Larry Fedora has built things up at North Carolina to unprecedented success for their program in modern times. Their 19 wins over the past 2 seasons is the most since the Tar Heels went 21-3 from 1996-97. Additionally, their two-year S&P+ rankings of 28 and 21 convey a program built on a solid foundation.

This upcoming fall will really test that foundation.

North Carolina

2016 Record: 8-5
2016 S&P Rank: 21
Offense Returning Production Rank: 128
Defense Returning Production Rank: 69

(Just Like) Starting Over

I don’t know how this could be proven but I’d bet Notre Dame has never faced a team replacing more production on offense than North Carolina in 2017. The quarterback, top three running backs, and 3 out of their top 4 receivers need to be replaced. In the entire country, only Western Michigan has to replace more production from a year ago.

The Tar Heels are also losing some really good college talent, too. Among their 6 NFL Draft picks this spring a total of 5 players came from the offense, including 2nd overall pick Mitch Trubisky at quarterback.

Receivers Mack Hollins (4th round) and Ryan Switzer (4th round) were picked as were running backs T.J. Logan (5th round) and former Notre Dame verbal commit Elijah Hood (7th round).

Under Center

Even with such a large overhaul on offense the focus in Chapel Hill will be on finding a new quarterback. Throughout this mini-Renaissance the Tar Heels have had some really high-level play at this position so this off-season will be very important.

Many are expecting LSU grad transfer Brandon Harris to win the job in August and he’s one of 4 transfers coming in this year who could win jobs on somewhere offense. The former high 4-star never really had much of a career in Death Valley and is looking for a fresh start at UNC.

One of the reasons why Harris is expected to win the competition is the lack of experience on the Carolina roster. Rising redshirt sophomore Nathan Elliott is a former low 3-star recruit who threw 9 passes last year and is under-sized. The Heels also have low 4-star Chazz Surratt and 3-star Logan Byrd from the 2016 class who both took a redshirt last year.

Harris may win the job but I wouldn’t be surprised if he loses it eventually, and probably before the Notre Dame game. He’s reasonably athletic with good straight line speed but has been one of the most inaccurate quarterbacks in the country since he entered college. Over the past 3 years he’s only completed 186 of his 346 passes for a 53.7% rate, truly awful.

Chizik “Retires”

In all likelihood the North Carolina offense is taking a step back, perhaps a big step back. The Tar Heels will need solid improvement on defense to stay afloat. They’ve steadily improved (S&P+ defense rankings 110th to 72nd to 44th) since Gene Chizik arrived as defensive coordinator but he left the program after 2016 to spend more time with his family. Is he jumping ship at the right time??

Linebackers coach John Papuchis now takes over as the defensive coordinator along with 3 new position coaches on this side of the ball.

Defensive lineman Nazair Jones left early (3rd round pick) but enough players return to come into 2017 with a solid foundation, particularly at linebacker and in the secondary. The Tar Heels defense was great at limiting opponents explosiveness (19th IsoPPP) but struggled mightily stopping the run (95th opponent rushing success rate) and somehow only picked off one pass all season. They were respectable last year and need to improve with a lot of new coaches.

Summer Spread: Irish Favored by 2.5 Points

You could make the case for a tighter spread based on two factors: North Carolina’s stronger season in 2016 and the fact that the Irish will be playing in Chapel Hill, the 3rd true road game in the past 4 contests coming into this for Notre Dame.

However, North Carolina is losing so much particularly on offense that I can see Vegas favoring the Irish, even though Notre Dame is currently on a 4-game road losing streak. Once the season begins, my predicted line may move considerably. The Irish are also a sneaky good 17-2-0 all-time against the Heels.

Buy or Sell: North Carolina in the Coastal Division Hunt

I will buy, if only because there are so many question marks throughout the entire division and I see no reason why (maybe other than Brandon Harris throwing worm burners until he’s benched) North Carolina isn’t as poised as anyone else to re-load.

The other top teams in the division (Pitt, Virginia Tech, Miami) all have to replace quarterbacks which could close the gap for North Carolina starting from scratch on offense.

Know a Player: DE Malik Carney

North Carolina always seems to specialize in creating defensive line prospects on an assembly line. Carney came to Chapel Hill as a low 3-star linebacker and had himself a nice redshirt sophomore season in 2016 with 8.5 tackles for loss and 5.5 sacks. He should be one of the leaders of a reconstructed defensive line this fall.

Outfitter: Jordan

North Carolina has been a Nike school for years and years while their basketball team has been appropriately sporting the Jordan Brand for many years. The other hoops schools with the Jumpman include California, Georgetown, Marquette, Oakland, and Fresno State.

The Heels re-upped their Nike contract back in 2009 and recently signed a deal to become the 2nd football team to wear the Jordan brand this fall. They are reportedly currently restructuring their current Nike deal.

Most Important Game: at Virginia Tech

An opener across the coast at Cal is a very easy way to lose and it gets no better when the Heels have to come back the next week and face reigning Heisman winner Lamar Jackson and Louisville.

This game against Virginia Tech will be on the road and sandwiched in between Virginia and Miami home games. I can envision at least 3 losses prior to this stretch so anything worse than 2-1 could sink their divisional title hopes. A 3-0 sweep with a road win at Blacksburg would be huge.