If you haven’t checked in on USC for a while you may have remembered their brutal defeat at the hands of Alabama in their opener, or their offensive drought against Stanford, or their close but still 3rd loss in their first 4 games on the road at Utah. In September it looked like Clay Helton was for sure going to be let go by the end of this season.
Notre Dame (+17.5) at USC
Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
Exhibition Park, Los Angeles, California
Date: Saturday, November 26, 2016
Kickoff: 3:30 PM ET
Television: ABC
Series: 46-36-5 Notre Dame
Today, USC is perhaps the hottest team in the country outside of Tuscaloosa. They’ve won 7 straight games, handed Washington their only defeat to date, and are a Colorado loss against Utah away from a re-match with the Huskies for the Pac-12 Title. Even if the Trojans don’t make their league championship game they will be heavy favorites to win their bowl game while finishing 10-3 and likely at or near the Top 10 in the polls.
3 Matchups to Watch
Ronald Jones vs. Notre Dame Rush Defense
The Texas native nearly picked Notre Dame but is now flourishing as a sophomore in Los Angeles. Jones didn’t start the first 6 games for USC and also didn’t get going until later in the season. He’s now officially on fire. Over his last 4 games, Jones has acumulated 608 rushing yards with 8 rushing touchdowns.
Irish Offense Converting 3rd Downs
USC has played a really tough schedule and a lot of their traditional defensive stats are lackluster. They’re below average to kind of bad in turnovers forced, sacks, tackles for loss, and red zone defense. What they’ve been pretty good at is getting off the field on 3rd down. Yeah, the Irish haven’t been too great in that department on offense in 2016.
Special Teams Gaffes vs. USC’s Athletes
Let’s not let Adoree Jackson bound all over the field when he has the ball on special teams, okay? We don’t have Will Fuller this year to demoralize him.
2 Sides of the Line
USC’s offensive line has played a decent amount of bodies but is rounding into form with a solified unit these days. Sophomore 5-star Chuma Edoga (6-4, 290) started the year at left tackle but has been replaced by last year’s starter 5th-year senior Chad Wheeler (6-6, 310) since week 3 once the latter was healthy.
Redshirt sophomore Chris Brown (6-5, 300) won the battle at left guard but has been replaced by last year’s starter junor Damien Mama (6-4, 325). At center, junior Toa Lobendahn (6-3, 295) started against Alabama but has been out with a knee injury ever since. In his place, redshirt junior Nico Falah (6-4, 280) has made the last 10 starts.
On the right side junior Via Talamaivao (6-2, 315) has made every start at guard. At tackle, 5th-year senior Zach Banner (6-9, 360) is back as starter and only missed a couple of games with an ankle injury.
The Trojans line has found a groove lately. They were held to a modest 113 yards against Washington (who isn’t?) but have averaged 312 rushing yards in their over previous 4 games in the Pac-12.
Clancy Pendergast is in his 3rd stint at USC and second as the defensive coordinator after his one-and-done season back in 2013. He’s known as a 5-2 disciple but he’s been varying the looks for the Trojans a lot this year often using only two true linemen up front.
USC lost redshirt junior 5-star Kenny Bigelow to a season-ending knee injury and sophomore Noah Jefferson to academic suspension after their first game. They’ve had Utah grad transfer Stevie Tu’ikolovatu (6-1, 320) anchor the line all season at nose guard.
Sophomore 5-star Rasheem Green (6-5, 280) is playing a big role as a tackle/end hyrbid player and has 4.5 sacks and 4 pass break-ups this season. Making their living on the edges are sophomore Porter Gustin (6-5, 260) who has an impressive 56 tackles and 10.5 TFL. On the other side, junior Uchenna Nwosu (6-3, 235) has 43 tackles and 7 TFL.
1 Prediction
Even with USC’s rough start to the season we knew this would be a tough game. As we enter the last weekend of the year it’s looking significantly more challenging.
For all of the Trojans trials and tribulations since 2010 they’ve almost always found a way to develop a quarterback with a lot of eligibility left. Poor Max Browne waited 4 years to finally take reigns inside the Coliseum and his gig lasted 3 games. Think about that the next time you want to criticize a quarterback for leaving town when they don’t get to start after a year or two.
In steps redshirt freshman Sam Darnold who now stabilizes the Trojan quarterback depth chart and offers a bright future for the next 3 years.
Darnold is the second highest rated quarterback in the Pac-12 and despite playing minimally in the beginning of the year he’s already 4th in the league in passing yards. I do think he’s getting a little of that typical media hype because he’s already reached a certain floor as a freshman, plus USC is on a nice winning streak. That’s not to say Darnold isn’t good but, as we saw with Kizer, things can be deceiving in your first year of playing college football.
USC has done a really good job working around Darnold’s skill-set–and while Kizer can go through stretches of this game producing more largely because of his running–it’s the Trojans supporting cast that should offer far more consistency.
I’m not expecting a blowout. Although, in some corners of the Notre Dame fandom a blowout is losing by more than 8 or 9 points. So, if the Irish lose by 12 or 35 and both are considered blowouts then I guess I could be expecting something of that order.
This is a rivalry game which means some weird stuff could happen. There’s something lingering in the back of my mind that Notre Dame’s going to cap off this ludicrously absurd season with an upset of USC. Somehow, I think that would actually make Irish fans more angry. For one, that they waited until the 12th game to put together their best game of the season. And secondly, it’ll only inflame certain segments from within us to jack up the FIRE EVERYBODY talk in resistance to a win.
Unfortunately, Notre Dame isn’t winning this game. USC’s defense is too stiff and there are too many weapons for Darnold to play with on offense. I don’t believe we’ll see a really distracted team with the drama hanging over the program right now. Still, that hasn’t stopped this team from losing even when they are putting in a good effort.
Well, um…happy Thanksgiving, I guess. I’m thankful for life beyond ND football this year.
Does anyone think that LSU hiring Herman means Texas kicks the can down the road for a year… and therefore we should try to make a hire now? Or will the growth in eligible candidates be enough to make waiting a year worthwhile?
There’s no way Texas is keeping Strong for another year, if that’s what you mean. Even if they strike out on Herman (and it looks like that is the case), they will go after someone else. Moreover, I really don’t think that ND is going to can Kelly. It would be very interesting to see ND hire Strong as DC as some have speculated (without any evidence, I might add.)
Now, lately, everything I have said or thought has turned out wrong, so I guess that means that Herman will go to Texas and be c0-head coach with Strong; Kelly and Swarbrick will both get fired; and new AD, Andy Cross, hires “the Bonger” as Kelly’s replacement.
Happy Thanksgiving everyone!
No advanced stats preview coming tomorrow (Happy Thanksgiving!) so just a few thoughts here:
Beyond the obvious parts where USC is playing extremely well right now, they’ve just been incredibly well balanced. They’re Top 15 on both offense and defense S&P+, which is something zero other teams can claim. On both offense and defense they also just don’t have a visible weakness in terms of explosiveness and efficiency, though the offense bends more towards efficiency. That after their opening struggles the passing offense is #2 nationally speaks to just how incredible Darnold has been. The matchup against the ND pass defense (98th in Passing S&P+ D) is a mismatch of epic proportions and could get Darnold invited to NYC.
It’s a struggle to highlight a potential defensive weakness, but if I had to pinpoint one flaw the USC pass rush has been pretty lackluster. The problem is that their defensive backs (especially Adoree Jackson) have been incredible so it really hasn’t mattered – they’re still #10 in FBS. Especially if Torii Hunter Jr. is out I think the Irish receivers will really struggle to get open. Clancy Pendergast has his crew playing better with each passing week, and he’s a guy that I hated seeing USC hire back.
The S&P+ and FEI predictions for this game are pretty even, projecting and 11-12 point USC win, but both account for USC’s season performance as a whole versus how well they’re playing right now with Darnold. The Irish have shown their resilience and haven’t quiet yet despite a miserable season, but I think there’s a decent chance for a real (20 to 30 point) blowout.
You know what I’d like to see tomorrow? Less than three sacks, 4.0 yards per carry, and 66% completions. That would be a really good outing against an extremely talented USC team, though we would probably still lose by 10 with a modest running performance. On the defensive side, what do people think would be good?
Since you ask — I’d like to see them keep it all in front of them in the post BVG mode (insofar as we have been able), thus slow down the SC attack, and have Jarron and Nyles play lights out against the run, and keep SC to 35.
Yeah, 35 seems high, but when I looked at the USC depth chart preseason, I could see the case for that. So given what we know now, I think that’s a legit goal.
Besides (being a hope springs eternal kinda fan despite all the massive and no doubt probably justified handwringing that’s going on) if we hold them to 35 we can win the game if our offense plays faultlessly — n’est-ce pas?
Changing the subject slightly, More Noise, but what are your thoughts on the passing of Comrade Fidel Castro? Do you think he and Coach Paterno will get along, or will they be in different circles?
Well… OT as it may be, that’s a very pertinent question today, for me at least, as driving back from teaching my Saturday morning class, I have had to listen to all the old lefty French intellectuals dusting off their faded memories of the 60’s and singing the praises to the leader of the oppressed who, suffering mightily under American hegemony and embargoes, was just kind of… forced… to arrest and execute political opponents,…etc. Berk…
Anyway, to respond directly, looking at your graph, you’d have to put him down there in the heresy and violence circles, would you not? Which still puts him above treachery and betrayal, which was Joe Pa.