Today, the Top 30 countdown begins for The List of potential new Notre Dame head coaches. As of right now, Notre Dame is still being led by Brian Kelly and all indications are that he will be back for 2017 while being squarely on the hot seat during his 8th season in South Bend.

If you didn’t read the intro to this post (CLICK HERE) you should check that for the list of coaches who missed the cut and a full explanation of the grading system we’re using.

Remember, this isn’t a list where higher ranked candidates are necessarily considered “better” or it’s a situation where we’d stump for hiring the 7th ranked guy over the 13th ranked guy. We’re throwing the grades out there primarily as a platform for further discussion and to get a better idea of the strengths and weaknesses of all the candidates as we scout for the future.

Here now are the first 15 candidates:

coaches30-16

Coaches #30-16

Jeff Brohm, Western Kentucky, 45 years old
3-year F/+ Ranks: 17, 15, 50

The former Louisville quarterback had a cup of coffee in the NFL and first made a name as an assistant at his alma mater under Bobby Petrino while coaching his younger brother Brian Brohm. He bounced around a few different spots for a while before reuniting with Petrino at Western Kentucky where he was the offensive coordinator in 2013. When Petrino bolted for Louisville, it was Brohm who was given the job leading the Hilltoppers.

He only has one win over a Power 5 school and is just finishing up his 3rd year overall as a head coach. He was also preceded by Petrino and Taggart so it’s unclear how much of his fingerprints Brohm has over WKU right now. On the other hand, he’s 19-1 within league play over his last 20 games. Plus, the advanced stats love Brohm a lot and he’s done a terrific job developing quarterbacks (128 TD’s to 24 INT’s) in his tenure.

Jim McElwain, Florida, 54 years old
3-year F/+ Ranks: 24, 27, 49

On paper, there’s a lot to like about McElwain. He’s 28-9 over the last 3 years, turned things around quickly at Colorado State, worked under Saban, and has won the SEC East in both of his seasons at Florida. He’s also fielded elite defenses (Top 10 in S&P+ defense for 2015-16) while in Gainesville.

Offensively, the Gators have been a mess and it’s concerning they haven’t shaken the stink of the Muschamp era off yet. Especially since McElwain is supposed to be an offensive guru and quarterbacks coach. On the big stage, Florida has been pretty lackluster which has led to the feeling, despite divisional titles, that the Gators are still underachieving. In the event that McElwain were to have more success we’d also have to deal with the reality of a Florida coach leaving for South Bend, especially one who has spent all but 3 years of his life outside of the Midwest.

Bret Bielema, Arkansas, 46 years old
3-year F/+ Ranks: 55, 11, 9

It’s been 4 years since Beilema left Wisconsin and while he may not look it (that face, though!) he’s still really young. He won 10+ games on 4 separate seasons with the Badgers and won the Big Ten in each of his final 3 seasons in Madison. That was also a historically low point for the Big Ten while Wisconsin cruised through some easy schedules. Only 1 of Bielema’s seasons with Wisconsin finished in the Top 10 in the F/+ rankings.

Since he’s been at Arkansas it’s been more down than up. Although, the advanced stats loved the 2014-15 teams who, despite mediocre records, played a lot of teams close and had a few big upsets. This year, they’ve taken a big tumble thanks to a really leaky defense.

I have a hard time imagining Bielema fitting in at Notre Dame but the truth is he’s probably one of the best coaches in the country who has never won a major bowl game. That’s a back-handed compliment but a compliment still the same. He’s still young, and has had good-to-very good success at a pair of Power 5 programs.

James Franklin, Penn State, 44 years old
3-year F/+ Ranks: 10, 47, 45

Ewing Theory! Amazing what happens when you get rid of one of the most immobile college quarterbacks in recent memory. Franklin was precariously close from not making this list but has sky-rocketed up the rankings thanks to a surprisingly strong 2016 season. He now has legit claims of solidly rebuilding Vanderbilt and Penn State, both of which are looking pretty impressive given the state of each when he arrived.

One great year is a bit of a concern, though. Up until this year Franklin had averaged just over 48th nationally in F/+ over his previous 4 seasons. As noted above, he was going through some big rebuilding jobs so it’s difficult to hold that against him. However, Franklin didn’t exactly cover himself in glory while transitioning from Nashville to Happy Valley and as an eastern Pennsylvanian who has had some choice words against Notre Dame he’s unlikely to saddle up for South Bend anytime soon.

Say what you want though, he won the Big Ten East before Jim Harbaugh.

Mike Riley, Nebraska, 63 years old
3-year F/+ Ranks: 49, 36, 74

The oldest coach on our list and as a result the guy with the lowest ceiling. He’s this high on the list thanks to his experience and the fact that he’d be a great fit for Notre Dame: honest, humble, loved by his players, etc.

Oregon State has cratered since he left a couple years ago and he did win at least 9 games on 4 separate occasions with the Beavers. His brief time at Nebraska has been interesting where F/+ liked 2015 a lot better than 2016 even though the former had 4 more losses (all one-score defeats). There’s no doubt Riley would be about as non-flashy of a hire as possible and at his age and point of his career about as unlikely as anyone to leave for Notre Dame.

Paul Chryst, Wisconsin, 51 years old
3-year F/+ Ranks: 7, 32, 43

Chryst has popped up on many a Notre Dame fans’ radar lately. From a cultural standpoint he’d be a good–if not a little boring and mundane–choice with an extensive background in the Midwest. He’s also one of the hotter candidates out there having won 16 out of his last 19 games, toppled LSU to start the season, won the Big Ten West, and did something his predecessor at Wisconsin could only achieve once–a top 10 F/+ ranking this year.

However, Chryst was thoroughly mediocre while at Pitt and his 10-3 finish last year was 25 spots lower in F/+ than Notre Dame’s 10-3, for reference. There’s also the fact that his offenses have been sputtering in recent years (54th in S&P+ in 2016!) when that’s supposed to be his strength but he’s making a living off an elite defense this year. Hard to imagine that set up lasting much longer as the Dave Aranda coaching fades away.

Chryst would be in a good position to poach if he wasn’t born in Madison, played quarterback at Wisconsin, had two separate stints as an assistant in Madison, is now the head coach at Wisconsin, and has one of the easiest roads to a Power 5 conference title game.

Pat Fitzgerald, Northwestern, 41 years old
3-year F/+ Ranks: 45, 52, 71

I think if Notre Dame really put their hooks in Fitzgerald (likely, they won’t) he could come to Notre Dame. That’s why he’s ranked a touch higher than maybe some others would in the realistic category. After all, he is a former All-American linebacker at Northwestern with deep established roots in Evanston.

It’s amazing that Fitzgerald is still only 41 years old and finishing his 11th season as a head coach. It’d be nice if he left Northwestern and took a better job to see where is ceiling really is set. Anything higher than 60th in F/+ at Northwestern is a good job and he’s done that nearly every 3 years. Until he leaves Northwestern for a better job it’s not too likely Notre Dame will ever be truly interested.

Gus Malzahn, Auburn, 51 years old
3-year F/+ Ranks: 9, 33, 7

Malzahn was on the hot seat earlier this year but has seemed to do enough to keep his job–the Tigers are going to the Sugar Bowl believe it or not. Like a couple others we’ve reviewed he’s in a weird position of struggling a little bit with his offensive system that’s his baby yet he’s making a living with some really beastly defenses. He’s also done a terrible job recruiting quarterbacks to his system which is a red flag for the future.

Still, when his offense is up to speed he’s been a pretty good coach at the highest levels. In terms of Notre Dame he’d be such an odd fit with no experience anywhere close to Notre Dame’s sphere of influence. With his position and salary within the SEC I have him with one of the lowest realistic chances to coach the Irish.

Craig Bohl, Wyoming, 58 years old
3-year F/+ Ranks: 56, 115, 113

This guy’s on the list because he’s entirely obtainable and he built a multi-national championship winner at North Dakota State while he’s in the middle of a serious rebuilding effort at Wyoming.

The problem for him is that he’s on the older side and campus might burn down if Notre Dame were to hire someone from Wyoming. Even though he’s headed to the Mountain West Championship Game, he did finish up the regular season getting blown out by Bob Davie.

Larry Fedora, North Carolina, 54 years old
3-year F/+ Ranks: 26, 24, 70

Fedora’s at his second head coaching job and after doing some nice things at Southern Miss he got off to a really slow start at North Carolina. Then, last year’s 11-win season really caught a lot of people’s eye. Roughly in the middle of this season, Fedora’s name was being bandied about at several jobs higher up the food chain than North Carolina.

His star has somewhat dimmed recently, though. The Heels lost to NC State to finish the year and have been dropped 6 times over their last 14 games. Fedora has recruited and developed a really productive offense which is the bulk of his appeal. He’s also overseen some really shaky defenses (47th S&P+ defense in 2016 is a 3-year high) in Chapel Hill. Even though he has Power 5 experience under his belt he kind of feels like a homeless man’s version of Brian Kelly–and he’s a lot older than he looks, too.

Les Miles, Free Agent, 63 years old
3-year F/+ Ranks: N/A, 10, 22

Can you imagine? Obviously, Miles makes this list because of his experience and high level of winning. He was 95-24 during his first 9 seasons in Baton Rouge smack dab in the middle of the height of SEC power. He’s also the only coach on today’s list with a National Championship at the FBS level.

However, Miles is ranked last in being a realistic pick and a fit for Notre Dame. He’s the second oldest coach in our Top 30 by just a few months and might very well be completely lost in South Bend. Perhaps most damning, as the SEC West (and the SEC as a whole) was cooling off as the most dominant conference Miles finished 19-10 with few answers on a reloading process.

Miles would be without the annual bounty of Louisiana goldmine talent, without a top 5 (Chavis or Aranda) defensive coordinator, and no one has done less with more in college football on offense. Add in his eccentricity and I can imagine the only reason he’d even interview at Notre Dame is for the humor of what he’d be trying to sell.

Matt Rhule, Temple, 41 years old
3-year F/+ Ranks: 28, 45, 67

Just inside the Top 20 of our rankings and we finally reach a coach with a high realistic chance of coming to Notre Dame. I was one of the voices who thought Rhule was foolish to stick around at Temple following a successful 2015 with a handful of major losses on defense, including a few NFL Draft picks. Instead, he’s led a Temple team that hasn’t missed a beat.

Rhule is a defensive coach and that side of the ball has carried his Temple teams to a 19-7 record over the last two years, including an impressive 14-2 record in AAC play. You’d have to think with the recent struggles at Notre Dame his acumen on defense would be pretty enticing.

Still, his offenses have been really scattershot–and while he’s a young up and comer–only 4 years at Temple is really tough to swallow for an immediate jump to Notre Dame. Ideally, you’d like at least a couple years to flourish at a Power 5 school. A native of State College and former Penn State linebacker, Rhule has been linked to the Nittany Lion job since his national rise last year. That position doesn’t look like it’s coming open soon now but it’s hard to imagine Rhule staying in Philadelphia much longer.

Kevin Sumlin, Texas A&M, 52 years old
3-year F/+ Ranks: 25, 34, 42

The Swagcopter in South Bend? It doesn’t seem like a good fit at all but he did go to school in Indianapolis and later play college ball at Purdue. Like most SEC coaches his chances of leaving for Notre Dame are pretty slim. Of course, there’s also the possibility that he could be fired by A&M sooner rather than later.

Sumlin is kind of an intriguing choice if he could get John Chavis to come with him to Notre Dame and that seems unlikely. It’s also pretty evident that Sumlin’s ability to groom and maintain consistency on offense is vastly overrated and that feels like a roller coaster no Irish fan wants to ride.

He’s also sneaky old and hasn’t had a winning record in conference play since Manziel’s first season under center–that’s the last 4 seasons if you’re counting.

P.J. Fleck, Western Michigan, 35 years old
3-year F/+ Ranks: 18, 51, 56

We’ve arrived at the hot topic Fleck who is 14 month older than me. Depending on who you ask Fleck is either the next proven winner in the country or the dangerous flavor-of-the-month who hasn’t proven squat yet. Isn’t he somewhere in the middle?

For one, Fleck took over a completely moribund Western Michigan program with as little history of success as any team in the entire MAC. He’s now won 14 games in a row and is one win over Ohio (they won by 35 in their meeting last year and are 19.5 point favorites this weekend) from making a major bowl game. This also isn’t some run-of-the-mill good season for a MAC coach, either. According to F/+ it’s the best since that ranking has existed. This might be the best MAC team in a really, really long time.

On the other hand, we’re looking at an outrageously young coach with some (rumored) adulterous baggage (he divorced last year) and a personality that is going to be really, really difficult to pass through the interview process at Notre Dame. His bursting levels of energy are tempting in comparison to the more serene Brian Kelly as is his ceiling to date. That’s a tough trigger to pull if you’re Notre Dame.

Bobby Petrino, Louisville, 55 years old
3-year F/+ Ranks: 11, 39, 23

Petrino limped to the end of this season (squarely in the playoff hunt only to finish with ugly losses to Houston and Kentucky) but he’s built Louisville into one of the strongest ACC teams in just his third year back with the Cardinals. In addition, he’s also one of the best offensive coaches in the country and barring something insane this weekend about to have a Heisman quarterback on his resume.

Petrino’s also put together a really strong resume at the college level: A bowl win this season would be his 5th double-digit win season in 12 overall seasons. He’s won at least 9 games in 8 of those seasons, and at least 8 games in 11 out of 12 seasons. He’s won a major bowl game, has 3 Top 10 finishes, and went back-to-back seasons in the SEC West with a 21-5 record. Also a sneaky good stat: Petrino is 62-34 in league play across 5 different conferences.

From his motorcycle embarrassment and Falcons fiasco Petrino comes with his own baggage. If that doesn’t immediately cross him off the list his history of making a living off plenty of academic exceptions, transfers, and JUCO’s might do it anyway. Culturally, he’s spent most of his life in the backwaters of the western U.S. in addition to the southeastern part of the country–not exactly central casting for the Fighting Irish. But damn, if a few things about Petrino were different he’d be in the thick of this discussion.