georgia to recover the ball near the Irish goal line.
In 2017, the Dawgs are in a weird place. Cool uniforms, top recruiting, Uga the bulldog, weather, and women. Yet, they only have 2 conference titles and 2 major bowl wins since 1983. Notre Dame fans know all too well what overrated means and perhaps there will be some bonding in the tailgating lots Saturday morning and afternoon?
Former Georgia defensive back Kirby Smart is in his second season as head coach at his alma mater after a thoroughly mediocre 2016 (8-5 overall, 4-4 in SEC, 68th in S&P+) and seeking the school’s first SEC East division title since 2012. Following the Gators’ performance last Saturday the division is now there for the taking.
3 Matchups to Watch
Georgia’s Offensive Line vs. Notre Dame’s Front Seven
Things haven’t been great for the Dawgs offensive line. Senior Isaiah Wynn comes in with 27 career starts but is just 6’2″ and was moved from left guard to left tackle this off-season. Redshirt junior Kendall Baker looks like he’ll be making his first career start at left guard. Junior center Lamont Gaillard will be making his 14th start while senior Dyshon Sims (5 career starts) looks to be losing his spot at right guard to redshirt freshman Solomon Kindley, also making his first career start coming off injury from week one. The line is rounded out by true freshman right tackle Andrew Thomas, a high 4-star from Atlanta.
Notre Dame absolutely has to win more battles than it loses against this line.
Notre Dame’s Linebackers vs. Jake Fromm
If I’m Mike Elko I’m not blitzing very often on passing downs. I know Fromm is a true freshman starting his first game at night in South Bend but he’s bound to get the ball out of his hands quickly, and showed a strong propensity for doing so against Appalachian State. The Dawgs even went up-tempo and pass-heavy in his first series last week–he’ll definitely be ready to make quick and smart reads.
Delivering plenty of run blitzes on early downs and making sure Georgia’s run game is stymied has to be key. On passing downs flooding the short and intermediate passing lanes with linebackers could be crucial. Georgia has two really good tight ends in Isaac Nauta and Jeb Blazevich, surely Fromm will look to them often. I have a feeling one of the Irish linebackers will pick up an interception on Saturday night.
Brandon Wimbush vs. Georgia’s Secondary
Michael B’s advanced stats post from Wednesday makes a great point about this weekend’s matchup: For as much focus as there will be on running the ball for both teams this may come down to who gets put into the most passing downs. In this regard, Wimbush is nearly as untested as Fromm and the Irish quarterback wasn’t great against Temple when using his arm to pick up third down conversions.
Everyone can see Wimbush making big plays with his feet but can he deliver 4 or 5 key strikes in critical moments against a tough defense with maybe a bit of a weakness in its secondary with (likely) two corners injured and unavailable?
2 Stats to Consider
82nd S&P+ Rushing Offense
In 2014, Nick Chubb exploded for 1,547 yards to become a 1st-team freshman All-American, while fellow classmate Sony Michel got some extended playing time after Todd Gurley went down with injury. The next season, Chubb was off to another hot start before missing more than half the season with a knee injury. In his place, Michel had a solid but not spectacular 1,161 yards.
Since 2016, the Georgia run game hasn’t been the same and they were a shocking 82nd last year in S&P+ rushing. Chubb hasn’t reached 100 yards in 9 out of his last 14 games while his rushing average has dropped by 2 yards as an upperclassman. Michel has remained a very good but not enormously productive tailback.
Appalachian State has one of the more experienced and best front sevens in the Sun Belt but Georgia only had a rushing success rate last Saturday of 40.4% which isn’t a great sign and a massive 20% lower than what any self-proclaimed great rushing attack should total against a G5 opponent. They were able to rip off runs of 23, 24, 28, and 44 yards but averaged just 2.83 yards on all other carries.
28th S&P+ Rushing Defense
The bad news for Notre Dame (and good news for Dawgs fans!) is that one of the country’s top G5 offenses in App State was only successful running the ball on 9 out of its 28 non-sack carries last week. Limiting an opponent to 32.1% is pretty fantastic. Even better for the Bulldogs defense was that Mountaineer running back Jalin Moore only had 3 successful carries (a pair of 4 yard gains on 1st down & one 22-yard carry to end the first half) out of 13 attempts. The rest of the successful App State rushes came from the quarterback, including one from the backup in garbage time.
In other words, be prepared for this to be the best run defense Notre Dame faces this season.
1 Prediction
So, the majority of the country is looking at this game from the angle of true freshman quarterback Jake Fromm making his first start following the knee sprain to sophomore Jacob Eason on an out-of-bounds hit against App State. Fromm is the local kid (from 2 hours south of Athens) and built in a muscular 6’2″ frame similar to Brandon Wimbush, while also being similarly ranked to the Irish QB as a recruit coming out of high school. Fromm pretty much received rave reviews in the off-season although no one took it too seriously when there were whispers he could start over Eason.
How did Fromm perform in his first career snaps? Here are all of his pass attempts, a pair of PI penalties included:
The pattern is pretty clear: Get the ball out quickly and keep everything short and mostly to the sidelines. That’s typically the true freshman way of going about things. In total, he performed admirably with 3 really good throws but more than anything showed a ton of composure coming in at such an inopportune time in a scoreless opener.
I don’t know if Eason would’ve played better against the Irish this weekend. However, he was starting to get the feel of Christian Hackenberg 2.0 and with his injury it’s entirely possible Fromm takes the job from here on out and we never see Eason in a Bulldogs uniform again. Certainly it would’ve been nice to square off against the cement-footed Eason. Although Fromm’s high school tape and stats suggest he’s not much of a runner he should be athletic enough to be an upgrade for Georgia in this department.
If you’re a Dawgs fan more athleticism + quick decision making + moxy might equal a better offense for Georgia.
The start for Fromm paired with Chubb & Michel may get the headlines but for me this game comes down to the Georgia defense. By God, Notre Dame may have actually developed a tough running game this off-season and legitimately thinks it’s the identity moving forward. What’s going to happen if the Dawgs are able to seal up the rushing attack early and often?
I can’t bring myself to trust Notre Dame’s defense and that’s a scary place to be knowing at worst Georgia’s defense should have a solid game. I really don’t think the odds are terrible that the Irish lay a huge egg on defense.
However, it’s also really hard to shake the feeling that this has to be a program win for Notre Dame. A home game, at night, coming off a confident opener, now facing a true freshman quarterback. Georgia’s defense could very well carry them to a 10-2 record but the Irish have to win. It’s not quite do or die time yet, still a loss here is a serious derailment and even a 5-1 start won’t look all that impressive by late October. Then, it’ll set up a game that is much closer to do or die against USC.
- WINNER: Notre Dame 28 Georgia 27
- VS. SPREAD (-4.5): Georgia
- OVER/UNDER (56.5): Under
- SPECIAL, ND RUSH YDS (168.5): Under
Great job Eric. I would say that outside of a real “do or die” situation (playoff spot with a win or something) this, to me, is about as close as it gets. I really feel like we need this win as a program. Like you said, home game at night against a premier opponent. This is the opportunity that has seemed to continually pass us by by losing. I’m feeling good about it. They’ll be ready for this one …
Hoping all this talk about a “weak” UGA o-line comes to be true, but still fearing the worst for such a matchup.
And to answer a question – ” What’s going to happen if the Dawgs are able to seal up the rushing attack early and often?”
Seems simple, Notre Dame will almost certainly lose if their own running game isn’t succeeding. The offense does look to be built around the run and the non-ESB weapons aren’t going to really hurt a defense until Stepherson gets back in 3 more games, IMO.
I’ve felt some dread for this game for a while, would love to be wrong. Should be a pretty even game, both teams look pretty similar, main difference might be one team has a better front-7 defense and that’s Georgia. Hopefully though ND finds a way to pull one out, but if not it’s not the end of the world, but probably is a march towards a 8-4/9-3 type year at best.
Sigh… Last year Georgia ranked 93rd in offensive S&P+, 82nd in rushing S&P+, 104th in Success Rate+, and 93rd in IsoPPP+. So they weren’t efficient or explosive, even with two of the best backs in the country and a slot guy who was good enough to get drafted as an early entrant. They lost three guys off that OL and replaced them with two guys who couldn’t beat them out last year and true freshman Andrew Thomas. They weren’t blowing App State off the ball by any means.
Their line is legitimately bad. Seriously, don’t fall victim to the “SEC teams are big and physical and scary!!!” groupthink. Their OL is B-A-D. Chubb and Michel are dangerous enough to break some tackles and take one to the house, but they have to do most of the work themselves.
Our front seven isn’t going against their front seven. I think our OL, TEs, and backs have a better chance of neutralizing their front seven than their OL, TEs, and backs have of neutralizing ours. And that’s with good TEs and backs for them, which means I think their OL is really, really bad. The numbers support that.
Thanks for the information, I do enjoy it.
Despite that inefficiency and non-explosiva that you cite, Chubb still had a 1130 yard season on 5.0 yards/carry and his two backups combined for 1203 yards on 5.7 yard/carry last season. And that is against some scary SEC defenses. Compare that to the ND front and I am bracing for the worst, even if perhaps I shouldn’t be based on S&P+ and Success Rates…I’m just seeing and fearing 150+ total yards against on the ground which could spell doom.
I tend to think since they run more than throw- and are committed to the running game, maybe that hurts the rates and advanced stats. I’m just concerned about them churning out enough to keep the defense on the field and wear down what’s an already thin unit of starters with untested (or just bad) reserves, for the most part. We shall see.
I do share your optimism that offensive Notre Dame should be able to do the same thing right back. Like I said, I’m expecting a close, tight, entertaining and probably stressful game. It should be a great one, hopefully one to come out on the right end on.
The rates and advanced stats were hurt because Georgia wasn’t very good at running the ball. If you want to look at counting stats, Chubb had good numbers overall last year but most of his efforts were unremarkable:
Good games: UNC – 6.9 ypc, South Carolina – 7.6 ypc, Louisiana-Lafayette – 6.8 ypc, TCU – 8.4 ypc
OK games: Nicholls State – 4.0 ypc, Ole Miss – 4.8 ypc, Kentucky –
4.1 ypc, Auburn – 4.4 ypc, Georgia Tech – 4.0 ypc
Bad games: Mizzou – 3.3 ypc, Tennessee – 3.0 ypc, Vandy – 2.5 ypc, Florida – 2.2 ypc
Against those “tough SEC defenses,” he did what you might expect. Michel had a similar breakdown. So did Brian Herrien, their third leading rusher last year. It wasn’t their fault, their line was terrible. Even in last year’s train wreck of a season, Josh Adams went over 5 ypc six times and went under 4 ypc four times, compared to four and four for Chubb (in an extra game!).
Again, I’m not saying they won’t be able to run the ball on us at all, or that our victory is guaranteed. Just that there’s not a very strong case based on their actual performance to say that they’re going to steamroll us in the running game.
But I think he mentioned that they took a step back in those areas this year. And if you think that Temple would probably beat Appy similarly to how we beat Temple, you have to kind of respect our performance more than GA against App. If GA had come out and just run roughshod all over the Mountaineers, then I would be a little more worried, however their ineffectiveness outside of just a few bursts is documented. I’m thinking our LB and DL is at least good enough to keep those two backs in check tomorrow.
Appalachian State is a good team, and probably not as strong as Temple this year (not close last year, but it’s not last year). But as you note, Georgia ran for just 5.0 ypc overall and 2.8 ypc aside from those big gashes. They also gave up 4.3 per carry and had eight penalties. There are big question marks in several places for them.
I think they’re going to have some big runs, just because Chubb and Michel are so good in the open field. Their problem is getting to the open field. Meanwhile, our guys see this:
Yep – to Brendan’s point, check out the heat map in this great post from where Chubb hit first contact last year compared to Fournette. He’s constantly getting touched right at or behind the LOS. It’s a testament to him that he has decent YPC in spite of it, but the OL doesn’t figure to have made dramatic strides from last year with the personnel changes they’ve been through. https://www.cfbfilmroom.com/2017/08/13/nick-chubb/
What if the holes aren’t that big this week? Using last year’s stats doesn’t account for the fact that UGA brings back virtually every starter on defense. That’s pretty significant. All those guys should be better by virtue of the fact that they have more experience and are one year older.
Of course I don’t expect the holes to be that big. But we’re discussing comparative offensive line play, and Georgia’s is terrible while ours is most definitely not.
Their OL is awful. I can’t bang this drum enough, and people don’t want to listen because ESS EEE SEE or something, I guess. They were awful last year, and they showed no signs, either in camp or in their opener, of being any better this year. Chubb and Michel are really good, but they’re not Barry Sanders. They need some daylight at least.
I agree that their defense should be better this year, but the reality is that their defense was good but far from untouchable last year. The perception of Georgia doesn’t match the reality. They’re not Alabama. They’re a beatable team that has holes we should be able to exploit. Will we exploit them well enough to win? I don’t know, but I can’t stand the “we’re going to get steamrolled because they’re so amazing at everything” line of thinking. I get that ND fans suffer from PTSD, I just want everyone to look critically at this Georgia team and not assume they’re awesome just because they’re from the SEC.
I get the vibe that people are more concerned about ND’s history of laying eggs in big games than they are of Georgia’s perceived ability.
I get that their OL is . . . not the best.
But we aren’t throwing a star studded D-Line either. Two of the guys in our rotation are freshman at positions where you need to play manball.
IMO its okay to be worried bout several aspects of this game, particularly given our proclivity to lose almost every big game against legitimate opponents in my whole lifetime (sans Oklahoma 2012). For that reason alone I can’t predict the Irish.
MSU 2012? Utah ca. 2010? LSU 2011? Stanford 2012? Also we were MSU’s only loss a few years ago when they won the rose bowl.
MSU in 2012 went 6-6
Utah was a big win for us, but not on the rational radar. And that team went to the Las Vegas bowl.
LSU in 2014 was a big win, but the team was 7-4.
Stanford 2012 is a good one.
I think Arizona State in 2013 and Texas 2015 would constitute some national hype too, to your point.
Still, in this century we have beaten one top 5 team and gotten blown out (or squarely beat) in all of our major bowls. I just think its fair for a 24 year old like me to be a bit worried about not showing up.
As much as I enjoyed each in the moment, beating Utah and winning the Motor City Bowl do not count as big wins, in basically any circumstances.
Kelly has 3 big wins (defined as impressive wins that had national implications) in 7 years: Stanford and USC in 2012, and MSU in 2013 (not particularly big for ND, but ultimately very important nationally). That’s it; that’s the list.
2012 Oklahoma pretty clearly belongs in that list too. Also, 2014 Stanford wasn’t a “big” win in hindsight, but at the time it was a very big deal. Probably some others that fit that description as well.
Not that it really changes your point, of course. We have three big wins in 2012 and three razor-thin losses – 2014 FSU, 2015 Clemson, and 2015 Stanford – as our best performances in the last seven seasons. Not much to hang one’s hat on.
2012 Oklahoma is a bad miss by me. Good call.
Also, in fairness to BK, there is of course something to be said for beating (mostly) the teams you should: at least that’s better than his immediate predecessors. I think that’s what broke my spirits with regard to him last year: 4-8 violated that implicit contract that something like that wouldn’t happen.
ND DL is better than Appy State, true or false? Look at the pressure Appy got on GA in that game.
I would like to assume thats true, but I have no idea.
I’m not saying our D-Line cant play well or Georgia will manball us. I’m just tying to point our that their fans can look at our D-Line and do the same criticisms we make against their OLine: Hayes (young), Hayes (couldn’t get on the field until this year), Bonner (low rated recruit who has not done anything to warrant confidence) Tillery (okay), and no real proven backups.
I’m sorry I’m eternally pessimistic. Its a “can’t be disappointed if your expectations are low” type deal.
We both have questions, absolutely. Summing up my vomiting all over this comment thread – I think our strength (OL and backs) is better than or equal to their strength (front seven), while our weakness (DL) is considerably better than their weakness (OL). I have us winning 27-20, btw. A close win or loss or a big win wouldn’t surprise me. A big loss would.
Defense didn’t show me they could stop Chubb and Michel, and Fromm is serviceable. Georgia wins by 7, 28-21 or thereabouts. We just don’t know, 1 game for each team isn’t enough to really make any calls, but I think they’re a much better defense than we are, and with equal enough offenses, I think that a few big runs by Chubb and Michel will be the difference. I think we’ll run, but they’ll blanket EQ and we just don’t have any other consistent pass catchers yet to really move the ball well.
This will inevitably be downvoted because I’m not predicting ND wins by 20, but whatever–if you can’t see the difference between “what I think will happen” and “what I want to happen” then I can’t help you.
Also, Jake Fromm’s Twitter handle is “JakeFrommStateFarm.” A sense of humor like that is hard to hate. Hope he needs some insurance this weekend after being hit by the Hayes, Hayes, & Okwara Trucking Company.
Something to consider: Their defense was 32nd in S&P+ last year. Ours was 28th. We were helped by the NC State game, of course, but those rankings are close enough for the NC State effect to be insignificant.
They returned 11 starters from that defense, but one will be out and one will be at least limited – CB Malkom Parrish and CB Aaron Davis. Unfortunately for them, that’s also the shallowest position on their defense. They’re a bit undersized across the board in the secondary as well; their safeties are 6’0″ and 6’1″ and their top three available corners are 6’1″, 5’11”, and 5″10″, and nobody, including the safeties, is over 193 pounds.
Meanwhile, we return 7 starters from last year’s defense, with Jones, Rochell, Onwualu, and Luke moving on. Onwualu is the most painful of those losses but also the one most reliably replaced, with Tranquill stepping into the SAM/Rover role. I like our chances of 2017 Jay Hayes and 2016 Rochell being a wash, production-wise. Luke has essentially been replaced with Watkins, which looks at least like a wash and is potentially an upgrade. Jones… Well, I’ll just leave it at not being worried about replacing Jones.
They have more athletes, sure, and they’re certainly deeper at DT than we are, but it could well be that at the end of the day the defenses are more or less even.
I’m not going to downvote you, because concern over this game is quite reasonable. Even as optimistic as I am I’m not guaranteeing a win. I just reflexively feel the need to combat the idea that Georgia is some kind of offensive and/or defensive juggernaut that’s unstoppable. They weren’t last year, and they didn’t look that way in their first game this year either.
My concern isn’t that Georgia is that good. I’m just not convinced we are that good. I hope we are
This. And I don’t think this is do or die. Just 9-3 vs 7-5.
Sure, but 9-3 vs. 7-5 is BK vs. New Coach
How come no one has mentioned the fact that a certain BVG is no longer coordinating the ND defense? I think THAT is a significant factor in all of this. How many sacks did we have ALL of last year against some bad teams? Look at the changes that we made in the second half of the Temple game – they had 16 yards on 16 carries, I believe. Sure our defense sucked eggs for much of last year, but this is NOT last years defense.
Now, let me go and refill my big pitcher of Koolaid.
I do think it’s too early to have much confidence in any prediction, so I have no problem with the assessment. However, I will say that my read is that Georgia is weak to mediocre everywhere except RB and the front 7 on defense, whereas ND is solid to strong across the offense and in our front 7 as well with the only weakness being our secondary. I think we’re much more likely to be able to exploit their weaknesses than the other way around. Therefore not only do I think ND will win, I would take them against the spread as well.
I think you’re correct in that their defense is much better than ours, but I don’t think our offenses are equal. I’d give us significant edges at QB and OL, with maybe a much smaller proportional edge to UGA at RB and WR. I think there’s a lot to like about Fromm but we have such a small sample size to go from with the kid – basically a spring game where the defense was vanilla and a home opener. It wouldn’t be the first time we made a young QB look great, and I’m not saying he’s not the rare QB that can step in and be effective, but we simply don’t know, and I think a lot of folks are assuming something much closer to best case scenario for Fromm than worst.
I share your concerns though about EQ and other receiving threats stepping up. My hope there is that 1) we kept things very vanilla against Temple, and have some tricks up our sleeves and 2) they aren’t the biggest in the secondary, so the old “throw high passes to big dudes” strategy with EQ, Mack, Claypool, and potentially Boykin could do alright. I’m not sure those guys are all ready to be gamebreakers against that defense, but that’s the Kool Aid if you want to drink it.
The scary thing for me is if someone blinks first – either a big turnover, special teams blunder, big play given up – neither team is really built to come from back from behind, and both offenses can potentially shift into a pretty effective “game-control” run-heavy scheme. In recent years it’s been ND making those mistakes (puking while thinking about the last night game I attended, MSU last year) and I just don’t think this is a matchup where we can afford to go down 14+ points. If you’re looking for glass half full view, at least they probably can’t either.
Since when did being legitimately concerned about holes in our team automatically = downvotes?
There are at least three people you can ask…
Yea I was more commenting on that than your prediction
It may have been the invitation to downvote. That’s a pretty guaranteed way to get a few.
Heaven forbid anyone provide reasoned disagreement. I suppose it’s just me, but the only thing I’d downvote is something clearly out of site bounds–something inappropriate like racist or sexist comments, something like that. “Hey guys I don’t think we’re going to win by two TDs” apparently falls in that category for some people.
Guess I’ll stick to the game slacks. Sigh.
KG, you’ve always been hyper-dramatic. What was the purpose of your “this will be downvoted because I’m not predicting a win by 20 points” comment?
Also, Fromm’s Twitter handle is actually JakefromStateFromm.
Because it happens every time, and I don’t understand it? If I were ridiculously negative like what’s his name, Freneau or something, from the game threads a few seasons back, then I’d get it. I’m nowhere near that, but apparently I might as well be. A thumbs down comes across to me as pretty much a STFU. I don’t understand why anyone would say that, given what I posted. Perhaps in my time away I’ve missed how the site dynamics work, but it’s pretty discouraging of giving any opinion. And yes, thanks for the correction. The twitter handle is still funny.
You get downvoted a lot? I didn’t know that but don’t pay much attention to the thumbs.
Probably a good idea not to add your last comment if you’re worried about downvotes, though. Your prediction was fine.
Whenever I make a prediction or assessment, yes. I’m neither optimistic for the sake of being optimistic, nor pessimistic for the sake of being pessimistic. A “ND’s going to get killed because that’s what we do and we suck”? Sure, downvote the hell out of that, because it’s baseless and simply trolling. It seems that there’s a not insignificant number of people who feel the need to downvote anything that isn’t 100% positive. The frustrating thing is that I doubt it’s any of the regular people who’ve been around for the last X years, because they’d just reply. Yes, my comment baited it this time, so it was a poor decision to include that on my part. But I posit that it would have received 3-4 downvotes simply because I think UGA will win. 18S and previous incarnations has always been where I felt comfortable because we could be critical without being ridiculous like TOS, but also weren’t a bunch of homer “ND will win every game because!!!” types. So it’s not only personally annoying to get downvotes like that, but it makes me wonder if the commentariat has shifted to a bunch of the homer types. Your and others actual comments appear that it is not the case, and so I’ll try not to take it personally from now on, but I find it frustrating.
Even on the best of discussion boards, trolls exist. I’m sure someone out there downvotes just because you don’t like being downvoted.
In this particular case, I’m certain it was the “this will probably get downvoted” comment. Just look at Brendan R’s response. I’m sure that most of the people here enjoy your input – I miss the KG of old who wrote novels on even the most mundane of topics.
In general, I think most of the commentariat abide by the “downvote only when it’s out of bounds” principle. Sometimes people just think they’re being funny; I don’t think anyone is telling you to STFU, though I acknowledge why you would feel that way.
The KG of now has been too busy writing papers and giving presentations in Slovenia. Plus, after a 4-8 season, I didn’t really feel like following all the minutiae of the off season. Now that games are back, I’d like to participate in the discussion.
Trust me, I get it. I’m trying to walk the tightrope of enjoying this match-up while also simultaneously studying for a 4-hour Pathology/Pharmacology/Infection&Immunity examination on Monday. It’s tilted in the favor of studying until 6:30 CST.
Glad to have you back, you stubborn realist!
Where did you end up, may I ask? And class starts next week for me, so I get to enjoy one more full Saturday (while I write a review of an article for a journal, and polish up my own article for submission…)
Stayed in-state and am at University of Illinois (through University of Illinois in Chicago; like most things with Illinois, it’s a screwed up system).
Ended up being medical DQed from the HPSP route, so I’m just a normal student going a quarter-mill into debt. I’m a month into my second year now.
Thanks for asking! How is Princeton treating you?
Can’t complain. This semester is going to crush me, though. I’m not looking forward to dealing with 6th century documents. Guh.
I wouldn’t even know where to begin. I had to read the English translation of The Tale of Genji and it was painful. I’m sure you’ll be just fine, though.
Sorry to hear about your med DQ. Feel you on the debt.
This. Combination of Law School and 4-8 drew me away from the blogs.
But August comes around and “just when i thought i was out, they pull me right back in.”
I voted it down because it reminded me of when my wife says something and then qualifies it, clearly fishing for compliments. Then I tell her, no your opinion is actually baseless. Then I sleep on the couch. Bottom line, I’m getting nothing from KG tonight.
You never had a shot anyway.
Shooters Shoot,
For the record, i only downvoted you because you said you expected to be downvoted 😛 i disagree with your assessment, but there is plenty of evidence to support your view too.
Thumbs down just because you kind of asked for it! 🙂
Oh, and also I disagree that the offenses are “equal.” I’ll put our backs on par with theirs, maybe slightly below. I’ll put our QB above theirs, our receivers may be tied, our TE tied or above, and our line WAAAAAY above them.
When we have a receiver show up not named “Equanimeous” I’ll be convinced. Our QB’s legs are better than their QB’s legs, but he’s not got the best accuracy yet, and I expect at least a pick, maybe 2. That is just as likely on our receivers, though, see above. The right side of our line isn’t WAY above anything yet–they didn’t face the pass rush they will tonight.
No clue as to the outcome but, I am excited to watch.
Ga.changing two OL starters has to have Dawg fans nervous. WIN the turnover battle.
In that Sugar Bowl Hershel Walker had more yards rushing 150, than Georgia had total offense 127. Georgia completed one pass and ND had 4 turnovers not counting the “world’s longest onside kick”. One of the biggest “give away” games in ND history.
I dont know if it’s the homer in me, but I’m not loving this Fromm kid throwing. He looks off balance a lot in those clips and his OL is giving up a lot of pressure especially up the middle. So many rushed and odd throws. A couple of ducks in there that are just floating in the air. Hopefully Love and Co can get a pick or two and really seal this one for us.
Fromm is more or less a rich man’s Tommy Rees – he has a good release and good accuracy, but he has an average arm and limited mobility. Eason is less mobile but has a cannon. The main reasons many Georgia fans want Fromm, and I swear I’m not making this up, are that he’s from just down the road, he “just wins” (LLWS, state title, etc.), and he looks like Aaron Murray in uniform. You know, the kid they hated at the time for not getting them over the hump.
I definitely expect them to try a lot of three-step drop stuff with him. They’re not stupid, they know his limitations too. The key will be good coverage, quick pressure, and hands in passing lanes. If he can dink and dunk freely they can string together some drives, but if we get them into a lot of 3rd-and-8’s they’re going to be in trouble.
While hard to see for sure, it seemed like Fromm got to a second read maybe twice at most in all those throws. While quick throws can open things up, if the weak O-line doesn’t give him time so that he’s almost always throwing the first place he looks, I feel good about our ability to win the TO battle.
“Cool uniforms, top recruiting, Uga the bulldog, weather, and women.”
This is quite correct. During my fall break of freshman year, I went down to visit a buddy in Athens (they didn’t have that week off). I remember walking around and seeing all the, ahem, scenery, and I was like “why oh why did I not go to UGA?!?!” In the all’s-well-that-ends-well category, I’m now engaged to a UGA grad. She isn’t letting me watch the game with her.
I grew up in Atlanta and have many friends that went to UGA. Let’s just say there are many many examples of them out-kicking their coverage and zero that did poorly for themselves in the looks department.
You and your fiancee are both wise for not watching the game together.
“there are many many examples of them out-kicking their coverage”
it me
Nice article. Not sure how confident in a W i would be if you’re saying take the under on 168 rush yards (am i reading that correctly?). I think running game is absolutely critical for this win.
Yes sir, I think Wimbush is going to have to play really well.
I had a dream (maybe closer to nightmare) last night that ND gets forced into a lot of passing situations and Wimbush didn’t exactly shine. Hopefully that’s a reverse-jinx.
Nope, this is basically exactly how it played out. I should go to Vegas.
So we might be taking the ole Bobby D approach this weekend, eh? Give up short passing routes and try to prevent the big plays?
One thing that worries me about the quick throws is that we are just terrible at tackling in the secondary, and they have “make you miss” talent at RB and (presumably, given recruiting) WR. That might be something to watch for.
Listened to the II podcast and they kept trying come up with comps in the Kelly era to this game (msu 2012, Michigan and ou 2012), but I personally keep going back to the 2009 game at Michigan.
That game was the moment I knew it was never getting better no matter what happened with weis. This game is set up as a game Kelly has to win. Win and a 6-0 matchup vs USC is looming. Lose and even if you get to 5-1 for USC we’re Staring down an 8 win season. I hate to overstate it but this feels like a Kelly era defining game
I think that’s completely fair. In our staff chat room a month or so ago I basically said the same thing:
“It’s all about Georgia; for so many reasons, with recruiting being one of them, I hope the staff really goes all in on prep and strategy for that game. It’s kind of crazy to say this in year 8, but a lot of how Kelly’s tenure will be remembered could turn on that one game – I think it has the potential to start another spiral if it goes really badly, and it clearly has the potential to be the springboard to a great year if we win.”
Did we kick off yet???
Looking at these video clips of Georgia’s offense, I’m terrified. There’s literally 0 seconds between plays. Talk about tempo!
Ha! i went to hit the laugh reaction then i remembered we’re not on Facebook.
I agree that, since Lou left, we’ve regrettably acquired a reputation for cratering in big games (2012 regular season excepted). Well, you can’t get rid of that kind of reputation without winning big games. Thus, we should be happy we’ve got a chance to do just that (thanks to ND’s consistent scheduling of top teams).
When you think about it, we are set up well for this game. We’re playing at home against a relatively evenly matched team (Vegas thinks we’re actually 4-5 points better, which means that they’d still give us an edge in a neutral site game), where a victory will boost confidence immeasurably.
You can’t be a national power without winning the big games. This is a winnable game. Let’s go do it!
Does anybody think playing in South Bend is really worth 3 points? I’ve always viewed our home field advantage as just a lack of a road disadvantage. Maybe it’s different now. #injumbotronwetrust #upinfront
“Does anybody think playing in South Bend is really worth 3 points?”
Let me say this. This statement (i.e., the implication that ND Stadium is NOT an intimidating place for visiting teams) will be true until it isn’t. I recognize that many younger ND fans have rarely seen ND be absolutely dominating. Well, I’ve seen us be dominating, and when that happens, the crowd noise in ND Stadium (even back when it seated only 59,000+) was absolutely deafening (my four years were 1970-1973 – ND Stadium was an intimidating place to play as we lost only six games in four years, and only two at home).
In 1988, Michigan came to ND Stadium. They could not get a play off for the longest time because they were in the north end of the field, and the crowd was loud. The refs actually gave Michigan a couple of official time outs, and then called delay of game on ND (Michigan still got stuffed on that drive).
Go look at USC’s fan forums and read what their fans said about ND Stadium and how loud it was when ND beat them there in 2015 (I was at that game). That’s a more recent time and I’m surprised people have forgotten about it.
If we play well on Saturday night, and the game is close, or we’re winning, that Stadium will be rockin’. The crowd responds to how the team plays. I recognize that sometimes the crowd gets the team into it, but more often than not, the team gets the crowd into it.
So, let’s do it Irish! Both the team and the fans! Let’s show Georgia how it’s done.
That’s definitely true in the past with the intimidating crowds, I was thinking of the post 1993 era.
The crowd sounds good in spots for a given USC or Michigan game. But they always seem reactionary, if something good happens they will cheer. If the game is going poorly or neutral, they don’t inspire the team. Having a small student body relative to public universities absolutely hurts.
I’ve also seen too many BYU or Purdue players taunting the crowd while coming out of the tunnel. I don’t think they try that in a place like tiger stadium or happy valley.
Small student body relative to big universities, but virtually all of the students go to the football games, which is absolutely untrue of big universities.
From my limited experience, it can get loud. But it is also very common for the people behind me to yell “sit down” when its third and 7. I know a lot of people make that joke, but its unfortunately true.
Underthrown Shoelace and Cubsfan, thanks for kicking off a good thread.
As I have been noting, I’ve been actively studying and analyzing this issue since 1993, A few thoughts:
1, the crowd CAN still be loud. 2015 was that.
2, It doesn’t know how to be loud, effectively, any more, for a lot of reasons. Even 2015 USC showed that.
3, Tonight is in many ways a BK era defining game.
4, It is also a huge test for the ‘rron and its interaction with all the nodes that — ought!! — to feed into our folks so that they can do like we did vs Michigan in 1988!
I’ll compromise with the pessimists. Notre Dame will win somewhat comfortably (~10 pts.) but the win will look like 2015 Georgia Tech after Georgia loses a few more.
Behind USC, this feels like the most important game of the season.
Vegas thinks we’re better, advanced stats thinks we’re better, that terrifies me.
But I think we can do it, maybe in an ugly Stanford 2014-esque affair. ND 20 UGA 17. Yoon comes through and we bottle up their phallicly named rb and rb named like a girl just enough to win.
Vegas doesn’t think we’re better. Vegas thinks more ND fans are irrational enough to put money on the Irish. Always remember, lines are where the bookies think the betting public will split, not an actual predictor of the game.
I’d be interested to see how much irrational ND fans really sway the line (0.5 point maybe?). Even your most well-endowed casual gamblers have a hard time moving the needle. The sharps and big betters are going to dictate that line, otherwise people would be making a living betting against ND. But hey maybe they do!
Here’s some data since 2003, 78-96 is not good and in the bottom 10%, but I don’t think we’re talking about these lines being multiple points off.
https://www.teamrankings.com/ncf/trends/ats_trends/?range=yearly_since_2003
Three (Desmond, Eddie George, and Kirk) of the four picking games on Gameday chose us to win. Corso picked Georgia. So I guess that’s good for us, Corso’s a buffoon.
RTDBBK!!!