In Part 1 of this series we looked at the freshmen of the 2020 recruiting class, the impact they made last fall, and their immediate future with Notre Dame. Today we’ll look at the defense where there’s a distinctly different feel to a smaller group that, outside of one player, didn’t make a big impact during the Fighting Irish run to the playoffs in 2020.
Part 1 – Offense CLICK HERE
247 Composite grades are followed by our 18 Stripes grades from our 2020 recruiting review.
Defensive Line
Jordan Botelho
247C: 0.947
18S: 94.3
Botelho was largely limited to special teams in 2020, including THAT crushing end zone hit on the poor USF punter early in the season. He was ideally suited to this role as a freshman as a mobile, fast lineman with a mean streak. But, that mean streak reportedly brought some struggles within the program that tested his fit in South Bend but have been ironed out for the better moving forward.
Stock: Up
Everything is lining up for Botelho to be a major contributor in his second season on campus. He’s at worst the backup at weak-side end, potentially a starter, and a flexible enough player with the speed and agility to become a major weapon in Freeman’s new defense.
Rylie Mills
247C: 0.930
18S: 86.8
There were times last year during a tight game when I’d notice big #99 on the field and that’s a huge compliment for Mike Elston to trust him amongst so many veteran players. Mills only totaled 7 tackles on the season but picked up at least 0.5 tackles for loss in each of the last 3 regular season games.
Stock: Up
Mills doesn’t play as glamorous of a position as Botelho and will need to continue working on his physicality in the trenches behind an experienced senior. However, he’s one of those players who could really jump out to fans who aren’t paying super close attention to the entire roster. Plus, during the spring game he saw some time on the edge which adds to his allure as possible impact player in 2021.
Aidan Keanaaina
247C: 0.887
18S: 86.3
We still haven’t seen much from Keanaaina in his short career so our comments will be brief. He’s an absolute unit (listed at 6’3″ and 312 pounds) with a very different profile to every other defensive linemen on the team. At his weight, he’s the 3rd heaviest player on the entire team and he’s 16 pounds heavier than the 2nd biggest defensive lineman (Hinish) up front.
Stock: Down
We’ll see how Keanaaina develops in the coming months but for now he appears to be towards the bottom of the depth chart and shouldn’t have an impact in 2021. I think we can realistically assess his position once the veteran Hinish finishes his career and nose guard reps open up a bit more.
Alexander Ehrensberger
247C: 0.841
18S: 80.0
The big German made only 2 tackles last year in extremely limited duty but came away with 1 sack and a tackle for loss in those opportunities. If he gets full playing time, my goodness, he’s on pace for something like 87 sacks and 194 tackles for loss in a season! That’s just the numbers!
Stock: Steady
Ehrensberger is just a shade under 6’7″ and looks like an animate marble sculpture prowling the football field and yet he’s only listed at 252 pounds. I had imagined he’d be growing into a Jumbo end and it’s possible we’re another year away from that happening. He’s so tall and came in with so little experience that this project looks to continue.
Linebacker
***FILE NOT FOUND***
Corner
Caleb Offord
247C: 0.877
18S: 84.0
To date, the Composite and 18 Stripes grades are inverted compared to the pecking order for these 3 corners heading into 2021. Following spring practice, it seems as though Offord is at best the No. 5 corner on the team and that’s largely before the 2021 freshmen make a serious move during August camp.
Stock: Down
It’s funny because not that long ago it seemed like any young corner could shoot up the depth chart but this spring solidified the group a little more than we imagined was possible after the 2020 season. Offord (184 pounds) doesn’t seem like a candidate to move to safety and will have to fight for more playing time at corner.
Ramon Henderson
247C: 0.870
18S: 83.0
The situation for Henderson isn’t all that different from his classmate Offord, although during spring practice it seemed as though the former was more impactful and stuck out more to us all. Like Offord, he brings good length at 6’1″ but is still on the lighter side (189 pounds) to bring positional flexibility at safety.
Stock: Steady
Long-term I still like Henderson to out-perform his 18 Stripes grade. I’ve been talking about him switching to safety for so long that it feels like he’s older than a 2020 recruit. He could make a small impact this fall but he’s probably ready for a big jump in 2022.
Clarence Lewis
247C: 0.864
18S: 82.5
Our second lowest rated recruit on defense, and from the entire 2020 class in fact, earned a starting job at corner in his first year on campus. What an amazing story! Lewis finished 5th on the team in tackles while breaking up 7 passes and forcing 1 fumble. He was also named ACC defensive back of the week for his 12 tackle performance against Syracuse.
Stock: Up, Significantly
It remains to be seen if Lewis will develop into a dominant corner or if 2020 was a case of a mature freshman with a higher floor capable of stepping into a thin depth chart. At any rate, he’s already incredibly experienced and will get the opportunity to show us how much he can raise his ceiling in the coming years.
Safety
***FILE NOT FOUND***
Recap
Only 7 defensive recruits in this class is quite shocking. The 2022 class yet to sign is already at 6 defenders. The decision to skip linebacker and safety has been debated endlessly leading up to this class coming to Notre Dame and in the months that have since past. In a vacuum, this is far from a championship-level defensive class.
Lewis being a freshman gem has provided a quick boost to a modest group. Botelho and Mills should provide further positive signs this upcoming year. Still, how much more can we expect from such a small group that wasn’t exactly teeming with blue-chip recruits?
This really paints a picture that, despite Lea’s brilliance in game planning and adjustments, recent years’ defensive recruiting was not as good as most fans wanted.
Yeah, the immediate improvement in recruiting after Lea left is a major red flag in terms of his potentially becoming ND’s head coach down the line. He was #1 on The Athletic’s poll of “who should be ND’s next coach” this time last year, and this year he’s #4, which actually seems too high. (Marcus Freeman was the new #1, which seems *way* too high for today… but also he might be the right answer?)
Love everything Freeman has done, but I’d like to see him, you know, coach a game above the Gof5 level first before anointing him.
I know everyone is in love with the idea of the guy who can crank up recruiting, but is a defensive-oriented coach the wave of the future? Maybe the answer is yes, but I don’t get the sense Freeman is a slam dunk match, even though the best case scenario is a very good one.
IMO, right now, the most reasonable/realistic choice is Matt Campbell.
I agree about waiting to anoint him until after he coaches a few games at the P5 level. However, I don’t think it really matters whether a head coach is a “defense” guy or an “offense” guy. Nick Saban is a “defense” guy and look at what Alabama did last year on offense.
Most head coaches are more like CEOs at this point. They manage and coach but they can’t afford to micromanage to the point of running the offense or defense. Kelly has learned this and the on field team and program overall have greatly benefited from him not calling plays and being so involved in the offense day to day.
So, just because Freeman is a “defensive” coach should not be a concern at all. I think that the ability to hold coaches and player accountable, building a culture, and recruiting are all more important than Xs and Os in choosing a head coach in modern college football
I don’t really think it fair to use Saban as a template for where Notre Dame is right now. You’re not wrong, but I just don’t think it’s that applicable.
I have the same hesitations about making Lea HC as well with his defensive base and unproven offensive scheme/coaching. I get he can be the CEO or get an excellent OC to make it up and that’s all well and good…
I’m just saying my personal future coaching IDEAL candidate is one with an offensive background and philosophy and going to be able to hit the ground running with it. I’d be more for a Campbell, Fleck, Billy Napier type that’s a proven HC with an offensive mind rather than a really good DC (Lea) or a really good recruiting DC that also is likely a solid coach (Freeman).
And that’s fair. I agree the Saban example was a bit off the deep end, I was just pulling out the first defensive minded coach that came to mind.
I think that more than anything ND needs a top notch recruiter. We are seeing that on the field results will get us in the ear of top recruits but we have to also finish and close the deal.
I’m just saying I’m expanding the thought to say ND needs a top notch OFFENSIVE recruiter. Is an elite QB and WR going to come to ND for Freeman? Maybe, maybe it’s not as much of a draw. I think it’s easier for Dabo and Lincoln Riley and Ryan Day to recruit those guys because they are offensive minds with great offensive systems setup.
If Freeman could get elite players all over the field, then great. I think those top offensive players though aren’t going to have as much of a draw and connection, especially when he’s recruiting against the elite of the sport who have a better offensive resume/system already in place. IMO, that’s the edge a Campbell or Fleck has (in addition to HC experience) because they ought to be able to scale up the offense quicker, which is really what drives championships.
OK, I get what you are saying. I tend to disagree a bit in that I think an elite recruiter will impact both sides of the ball but you make a good point.
I don’t really think that matters too much, or at least that it’s coincidental that Day and Riley are guys with offensive backgrounds. Day owes about 95% of his success to Urb’s template, anyway. I mean, Kirby Smart is a former DC who is recruiting as well as basically anyone right now. Frankly, I would rather have a great defensive mind in charge, because it seems like you can throw a rock and hit some hot new OC moving up the college ranks nowadays.
Still not enamored with Campbell, either. Maybe it’s because Lea made him look like Kevin Rogers, but his offenses don’t do much for me. And Fleck? No thanks.
Is Campbell a “proven HC” at this point? He’s had 1 good season above the G5 level. I do understand he’s not coaching at a traditional power, but even in his very best season, Iowa State lost 3 games (one to a G5 team), won 2 games by just a field goal, and won 2 other games by a single TD. A 10 win year in 2021 would probably change my mind, but I’ve just never been overly impressed by any unit he puts on a field. Solid coach, sure. But a guy who could take ND to the next level? I have serious doubts.
If he was known as an elite recruiter, or if he was putting together consistently elite offenses, I would feel much better about him.
Per Ari Wasserman in The Athletic: Iowa State was No. 57 in the 247Sports Team Talent Composite and nearly won the Big 12.
Yeah, I think he’s a good coach and proven HC that can get the most out of his talent.
Also from Wasserman, “If you look at the 10-year period from 2011 to 2020, Iowa State’s average class ranked No. 57, with a high of No. 46 in 2019 and 2020.”
So he’s improved the recruiting. But given location, facilities, he’s never going to make them a top-10 operation, but that doesn’t mean a lot negative.
I get on the economies of scale that taking Iowa State from 57 -> 46 is a lot different than taking ND from ~9 -> top 5 but it’s a bet I’d be fairly comfortable in making, much more-so than promoting a DC with no HC experience (Lea last year, Freeman this year) to be HC.
I guess I don’t understand the support for the likes of Riley and Day without also acknowledging that they are both first-time HCs. Successful programs like this have apparently decided in recent years that continuity is the most important consideration in hiring a new coach. That familiarity is even more important at a school like ND than elsewhere. Going outside of the program, for Campbell or whoever, is akin to deciding to reinvent the wheel. Given ND’s recent trend, that would seem to be taking a risk that’s not necessary if there’s a promising, attractive candidate already on staff who knows the lay of the land and can offer the potential for such continuity.
Continuity can be a consideration. I don’t necessarily think ND needs to hire an outsider or an experienced coach next, I’d just prefer one with an offensive background and strengths in that department over knowing the landscape of Notre Dame. Clark Lea was an outsider once. Freeman was until this year. Kelly was new and he learned how to navigate the way Notre Dame operates. I don’t see that as a huge hurdle or the determining factor.
Obviously I agree that it will be important that the next HC is a style/culture fit for the program and that is an element that someone like Lea who knows the university/athletic department and they know him, that’s a plus and in play. I can see that. I’m just saying the best way for ND to win a championship is probably to have an offensive-minded coach that will sell a vision of recruiting/developing elite offensive players. That’s how they get to the next level.