Now, we get to the good stuff. Part II of this series looked at potential coaches ranked 16th through 30th and today we zero in on the top 15 overall during the final Part III.

Part I: An Intro (CLICK HERE)
Part II: Coaches #30-16 (CLICK HERE)

Odds are the coach(es) you desire will be discussed here today. Feel free to add your two cents about what you like and dislike about your candidates.

Remember, this isn’t a list where higher ranked candidates are necessarily considered “better” or it’s a situation where we’d stump for hiring the 7th ranked guy over the 13th ranked guy. We’re throwing the grades out there primarily as a platform for further discussion and to get a better idea of the strengths and weaknesses of all the candidates as we scout for the future.

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Coaches #15-1

Willie Taggart, USF, 40 years old
3-year F/+ Ranks: 31, 44, 123

Taggart was on the hot seat even as few as 14 months ago as he was seemingly spinning his wheels at South Florida. Since then, he’s won 17 out of his past 21 games and won a share of the AAC East division title this year. If there’s a bad sign his defenses have been bad (96th, 46th, 100th in S&P+ defense last 3 years) but his offenses have been really flourishing over the past 2 years. Taggart’s come to Jesus moment was 2 years ago when he abandoned his West Coast pro-style scheme for a “Gulf Coast” offense that utilized up-tempo and simple reads for his athletes. It’s paid off as the Bulls finished 2016 with the No. 2 S&P+ offense in the country.

In addition, totaling 72 rushing touchdowns since 2015 should certainly perk the ears of many readers no matter what system you prefer.

Taggart is really young and finishing his 7th season as a head coach. He played at Western Kentucky and helped build the school into a Division I program as an assistant, coordinator, and eventually head coach. Jim Harbaugh brought him with him to Stanford in 2007 (where he stayed for 3 years) which is a good sign. I’m sure Notre Dame would love a coach born in and with deep roots in Florida who has been exposed to a high-level academic situation.

Steven Godfrey recently had a nice profile on Taggart, “Don’t let the smile fool you. Willie Taggart and USF are done being ignored.”

Mike Gundy, Oklahoma State, 49 years old
3-year F/+ Ranks: 22, 40, 75

Yet another coach right in that perfect wheelhouse age for a move to Notre Dame that is currently coaching at his alma mater. Most folks probably don’t think much about Gundy–the hair, the shootouts, the overall Big 12 stench of no defense. His defenses are consistent, at least: 66th, 64th, and 63rd in S&P+ defense the last 3 years. That might cross him off the list for some right away. He’s been in Stillwater a really long time, too. For reference, if the Cowboys win out this year Gundy would have 105 victories. If this were Notre Dame he would’ve just broken Knute Rockne’s school record.

Schedule and the feckless perception of the Big 12 play a part in his resume, I’m sure. Gundy has won at least 8 games in 8 out of the last 9 seasons. He’s won 10+ games 4 times and could add a 5th to his resume (with a 2nd Big 12 title) this year. He’s won a major bowl game, too.

Say what you want about weak schedules, Gundy has 7 seasons inside the F/+ Top 25, with career highs at 3rd (2011) and 8th (2013). At the very least, he’s intriguing. Clearly he’s been punching well above his (recruiting ranking) weight and that can’t be completely explained away by poor competition.

Mark Richt, Miami, 56 years old
3-year F/+ Ranks: 16, 30, 4

Oh, look! Another coach at his alma mater. Richt is someone worth mentioning and conceivably could be poached with the lack of current prestige in Coral Gables. In reality, he’s settling in for a nice long haul at Miami.

However, despite his recent graying hair Richt looks like he has a good 7 or 8 hard years at the highest level left. His resume is well known: 153 career wins, 8 seasons of at least 10+ wins, a pair of major bowl victories, 7 finishes in the AP Top 10.

If you want to criticize he’s done less with more a bit too often. As successful as he’s been that’s not a great sign for someone who would need to come to Notre Dame and do the opposite at several positions. He’s put up some scary rushing offenses in the past but you could also say he struggles as an offensive coach when he doesn’t have elite pieces at quarterback, running back, etc.

Bryan Harsin, Boise State, 40 years old
3-year F/+ Ranks: 15, 37, 21

Harsin’s in a bit of a weird spot right now. Obviously, the bar has been set ridiculously high in Boise where losing any games is as foreign to their fan base as any other outside of Tuscaloosa. He’s won 31 games in 3 years and still, he’s catching some heat these days. Boise didn’t even win their division in the Mountain West! They’re only 9-5 in their last 14 conference games, too!

And yet, Harsin is linked to pretty much every big job west of the Mississippi. He’s continued the tradition of efficient and productive offenses (hiccup last year to 54th S&P+ but 13th in 2014 and 10th this year) and there aren’t many coaches who have won a major bowl game at 38 years old.

If he stays at Boise can he maintain the program that’s been (seemingly) on auto-pilot for over a decade? There’s a lot to like about Harsin and for Notre Dame’s purposes it might be beneficial to see him operate at another school first.

Justin Fuente, Virginia Tech, 40 years old
3-year F/+ Ranks: 20, 41, 41

Fuente is a name inside the Top 15 that I’m sort of wondering if I’ve overvalued. In some ways, it feels like he’s one of the biggest flavor of the month candidates and in a few years we’ll look back and wonder, “What were we thinking?” The F/+ didn’t love his final two seasons at Memphis (they actually finished higher, 39th, this year) and you wonder how much he lived off Paxton Lynch being awesome.

But still, it was Memphis and he built them from nothing. And now he’s put together a very solid first season in Blacksburg that featured a division title and a date with Clemson this weekend for the ACC title. He’s also groomed Jerod Evans quickly which means he could have half a decade of great quarterback play under his belt soon.

Moreover, a lot of people were impressed with his demeanor and comportment while visiting South Bend this year. We can pour over numbers and the like but that stuff matters, too. He also talks like someone who isn’t leaving Virginia Tech any time soon but you never know.

Mike MacIntyre, Colorado, 51 years old
3-year F/+ Ranks: 12, 94, 83

MacIntyre has made major waves this season by taking Colorado to the Pac-12 Championship. That doesn’t even feel right to type. However, this isn’t even his first reclamation project. If you were paying attention (and most of us were not) MacIntyre went from 1-12 in his first year at San Jose State to 10-2 in his 3rd season. The Spartans finished 24th in F/+ that year, too. So that was more than legit. They almost beat Stanford and defeated Navy and BYU, among others.

He’s now working the magic again in Boulder where he suffered through a 2-25 start in Pac-12 play to burst through with a 8-1 record this year. For Notre Dame that’s doubly impressive since he’s done it with defense (10th overall S&P+) more so than just outscoring everyone as is fashionable out West.

MacIntyre has a nice mix of a resume, too. Grew up in a football family in the South, played at two academic-minded schools (Vanderbilt & Georgia Tech), has assistant experience at a couple Power 5 schools, some NFL experience, some coordinator experience, and now 7 seasons as a head coach. You’d like him to be a little younger, though.

Gary Patterson, TCU, 56 years old
3-year F/+ Ranks: 38, 19, 6

Patterson was a desired candidate by many (including me) when Notre Dame was in the process of replacing Weis back in 2009. At that point, he was just beginning a rampage through the Mountain West that would watch the Horned Frogs go unbeaten in league play for 3 straight years. Then, TCU joined the Big 12 and things changed.

Patterson’s about to finish his 5th season at the Power 5 level, and he’s 10-16 within the Big 12 in 3 of those seasons. Pretty shabby, but he is coming off a 23-3 run with Peach and Alamo Bowl victories for 2014-15. Overall, he has 4 Top 10 seasons in F/+ rankings and one of those has come in the Big 12.

It might be too late. Patterson has been at TCU for nearly 20 years with his coordinator experience tacked on and he’s no spring chicken anymore. He’s also notoriously crabby and would have to go through what some believe too large of an adjustment in so many areas coaching the Irish.

Dan Mullen, Mississippi State, 44 years old
3-year F/+ Ranks: 64, 16, 13

Finally, someone with connections to Notre Dame! Two graduate seasons in South Bend 16 years ago! From that point forward Mullen followed Urban Meyer everywhere until finally taking the Mississippi State job in 2009.

The biggest question with Mullen is how do you rate overachieving in Starkville but never finishing higher than 4th in the SEC West but once in 8 years? With Dak Prescott as the full-time quarterback the Bulldogs reached some amazing highs for their program’s history. Outside of that it’s been a pretty big bowl of meh.

According to F/+ this 2016 is actually Mullen’s worst of his career. However, he’s been top 40 in F/+ for 6 out of his 8 seasons. That’s actually kind of impressive. Even though he makes nearly $5 million a year this is one SEC coach Notre Dame could realistic bring back up north.

David Shaw, Stanford, 44 years old
3-year F/+ Ranks: 33, 6, 18

I really, really, really didn’t want to put Shaw on this list. It pains me to do this but he deserves a spot. He’s finishing up his 6th season in Palo Alto and has won at least 8 games in every season. That doesn’t even do his record justice–if Stanford win their bowl game it’ll be Shaw’s 5th season with at least 10 wins.

Shaw’s shown an impeccable ability to save his team from backtracking, too. That has to be super appealing to Notre Dame. At one point in the middle of this season the Cardinal looked legitimately bad and were in the 60’s according to F/+ yet here they are pushing towards a Top 30 finish and if that’s as bad as it gets for Stanford under Shaw well that’s pretty good. He also has 4 finishes inside the F/+ Top 10 in 6 seasons, that’s absurd.

It’s amazing that Shaw is just 44 years old, too. He could be coaching at Stanford no problem for the next 15 years. And that’s the issue for Notre Dame–I’d make the case that pound for pound the Cardinal are Notre Dame’s biggest rival in the here and now and I don’t know what the Irish could throw at Shaw to get him to leave the Farm.

Mark Dantonio, Michigan State, 60 years old
3-year F/+ Ranks: 65, 9, 11

Out of every coach on this Top 30 list no one had a worse F/+ ranking for 2016 than Dantonio. Are we seeing the beginning of the end of this miraculous run by Michigan State? Perhaps it’s just a window for him to leave for another program?

I’ve been a fan of Dantonio’s style, although I’m not very partial to his offense. It’s the other side of the ball that is worth it. Up until this year the Spartans were on a 5-year run inside the Top 20 in F/+ with Rose and Cotton bowl victories. He’s personified overachieving and doing more with less.

The problem now is that he’s in his 60’s and hasn’t shown any desire to leave East Lansing. Maybe you could argue with Michigan on the rise it’s the right time to leave and try a new challenge. It still feels like he’s going to work at it for a few more years before retiring as a legend at Michigan State.

Tom Herman, Texas, 41 years old
3-year F/+ Ranks: 19, 26, N/A

Texas didn’t waste any time. Our rankings were created a couple weeks before the end of this season and a lot changed for Tom Herman, including a third loss this season and a quick hiring by the Longhorns. Obviously, we don’t need to spend too much time on him now but he’s been a lightning rod for the past two seasons.

Interestingly, F/+ didn’t love his Houston teams which may be a little bit of a caution for his early tenure in Austin. He did take over a solid culture at Houston where a lot of previous coaches succeeded, too. Still, a 22-4 start to a career at his age with wins over Louisville, Oklahoma, and FSU is damn impressive. People love big game coaches. I tend to side with him becoming something close to a great coach but I’d pull back on him immediately making Texas a playoff-type of team.

Kyle Whittingham, Utah, 56 years old
3-year F/+ Ranks: 37, 22, 29

I’ve gone this far and I’ll fully admit that after writing and inspecting everything dozens of times I think I may have overrated Whittingham. Here’s the good, he’s won a major bowl game (actually 2, he coached the Fiesta Bowl for Utah after Meyer left in 2004) and has 4 seasons of at least 10 wins. He also tied for the Pac-12 South last year as a sneaky good team.

However, it’s always seemed like Utah hangs their hat on defense and Wittingham has only had a couple of Top 20 S&P+ defenses since joining the Pac-12. On average since 2011 the Utes have finished 32nd in S&P+ defense, that’s okay I guess. What bugged me the most is Wittingham only has one Top 20 finish in F/+ which is kind of shocking. They also stumbled down the stretch this year losing 3 out of their last 4 after looking like the favorites to win the Pac-12 South.

For someone who has been at Utah since 1994 and played college ball in the state at BYU I’m not sure it’s worth wasting much time here. Still, I’ve always liked how Wittingham handles his business, someone talk me back into him as a quality candidate!

Dabo Swinney, Clemson, 46 years old
3-year F/+ Ranks: 4, 2, 14

The killer of Clemsoning arrives on our list at No. 3 and it’s a really unrealistic chance that Swinney would be packing his bags for South Bend ever. In truth, he probably should’ve been included on the list with Saban, Meyer, Harbaugh, and Fisher as the untouchables. Dabo has only been at two schools (Alabama & Clemson) since 1989 and is the unofficial next head coach of the Crimson Tide.

I’m just a big fan of this guy–smarter than he’s given credit, surrounded by excellent assistants, and dresses like a football coach should dress. Swinney’s been on a frightening tear, too. Now in his 6th straight season with at least 10 wins–and barring an upset in the ACC Title Game–a second straight trip to the playoffs.

Interestingly, F/+ didn’t love Swinney’s first 5 seasons at Clemson where he averaged 30th nationally with a season-high of 19th overall in 2009. Since 2013, he’s been inside the Top 16 every season and seemingly getting stronger. It’ll be interesting to see how things move along without Deshaun Watson next year.

Bob Stoops, Oklahoma, 56 years old
3-year F/+ Ranks: 14, 4, 19

Stoops coming to Notre Dame has become such a running joke in recent years that maybe we’ve reached the point where it’s going to double back and actually happen? There are folks who will swear Stoops was this close to taking over the Irish back in late 2009 and whenever this job opens up again there will be rumors yet again.

On the surface, it doesn’t make much sense. A former Iowa defensive back with a bronze legacy at a Top 10 program should come to Notre Dame because he’s Catholic and from Ohio, or something?

Stoops won his only National Championship when Bob Davie was still coaching Notre Dame but you’d have to be crazy to not want him in South Bend. At least 8 wins in every season since his inaugural campaign in Norman. Ten finishes in the Top 10 of the polls. Four major bowl wins. A possibility this weekend for his 14th season with at least 10 wins.

Stoops age probably isn’t a huge factor, but he comes with a lot of mileage (188 wins!) and there’d be some serious questions about his ability to adapt to Notre Dame with no JUCO’s and a no reliance on majors such as health and exercise science and human relations. His defenses with brother Mike Stoops have been pretty shaky and who knows if OC Lincoln Riley would come with him and how Air Raid-y things would get at a new home in the Midwest.

Chris Petersen, Washington, 52 years old
3-year F/+ Ranks: 5, 13, 58

This is the right man for the job. He checks off most of the boxes you’re looking for especially with his success at Boise State (92-12 overall record have mercy) and now quickly rebuilding Washington where he has the chance to win the school’s first conference title since 2000 and enter the College Football Playoff.

In terms of F/+ Petersen is putting together his 7th season inside the Top 15 and if his current position holds it’ll be his 3rd top 5 finish. He’s won 2 major bowl games and has plenty of experience on the big stage.

I’d go so far as to say Petersen is the best fit for Notre Dame since Lou Holtz. Many folks agree he was the brains behind Boise State’s rise to prominence under Dan Hawkins and took the program to its greatest heights once he became head coach. He’s also outstanding at developing talent (obviously at Boise) and he’s doing it again at Washington where he doesn’t have a plethora of raw talent (29th, 27th, and 37th ranked recruiting classes) and is a top 5 team this year.

Seemingly always clever offenses that run the ball a lot and are efficient behind smart quarterback play. A long history with Pete Kwiatkowski who has led several tremendous defenses throughout his association with Petersen. Sign me up for all of this.

Petersen’s youngest son Sam was diagnosed with a brain tumor that spread to his spine when he was 1-year old back in the late 1990’s but thankfully his health has recovered today. The more pressing issues now are that Petersen (except a lone year at Pitt in ’92) has lived his entire life west of the Rockies, he’s notoriously shy of the spotlight, and of course Washington is in a great position to keep him long-term–he was extended through 2020 for $4 million per year just over a year ago and is in the process of negotiating a new 10-year deal that is reportedly going to push toward $5 million per year which would make him by far the highest paid Pac-12 coach.

He’s still my first, second, and third phone call and I’d be doing everything in my power to convince him to come to Notre Dame for 2018 after his current crop of sensational sophomores declare early for the NFL.

Give Me Odds!

Of course everyone interested in Notre Dame is wondering what the heck is going on with the future of Brian Kelly. In all likelihood Kelly will be getting another season and that’s kind of been the assumption with this series. Perhaps there will be some breaking news after this weekend where 14 out of this Top 30 list are participating in their final regular season game or conference championship. But it’s unlikely.

Fleck 14/1
Taggart 13/1
Rhule 8/1
MacIntyre 5/1

With a gun to my head–with either a decision coming soon or likely next year–these are the odds I’d put at this very moment on the next Irish head coach.

A lot of people are being drawn to Fleck’s personality and I’m okay with that. He’s still such a wildcard in age, experience, and temperament that I have an extremely hard time seeing Notre Dame jumping for that kind of guy. I just can’t see Swarbrick being too enamored with him and I really can’t see the powers above him truly clamoring for him, either. Plus, will we take another undefeated non-Power 5 coach and rip him away from his bowl game? Alternatively, what can Fleck prove with another year at Western Michigan? And if he finds another job this off-season is it big enough to prove anything in one year? Now seems like a good time to strike but I bet the Irish won’t pull that trigger.

Taggart comes off as a much more acceptable choice in comparison’s to what is going to be perceived as Fleck’s immaturity. In recent days, Taggart has been heavily linked to the Oregon job and if he were to take that we can likely cross him off the list at Notre Dame. He feels like someone who wouldn’t be picked right now but with another strong season at USF he’s going to be right in the thick of things next off-season.

I view Rhule as the pretty safe but not very glamorous hire. If things are really as bad as some of the rumors and Notre Dame will need to find a new head coach within a matter of days I’m certain he’ll be a finalist.

Overall, it’s MacIntyre that makes the most sense. Unlike the others, he’s at a Power 5 program and he’s proven he can greatly overachieve given his surroundings. He even looks like a Notre Dame coach, if you know what I mean. You have to wonder if he can sustain success and really perform against the big dogs but he’s in prime spot to poach. His base salary is $2 million and it’s unlikely Colorado dishes out an obscene amount of money to keep him around.

If MacIntyre stays at Colorado for next season they are well positioned to win a lot of games due to a cupcake out of conference lineup with USC and Washington at home. At minimum, his stock should stay fairly high either this off-season or next.