Since Notre Dame and Alabama met for the 2012 BCS National Championship a lot has transpired. The Irish will soon be picking their 4th new defensive coordinator as Clark Lea soon heads to Vanderbilt and they are already on their 4th new offensive coordinator since that fateful night in Miami. Alabama has changed offensive coordinators on 5 different occasions (Steve Sarkisian is currently back in his second stint) and are on their 3rd defensive coordinator since Kirby Smart took the Georgia job in 2016.

Notre Dame feels like it’s a more complete and better program today than 8 years ago and yet Las Vegas has the spread nearly twice as large as that fateful 2012 meeting. This makes the Fighting Irish the biggest underdog in College Football Playoff history.

Notre Dame (+20) vs. Alabama

College Football Playoff Semifinal 
The Rose Bowl Game
AT&T Stadium
Arlington, Texas
Date: Friday, January 1, 2021
Time: 4:00 PM ET
TV: ESPN

Most across the country are giving Notre Dame zero shot to win, or even stay competitive with Alabama. Is it possible the Irish can actually spring the upset? Are the Crimson Tide mortal or are they in fact a machine? First some (not so) fun facts about Nick Saban and his time in Tuscaloosa.

The 7 Unbelievable Facts About Alabama Under Saban
The Trophy Case

Alabama has won the following since Nick Saban took over in 2007: 5 National Championships, 7 SEC Championships, 11 SEC West Division Titles, 12 Bowl/Playoff Wins including the Independence, Capital One, Cotton, Peach, Sugar, Orange, and Citrus bowl trophies.

His players have won the following individual awards: 2 Bednarik Awards, 2 Biletnikoff Awards, 1 Nakurski Award, 3 Butkus Awards, 2 Doak Walker Awards, 3 Maxwell Awards, 4 Outland Trophies, 2 Rimington Trophies, 2 Walter Camp Awards, and 2 Heisman Trophies.

Plus, his assistants have won 3 Broyles Awards, and Saban himself has taken home 2 Walter Camp Head Coach of the Year Awards.

Consecutive Seasons of 10+ Wins: 13

With their 52-3 win over Arkansas on December 12th this year, Alabama clinched their 13th straight season with at least 10 wins. They now trail the all-time record by one season set by Florida State from 1987 to 2000.

As an aside, Notre Dame’s opponent in the ACC Championship Game 2 weeks ago (Clemson) clinched their 10th straight season of at least 10 wins which moves them into 2nd place all-time past Texas from 2001 to 2009.

Winning Streak Against Unranked Teams: 99

While Notre Dame has a nice streak going in this department stretching to 34 games since the 2016 loss to Navy, the Crimson Tide currently enjoy their NCAA-record by 27 games over the previous record holders.

Alabama’s last loss to an unranked opponent came on November 17, 2007 which as of this writing was 4,793 days ago.

Consecutive Games with 35+ Points: 24

The previous major college football record in this department was owned by Oregon from 2011-12 when the Darron Thomas to Marcus Mariota transition at quarterback yielded 15 straight games with at least 35 points.

Alabama has gone nearly 2 full seasons scoring at least 35 points in every game having done so in 24 straight games, 28 out of their last 29 games, and 36 out of their last 39 games stretching back to the beginning of the 2018 season. The Tide currently lead the Power 5 in nationally scoring at 49.7 points per game.

Notre Dame’s best streak in this department was a 4-game stretch set at the end of last year’s regular season.

Consecutive Seasons Holding Opponents Under 20 PPG: 13

Alabama gave up 46 points points in the SEC Championship Game and 48 points to Ole Miss earlier this season, tying last year for the exact same amount of points allowed  in 2 separate games as the most in the Saban era. Since 2007, the Tide have allowed at least 40 points on 13 different occasions.

However, throughout 2020 they have only allowed 120 points in their 9 other games and at 19.5 points per game are currently in their 13th straight season keeping opponents under 20 points.

Top 150 Recruits 2016-2021: 83

Over their last 6 recruiting classes–including the group they just signed for 2021–the Crimson Tide have inked 83 players who were inside the Composite Top 150. From that group they have the following at each position: 3 quarterbacks, 7 running backs, 11 receivers, 0 tight ends, 11 offensive linemen, 21 defensive linemen, 13 linebackers, 15 defensive backs, and 2 athletes.

Over that same time span, Notre Dame has recruited 31 players in the top 150: 2 quarterbacks, 1 running back, 5 receivers, 3 tight ends, 10 offensive linemen, 3 defensive linemen, 4 linebackers, 3 defensive backs, and 0 athletes.

Alabama’s current senior class from the 2017 cycle featured 19 players from the Top 150 rankings.

NFL Draft Picks 2011-20: 85

Brian Kelly took over the Irish ahead of the 2010 season so he’s had 10 NFL classes to his name. Over those years, Notre Dame has 45 NFL selections with 9 first round picks, 9 second round picks, and 6 third round picks.

Coming out of Tuscaloosa, the Tide have achieved 85 total NFL selections since 2011 with 30 first round picks, 17 second rounds picks, and 7 third round picks. That is more 1st round picks in a 10-year span than Notre Dame has overall since 1979.

Alabama’s Offense

The Tide have a goofy, skinny quarterback who isn’t a big running threat but don’t be fooled, this isn’t your older brother’s Alabama offense. Before we talk about some numbers, a major strength of this offense is their experience.

Senior left tackle Alex Leatherwood (6’6″ 312 lbs.) is in his 3rd year of starting and a 1st-team AP All-American who is projected to be one of the top players at his position taken in the upcoming NFL Draft. Next to him at guard, 5th-year senior Deonte Brown (6’4″ 350 lbs.) has been starting since half way through 2018.

Alabama was dealt a blow in the SEC Championship when Rimington Award finalist, 1st-team AP All-American, former Florida State transfer, 2-year starter, and 5th-year senior center Landon Dickerson (6’6″ 325 lbs.) tore up his knee. He is likely to be replaced by 5th-year senior Chris Owens (6’3″ 315 lbs.) who has a few starts to his career as a backup.

At right tackle, true sophomore Evan Neal (6’7″ 360 lbs.) started all of last year at left guard and was a freshman All-American. The only new starter is redshirt sophomore right guard Emil Ekiyor (6’3″ 324 lbs.) who dealt with some injuries last season. This is an absolutely massive offensive line that will pose a major physical threat to the Irish defensive front.

Following in the footsteps of Tua Tagovailoa at quarterback has been redshirt junior Mac Jones who came in the same class as the current Miami Dolphins signal-caller following a 2016 summer flip from Kentucky. To say Jones has exceeded expectations is to put it mildly. His current 202.34 quarterback rating slightly edges out last year’s all-time mark set by Joe Burrow (201.96) as Jones leads the nation in completion percentage (76.5%) and yards per attempt (11.4) while being second in passing yards (3,739) and tied for 3rd in touchdowns (32). Jones is a finalist for the Davey O’Brien Trophy, Maxwell Award, Walter Camp Award, and Heisman Trophy while being named a 1st-team AP All-American.

Alabama doesn’t use a ton of depth at running back. Former No. 1 running back from the 2019 class Trey Sanders missed last year with injury and has been out for the bulk of 2020, too. They are giving minimal carries to true freshmen Jase McClellan and Roydell Williams but rely heavily upon seniors Najee Harris and Brian Robinson.

Running back Harris in the passing game. 

Harris has been patient while sharing the backfield with Damien Harris, Josh Jacobs, and Bo Scarborough early in his career. Since 2019, he’s grabbed the starting role and has 2,486 rushing yards, 620 receiving yards, and 47 total touchdowns over the past 2 years while becoming the all-time top rusher in Alabama history. The former No. 1 running back recruit from 2017 is a finalist for the Doak Walk Award, Walter Camp Award, and Heisman Trophy in addition to being a 1st-team AP All-American.

The Tide tight ends won’t get a lot of publicity but 5th year senior Miller Forristall has caught 20 passes while sophomore Jahleel Billingsly has grabbed 12 catches.

Who will get a lot of publicity is senior wideout Devonta Smith who has led Alabama in receiving yardage for the past 2 years despite sharing the field with a pair of 1st round picks last year (Henry Ruggs & Jerry Jeudy) and has absolutely exploded in 2020. Through 11 games, Smith has 98 catches for 1,511 yards and 17 touchdowns. He’s 1st-team AP All-American as well as a finalist for the Biletnikoff Award, Maxwell Award, Walter Camp Award, and is currently the odds-on favorite (-240 as of Wednesday this week) to be the first non-quarterback or running back to win the Heisman since 1997 and the first receiver since 1991.

Sophomore John Metchie III (44 receptions, 782 yards, 6 touchdowns) is having a heck of a year, too. Additionally, redshirt sophomore Slade Bolden (19 receptions, 232 yards) has been in the mix after not playing much earlier in the year.

Davonta Smith blocks for a bubble then releases on a slant for a TD.

Somehow, junior Jaylen Waddle was having a better year than Devonta Smith before breaking his ankle on the opening kickoff against Tennessee. In just 4 games he had 557 yards on 25 catches (22.2 average!) but despite rumors that he’s nearing full health it’s unlikely he’ll suit up against Notre Dame.

In addition to leading the Power 5 in scoring, Alabama is tied for 1st nationally in rushing touchdowns, a hundredth of a percent behind BYU for the best yards per play in the nation, the top team in 3rd down conversions, and have scored touchdowns on 76% of their red zone opportunities with a nationally-leading 7 passing plays of at least 60 yards.

Alabama’s Defense

Unlike the Tide offense, the defensive side of the ball is a lot more inexperienced, young, and struggled a lot (relative to their standards) earlier this season. Out of the 17 players who have made starts in 2020 so far, 9 are either true freshmen or true sophomores. However, not a single one of those 17 players were under .900 Composite recruits and 12 were at .950 or higher.

Anchoring the middle of their 3-4 defense is sophomore nose guard DJ Dale (6’3″ 307 lbs.) who is a very similar player to Clemson’s Tyler Davis who the Irish just faced. He’s flanked on each side by redshirt junior LaBryan Ray (6’5″ 295 lbs.) and sophomore Justin Egoigbe (6’5″ 285 lbs.) while redshirt junior Phidarian Mathis (6’4″ 312 lbs.), sophomore Byron Young (6’3″ 292 lbs.), freshman Tim Smith (6’4″ 320 lbs.), and redshirt sophomore Christian Barmore (6’5″ 310 lbs.) also play extensively. Obviously, just a ton of size and space eating, although Barmore (6 sacks) is the most disruptive and made 1st-team All SEC as well as 3rd-team AP All-American.

Senior Dylan Moses (68 tackles, 6.5 TFL) runs things from the Mike linebacker position coming off ACL surgery that caused him to miss 2019 but was named 3rd-team AP All-American, while redshirt junior Christopher Allen (35 tackles, 12 TFL, 6 sacks) and sophomore Christian Harris (68 tackles, 7 TFL, 4.5 sacks) are also on patrol in the middle.

Starting at the pass-rushing Jack position is true freshman Will Anderson (43 tackles, 10.5 TFL, 7 sacks) who has been blowing up lately with 2 tackles for loss in each of his last 3 games and was named a freshman All-American.

Florida targeted Alabama nickel corners extensively. 

In the secondary, the Tide are led by junior corner Patrick Surtain II who is SEC Defensive Player of the Year, 1st-team AP All-American, and a finalist for the Bednarik, Thorpe, and Nagurki Awards. He’s started every game of his career in Tuscaloosa. At the other corner spot is junior Josh Jobe who leads the team with 11 passes broken up. These will be the best 2 corners Notre Dame has faced this year by a long shot.

From the safety position, the Tide have sophomore Jordan Battle and redshirt junior Daniel Wright with Tide fans being highly critical of the latter this year in coverage and as a tackler. Alabama also plays true freshman Malachi Moore and true freshman Brian Branch in nickel coverage. They are super high on Moore especially but I noticed Florida picked on both of these nickels continuously in the SEC Championship Game. Although Surtain gave up a 50-yard touchdown (he was in great position but shockingly didn’t make a play on the ball) I’d estimate over 300 of Kyle Trask’s 408 passing yards came against Moore, Branch, or linebackers in coverage.

While Alabama’s offense seems invincible (averaging an additional 1 yard per play and 11 more points per game better than the meeting against Notre Dame in 2012, yikes) their defense has shown itself to be mortal. Of course, the game has changed in favor of offense and the Tide are giving up over 8 more points per game and nearly a full yard per play more than in 2012.

They are ‘merely’ the #11 ranked defense according to F/+ which is 2 spots lower than Notre Dame.

Prediction

Notre Dame comes into this game as the heaviest underdog in the 7-year history of the College Football Playoffs and as suspected no one is giving the Irish a chance on New Year’s Day. Upsets do happen, even to Alabama, but the Crimson Tide are strong enough that even a cover for Notre Dame would seem admirable.

Be that as it may, we’ll discuss the ways in which Notre Dame could win.

#1 Alabama Overlooks Notre Dame

This is potentially a historic upset in the making and it would require Alabama to be switched off and so incredibly confident that it would lead to one of their worst efforts under Nick Saban. Of course, this seems unlikely as being locked in has been perhaps the hallmark of Saban’s Alabama teams, especially when a National Championship is on the line.

Shockingly, Alabama has only been an underdog twice (5-points to 2009 Florida and 1.5-points to 2015 Georgia) over their last 164 games stretching back to 2009 and they won both games. Alabama hasn’t lost as an underdog since it faced the Tim Tebow-led Florida Gators in the 2008 SEC Championship Game.

That means, when the Tide do lose it’s almost always as a favorite. We have hope!

Saban Losses Since 2013

(Opponent spread in parentheses) 

2019 LSU (+6) 46-41 Loss
2019 Auburn (+3.5) 48-45 Loss
2018 Clemson (+6) 44-16 Loss
2017 Auburn (+5) 26-14 Loss
2016 Clemson (+7) 35-31 Loss
2015 Ole Miss (+7) 43-37 Loss
2014 Ole Miss (+6) 23-17 Loss
2014 Ohio State (+9.5) 42-35 Loss
2013 Auburn (+9.5) 34-28 Loss
2013 Oklahoma (+13) 45-31 Loss

However, this also means Alabama has never lost over this time period as such a heavy favorite as they will be against Notre Dame. You’d have to go back to their loss in Saban’s first year to Louisiana-Monroe as 24.5-point favorites since that happened. They haven’t lost to an unranked team since that day leading to their current streak mentioned above.

Irish fans could look to that 2013 loss to Oklahoma in the Sugar Bowl, for example. That was a very large spread and the Sooners kind of shocked the country. Even still, that was after Alabama was out of contention for a National Championship and the Tide still out-gained the Sooners while being -4 in turnovers.

Notre Dame has to hope Alabama plays really poorly and shoots themselves in the foot multiple times. It’s possible the Irish improve upon Alabama’s averages of giving up just under 1.5 sacks and 4 tackles per loss per game but even that may not be enough. A few soul-crushing turnovers from Alabama are likely needed.

#2 Ian Book Becomes Unconscious

Ian Book’s single-game passing yards record is 360 set against New Mexico last year and his best mark against a Power 5 program was the 2018 finale against USC with 352 yards. He’s only eclipsed 300 yards passing in 4 out of his last 25 games with the Irish.

Notre Dame will likely need a career day and then some from Book through the air to beat Alabama.

In the Tide’s 2 close games this year they surrendered 787 yards through the air on just 69 attempts for 11.4 yards per attempt. In their 7 non-Auburn losses since 2013, opponent’s have thrown for an average of 336 yards per game.

Can Ian Book (aka Tom Clements reincarnated) repeat the ’73 Sugar Bowl upset?

Notre Dame, and by extension Ian Book, are going to need to take the offense to a level not seen yet in the Kelly era in big games. Against finishing top 10 opponents (which we’ll include this year’s Clemson games) Notre Dame has averaged 20.7 points per game under Brian Kelly. It’s unlikely the 33 points scored against Clemson earlier this season in regulation will be enough to get a victory over Alabama.

#3 Notre Dame Perfects a Shortened Game

It’s possible that Notre Dame can craft an Auburn-like gameplan and upset Alabama in that fashion. In the Tigers’ 3 wins over Saban in recent years they’ve averaged only 170 passing yards and yet still pulled it off. This would require an excellent running gameplan that can grind out first downs and scores touchdown in big moments. It’d also mean the Notre Dame defense keeps Alabama under 30 points, most likely.

It would also require plenty of weirdness involving missed field goals, a replay booth review that makes no sense but goes against Alabama, a couple long drives that end up with no points for the Tide, and of course turnover luck. Something like Alabama driving 80 yards but failing on 4th down & 2 inside the Irish 10-yard line while Notre Dame takes the ball 65 yards the other way only to miss a field goal. In that scenario, it’s a win for the Irish if no one scores and clock is burned.

Here are Notre Dame’s biggest issues in the matchup and why Alabama should be confident:

#1 The Secondary May Get Torched

Alabama has to be absolutely salivating at facing a true freshman corner, an under-sized safety whose greatest asset should be not giving up big plays but does so anyway, plus no legit nickel back to patrol the middle of the field.

What is Notre Dame supposed to do? You could play safety Kyle Hamilton in deep coverage over the top but you’re taking away his greatest strength as a disruptor near the line of scrimmage and it’s no guarantee Smith or Metchie won’t take something underneath and run wild anyway.

This goofy looking bastard has been a killer in 2020.

I suspect Clark Lea will take some chances at using Hamilton conservatively but will mostly stick to what he usually does. It’s possible Notre Dame gets a lot of pressure on the quarterback and they are really swarming and making things uncomfortable. Yet, Mac Jones isn’t a super athlete but his game is so similar to Tom Brady in that he moves around in the pocket fantastically even when pressure arises and he has a super quick and confident release. Plus, it doesn’t take long for Alabama’s receivers to get open deep, opponents rarely get the time to get a hand on Jones before the ball is out.

#2 Alabama Takes Away the Run

Of course, Notre Dame would love to stay balanced on offense. If they are self-scouting they likely know Book won’t be able to throw for 450 yards nor will the run game rack up 300 yards. If the previous Clemson game is any indication, Tommy Rees will try to stay aggressive on 1st down.

In the ACC Championship Game, the Irish started off throwing on 1st down early and often with positive results. Book actually opened the game with 9 straight completions on 1st down, including 7 successful passes. In total, Book finished the game 11 of 14 for 139 yards on 1st down.

The problem was Clemson destroyed Notre Dame’s run game on 1st down. The Irish managed just 20 yards on 12 rushing attempts on 1st down. A full 18 of those yards came on a jet sweep hand off to Avery Davis, so the other 11 carries went for just 2 yards. One of those was a bad snap so to be fair it was 10 carries for 7 yards.

This young Alabama defense seemed susceptible to the run early in the season but now they’ve improved dramatically. Since Ole Miss and Georgia had modest-to-quality success running the ball against the Tide in games 3 and 4, they haven’t allowed over 4 yards per carry since and only 2 teams have broken the 100-yard mark.

#3 Not Enough Speed to Test the Edges or Seams

Surtain and Jobe covering Javon McKinley and Ben Skowronek is a big mismatch in favor of the Tide. Book will likely find his top 2 targets blanketed down the sideline and will be hesitant to throw into that coverage. Hopefully, he will at least try some of these throws and hope for big catches or flags thrown.

The question is what can Notre Dame do to take advantage of Alabama’s perceived weakness covering the middle of the field? This could be a big game for tight end Michael Mayer (does he have enough speed to be a threat down field?) but he’ll need some help from fellow tight end Tommy Tremble and definitely from slot receiver Avery Davis. This trio comes into the game averaging 7 catches and 83 yards per game. Notre Dame may need double that production in the Rose Bowl.

Additionally, you have to think the Irish will try and get speedster Chris Tyree involved and use his athleticism too. Whatever happens, Alabama’s scheme will conceded some underneath stuff and rely on their superior athlete to make tackles. The Irish will need to add stress via making the Tide cover the whole width of the field and hope getting vertically upfield will force mistakes in Saban’s masterful “Rip/Liz” pattern matching coverage.

***

While looking back at some comparisons to 2012, I found something that was quite scary. Heading into this Rose Bowl, Notre Dame is sitting at just +0.99 yards per play differential. That’s well below the 2012, 2015, 2017, 2018, and 2019 Irish teams while being slightly better than the 2013 team.

Well, perhaps a lot of that comes down to the schedule. From just 11 games, Notre Dame has already played hyper-elite Clemson twice, which paired with only 1 non Power-5 opponent, hasn’t provided the Irish many opportunities to pad their stats like most years when there is an additional 2 weaker opponents, plus Navy.

Still, the same holds true for Alabama. In most years, they face 2 weaker out of conference opponents plus a FCS challenger prior to the Iron Bowl. That they are currently at +2.79 YPP (versus +2.77 back in 2012) differential in a year where they’ve only played SEC teams exclusively–including the top 3 challengers in the conference while missing the 2 weakest league games–is downright frightening.

I’ve never been more convinced Notre Dame would lose a football game. Brian Kelly has lost by at least 25 points on 5 separate occasions, the first coming in that fateful night in Miami on January 7, 2013. I would bet that it happens again and that the biggest loss (35 points, USC 2014) record for Kelly is much more likely than a valiant cover of the spread. But, this all may come down to how early Alabama decides to take their foot off the gas in anticipation for the College Football Playoff Championship Game.

Notre Dame 13

Alabama 51