What if I told you that with one of the best running backs of this recent Notre Dame era, with one of the most fun running backs in school history, with a tailback with such a high approval rating that he’d sit out the Fiesta Bowl to protect his draft stock, that we’d see maybe the worst ground attack of the Brian Kelly era in 2021?
Okay, maybe it wasn’t the worst–either 2010 and 2013 are the title holders in my opinion take your pick–but it’s at least in the conversation as among the worst rushing seasons.
2021 marked the 4th occasion of the Kelly era where the team didn’t crack 2,000 rushing yards, joining 2010, 2013, and 2016. From that group, 2021’s rushing average of 4.14 yards per carry was 2nd worse behind only 2010.
I know what you’re thinking, don’t blame dear Kyren of all people!
And you’d be right for the most part. During this article for last year’s success rate I mentioned how Kyren’s stock among nearly everyone is so high and yet his rushing stats don’t immediately back up that praise. Well, that dichotomy was even worse for 2021.
Williams was one of 52 running backs to eclipse 1,000 rushing yards and was 51st out of that group with 1,005 yards on the ground. Also from this group, Kyren was tied for 10th worst in rushing average. For the purposes of this article I’ll also note that Kyren’s success rate took a pretty steep dive from 2020, as well. Although, he was a more productive 28th nationally (17th among Power 5 players) in yards from scrimmage in 2021.
2021 Running Back Stats
| PLAYER | CARRIES | YARDS | AVERAGE | SUCCESS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyren Williams | 204 | 1,005 | 4.93 | 45.5% |
| Chris Tyree | 56 | 222 | 3.96 | 48.2% |
| Logan Diggs | 52 | 230 | 4.42 | 51.9% |
| Audric Estime | 7 | 60 | 8.57 | 71.4% |
| C’Bo Flemister | 3 | 10 | 3.33 | 0.00% |
Note: I use the “old” advanced stat of measuring running success (40% of available yards on 1st down, 60% 2nd down, 100% on 3rd/4th down) because I’m not going back and re-calculating years worth of data. So, for most current success metrics these numbers are actually a bit kinder than you’ll see elsewhere. I generally think 52% (using my numbers) is the starting point for a good back unless you’re really explosive.
There have been 9 Notre Dame players who have carried the ball at least 100 times in a season and averaged better than a 52% success rate* since 2010 and none of those have occurred over the last 5 seasons. We can set aside 2017 because it was outrageously explosive without a very good success rate, so it’s really been 4 straight seasons of mediocre to worse overall results.
*If you’re a fan of Harry Hiestand coming back to coach the offensive line take heart in him being here for 6 out of these 9 performances!
There have been 16 Irish running backs since 2010 who carried the ball at least 100 times and Kyren Williams’ 45.5% success rate from 2021 is the 2nd worst.
With the Jack Coan transfer we anticipated the percentage of running back carries to shoot up over 70% which hadn’t occurred since the 2013 season. Sure enough, the backs ran the ball 71.4% of all rushing attempts for the 3rd highest percentage of the Kelly era.
Additionally, rushing plays of at least 20 yards fell for the 3rd straight season to just 19 across 13 games–that’s the fewest since 2016.
Kyren accounted for 8 of those runs, Buchner 4, Diggs 2, and no other ball-carrier had more than 1 rush of 20 yards or more. Some of those Kyren runs were amazing and highlights of the season but outside those he rushed for 716 yards on 196 carries, or 3.65 yards per rush. There was a lot of nothing on the ground this past season.
There’s no doubt that offensive line struggles, offensive line injuries, and an immobile quarterback absolutely crushed the running game for portions of the season.
Jack Coan’s net yardage came out to -100 yards (pretty much 50% worse than any quarterback who finished with negative rushing yards in the Kelly era) and with sacks removed he had a 42.3% success rate on 26 carries for 91 yards at 3.5 yards per rush. The combination of sacks allowed and not being much of a running threat as a quarterback was really rough this year.
Good news!
The return of Hiestand, plus the return of 4 starters (actually 5 if you want to count Blake Fisher) along the offensive line, plus an extremely mobile quarterback in Buchner is going to bring us some massive improvement in run success rate. Sacks quite literally cannot get any worse than what we saw early in 2021 (Coan was dropped 19 times for -105 yards in the first 3.5 games!!) and the net yardage should spike considerably as Buchner wiggles out of the pocket more often than Coan.
Buchner was only sacked once this season and ran for 346 yards at 7.6 yards per carry and a 57.7% success rate.
The situation in the running back room will be interesting to see how it develops.
Chris Tyree will have a very important off-season coming up. With his turf toe injury he carried the ball 17 fewer times in 2021 than as a true freshman in 2020 while his rushing average dropped by nearly 3 yards per carry, although his success rate ticked up by 0.3%!
I thought his toughness was much improved as a sophomore although questions still linger about his vision and ability to handle the workload of a number one back. Either way, Notre Dame has to find a way to get their speedy back some explosive runs because just 1 run of 20+ yards from Tyree in a season is not acceptable. I’m not sure if we found out when that toe injury happened but Tyree was just 2 of 11 in success rate from the Wisconsin through the Navy games, or basically half the season.
Some people are extremely high on Logan Diggs. He had the “advantage” of missing out on the first 5 games through Cincinnati when the offense and offensive line were struggling their most. He looked really strong in back-to-back games against North Carolina and Navy (78.9% success rate across 19 carries) but was only at 36.3% success rate in all other carries with a propensity to be too patient behind the line and get dropped for little gain, or worse. For me, I don’t think we’ve seen enough to know much other than Diggs will probably be solid.
The tiny glimpse of Audric Estime offered some hope for the future, too. There’s also a very real possibility that incoming freshman Jadarian Price shoots up the depth chart as a battle for starting reps begins this off-season. However, we have to remember that with Buchner at quarterback the amount of carries going to running backs is going to decline so we could be back to an offense where the 3rd back really isn’t playing much of a role outside of garbage time.
I thought the II guys in their podcast yesterday made a good point about running back coaches. Recruiting at RB might be the most important part of the RB coach’s job. Landing elite RBs is much more likely to work out than coaching up lesser ranked RBs. Let’s hope the new RB coach can land some of the elite guys we’ve missed out on with the last couple RB coaches.
Yup, RB is definitely the one position where instincts are so important and guys can get on the field early without a ton of coaching. Certainly, Lance Taylor wasn’t out there teaching Kyren Williams how to juke defenders!
My somewhat hot take is that Tyree and Price will rise a lot next season, and relative to current fan interest/expectation that Diggs and Estime will not.
As mentioned, Diggs played bad defenses and didn’t have a good game against a solid Oklahoma State. To me he’s too patient seemingly completely stopping at times, needs to just go and get the 5-6-7 yards instead of trying for the home run every touch.
Tyree isn’t strong enough for a Kyren 200+ carry workload, but turf toe is an awful injury and I believe Tyree is a bit under-rated (generally speaking) for his talent and what he can do in space. Whether he can break that first tackle and get to the next level like Kyren did will be a challenge, and something Tyree won’t be as good at as Williams, who was exceptional there. But I think Tyree can and will have a really good season next year as at least RB1A.
The Estime/Price thoughts are a hunch, Estime could be good but I feel like some talk as if he’s Bettis 2.0, and I don’t think he is. It’s a projection but I think Price could have a lot of the best features of all the RBs in one package, though who knows if he will pass block well and hit the ground running with a chance to get carries. Might need an injury (much like how Diggs wouldn’t have had as much if Tyree didn’t get hurt) to shine early.
Diggs showing in the bowl game certainly tempered things. I don’t think we’ve seen enough of Estime to form any kind of opinion. Comparing him to Bettis is kind of silly. I thought he was better than Diggs coming out of HS.
Tyree, IMO, has to get stronger or he can’t be relied upon too much. I’m hoping one or two of the sophomores or Price passes him on the depth chart.
Price had an excellent senior season and was an improved RB from his junior year. He could be the best of the bunch.
I don’t put much stock into the bowl game at all, but especially for the running backs. ND clearly abandoned the run starting December 1st.
For as much gnashing of teeth about the run game this past year, I I think it’s going to explosive next year especially with Buchner at QB. I think true RPO’s will finally be ND’s identity especially with Styles in the slot and Mayer at TE. Rees should be able to create so much pressure on the LB’s with Tyree, Styles, Mayer, Buchner that I’m predicting a very explosive offense.
We might not be drive sustainers, but that’s ok. The ability to score on any given play puts so much pressure on other teams. Heck just look at the first 4 weeks against ND’s defense this year. We were losing our minds at the big play keeping teams in games.
All of the current backs seems to have their own pros/cons. I wouldn’t be shocked if the job goes to whomever does the best in pass blocking / picking up blitzes. This is where I think most freshmen have a disadvantage
One thing that I think would be interesting to look at (but probably nearly impossible to track down), is whether or not our coaching staff was putting our RBs in the best position to be successful. It felt like Tommy was running the ball on 2nd and long more than any coach in recent memory, at least in the first half of the season. That’s not a winning strategy, and it’s certainly going to pull your success rate down.
That being said, the O Line was brutal in the first half of the season, and Coan’s refusal to ever keep the ball on a zone read, made the rushing offense look brutal. Buchner’s legs should open things up, and I could see him or Tyree breaking a 40+ yard run in every single game next year.
One advantage the RBs will have with Buchner is that he will open up the running game if Buchner with his legs. I know Book was athletic and did a lot with his legs when the play broke down but he was never really used as a running threat on called plays. I don’t remember too much option runs with him but my guess is we’d run more option with Buchner running more on designed run plays then Book did.
Really? I thought they called Book run plays fairly frequently. Or as much as you needed to anyways for a 4.6 QB, not like they had Lamar Jackson or anything. (Like that shotgun QB power that won the game vs Virginia Tech, I know they called that play often).
I do agree though that Buchner as RPO/read plays does bring a different angle than Book. Probably more Wimbush-like in that realm, except we already have some evidence that Buchner is a way better passer than Wimbush ever was.
I was thinking more about how few read-option type plays there were with him. I don’t think anyone runs straight QB runs very much (even us). But legs were just a huge bonus in the passing game for the most part.
Straight QB run requires a big QB who can take the hits. Not that they did it often, but you can run QB power with a Justin Fields, and it’s basically what Cam Newton was made for. I don’t watch the NFL so I don’t know what the Ravens do with Lamar, but in college even he didn’t have so many run calls so much as it was giving him the green light to run if he saw it open. He wasn’t running QB power, his called runs were draws and other runs in space.
Right, that’s my point (I thought Hooks was suggested there were many of those types of runs with Book). So that only leaves read-option type runs and I don’t remember Book doing many of these type of runs.
Yeah I’m sorry I’m agreeing with you, not arguing. Book didn’t run the R/O or RPO much. I seem to remember with him (and QBs before him actually) every play that looked like an R/O usually seemed like a predetermined call, because there wasn’t much “reading” actually going on. And his called runs (as opposed to scrambles) were usually draw or some situational runs. He could run, it was one of his better attributes, but that’s different than featuring QB run like we might with Buchner.
Ok, got it (makes sense now).
Yea, I thought Book just wasn’t very good at the read part and maybe we were a little more worried about injury to the top QB and we just didn’t read either kind of option plays.
But if Buchner does run them (I was thinking at least the R/O but this it would be true RPO too) that it would open up the running game more than with Book even though Book was also athletic.
I think you’re right, and we saw it when Buchner was in the game this past year. With Buchner, you have to respect a RUN OPTION CALL, which is different than having to respect Book’s legs on a scramble or a draw. It’s a matter of defensive assignment. We didn’t really press that with Book (maybe because he couldn’t read it well, dunno) but we certainly ran RPOs with Buchner–he threw TDs off them at least twice. And he gained yards with his legs, forced the D to adjust (since they’d been treating Coan as a non-entity), and that’s what opened up the lanes for the other backs.
I guess it depends on the definition of “many” but I mean that VaTech game winning play was a designed QB run. And that wasn’t the first and only time they ran that specific play. He did it some, but to your point it wasn’t very RPO/read-centric as Buchner will be. But I do think Book was pretty much a factor with his legs “on purpose” more than just taking off on pass plays when his look wasn’t open, which obviously he also did a ton.
Yes, I think we’re all splitting hairs here. Book was definitely more than just “okay I guess we get a good scramble out of him” but they also didn’t have him read the DE and option off it it much, nor did they have him running up the gut regularly. The VT call worked because they didn’t do it often, IIRC. They gameplanned to use his mobility, but that’s different then having an entire section of the playbook for QB specific runs.
In summation, QB runs are a playcall of many contrasts…
I don’t think that’s a correct assessment Lamar Jackson’s college playbook. His sophomore year he had 30 more rushes than passes. They called a massive number of designed runs for him. Sure, he scrambled a bunch (their pass blocking was worse than ND’s early 2021 pass blocking), but a significant amount of his success was on designed QB runs.
It was a really interesting offense to watch. He actually didn’t throw a ton of RPO passes. Instead, many of the throws were just quick, first read slants. When they ran the ball, there was a lot of zone read, but the read was almost the opposite from what you see today. In most offenses, either the RB takes the ball and runs up the middle or the QB keeps it and runs to the outside. Louisville instead decided they wanted to beat the hell out of Lamar, and they inverted things. If Jackson handed off, the RB would sprint to the edge. If Jackson kept it, he would often take off up the middle.
While I think Buchner would be incredible in this kind of offense, I wouldn’t be excited about risking him getting injured running at 300 pound linemen all season long.
That’s fair. I appreciate you looking at the numbers since I wasn’t going to.
I mean, the flip side of this is to think how bad it would be overall without Kyren. Because while the numbers tell part of the story, how many times did we see Tyree especially, but even Diggs get tackled and think “Kyren would have broken that.” That’s not meant to be a knock on Diggs or Tyree–Tyree had the injury, and Diggs is a freshman learning. But Kyren had almost a supernatural ability to find creases and break tackles, and seemingly never was brought down by an ankle tackle. Tyree seems like he goes down if you lay a finger on his cleat (again, unfair to criticize too harshly with the injury, etc.) and is just not the same runner as Kyren. Diggs has the beginnings of Kyren’s patience, but sometimes would be too patient and get caught up.
I’ve said since the Stanford game that for Kyren to get 1000 yards is a testament to how good he really is, considering how bad the line was the first half of the season. I also think a lot of the gameplan for Okie St. changes if Kyren plays, because you can count on him to get 7 when another back gets 2, or to get 5 when another back gets -3.
An NFL mock draft came out yesterday the projected Hamilton 4th overall to the Jets. The difference in first contract value between 4th and 10th according to spotrac is about $14.5 million. I knew the drops were big at the top of the draft, but best of luck to Kyle at snagging that 4th spot.
Taking a safety (or possibly linebacker per some rumors) at #4 seems like a terrible idea, which is to say it is unfortunately very Jetsian.
Micah Hyde is out there trying to make safeties some money with his other worldly interception last weekend. Like how top DE comp exploded in 2008 after the Strahan/Tuck Super Bowl or all the money Lawrence Taylor has made for left tackles since 1985.
Playing for the Jets isn’t ideal, but…
The Athletic had a mock with him 7 to NYG this week. A lot of money on the line, that is kinda crazy how steep the drop-off is for even a few spots. I was thinking it would be cool for him personally to go back to Atlanta at #8, but going a little higher would be better for the bank account.
KJ Wallace transferring.
According to Matt Freeman he’s graduating, so very good for him. Especially with Griffith and Brown coming back I can understand why he couldn’t see his way onto the two-deep and decided to transfer.
Given Salerno’s scholarship (although it may just be one semester but that would be atypical) and that they are after the now former Utah commit, perhaps one other WR Class of 2022 and the RB out of Texas, I would assume there will be a couple of others, perhaps after spring.
As OFD pointed out, two of the EE freshman got Dirksen’s and C’Bo’s numbers so probably safe to drop them from the scholarship list.
A little concerned we took a grad kicker on scholarship. The kid that sat this year, they had a year to evaluate. They must have concerns. Taking a punter as a walk-on is a good hedge with an incoming freshman punter as your only option.
I have lost track of where we are.