DISCLAIMER: I wrote this after the loss to Marquette and decided it was too negative to post. In the interest of self-care, I wasn’t going to watch the Georgia game. Of course, I couldn’t resist. I’ll put a few post-Georgia thoughts at the end…


As I’ve aged, my attitude has drifted to pessimism. I try to be self-aware enough to know when I’m being a cynic. That’s why I’m here to beg the 18 Stripes community to help me out. Help me find the light with the Notre Dame’s mens basketball team. Tell me this isn’t as dark as I feel about it.

I’ll be the first to admit I’ve had wild swings of attitude around Mike Brey. Let me also be perfectly clear up front: ND has run some fun offense through the years and has an ACC banner hanging in the gym. These are very good things, and Mike Brey deserves the credit for them. It is a hint of sickness that compels me to look at that gift and wonder if it could have been so much more. This article isn’t to daydream about if Jerian had actually kicked it out to Pat off that ISO. This article is to peer in to the future and see if there’s hope to return to some of the glitz and glamor of those heady days.

In 2018, the Irish program still bathed in the glow of their back-to-back Elite Eight appearances in ’15 and ’16. An early NCAA Tournament exit after a bad WV matchup stung in ’17, but they signed the deepest class of high school talent in recent memory. It seemed Brey had every opportunity to stir the cauldron with the perfect mix of talent in 2018-’19. Experienced juniors TJ Gibbs and John Mooney would compliment the one-man sophomore class of DJ Harvey. Rex Pfluger would provide the link to the past and senior leadership to put it all together. It all felt like the perfect mix to wipe away the bitter taste of that year’s NIT appearance.

The freshmen that came into the 2019 campaign are now the super seniors finishing out the 2023 season. While Prentiss Hubb moved on, and Robby Carmody saw his career derailed by injuries — the remaining guys are playing over 30 minutes a night for Mike Brey. Based on the losses to Syracuse and Marquette, it is easy to believe this heralded class will exit their extended careers with a single NCAA tournament bid.

This is where I’m trying to community-source my optimism. Help me find it. Last year, Blake Wesley slashed his way into that bid. Paul Atkinson provided enough athleticism down low to give that team enough of a boost to convert Wesley’s youthful exuberance into two NCAAT wins (if you count first 4). Where is that with this bunch?

I know JJ Starling is a higher rated recruit than Wesley was. He looks the part of a young guard with room to improve. Ven-Allen Lubin has the vibe of a crafty undersized big. I want to watch these guys with hope and optimism. I really do. However, when I turn on the TV and waste a few hours of a Saturday watching them, all that optimism disappears. Maybe blame finals. December Saturdays after football season are sleepy in South Bend. We all know this. The beginnings of the Freeman Era have sucked up most of the campus oxygen. Hopefully, that’s it. This is just a doldrum before running through an ACC conference that features only two currently ranked teams. Right?

The numbers don’t create any warm, fuzzy feelings. Ken Pomeroy’s model projects 9 conference wins. Look at this stretch in February:

KenPom February Projections

Projections from kenpom.com

Should leave a hell of an impression on the selection committee.

This is where I struggle wildly with Brey. If you’ve known me for a while, you’ll know there are themes of frustration. The wasted timeouts after made baskets and adjacent to media stoppages are maddening. The unwillingness to develop a roster that has more the 7 playable guys at any time is tough to take. Maybe I’m just still bitter about that Xavier loss in 2001. I want so badly to see some defensive improvement and some focus on rebounding technique. I’ve tried to come to some state of peace. Tried to accept that a fun offense is worth some frustrations in other facets of the game. I even wrote odes to his offensive prowess and professed turning my attitude around. I talked about him building an ACC powerhouse on this website. I gave him credit for a lot of late game heroics in a video breakdown.

Maybe I need to go back and listen to CW’s amazing philosophy of fandom pod again, because when I watch ND hoops, I want to scream at my TV. Against both Syracuse and Marquette, you see the same themes bearing out. For so long, people slurped up the “get-old-stay-old” ways. Brey professed his short bench was the key to keeping turnovers down. Shaka Smart came to town with a team that went 8 deep with 2 freshman and 3 sophomores. They turned it over on 5% of their possessions. ND gave it away 16% of the time in that same game. Syracuse ran out 2 freshman and a sophomore in their road trip to South Bend. ND turned it over 17% of the time. The Orange coughed it up on 7% of possessions.

I wish it was just a statistical thing and I could feel hope watching the team. I don’t. Defensively, they just don’t have an answer for interior athleticism. Athletic bigs are the key to the modern game, and ND just can’t handle them. It is worrisome that between Zona, Campbell, and Sanders ND doesn’t have another playable big body to give them something on defense.

I suppose you could argue that defense doesn’t really matter when your philosophy is to be so good on offense, your efficiency wins out in the end. Cool cool. I’m all for this. So what’s the offensive philosophy then? Both Syracuse (82nd) and Marquette (64th) are above-average defenses. Each play unique styles that can be tough for younger teams. I want to write this off as unlucky, but this is an old team. They have more than enough veteran leadership to be able to carve up a 2-3 zone they’ve seen a bunch of times. They put at least 4 guys on the court that should be above average ball handlers and passers. In theory, they should turn Marquette’s pressure against them. Instead, they looked clueless against both.

Rather than rail against individual players, I look at how they’re being put in position to succeed. To be fair, players have to execute, and there have been untold failures in execution. I haven’t had the stomach to go back and watch both games, but in real time, I noted a disturbing number of possessions that featured no weakside movement at all. I watch enough NBA to know that modern offenses frequently leave the weak side guys in the corner and at the break to promote spacing. The key to this modern offensive philosophy is having a set of guys on the strong side that can stress a defense with pick-and-roll (PnR) or dribble hand-off (DHO) action. ND hasn’t developed this yet. There isn’t an Irish combination that scares a defense enough to commit a help defender. If the weak side defenders can confidently stay home on shooters, it is tough to generate good offense. Instead, you get a bunch of perimeter passes and weave motion 28 feet from the rim. With a rotation that features the fewest bench minutes in the country (by a whopping 4 percentage points), you can’t afford to run and play in transition. Without a PnR/DHO combo that distorts a defense, you need some motion. Two guys resting on the weak side isn’t a luxury this team can afford. Modern NBA offenses at least roll a guy through the dunker spot or back-cut the strong-side corner guy. ND is content to just roll off most of the shot clock above the 3 point line. The ball isn’t touching the paint on a drive or post entry against good defensive teams. To borrow from soccer, if you can’t disorganize the defense with the ball, you need to do it with player motion. You need pin downs or flashes on the weak side to generate some easier looks. Maybe my confirmation bias prevents it, but I’m just not seeing it.

The offense looks out of whack. The defense looks to be in that bottom 2/3rds of the country again. Help me Irish fans. Fandom should be about optimism and hope. Someone somewhere must be seeing that ray of light. Someone must see a map that includes a path to a bid and some fun basketball. Please share it with me and with us all. I could use it.


So that Georgia loss, huh?  Well, that pretty much seals any dreams of this group riding into March glory. Much of what you read above held true in Atlanta. There was a lot more weak side player movement, but it resulted in the second worst offensive efficiency of the season. There were a few feeble attempts at pin-downs, but the guy being screened for did nothing to set them up. The screeners often whiffed and it did nothing to stress Georgia’s defense. The Irish couldn’t even muster a point per possession against the Bulldogs. The 22% turnover rate is pretty impressive for such a veteran team. While there was indeed more movement, the offense still seems to be built around nothing. The primary motion seems to be a guy taking 2 non-threatening dribbles towards the elbow and kicking it out to someone 24 feet from the rim. Repeat that for about 25’ish seconds of the shot clock and hope for the best. Even a little bit of pressure seems to rattle this team, although they did find a few scant transition buckets against pressure Sunday.

The “defense” just kinda is what it is. If you have athletic bigs, there’s just nothing ND can do. If ND somehow manages to stay in front of them to force a tough shop, you’ve got a nearly 1-3 chance of rebounding it if you miss it. Marquette had a 39.5% OREB rate and Georgia nabbed 28.6% of their misses.

The pessimist in me is being well fed by these last few performances. While I can possibly see Marquette as an impressive opponent, Georgia doesn’t look like a tournament team. The Bulldogs kicked ND’s ass as completely as the Golden Eagles did last weekend. Please allow me to preempt any shouts of, “MSU!” While it looks good on paper, one has to remember they were coming off three tough games in four days in Portland and were missing their two best players.

If you’re out there and feeling good vibes about all of this, please shout me down. What am I not seeing? Am I too spoiled from the good times? Have I set the bar too high?