Today, the Top 30 countdown begins for The List of potential new Notre Dame head coaches. As of right now, Notre Dame is still being led by Brian Kelly and all indications are that he will be back for 2017 while being squarely on the hot seat during his 8th season in South Bend.
If you didn’t read the intro to this post (CLICK HERE) you should check that for the list of coaches who missed the cut and a full explanation of the grading system we’re using.
Remember, this isn’t a list where higher ranked candidates are necessarily considered “better” or it’s a situation where we’d stump for hiring the 7th ranked guy over the 13th ranked guy. We’re throwing the grades out there primarily as a platform for further discussion and to get a better idea of the strengths and weaknesses of all the candidates as we scout for the future.
Here now are the first 15 candidates:
Coaches #30-16
Jeff Brohm, Western Kentucky, 45 years old
3-year F/+ Ranks: 17, 15, 50
The former Louisville quarterback had a cup of coffee in the NFL and first made a name as an assistant at his alma mater under Bobby Petrino while coaching his younger brother Brian Brohm. He bounced around a few different spots for a while before reuniting with Petrino at Western Kentucky where he was the offensive coordinator in 2013. When Petrino bolted for Louisville, it was Brohm who was given the job leading the Hilltoppers.
He only has one win over a Power 5 school and is just finishing up his 3rd year overall as a head coach. He was also preceded by Petrino and Taggart so it’s unclear how much of his fingerprints Brohm has over WKU right now. On the other hand, he’s 19-1 within league play over his last 20 games. Plus, the advanced stats love Brohm a lot and he’s done a terrific job developing quarterbacks (128 TD’s to 24 INT’s) in his tenure.
Jim McElwain, Florida, 54 years old
3-year F/+ Ranks: 24, 27, 49
On paper, there’s a lot to like about McElwain. He’s 28-9 over the last 3 years, turned things around quickly at Colorado State, worked under Saban, and has won the SEC East in both of his seasons at Florida. He’s also fielded elite defenses (Top 10 in S&P+ defense for 2015-16) while in Gainesville.
Offensively, the Gators have been a mess and it’s concerning they haven’t shaken the stink of the Muschamp era off yet. Especially since McElwain is supposed to be an offensive guru and quarterbacks coach. On the big stage, Florida has been pretty lackluster which has led to the feeling, despite divisional titles, that the Gators are still underachieving. In the event that McElwain were to have more success we’d also have to deal with the reality of a Florida coach leaving for South Bend, especially one who has spent all but 3 years of his life outside of the Midwest.
Bret Bielema, Arkansas, 46 years old
3-year F/+ Ranks: 55, 11, 9
It’s been 4 years since Beilema left Wisconsin and while he may not look it (that face, though!) he’s still really young. He won 10+ games on 4 separate seasons with the Badgers and won the Big Ten in each of his final 3 seasons in Madison. That was also a historically low point for the Big Ten while Wisconsin cruised through some easy schedules. Only 1 of Bielema’s seasons with Wisconsin finished in the Top 10 in the F/+ rankings.
Since he’s been at Arkansas it’s been more down than up. Although, the advanced stats loved the 2014-15 teams who, despite mediocre records, played a lot of teams close and had a few big upsets. This year, they’ve taken a big tumble thanks to a really leaky defense.
I have a hard time imagining Bielema fitting in at Notre Dame but the truth is he’s probably one of the best coaches in the country who has never won a major bowl game. That’s a back-handed compliment but a compliment still the same. He’s still young, and has had good-to-very good success at a pair of Power 5 programs.
James Franklin, Penn State, 44 years old
3-year F/+ Ranks: 10, 47, 45
Ewing Theory! Amazing what happens when you get rid of one of the most immobile college quarterbacks in recent memory. Franklin was precariously close from not making this list but has sky-rocketed up the rankings thanks to a surprisingly strong 2016 season. He now has legit claims of solidly rebuilding Vanderbilt and Penn State, both of which are looking pretty impressive given the state of each when he arrived.
One great year is a bit of a concern, though. Up until this year Franklin had averaged just over 48th nationally in F/+ over his previous 4 seasons. As noted above, he was going through some big rebuilding jobs so it’s difficult to hold that against him. However, Franklin didn’t exactly cover himself in glory while transitioning from Nashville to Happy Valley and as an eastern Pennsylvanian who has had some choice words against Notre Dame he’s unlikely to saddle up for South Bend anytime soon.
Say what you want though, he won the Big Ten East before Jim Harbaugh.
Mike Riley, Nebraska, 63 years old
3-year F/+ Ranks: 49, 36, 74
The oldest coach on our list and as a result the guy with the lowest ceiling. He’s this high on the list thanks to his experience and the fact that he’d be a great fit for Notre Dame: honest, humble, loved by his players, etc.
Oregon State has cratered since he left a couple years ago and he did win at least 9 games on 4 separate occasions with the Beavers. His brief time at Nebraska has been interesting where F/+ liked 2015 a lot better than 2016 even though the former had 4 more losses (all one-score defeats). There’s no doubt Riley would be about as non-flashy of a hire as possible and at his age and point of his career about as unlikely as anyone to leave for Notre Dame.
Paul Chryst, Wisconsin, 51 years old
3-year F/+ Ranks: 7, 32, 43
Chryst has popped up on many a Notre Dame fans’ radar lately. From a cultural standpoint he’d be a good–if not a little boring and mundane–choice with an extensive background in the Midwest. He’s also one of the hotter candidates out there having won 16 out of his last 19 games, toppled LSU to start the season, won the Big Ten West, and did something his predecessor at Wisconsin could only achieve once–a top 10 F/+ ranking this year.
However, Chryst was thoroughly mediocre while at Pitt and his 10-3 finish last year was 25 spots lower in F/+ than Notre Dame’s 10-3, for reference. There’s also the fact that his offenses have been sputtering in recent years (54th in S&P+ in 2016!) when that’s supposed to be his strength but he’s making a living off an elite defense this year. Hard to imagine that set up lasting much longer as the Dave Aranda coaching fades away.
Chryst would be in a good position to poach if he wasn’t born in Madison, played quarterback at Wisconsin, had two separate stints as an assistant in Madison, is now the head coach at Wisconsin, and has one of the easiest roads to a Power 5 conference title game.
Pat Fitzgerald, Northwestern, 41 years old
3-year F/+ Ranks: 45, 52, 71
I think if Notre Dame really put their hooks in Fitzgerald (likely, they won’t) he could come to Notre Dame. That’s why he’s ranked a touch higher than maybe some others would in the realistic category. After all, he is a former All-American linebacker at Northwestern with deep established roots in Evanston.
It’s amazing that Fitzgerald is still only 41 years old and finishing his 11th season as a head coach. It’d be nice if he left Northwestern and took a better job to see where is ceiling really is set. Anything higher than 60th in F/+ at Northwestern is a good job and he’s done that nearly every 3 years. Until he leaves Northwestern for a better job it’s not too likely Notre Dame will ever be truly interested.
Gus Malzahn, Auburn, 51 years old
3-year F/+ Ranks: 9, 33, 7
Malzahn was on the hot seat earlier this year but has seemed to do enough to keep his job–the Tigers are going to the Sugar Bowl believe it or not. Like a couple others we’ve reviewed he’s in a weird position of struggling a little bit with his offensive system that’s his baby yet he’s making a living with some really beastly defenses. He’s also done a terrible job recruiting quarterbacks to his system which is a red flag for the future.
Still, when his offense is up to speed he’s been a pretty good coach at the highest levels. In terms of Notre Dame he’d be such an odd fit with no experience anywhere close to Notre Dame’s sphere of influence. With his position and salary within the SEC I have him with one of the lowest realistic chances to coach the Irish.
Craig Bohl, Wyoming, 58 years old
3-year F/+ Ranks: 56, 115, 113
This guy’s on the list because he’s entirely obtainable and he built a multi-national championship winner at North Dakota State while he’s in the middle of a serious rebuilding effort at Wyoming.
The problem for him is that he’s on the older side and campus might burn down if Notre Dame were to hire someone from Wyoming. Even though he’s headed to the Mountain West Championship Game, he did finish up the regular season getting blown out by Bob Davie.
Larry Fedora, North Carolina, 54 years old
3-year F/+ Ranks: 26, 24, 70
Fedora’s at his second head coaching job and after doing some nice things at Southern Miss he got off to a really slow start at North Carolina. Then, last year’s 11-win season really caught a lot of people’s eye. Roughly in the middle of this season, Fedora’s name was being bandied about at several jobs higher up the food chain than North Carolina.
His star has somewhat dimmed recently, though. The Heels lost to NC State to finish the year and have been dropped 6 times over their last 14 games. Fedora has recruited and developed a really productive offense which is the bulk of his appeal. He’s also overseen some really shaky defenses (47th S&P+ defense in 2016 is a 3-year high) in Chapel Hill. Even though he has Power 5 experience under his belt he kind of feels like a homeless man’s version of Brian Kelly–and he’s a lot older than he looks, too.
Les Miles, Free Agent, 63 years old
3-year F/+ Ranks: N/A, 10, 22
Can you imagine? Obviously, Miles makes this list because of his experience and high level of winning. He was 95-24 during his first 9 seasons in Baton Rouge smack dab in the middle of the height of SEC power. He’s also the only coach on today’s list with a National Championship at the FBS level.
However, Miles is ranked last in being a realistic pick and a fit for Notre Dame. He’s the second oldest coach in our Top 30 by just a few months and might very well be completely lost in South Bend. Perhaps most damning, as the SEC West (and the SEC as a whole) was cooling off as the most dominant conference Miles finished 19-10 with few answers on a reloading process.
Miles would be without the annual bounty of Louisiana goldmine talent, without a top 5 (Chavis or Aranda) defensive coordinator, and no one has done less with more in college football on offense. Add in his eccentricity and I can imagine the only reason he’d even interview at Notre Dame is for the humor of what he’d be trying to sell.
Matt Rhule, Temple, 41 years old
3-year F/+ Ranks: 28, 45, 67
Just inside the Top 20 of our rankings and we finally reach a coach with a high realistic chance of coming to Notre Dame. I was one of the voices who thought Rhule was foolish to stick around at Temple following a successful 2015 with a handful of major losses on defense, including a few NFL Draft picks. Instead, he’s led a Temple team that hasn’t missed a beat.
Rhule is a defensive coach and that side of the ball has carried his Temple teams to a 19-7 record over the last two years, including an impressive 14-2 record in AAC play. You’d have to think with the recent struggles at Notre Dame his acumen on defense would be pretty enticing.
Still, his offenses have been really scattershot–and while he’s a young up and comer–only 4 years at Temple is really tough to swallow for an immediate jump to Notre Dame. Ideally, you’d like at least a couple years to flourish at a Power 5 school. A native of State College and former Penn State linebacker, Rhule has been linked to the Nittany Lion job since his national rise last year. That position doesn’t look like it’s coming open soon now but it’s hard to imagine Rhule staying in Philadelphia much longer.
Kevin Sumlin, Texas A&M, 52 years old
3-year F/+ Ranks: 25, 34, 42
The Swagcopter in South Bend? It doesn’t seem like a good fit at all but he did go to school in Indianapolis and later play college ball at Purdue. Like most SEC coaches his chances of leaving for Notre Dame are pretty slim. Of course, there’s also the possibility that he could be fired by A&M sooner rather than later.
Sumlin is kind of an intriguing choice if he could get John Chavis to come with him to Notre Dame and that seems unlikely. It’s also pretty evident that Sumlin’s ability to groom and maintain consistency on offense is vastly overrated and that feels like a roller coaster no Irish fan wants to ride.
He’s also sneaky old and hasn’t had a winning record in conference play since Manziel’s first season under center–that’s the last 4 seasons if you’re counting.
P.J. Fleck, Western Michigan, 35 years old
3-year F/+ Ranks: 18, 51, 56
We’ve arrived at the hot topic Fleck who is 14 month older than me. Depending on who you ask Fleck is either the next proven winner in the country or the dangerous flavor-of-the-month who hasn’t proven squat yet. Isn’t he somewhere in the middle?
For one, Fleck took over a completely moribund Western Michigan program with as little history of success as any team in the entire MAC. He’s now won 14 games in a row and is one win over Ohio (they won by 35 in their meeting last year and are 19.5 point favorites this weekend) from making a major bowl game. This also isn’t some run-of-the-mill good season for a MAC coach, either. According to F/+ it’s the best since that ranking has existed. This might be the best MAC team in a really, really long time.
On the other hand, we’re looking at an outrageously young coach with some (rumored) adulterous baggage (he divorced last year) and a personality that is going to be really, really difficult to pass through the interview process at Notre Dame. His bursting levels of energy are tempting in comparison to the more serene Brian Kelly as is his ceiling to date. That’s a tough trigger to pull if you’re Notre Dame.
Bobby Petrino, Louisville, 55 years old
3-year F/+ Ranks: 11, 39, 23
Petrino limped to the end of this season (squarely in the playoff hunt only to finish with ugly losses to Houston and Kentucky) but he’s built Louisville into one of the strongest ACC teams in just his third year back with the Cardinals. In addition, he’s also one of the best offensive coaches in the country and barring something insane this weekend about to have a Heisman quarterback on his resume.
Petrino’s also put together a really strong resume at the college level: A bowl win this season would be his 5th double-digit win season in 12 overall seasons. He’s won at least 9 games in 8 of those seasons, and at least 8 games in 11 out of 12 seasons. He’s won a major bowl game, has 3 Top 10 finishes, and went back-to-back seasons in the SEC West with a 21-5 record. Also a sneaky good stat: Petrino is 62-34 in league play across 5 different conferences.
From his motorcycle embarrassment and Falcons fiasco Petrino comes with his own baggage. If that doesn’t immediately cross him off the list his history of making a living off plenty of academic exceptions, transfers, and JUCO’s might do it anyway. Culturally, he’s spent most of his life in the backwaters of the western U.S. in addition to the southeastern part of the country–not exactly central casting for the Fighting Irish. But damn, if a few things about Petrino were different he’d be in the thick of this discussion.
Good group, although Petrino leading the pack leaves a really bad taste in my mouth.
DO YOU WANT TO WIN OR NOT??
I’ve privately stumped for Petrino, at least I think I could find room to convince myself his personal transgresssions can be forgiven. But, I think he’d really struggle outside his recruiting comforts.
Great, great stuff. Obviously there’s some room for quibbling (e.g., if Petrino isn’t a 1.0 or at least a 0.9 for scheme, who is?), but I appreciate the attempt to quantify it; that must have taken a lot of work.
I’m surprised that Rhule and Fleck aren’t in the top 15, especially given that you’ve ruled out the heaviest but extremely unlikely hitters (Saban/Meyer/Harbaugh/Fisher), but that makes me more interested to see who remains.
Come to think if it I don’t know if I gave anyone higher than 0.7 for scheme. I’d put Meyer higher if he were being included.
Other quibbles that jumped out at me, because why not stimulate a bit of discussion:
– I think Fedora’s ceiling is much higher than 1.5. Dude basically maxed out UNC football and did quite a good job at Southern Miss. He’s also a very, very youthful seeming guy for a guy in his mid-50s; I don’t think his age should be held against him too much.
– I don’t get how Les Miles is less of a fit at Notre Dame than Bobby Petrino. I realize Les is a Michigan Man, but I would think that fits into “realistic” (i.e., he’s not coming even if we want him) rather than “fit.”
– Not sure how Matt Rhule has a lower ceiling than Pat Fitzgerald or Paul Chryst.
Solid point on Fedora.
0.1 difference, at least Petrino would put together normal press conferences and not act like an alien on the alumni circuit and in recruits’ living rooms.
In my mind due to no P5 experience and defensive minded coaches are a little more scary to deal with.
I’ve wanted to like Fedora, too, but I feel like he’s underachieved in a major way at UNC given how talented his players are.
Yeah, I thought for sure Rhule and Fleck would be top 10 based on the “realistic” factor. The next list should be pretty interesting.
Great stuff as always, Eric! Like you, I’ve been very bullish on Petrino. However, I see him being a square peg in a round hole at Notre Dame due to his past transgressions and what appears to be a reliance on academically questionable players (JUCO players specifically).
I love the idea of Matt Rhule — his team’s performance against us last season was one to remember. I suppose the question to ask would be how well he would handle the transition from the small stage at Temple to the grand stage at Notre Dame. That’s what would make the hire risky.
I didn’t realize Rhule was that young. He might have promise in the future…much like Fleck. But I’d rather both had more experience in P5 before ever coming to ND.
I understand where you are coming from. But the “go get some experience elsewhere and we’ll come knocking on the next go-round” approach seems nearly impossible to pull off. Logistically, things just don’t tend to line up that way very often.
De-Muschamping Your Team
Muschamp has coached all over the place, and if your team was previously coached by one, they may end up with a face full of Muschamp stink. If your team gets sprayed, there are ways you can rid them of the scent without having to buy up every can of tomato juice in the area.
Over-the-counter products (such as Nature’s Miracle Muschamp Odor Remover) are a quick fix, but if you don’t have that on hand, you can prep the solution below.
Step 1: Keep Team outside
You’ll probably want to keep your team outside while you get it together so they don’t carry the smell indoors. Check their eyes; if they’re irritated or red, immediately flush them with cool water.
Step 2: Mix the Ingredients
Mix together:
1 quart of 3-percent hydrogen peroxide (available at any pharmacy)
1/4 cup baking soda
1 teaspoon liquid dishwashing soap
Wearing rubber gloves, wash your team with this solution immediately after they’ve been sprayed. DO NOT get the solution in their eyes. (If you don’t have peroxide, baking soda, and liquid soap on hand, use vinegar diluted with water.)
Caution: Do NOT store this mixture or make it ahead of time, as the mixture could explode if left in a bottle.
Step 3: Clean and rinse
Rub the mixture through their uniforms, but don’t leave it on too long (peroxide can bleach uniforms). Rinse them thoroughly.
Step 4: Shampoo
Next, wash your team with sports shampoo and rinse thoroughly. By now, they should be de-Muschamped and smelling sweet. Thoroughly towel-dry your team, and be sure to place them in a warm, sunny room for the next couple of hours so that they don’t get chilled.
New coach cleanup
If your team rubbed some of the Muschamp stink onto you, you can rid your clothes of the smell by using regular laundry detergent mixed with a half-cup of baking soda.
Dear thumbs-downer:
Is that you, Sally Muschamp, mother of Coach Will Muschamp? If so, I apologize for making fun of your baby boy.
If not, are you just a proponent of the old school, tomato juice de-Muschamping method or someone who feels that this subject is too serious to be taken so lightly by me?
Sincerely,
CSN
The beauty is that this comment, to your thumb-downer, was itself thumbs downed. Bravo!
and those two commenters (maybe both Sally and Larry Muschamp?) are all like
and
and
And I have thumbed up all the above. Can I use this recipe on anything my two cats D’Artagnan and Edith Piaf stink up a bit, CSN? Or maybe we can send a drone with a spray nozzle to overfly NDN?
Mais oui, monsieur!
CSN,
Sorry I missed this one – just back from class and saw this and just broke up in fits of laughter which I do rarely.
Merci!
Fleck to me is super intriguing – he’d make my top-3 list of personal choices, but definitely carries the highest risk. The most certain thing to me is that he’d be a monster recruiter at ND. I think he would be able to raise the bar even from where BK has set pretty consistent Top 8-15 classes.
He’s also been riding a pretty big talent advantage in the MAC, so I think his X’s and O’s ability is a pretty big question mark. Succeeding with a talent advantage is important, but to make the playoff you also need to be able to win games where talent will likely be at parity, and that piece seems to be at best unproven.
Beyond that, I’d be curious what type of culture he’d build at ND. What he did at WMU made perfect sense for it – he knows how to attract attention and generate buzz, and in Kalamazoo that’s much needed. How would he play it when you’re under the microscope constantly at ND? I’d probably like his ideas, but I don’t know that the administration would, because it’d probably go well beyond the things like field turf, night games, and Jumbotrons that already get the gold seats crowd in a frenzy.
I think he’d be an excellent fit at Oregon, but would love to see him stay one more year in case the ND job opens up – at the very least I bet it’d be an interesting interview.
Also, while it’s impossible to predict scandals and bad seasons, what does the competitive landscape look like next year? Major potential jobs open beyond ND (if not this year): UCLA, Tennessee, A&M? Those are decent jobs, but not competition like Texas or LSU that in my mind are definitely more appealing than South Bend.
Why do you think Fleck would be able to land monster recruiting classes at Notre Dame? Being young and exciting let him out recruit the Kent State Golden Flashes, but a top 10 recruiting class in college football means out recruiting at least one of [fill in the top 10 programs here]. The Trojans/Buckeyes/Wolverines aren’t the Golden Flashes.
I’ve not been excited about Fleck because I don’t know that I think he could land recruiting classes, win in Xs and Os in P5, or manage the ND job.
If I had to take a top 3 from the above list of 15 he’d be on it with Rhule and Fedora, but I don’t think that any of them are likely to make things better than they are now. Please feel free to start convincing me otherwise because right now I’m sitting on crossed fingers hoping we keep HCBK because I don’t know that any of the guys out there are likely to do a better job than he has.
That said, it’s hard to do much worse than 4-8, too.
I think recruiting is a pretty transferable skill – either you understand how to present yourself and your program in a way that’s appealing to high school players or you don’t. He understands how to market himself and a program, connect with kids through social media, and identify targets strategically. He’s not just out-recruiting Kent State, he’s recruiting at the same level or better as much of the Big Ten West and lower half of the Big 12. So I guess my question would be, if he’s outperformed the baseline by so much in Kalamazoo, why wouldn’t he continue to do the same at a bigger program, even with the baseline at ND taking into account the academic hurdles?
Because the stage is just too damn big. It’s the corollary to the “must have had head coaching success to win at ND” principle, namely “head coaching success at bigger than Western Michigan”. There is just too much noise and you cannot shut it out if you are that young and that junior.
More Noise comments that something is just too much noise?!?
The idea of my handle is to remind us that we have a crowd that makes noise late and at times not loud enough. So your Gif is kinda how the opponent’s QB should be. Not, of course, BK.
“hot topic PJ Fleck”
I now totally want a skinny-jean, pseudo-ironic t-shirt and button wearing PJ Fleck roaming our sidelines.
LMFTFY:
Presented without comment:
How would he row the boat at ND when they burned them all in 2015?
A pretty good list, lots of room for discussion.
I agree that Fleck has the greatest beta. Unlike Michael Bryan, I don’t think you penalize Fleck for outrecruiting his peers at WMU. Part of the job is to get the better players. The Jimmys and Joes matter more than the Xs and Os in college.
I can’t see the school even thinking about Petrino. Probably the same for Miles, but at least he would be entertaining.
I like Bielema, but he made some very negative comments about ND while at Wisconsin, in terms of our schedule, our independence. He also voluntarily walked into the crucible that is the SEC West.
I doubt Chryst or Fitzgerald leave their alma mater (same for Shaw when he is in the Top 15).
When I did this analysis just using Power 5 coaches, I came to the conclusion that the best likely target would be Sumlin or Fedora. It is also why I came to the conclusion that a change was too risky. I am very curious to see who you have in the Top 15.
I think Fleck should have a higher realistic level, he would almost certainly come if asked. The discount from Rhule, I assume, is that you don’t think he would be asked.
Looking at it from asking the coaches I think we’d offer Rhule before Fleck.
Agreed.
Not penalizing, just pointing out that he’s unproven compared to rest of the list in terms of scheme and strategy. I love that he’s a great recruiter, and it’s impressive he’s managed to lap the MAC in getting better talent. Is it realistic that he can follow that formula at ND and out-recruit USC, Michigan, and Ohio State? Probably not, so the importance of development and coaching become more important, and that’s where Fleck has a shorter track record and I think it’s fair to consider those unknowns a weakness compared to others than have proven it a strength.
I definitely agree with your point expressed that way. The track record is what gives him the wider beta.
Pete Werner just decommitted. 🙁
No doubt he has it straight from Urban that he’ll be a three year starter/national title winner and first round NFL draft pick, pinkie swear.
. . . and, if that plan doesn’t work, there’s consolation pizza.
If Notre Dame moves on this offseason, I’d really prefer a defense guy – particularly if they can keep Mike Sanford around. Through the Willingham, Weis, Kelly years, one consistent has been that the defense has been an afterthought. We know what kind of offense they’ll field and the defense will exist. If they have a tremendously talented player or two, it may actually be good…but probably not.
And it’s not like the offense is ever elite with these offense first guys either. Sanford running the show on his own wouldn’t even mean a drop-off to the offense.
That being the case, Rhule is my guy from this list. For the concern of a jump from Temple to Notre Dame, I think it’s fine. Talented head coaches are talented head coaches. Why let some mediocre P5 school snag him because Notre Dame thinks they’re too good for him? That kind of thinking is how Chris Petersen lands in Washington and turns them into an 11-1 team.
Headline on ESPN:
Really? I mean, I know it’s ESPN and therefore sprots are the angle from which the WWL will report, but this reads fairly insensitively. “Don’t worry tOSU fans, even though 11 were injured by a crazy nut running over them then jumping out and knifing people, the football team is fine!”
One of my former employers was in the WTC on 9/11. The firm posted on its website that all the lawyers got out safely. Forgot to mention the staff. There was more staff in the building at the time than lawyers because the lawyers arrive late. They got crushed. Attribute it to an insensitive stringer and the sports angle.
I’m an agnostic on this topic because, IMO, once Saban, Urban, and Harbaugh are eliminated from consideration (correctly) none of the rest of the coaching universe would make ND back into a consistent top contender any more than Kelly has. The system at ND needs to change before coaching choices will make that much difference at the top of the win/loss range we all aspire to achieve. I don’t even include Fisher, since I can’t imagine ND allowing him to recruit the thugs he’s been able to play at FSU. Although I wince when I say that given Tillery’s bs Saturday on national tv.
fire away.
I can’t believe this has so many thumbs up. The comment is, frankly, insane – it is implicitly saying that Brian Kelly is the 5th best coach in college football, which, uh, no.
To say that it is hard to win at ND is fair. To say that things maybe should change is fair (whatever that change may be is kind of amorphous, but whatever). But there have to be available people out there who would have done a better job over the past seven years than Kelly, especially when you take off-the-field stuff into account.
It is in no way saying that BK is a top 5 coach in CFB. It is saying that there is a tier 1, who could likely succeed anywhere, and outside of that there is no one who would likely do better than BK.
Just because you choose to interpret everything that isn’t anti-Kelly at totally pro-Kelly doesn’t make other people insane.
Name a coach who this applies to that Kiwi didn’t mention? Outside of Dabo, every other coach who has been to the BCSNCG or playoff has either been absolutely pantsed (Stoops/Fisher/Dantonio/Helfrich/Miles), had a terrible season (Dantonio/Helfrich/Chizik), been fired (Mack Brown/Chizik/Miles). BK easily has a top 10 resume for CFB coaches.
There is 0 actual evidence that your statement is accurate. It absolutely could be, but calling logical statements insane, and refuting them with unsubstantiated (and impossible to substantiate) theories belongs on NDN.
OK, the way I read this statement (as saying that BK is immediately beneath the tippy top tier of coaches) makes it insane. To the extent I misread it, I regret using the word. And not to parse words too much, but I didn’t call the commenter insane; I called the comment insane.
In the most charitable reading of his record and resume (and only taking on-the-field components into account), Kelly is in a tier below Shaw, Dantonio, Dabo, and Stoops as well. So that starts him, at best, at #9. However, there are guys who I think are pretty clearly better coaches: Petersen, Petrino, Gary Patterson, and even Ken Niumatalolo (probably wouldn’t be as good of a fit at ND than Kelly… but maybe?). And we would have been crazy to have kept Kelly if Tom Herman expressed interest. So I would have him safely outside of the top 10.
The most recent list of the top coaches in college football that I can find (by some rando, admittedly) has Kelly at #20 as of this October. http://www.foxsports.com/college-football/gallery/college-football-rankings-top-20-coaches-in-the-sport-101916 While I think there are some questionable judgments there (I don’t think Bielema is a better coach than BK, for one… and Fisher seems bizarrely low), it isn’t all that far off.
I wasn’t placing Kelly anywhere in relation to anyone except the 3 I named. My point of view is that none of the rest of the coaching universe would do materially better than Kelly given the ND strictures. So I’m indifferent to who comes in out of the “good” group. Of course there are plenty who could do worse, easily.
Would you trade an appearance in the BCSNCG for whatever Shaw, Dantonio, and Stoops have accomplished since 2010?
I would trade Shaw’s, Dantonio’s, and Stoops’s 2010-2016 for Kelly’s. That’s a no-brainer. And Shaw and Dantonio did those at historically (much) lesser programs.
Through 2015, both Stanford and Oklahoma outperformed ND in both S&P+ and records, and MSU had a much better record than ND (source: http://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2016/2/29/11125594/ncaa-football-best-teams-decades-history-alabama-fsu-nebraska-oklahoma-michigan). I, like I presume most people, would much rather have MSU’s records with a lower S&P+ than the reverse. (And yes I realize that some of Stanford’s record there was under Harbaugh, but Shaw’s record is still more impressive than Kelly’s.)
Stoops and Dantonio have both had their teams in the playoff, so it’s a tradeoff, isn’t it? You can’t rank that lower than our BCSCG appearance, since we didn’t have to win a semifinal. I’m not saying I’d trade, and I certainly don’t want ShawSmug, but I could see an argument.
And, to take the logic to its conclusion, that means we should prefer Mark Helfrich over all of them, since not only did he make the championship game, but he also won a playoff game.
I absolutely rank entering the playoff lower than the BCSNCG. 1) top 2 is better than top 4. 2) The BCSNCG is objectively closer to winning a NC than the playoff. 3) It is too cute by half as difficult to get into the playoff.
I walked into Sun Life stadium with the possibility of seeing ND win a national title. No OU/MSU/Stanford fan can say that in the past 6 years. And no Stanford fan has ever known what that feels like (well neither does any MSU fan, because last time they won there was no NC game).
Now I am not saying I think BK has necessarily had a better actual body of work than Stoops/Dantonio/Shaw (I actually forgot about Shaw and might place him in the Miles/Dabo tier). But they have all had the same pitfalls and the differences have largely been easier schedules/bowl opponents, at less demanding schools. I don’t think what any of them accomplished was actually more impressive than what Kelly did, and I don’t give any of them more (or less really) than a 50% chance to have done better than Kelly.
Do you think that ND team would have won a semifinal? If yes, then sure, count it. If not, and I’m honestly not sure, then it should count the same as a playoff game participant.
I think we might have beaten K-State that year. Gives me a 🙁 thinking about the possibility of having gotten to play them in the BCSNCG instead of Death Star Bama
I definitely think we would have beaten K St that year, our team was basically designed to stop them. I don’t think we would have beaten Oregon.
But that is not the same thing. We didn’t need to beat them. We de facto beat them by being undefeated in the regular season (we even beat the team who beat Oregon). It doesn’t matter if we were “better” we were in the championship game. If Bama’s OL and DL and Lacy and Cooper had all gotten food poisoning the night before, we would have been champs. We were 1 game away from winning the natty.
I am admittedly biased because I was able to go to that game and the experience was indescribable (prior to kickoff). I wouldn’t trade making it to that game for all the Rose Bowl wins against middling B1G teams, and first round playoff losses in the world.
But, just stepping back, and tying this back to the article: I think the reasonable debate is whether Matt Rhule would be better for the program than Brian Kelly. I say ¯\_(ツ)_/¯; you (presumably) say probably not. That’s fine enough. But the point is, BK’s reasonable points of comparison are Rhule and Fleck. Not the Dantonio/Shaw/Stoops tier.
As far as this goes, I actually feel pretty much the same as you. I don’t care if BK gets fired. If he does, I don’t particularly care what coach we get. I guess my first choice would be Fleck, as I think our only real chance to be consistently top 5-10 is to take a huge risk on a young guy and get lucky.
I know someone wayyy more qualified, with wayyy more information, and with a great track record in his time as AD is going to make that decision.
So last night, weirdly, I had a dream that Chip Kelly was fired by the Niners and they hired BK–the dream was so real I thought that in my study-induced haze I had seen it as a headline online just before going to bed and woke up this morning and immediately checked ESPN to see if I had been dreaming or if it was real.
Just now listening to Feldman and Mandel’s podcast, their guest Lindsay Schnell (who is based in Portland Oregon) noted that since the Helfrich firing, plane trackers noted UO’s plane flying from Eugene to South Bend. So…anyone taking any bets that my dream was just off by one coach, and BK will be replacing ChipK’s replacement at Oregon, rather than Kelly at SF?
Oregon’s announcement:
We wanted someone with new and exciting ideas and when we saw Brian kick a field goal on his team’s last possession even though they were down by four then we knew he was our guy!
The plane trackers are faaaaaake oh so super fake – http://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2016/11/30/13798470/football-coach-candidate-plane-flight-tracking-flightaware
SHHHHH! Don’t ruin it…