Since Notre Dame and Alabama met for the 2012 BCS National Championship a lot has transpired. The Irish will soon be picking their 4th new defensive coordinator as Clark Lea soon heads to Vanderbilt and they are already on their 4th new offensive coordinator since that fateful night in Miami. Alabama has changed offensive coordinators on 5 different occasions (Steve Sarkisian is currently back in his second stint) and are on their 3rd defensive coordinator since Kirby Smart took the Georgia job in 2016.
Notre Dame feels like it’s a more complete and better program today than 8 years ago and yet Las Vegas has the spread nearly twice as large as that fateful 2012 meeting. This makes the Fighting Irish the biggest underdog in College Football Playoff history.
Notre Dame (+20) vs. Alabama
College Football Playoff Semifinal
The Rose Bowl Game
AT&T Stadium
Arlington, Texas
Date: Friday, January 1, 2021
Time: 4:00 PM ET
TV: ESPN
Most across the country are giving Notre Dame zero shot to win, or even stay competitive with Alabama. Is it possible the Irish can actually spring the upset? Are the Crimson Tide mortal or are they in fact a machine? First some (not so) fun facts about Nick Saban and his time in Tuscaloosa.
The 7 Unbelievable Facts About Alabama Under Saban
The Trophy Case
Alabama has won the following since Nick Saban took over in 2007: 5 National Championships, 7 SEC Championships, 11 SEC West Division Titles, 12 Bowl/Playoff Wins including the Independence, Capital One, Cotton, Peach, Sugar, Orange, and Citrus bowl trophies.
His players have won the following individual awards: 2 Bednarik Awards, 2 Biletnikoff Awards, 1 Nakurski Award, 3 Butkus Awards, 2 Doak Walker Awards, 3 Maxwell Awards, 4 Outland Trophies, 2 Rimington Trophies, 2 Walter Camp Awards, and 2 Heisman Trophies.
Plus, his assistants have won 3 Broyles Awards, and Saban himself has taken home 2 Walter Camp Head Coach of the Year Awards.
Consecutive Seasons of 10+ Wins: 13
With their 52-3 win over Arkansas on December 12th this year, Alabama clinched their 13th straight season with at least 10 wins. They now trail the all-time record by one season set by Florida State from 1987 to 2000.
As an aside, Notre Dame’s opponent in the ACC Championship Game 2 weeks ago (Clemson) clinched their 10th straight season of at least 10 wins which moves them into 2nd place all-time past Texas from 2001 to 2009.
Winning Streak Against Unranked Teams: 99
While Notre Dame has a nice streak going in this department stretching to 34 games since the 2016 loss to Navy, the Crimson Tide currently enjoy their NCAA-record by 27 games over the previous record holders.
Alabama’s last loss to an unranked opponent came on November 17, 2007 which as of this writing was 4,793 days ago.
Consecutive Games with 35+ Points: 24
The previous major college football record in this department was owned by Oregon from 2011-12 when the Darron Thomas to Marcus Mariota transition at quarterback yielded 15 straight games with at least 35 points.
Alabama has gone nearly 2 full seasons scoring at least 35 points in every game having done so in 24 straight games, 28 out of their last 29 games, and 36 out of their last 39 games stretching back to the beginning of the 2018 season. The Tide currently lead the Power 5 in nationally scoring at 49.7 points per game.
Notre Dame’s best streak in this department was a 4-game stretch set at the end of last year’s regular season.
Consecutive Seasons Holding Opponents Under 20 PPG: 13
Alabama gave up 46 points points in the SEC Championship Game and 48 points to Ole Miss earlier this season, tying last year for the exact same amount of points allowed in 2 separate games as the most in the Saban era. Since 2007, the Tide have allowed at least 40 points on 13 different occasions.
However, throughout 2020 they have only allowed 120 points in their 9 other games and at 19.5 points per game are currently in their 13th straight season keeping opponents under 20 points.
Top 150 Recruits 2016-2021: 83
Over their last 6 recruiting classes–including the group they just signed for 2021–the Crimson Tide have inked 83 players who were inside the Composite Top 150. From that group they have the following at each position: 3 quarterbacks, 7 running backs, 11 receivers, 0 tight ends, 11 offensive linemen, 21 defensive linemen, 13 linebackers, 15 defensive backs, and 2 athletes.
Over that same time span, Notre Dame has recruited 31 players in the top 150: 2 quarterbacks, 1 running back, 5 receivers, 3 tight ends, 10 offensive linemen, 3 defensive linemen, 4 linebackers, 3 defensive backs, and 0 athletes.
Alabama’s current senior class from the 2017 cycle featured 19 players from the Top 150 rankings.
NFL Draft Picks 2011-20: 85
Brian Kelly took over the Irish ahead of the 2010 season so he’s had 10 NFL classes to his name. Over those years, Notre Dame has 45 NFL selections with 9 first round picks, 9 second round picks, and 6 third round picks.
Coming out of Tuscaloosa, the Tide have achieved 85 total NFL selections since 2011 with 30 first round picks, 17 second rounds picks, and 7 third round picks. That is more 1st round picks in a 10-year span than Notre Dame has overall since 1979.
Alabama’s Offense
The Tide have a goofy, skinny quarterback who isn’t a big running threat but don’t be fooled, this isn’t your older brother’s Alabama offense. Before we talk about some numbers, a major strength of this offense is their experience.
Senior left tackle Alex Leatherwood (6’6″ 312 lbs.) is in his 3rd year of starting and a 1st-team AP All-American who is projected to be one of the top players at his position taken in the upcoming NFL Draft. Next to him at guard, 5th-year senior Deonte Brown (6’4″ 350 lbs.) has been starting since half way through 2018.
Alabama was dealt a blow in the SEC Championship when Rimington Award finalist, 1st-team AP All-American, former Florida State transfer, 2-year starter, and 5th-year senior center Landon Dickerson (6’6″ 325 lbs.) tore up his knee. He is likely to be replaced by 5th-year senior Chris Owens (6’3″ 315 lbs.) who has a few starts to his career as a backup.
At right tackle, true sophomore Evan Neal (6’7″ 360 lbs.) started all of last year at left guard and was a freshman All-American. The only new starter is redshirt sophomore right guard Emil Ekiyor (6’3″ 324 lbs.) who dealt with some injuries last season. This is an absolutely massive offensive line that will pose a major physical threat to the Irish defensive front.
Following in the footsteps of Tua Tagovailoa at quarterback has been redshirt junior Mac Jones who came in the same class as the current Miami Dolphins signal-caller following a 2016 summer flip from Kentucky. To say Jones has exceeded expectations is to put it mildly. His current 202.34 quarterback rating slightly edges out last year’s all-time mark set by Joe Burrow (201.96) as Jones leads the nation in completion percentage (76.5%) and yards per attempt (11.4) while being second in passing yards (3,739) and tied for 3rd in touchdowns (32). Jones is a finalist for the Davey O’Brien Trophy, Maxwell Award, Walter Camp Award, and Heisman Trophy while being named a 1st-team AP All-American.
Alabama doesn’t use a ton of depth at running back. Former No. 1 running back from the 2019 class Trey Sanders missed last year with injury and has been out for the bulk of 2020, too. They are giving minimal carries to true freshmen Jase McClellan and Roydell Williams but rely heavily upon seniors Najee Harris and Brian Robinson.
Running back Harris in the passing game.
Harris has been patient while sharing the backfield with Damien Harris, Josh Jacobs, and Bo Scarborough early in his career. Since 2019, he’s grabbed the starting role and has 2,486 rushing yards, 620 receiving yards, and 47 total touchdowns over the past 2 years while becoming the all-time top rusher in Alabama history. The former No. 1 running back recruit from 2017 is a finalist for the Doak Walk Award, Walter Camp Award, and Heisman Trophy in addition to being a 1st-team AP All-American.
The Tide tight ends won’t get a lot of publicity but 5th year senior Miller Forristall has caught 20 passes while sophomore Jahleel Billingsly has grabbed 12 catches.
Who will get a lot of publicity is senior wideout Devonta Smith who has led Alabama in receiving yardage for the past 2 years despite sharing the field with a pair of 1st round picks last year (Henry Ruggs & Jerry Jeudy) and has absolutely exploded in 2020. Through 11 games, Smith has 98 catches for 1,511 yards and 17 touchdowns. He’s 1st-team AP All-American as well as a finalist for the Biletnikoff Award, Maxwell Award, Walter Camp Award, and is currently the odds-on favorite (-240 as of Wednesday this week) to be the first non-quarterback or running back to win the Heisman since 1997 and the first receiver since 1991.
Sophomore John Metchie III (44 receptions, 782 yards, 6 touchdowns) is having a heck of a year, too. Additionally, redshirt sophomore Slade Bolden (19 receptions, 232 yards) has been in the mix after not playing much earlier in the year.
Davonta Smith blocks for a bubble then releases on a slant for a TD.
Somehow, junior Jaylen Waddle was having a better year than Devonta Smith before breaking his ankle on the opening kickoff against Tennessee. In just 4 games he had 557 yards on 25 catches (22.2 average!) but despite rumors that he’s nearing full health it’s unlikely he’ll suit up against Notre Dame.
In addition to leading the Power 5 in scoring, Alabama is tied for 1st nationally in rushing touchdowns, a hundredth of a percent behind BYU for the best yards per play in the nation, the top team in 3rd down conversions, and have scored touchdowns on 76% of their red zone opportunities with a nationally-leading 7 passing plays of at least 60 yards.
Alabama’s Defense
Unlike the Tide offense, the defensive side of the ball is a lot more inexperienced, young, and struggled a lot (relative to their standards) earlier this season. Out of the 17 players who have made starts in 2020 so far, 9 are either true freshmen or true sophomores. However, not a single one of those 17 players were under .900 Composite recruits and 12 were at .950 or higher.
Anchoring the middle of their 3-4 defense is sophomore nose guard DJ Dale (6’3″ 307 lbs.) who is a very similar player to Clemson’s Tyler Davis who the Irish just faced. He’s flanked on each side by redshirt junior LaBryan Ray (6’5″ 295 lbs.) and sophomore Justin Egoigbe (6’5″ 285 lbs.) while redshirt junior Phidarian Mathis (6’4″ 312 lbs.), sophomore Byron Young (6’3″ 292 lbs.), freshman Tim Smith (6’4″ 320 lbs.), and redshirt sophomore Christian Barmore (6’5″ 310 lbs.) also play extensively. Obviously, just a ton of size and space eating, although Barmore (6 sacks) is the most disruptive and made 1st-team All SEC as well as 3rd-team AP All-American.
Senior Dylan Moses (68 tackles, 6.5 TFL) runs things from the Mike linebacker position coming off ACL surgery that caused him to miss 2019 but was named 3rd-team AP All-American, while redshirt junior Christopher Allen (35 tackles, 12 TFL, 6 sacks) and sophomore Christian Harris (68 tackles, 7 TFL, 4.5 sacks) are also on patrol in the middle.
Starting at the pass-rushing Jack position is true freshman Will Anderson (43 tackles, 10.5 TFL, 7 sacks) who has been blowing up lately with 2 tackles for loss in each of his last 3 games and was named a freshman All-American.
Florida targeted Alabama nickel corners extensively.
In the secondary, the Tide are led by junior corner Patrick Surtain II who is SEC Defensive Player of the Year, 1st-team AP All-American, and a finalist for the Bednarik, Thorpe, and Nagurki Awards. He’s started every game of his career in Tuscaloosa. At the other corner spot is junior Josh Jobe who leads the team with 11 passes broken up. These will be the best 2 corners Notre Dame has faced this year by a long shot.
From the safety position, the Tide have sophomore Jordan Battle and redshirt junior Daniel Wright with Tide fans being highly critical of the latter this year in coverage and as a tackler. Alabama also plays true freshman Malachi Moore and true freshman Brian Branch in nickel coverage. They are super high on Moore especially but I noticed Florida picked on both of these nickels continuously in the SEC Championship Game. Although Surtain gave up a 50-yard touchdown (he was in great position but shockingly didn’t make a play on the ball) I’d estimate over 300 of Kyle Trask’s 408 passing yards came against Moore, Branch, or linebackers in coverage.
While Alabama’s offense seems invincible (averaging an additional 1 yard per play and 11 more points per game better than the meeting against Notre Dame in 2012, yikes) their defense has shown itself to be mortal. Of course, the game has changed in favor of offense and the Tide are giving up over 8 more points per game and nearly a full yard per play more than in 2012.
They are ‘merely’ the #11 ranked defense according to F/+ which is 2 spots lower than Notre Dame.
Prediction
Notre Dame comes into this game as the heaviest underdog in the 7-year history of the College Football Playoffs and as suspected no one is giving the Irish a chance on New Year’s Day. Upsets do happen, even to Alabama, but the Crimson Tide are strong enough that even a cover for Notre Dame would seem admirable.
Be that as it may, we’ll discuss the ways in which Notre Dame could win.
#1 Alabama Overlooks Notre Dame
This is potentially a historic upset in the making and it would require Alabama to be switched off and so incredibly confident that it would lead to one of their worst efforts under Nick Saban. Of course, this seems unlikely as being locked in has been perhaps the hallmark of Saban’s Alabama teams, especially when a National Championship is on the line.
Shockingly, Alabama has only been an underdog twice (5-points to 2009 Florida and 1.5-points to 2015 Georgia) over their last 164 games stretching back to 2009 and they won both games. Alabama hasn’t lost as an underdog since it faced the Tim Tebow-led Florida Gators in the 2008 SEC Championship Game.
That means, when the Tide do lose it’s almost always as a favorite. We have hope!
Saban Losses Since 2013
(Opponent spread in parentheses)
2019 LSU (+6) 46-41 Loss
2019 Auburn (+3.5) 48-45 Loss
2018 Clemson (+6) 44-16 Loss
2017 Auburn (+5) 26-14 Loss
2016 Clemson (+7) 35-31 Loss
2015 Ole Miss (+7) 43-37 Loss
2014 Ole Miss (+6) 23-17 Loss
2014 Ohio State (+9.5) 42-35 Loss
2013 Auburn (+9.5) 34-28 Loss
2013 Oklahoma (+13) 45-31 Loss
However, this also means Alabama has never lost over this time period as such a heavy favorite as they will be against Notre Dame. You’d have to go back to their loss in Saban’s first year to Louisiana-Monroe as 24.5-point favorites since that happened. They haven’t lost to an unranked team since that day leading to their current streak mentioned above.
Irish fans could look to that 2013 loss to Oklahoma in the Sugar Bowl, for example. That was a very large spread and the Sooners kind of shocked the country. Even still, that was after Alabama was out of contention for a National Championship and the Tide still out-gained the Sooners while being -4 in turnovers.
Notre Dame has to hope Alabama plays really poorly and shoots themselves in the foot multiple times. It’s possible the Irish improve upon Alabama’s averages of giving up just under 1.5 sacks and 4 tackles per loss per game but even that may not be enough. A few soul-crushing turnovers from Alabama are likely needed.
#2 Ian Book Becomes Unconscious
Ian Book’s single-game passing yards record is 360 set against New Mexico last year and his best mark against a Power 5 program was the 2018 finale against USC with 352 yards. He’s only eclipsed 300 yards passing in 4 out of his last 25 games with the Irish.
Notre Dame will likely need a career day and then some from Book through the air to beat Alabama.
In the Tide’s 2 close games this year they surrendered 787 yards through the air on just 69 attempts for 11.4 yards per attempt. In their 7 non-Auburn losses since 2013, opponent’s have thrown for an average of 336 yards per game.
Can Ian Book (aka Tom Clements reincarnated) repeat the ’73 Sugar Bowl upset?
Notre Dame, and by extension Ian Book, are going to need to take the offense to a level not seen yet in the Kelly era in big games. Against finishing top 10 opponents (which we’ll include this year’s Clemson games) Notre Dame has averaged 20.7 points per game under Brian Kelly. It’s unlikely the 33 points scored against Clemson earlier this season in regulation will be enough to get a victory over Alabama.
#3 Notre Dame Perfects a Shortened Game
It’s possible that Notre Dame can craft an Auburn-like gameplan and upset Alabama in that fashion. In the Tigers’ 3 wins over Saban in recent years they’ve averaged only 170 passing yards and yet still pulled it off. This would require an excellent running gameplan that can grind out first downs and scores touchdown in big moments. It’d also mean the Notre Dame defense keeps Alabama under 30 points, most likely.
It would also require plenty of weirdness involving missed field goals, a replay booth review that makes no sense but goes against Alabama, a couple long drives that end up with no points for the Tide, and of course turnover luck. Something like Alabama driving 80 yards but failing on 4th down & 2 inside the Irish 10-yard line while Notre Dame takes the ball 65 yards the other way only to miss a field goal. In that scenario, it’s a win for the Irish if no one scores and clock is burned.
Here are Notre Dame’s biggest issues in the matchup and why Alabama should be confident:
#1 The Secondary May Get Torched
Alabama has to be absolutely salivating at facing a true freshman corner, an under-sized safety whose greatest asset should be not giving up big plays but does so anyway, plus no legit nickel back to patrol the middle of the field.
What is Notre Dame supposed to do? You could play safety Kyle Hamilton in deep coverage over the top but you’re taking away his greatest strength as a disruptor near the line of scrimmage and it’s no guarantee Smith or Metchie won’t take something underneath and run wild anyway.
This goofy looking bastard has been a killer in 2020.
I suspect Clark Lea will take some chances at using Hamilton conservatively but will mostly stick to what he usually does. It’s possible Notre Dame gets a lot of pressure on the quarterback and they are really swarming and making things uncomfortable. Yet, Mac Jones isn’t a super athlete but his game is so similar to Tom Brady in that he moves around in the pocket fantastically even when pressure arises and he has a super quick and confident release. Plus, it doesn’t take long for Alabama’s receivers to get open deep, opponents rarely get the time to get a hand on Jones before the ball is out.
#2 Alabama Takes Away the Run
Of course, Notre Dame would love to stay balanced on offense. If they are self-scouting they likely know Book won’t be able to throw for 450 yards nor will the run game rack up 300 yards. If the previous Clemson game is any indication, Tommy Rees will try to stay aggressive on 1st down.
In the ACC Championship Game, the Irish started off throwing on 1st down early and often with positive results. Book actually opened the game with 9 straight completions on 1st down, including 7 successful passes. In total, Book finished the game 11 of 14 for 139 yards on 1st down.
The problem was Clemson destroyed Notre Dame’s run game on 1st down. The Irish managed just 20 yards on 12 rushing attempts on 1st down. A full 18 of those yards came on a jet sweep hand off to Avery Davis, so the other 11 carries went for just 2 yards. One of those was a bad snap so to be fair it was 10 carries for 7 yards.
This young Alabama defense seemed susceptible to the run early in the season but now they’ve improved dramatically. Since Ole Miss and Georgia had modest-to-quality success running the ball against the Tide in games 3 and 4, they haven’t allowed over 4 yards per carry since and only 2 teams have broken the 100-yard mark.
#3 Not Enough Speed to Test the Edges or Seams
Surtain and Jobe covering Javon McKinley and Ben Skowronek is a big mismatch in favor of the Tide. Book will likely find his top 2 targets blanketed down the sideline and will be hesitant to throw into that coverage. Hopefully, he will at least try some of these throws and hope for big catches or flags thrown.
The question is what can Notre Dame do to take advantage of Alabama’s perceived weakness covering the middle of the field? This could be a big game for tight end Michael Mayer (does he have enough speed to be a threat down field?) but he’ll need some help from fellow tight end Tommy Tremble and definitely from slot receiver Avery Davis. This trio comes into the game averaging 7 catches and 83 yards per game. Notre Dame may need double that production in the Rose Bowl.
Additionally, you have to think the Irish will try and get speedster Chris Tyree involved and use his athleticism too. Whatever happens, Alabama’s scheme will conceded some underneath stuff and rely on their superior athlete to make tackles. The Irish will need to add stress via making the Tide cover the whole width of the field and hope getting vertically upfield will force mistakes in Saban’s masterful “Rip/Liz” pattern matching coverage.
***
While looking back at some comparisons to 2012, I found something that was quite scary. Heading into this Rose Bowl, Notre Dame is sitting at just +0.99 yards per play differential. That’s well below the 2012, 2015, 2017, 2018, and 2019 Irish teams while being slightly better than the 2013 team.
Well, perhaps a lot of that comes down to the schedule. From just 11 games, Notre Dame has already played hyper-elite Clemson twice, which paired with only 1 non Power-5 opponent, hasn’t provided the Irish many opportunities to pad their stats like most years when there is an additional 2 weaker opponents, plus Navy.
Still, the same holds true for Alabama. In most years, they face 2 weaker out of conference opponents plus a FCS challenger prior to the Iron Bowl. That they are currently at +2.79 YPP (versus +2.77 back in 2012) differential in a year where they’ve only played SEC teams exclusively–including the top 3 challengers in the conference while missing the 2 weakest league games–is downright frightening.
I’ve never been more convinced Notre Dame would lose a football game. Brian Kelly has lost by at least 25 points on 5 separate occasions, the first coming in that fateful night in Miami on January 7, 2013. I would bet that it happens again and that the biggest loss (35 points, USC 2014) record for Kelly is much more likely than a valiant cover of the spread. But, this all may come down to how early Alabama decides to take their foot off the gas in anticipation for the College Football Playoff Championship Game.
A few thoughts:
1. Eek
2. I really wish we played OSU. Probably a L but a better match up.
3. If we fell from the playoffs, probably would’ve beaten Florida after their showing.
4. This article feels like a methodical and targeted response to ND-Atl’s, lol.
Yeesh. I can’t disagree with you, but it’s rough to see it written out so thoroughly. I think there may be something broken with this sport when the #4 team has absolutely no realistic chance of beating the #1 team, don’t you?
A tiny bit of hope:
In the 2012 Cotton Bowl, Texas A&M, who beat Bama in a close game, boatraced Oklahoma, which was ND’s signature win. I remember watching that game with the sinking feeling that our signature win wasn’t all that good, and that Bama was far better than we realized. Turns out that was right. I know the transitive property isn’t much of a thing in college football, but in that case, it was. A&M beat Oklahoma 41-13; Bama beat ND 42-14.
Watching Oklahoma torch Florida in the Cotton Bowl last night gave me a tiny bit of hope. I know Florida was missing a ton of starters and whatnot, but they looked like complete frauds against one of the most reliably fraudulent teams of the past 5 years. Maybe Bama struggling with an 8-4 team that finished the season with 3 straight losses is a sign of something.
Or maybe not. I’ll say Bama, 45-20.
“I think there may be something broken with this sport when the #4 team has absolutely no realistic chance of beating the #1 team, don’t you?”
Exactly. As I just said below. It’s a tough sport that only a handful of teams can play with the best and everyone else is like 3 notches below.
“I know Florida was missing a ton of starters and whatnot, but they looked like complete frauds against one of the most reliably fraudulent teams of the past 5 years.”
I don’t think this is coherent. The missing a ton of starters (and all it’s main playmakers on offense) that made them look like complete frauds (if indeed they did).
Oh I know it’s not coherent. Just looking for any bit of optimism here.
Yeah, with the way recruiting works it’s like the top handful of teams also pick first in the draft. With Bama’s recruiting it’s not only like they pick first it’s like they get all their picks in the first 3 rounds of the draft
Florida’s entire receiving corps opted out, plus’s a paddle of others on both sides of the ball.
this was the Florida jv team.
I hate this new thing of players abandoning their teammates in bowl games. Sucks.
I don’t think any ND player has ever done that?
(1) So what you are saying is that we need to get very very *very* lucky just to stay in the game. Winning? hahahahaha. That would take an all-time meltdown by the greatest coach in the history of college football at preventing such meltdowns.
(2) How can such a loss not make the season a failure? For the record, I think it can be both a great/fun season and a failure at the same time (in different respects obviously). I know Bama is an all-time powerhouse, but isn’t the goal that we can at least be in the game with them and if we play well (not all-time well) than we could win? We aren’t there. And it’s a failure to still be another notch (or three) below them.
(3) The last point should be obvious by looking at the 247 talent composite (I just found this recently). We aren’t even close. We need to – at the very least – cut our 3 stars in half (replacing them with 4 stars obviously) or take the clemson route where we keep roughly the same # of 3 stars and quintuple our 5 stars (to make it about 10ish total on the roster, so like 2-3 a year).
(4) On the flip side, who else would do much better? (Yes Clemson, yes OSU and Yes, perhaps Georgia with its talent generally speaking). We are genuinely a top 5-7 team (if not legit #4 alone). It’s a tough sport where most basically fail.
Speaking only for myself, I’m not interested in Bama or Clemson anymore, or keeping up with their recruiting, or beating them, or watching them, or anything like that. I don’t care. Put both of them in a box. I don’t care what you do with the box.
The day that duopoly is over cannot come soon enough. Hopefully Saban retires and Bama hires one of his lumpy assistants to replace him, and Dabo becomes a televangelist or something.
That’s tough when one is an independent. What’s the goal then anymore? Can’t be national championships? I get the sentiment I do, but what’s left then as a goal? In that case, one should almost hope *not* to make the playoffs. Go 10-2 most years, play in a big bowl game outside the playoffs.
Pretty much that — winning 10-11 games and winning a major bowl game. Lord knows we have plenty of work to do on that front.
ND is probably going to have to ride out the next 5-10 years as BamaClemson completely dominates the sport in unprecedented ways.
How’d you like to be the poor sucker taking over after Saban leaves? Sausage meat.
Unless it’s Dabo.
I completely agree on your #4. Who would do better? If you look down the list of teams ranked below us the answer is no one. And we will have to see how OSU does against Clemson but at the end of the season we be generally regarded as potentially the #3 team in the country and if not #3 then comfortably #4-7. That in general is a great feeling. We have made huge strides in the last few years to be able to really claim to be in the second echelon of college football.
Of course, the fact that Clemson and Alabama are out of this world programs right now means that we are not elite and that makes it partly a failure. It is disheartening to think about all the progress we have made and to see us as 20 point underdogs.
Clearly we need to take a step up in recruiting. I think that our best strategy is to use our current overall success to zero in on just a few 5 stars each year. Target 5 and hopefully get 2 or 3 each year so that we have roughly 6-8 on the roster at a time. I find it unlikely that we can cut half our 3 stars and replace them with 4 stars b/c of academic/lifestyle challenges at ND but I feel we could convince 1 or 2 more guys per class that are 5 stars.
If we can hang around in the 3-7 range of second echelon teams then perhaps we can catch lightning in a bottle and win a championship like LSU last year and translate it into being perennial elite championship contenders rather than just really good playoff contenders.
Good point about it maybe being easier to get a couple 5 stars each year than the additional 4 stars but I suppose it really only works out to about 4-5 more 4 stars (at least against the average of this years team).
Probably a mix between them is going to be the best bet – absolutely 1 five star every year (and sometimes another) + 2 extra 4 stars every year.
The other thing is obvious but we just need to hit on the QB too. Clemson has made up for it’s roughly equal amount of 3 stars that we have not just because it does have like 10+ 5 stars but because it includes a QB.
Yeah good point. It wouldn’t be a crazy number of flips from 3 to 4 star. I think that getting 2 five stars each year is doable as well as increasing our 4 stars from top 300 range to top 150 range.
You are totally right about Clemson and their QB situation. They simply have had elite QB play for well over a decade. They went from Taj Boyd to DeShaun Watson to Kelly Bryant to Trevor Lawrence and next year DJ U.
Kelly Bryant maybe wasn’t elite but while he threw too many interceptions his stats were pretty good and he was also an effective runner so basically Clemson has had championship or close to championship level QB play for over a decade.
Exactly.
Though it does make this year’s class particularly disappointing. Not one 5 stars, and 12 4 stars with 15 3 stars. Ugh, a step in the wrong direction after a year we go to the playoffs. And after multiple years of 10+ wins.
And we might be 8 right now but a few teams are likely to jump us when some of the higher rated guys finally commit.
Though your are right quality of 4 stars matter but we are just speaking broadly here. E.g. we edge out oklahoma in talent this year despite the fact they have 3 more 5 stars and 1 more 4 star than us. I presume that is because our 4 stars are of a slightly higher value than theirs. So you are right some improvement could be made there.
And I don’t know where else to say this but I can’t get over how Bama has *****70***** 4/5 stars on its roster this year (and so it says 13 3 stars).
We have 46 for comparison. Of course only 3 teams have under 20 3 stars – Bama, Georgia, and OSU. LSU is the only other team in the 20’s with 3 stars.
That’s almost ridiculous and seems unbelievable if it wasn’t true
Feel like this review should be bulletin board material. Irish in postgame interviews after a victory saying: Murtaugh didn’t believe in us and we just wanted to prove him wrong.
I wish this power worked on 10/26/19.
“Since Ole Miss and Georgia had modest-to-quality success running the ball against the Tide in games 3 and 4, they haven’t allowed over 4 yards per carry since and only 2 teams have broken the 100-yard mark.”
I wonder if our man BK has tried calling Lane Kiffin about Bama’s defensive tendencies/weaknesses in run defense. I didn’t watch the game but the box score shows two different Ole Miss RBs with 120+ yards and 2 touchdowns apiece, with long runs of 34 and 23 yards. That is a really solid day against anyone. And those two RBS have 378 yards and 745 yards on the year, total, each. That seems like a “Lane Kiffin knows Nick Saban’s defense” kind of day.
This game is Shaun Crawford’s dream. Tell him to bite on every single out route, every single double move, every single time he thinks there’s a chance to get an interception. Who cares if you get beat and they score in 1 play? If you don’t turn them over, you’re probably going to get beat and they’re going to score in 3 plays.
Press coverage on the receivers, tell the CBs to take chances every time, let the safeties (especially Hamilton) roam wherever they want, trying to make plays on the ball.
Tell the DEs to pass rush every play and not worry about outside contain. Be 100% ok with giving up embarrassing big plays in exchange for making big plays of our own. Then count on Tommy/Book/Kyren to grind out some long possessions.
Basically, play like an underdog, taking lots of risks. But also, try to make Alabama also feel like they have to take risks. If you completely eliminate the short passing game by selling out, maybe Jones takes more sacks or makes mistakes on aggressive deep balls. Sure, odds are he’s probably going to connect on more of them (or Harris might run wild), but the only way we’re winning is by stealing possessions.
Go Irish, Beat Bama. No matter what happens, it was a hell of a season, in the middle of a year where we needed a hell of a season. What these kids dealt with this year is unprecedented, and they deserve to be praised by fans for a long time, regardless of tomorrow’s outcome.
Excellently written. Thank you for picking up on what these Notre Dame student athletes have accomplished. Your last sentence needs to be written on the hearts of all of those in the ND extended family.
Ya Mikey, In what was a shitty year these kids brought me joy for ten Saturdays. We need to remember that no matter what happens tomorrow.
The only way this article could be more negative is if Murtaugh posted his top blue jerseys and 1988 mesh wasnt #1.
At least we now know who will be taking over William H. Macy’s role in “The Cooler 2”
Eric has done in great and frightening detail the left brain part. You beautifully expressed the other brain part, which is where the players need to be if they are going to parley their 10% chance of winning… into winning.
Go Irish!
I gave you 3 whole ways we could win!
I think this was Eric’s best ever analysis. Well written, lots of interesting facts (horrors) re Saban, clear headed look at the matchups, and possible ways to win. I thoroughly appreciated and enjoyed it.
Notre Dame climbing out of the hole Davieweisingham dug to be the 4-6th (with Okie and GA I’d say) best team in CFB is pretty remarkable.
Yeah, we will likely lose by a ton unless Saban eases up, but even then, his bench is full of 4 and 5 stars who will be trying to move up. Might not be so easy to take the foot off the gas.
The game I’m most interested in is OSU Clemson. I’m hoping Clemson crushes them. Dabo gave them bulletin-board material, but he’s not stupid. I’m guessing he’s confident of a win. I do not think OSU should be in the playoff. They still have 4-5 games to play to qualify IMO.
“Nobody Believes in Notre Dame”
And I wouldn’t have it any other way tbh
I would, actually. I remember when everybody was afraid of ND.
Yeah, by definition that makes me old. Noise will remember those days well too, I’m sure. Call us well preserved.
Idk I just really love the underdog role and I think we play our best football embracing it
it’s one thing to be a close underdog, it’s another to be on a completely different level.
“What though the odds….”
Yeah, I keep thinking that, but it’s bitten me in the butt soooooooooo many times, sadly. I think I’m a hope junkie.
Well, here we are, New Year’s Day — and a momentous game on the docket. Yeah, Kiwi, I remember when other top teams were afraid of us, but even under Ara USC never was (unfortunately). But before Ara, we went though the Brennan-Kuharich years. This interlude has been more painful in one way, in that it has been longer. But BK’s remarkable turnaround to get us into the second tier of very good teams has been a positive. Making the leap into the truly top tier will require better recruiting, as Eric has been saying with frustrated passion. But I do really truly like this year’s bunch. I was super touched and impressed by Tim Prister’s article on JOK: The Art of Words and Actions. Honestly, the way he expresses himself not only reveals a very high character person, but IMO a well-educated one. Which seems to reflect what most of our players sound like these days. So we are doing something right.
I do agree that this team plays better when they are the underdogs, and we can only hope that this will put them into a place where they can have a shot at one of Eric’s three paths to a win. Either way — I do think they will play their guts out.
Go Irish!
And before I forget, Happy New Year to each of you — a real pleasure to read all your articles and posts. I hope 2021 will be super for all.
As we all are! During the ACCCG I just wanted to stay out of the playoff because I wanted to avoid the death star. The very next morning though I woke up and thought “alright let’s go win a championship” its crazy how much that hope is ingrained into me. Even with everything saying we can’t, my heart still says we can! I don’t understand it and quite frankly I don’t want to understand because I want to hold onto that feeling of hope in every game.
Amen!!!