Ever since last year’s schedule got jumbled up and rearranged I purposely stayed away from thinking too much about the 2021 Notre Dame opponents. Well, except for that time in early January when I looked at the likely quarterbacks the Irish would face (Part 1 & Part 2) as a bit of a warning of some difficulties ahead as Notre Dame replaces the veteran Ian Book. By the way, recent Heisman bets have the Irish facing quarterbacks with the 5th, 9th, and 15th best Heisman odds. In some ways it’s silly, but still a sign that some decent talent awaits this fall.
Before I get to some comments on the individual teams I have 3 comments to make on the schedule:
It Seems Fun
We’ll get to the lack of big ACC games in a second but I’d point out that the schedule seems a little more cheery without the likes of Boston College, Syracuse, Wake Forest, or Duke. The Irish have faced those programs quite a bit in recent years and in terms of entertainment and/or road trips you’re basically getting zero from those games.
Also, it’s kind of refreshing that the schedule isn’t so ACC dependent. Say what you want about the relationship with the conference I think we can all agree a hallmark of good Notre Dame schedules are variety.
There is a big national spotlight on the road to open the year, a Soldier Field appearance against a dormant Midwest rival, perhaps the best Group of 5 team in the country is featured, and USC returns after a year off. Seems pretty cool to me.
Sneaky Tough
The only thing I’ve really continued reading this off-season is that the schedule is fairly easy without a Clemson, Georgia, or top 5 opponent awaiting somewhere on the calendar. I’m not sure I agree about fairly easy.
Schedules have a funny way of turning into something we didn’t expect–and while it’ll take a lot of improvement for a few programs to really make this a major challenge–there are plenty of signs that there will be enough improvement in Tallahassee, Madison, Los Angeles, and elsewhere to make this a sneaky tough schedule.
Case in point, lines have been released for Notre Dame’s toughest 9 games and the Irish are an underdog in 1 contest, a pick ’em in another, and more than a 10-point favorite in zero games:
FSU +6
Purdue +10
Wisconsin -4
Cincinnati +2
Virginia Tech +2
USC +1
UNC PK
Virginia +6
Stanford +6
Now, I’d bet good coin that a couple of these lines (hi, Stanford) will go up rather significantly as we get closer to the season and then games actually get played. But, the point still stands this could be a stressful fall full of closer games.
It’s Not 2013
I couldn’t help but look at the book-end games for 2021. About 7 or 8 years ago all we’d be talking about is how crazy this schedule is with a pair of Top 5/10-ish road games to open and close the season. Yet, in the years since, both Florida State and Stanford have experienced quite the fall from grace.
It’s a major stretch to think there’s a team on the 2021 worthy of making the College Football Playoffs and for some this means they’re out on calling this a tough schedule. I disagree on that point, there are plenty of tough schedules out there that don’t feature Alabama, Clemson, Ohio State, or Oklahoma. This may be one of those schedules.
Summer Power Ranking of the 2021 Irish Schedule
*From worst to first.
Navy Midshipmen – Home
Game #9
2020 Record: 3-7
2020 FEI Rating: 106
2021 PFF ELO Ranking: 107
2021 SP+ Returning Production: 80
2021 DraftKings Over/Under Wins: 3
As we know well, Navy is only dangerous when they have an efficient and effective offense. They did not have that last year scoring 21 points per game fewer than in 2019. They’ll need to find a new undisputed answer at quarterback to move up this list. Until then, this should be an easy win at home where the Irish have won the last 5 meetings by an average of 20.4 points.
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets – Home
Game #11
2020 Record: 3-7
2020 FEI Rating: 101
2021 PFF ELO Ranking: 88
2021 SP+ Returning Production: 13
2021 DraftKings Over/Under Wins: 4.5
Senior Day against a weaker ACC opponent, this shouldn’t be too difficult. Georgia Tech picked up some buzz (get it) last year and is recruiting really well, though. Quarterback Jeff Sims could potentially take their offense up a couple more notches, too. However, the program still feels like it’s another year away from being truly competitive at the Power 5 level.
Purdue Boilermakers – Home
Game #3
2020 Record: 2-4
2020 FEI Rating: 76
2021 PFF ELO Ranking: 80
2021 SP+ Returning Production: 38
2021 DraftKings Over/Under Wins: 5
The Boilers shouldn’t be too tricky in 2021. There’s a chance this is a bit of a look-ahead game with Wisconsin slated for the following week and Purdue bringing some rivalry intensity to the first meeting since 2014. However, Jeff Brohm hasn’t been able to get this program off the ground (5 games under .500 against Power 5 opponents since 2017) and there isn’t much on their roster to think their offense is about to take a dangerous jump for the quarterback-guru Brohm.
Toledo Rockets – Home
Game #2
2020 Record: 4-2
2020 FEI Rating: 30
2021 PFF ELO Ranking: 81
2021 SP+ Returning Production: 96
2021 DraftKings Over/Under Wins: 8
This is the game you’ll be reading about this off-season that could be tricky but probably ends up being comfortable in the end. Toledo are one of the stronger teams in the MAC, showed a lot of promise during a truncated 2020, and despite the SP+ returning figure (which I don’t understand for this team) they bring back a ton of talent. Also, remember this game comes on a short week following the Sunday night opener in Tallahassee.
Virginia Cavaliers – Road
Game #10
2020 Record: 4-5
2020 FEI Rating: 67
2021 PFF ELO Ranking: 48
2021 SP+ Returning Production: 77
2021 DraftKings Over/Under Wins: 6
Some might push this game a couple spots higher in difficulty. For me, it comes in a friendly spot in the schedule in between our 2 easiest games towards the end of the season when we should know exactly what Virginia is bringing to the table. What they bring, is probably pretty mediocre overall although Bronco Mendenhall typically punches above his weight on a consistent basis.
Stanford Cardinal – Road
Game #12
2020 Record: 4-2
2020 FEI Rating: 74
2021 PFF ELO Ranking: 44
2021 SP+ Returning Production: 111
2021 DraftKings Over/Under Wins: 4
It seems like the dream is over for David Shaw (check out that wins over/under sheesh!) as they continue to experience a talent drain heading into 2021 without few known quantities. Their schedule is also pretty taxing featuring all Power 5 opponents (opener in Texas against K-State and a trip further east to play Clark Lea’s Commodores included) and little room for rest. If you want to move this game back in the difficulty department I wouldn’t criticize that, this game is shaping up to be more like the last meeting in Palo Alto (21-point win) than something much more challenging for the Irish.
Florida State Seminoles – Road
Game #1
2020 Record: 2-6
2020 FEI Rating: 103
2021 PFF ELO Ranking: 65
2021 SP+ Returning Production: 53
2021 DraftKings Over/Under Wins: 5.5
Here’s where I’d expect the losses on the schedule could theoretically begin. This game is troublesome as an opener on the road, on a Sunday night, with a full house of fans back after the pandemic, and Florida State potentially improving as Notre Dame is unable to find enough answers to personnel losses from 2020. I’ll likely be doing this game preview and I’m telling you right now do not expect me to pick a healthy Irish victory unless we hear Florida State’s fall camp is a disaster with injuries or otherwise.
Virginia Tech Hokies – Road
Game #6
2020 Record: 5-6
2020 FEI Rating: 51
2021 PFF ELO Ranking: 28
2021 SP+ Returning Production: 72
2021 DraftKings Over/Under Wins: 7
This game is here due largely to its placement in the schedule. It’ll be a road game (likely at night) coming off 2 challenging games before a bye week and some rest looking towards USC. The Hokies have to rebuild their running game and don’t have anything scary at quarterback. However, 2 out of the last 3 meetings have been really tight and we could conceivably see that happen again.
USC Trojans- Home
Game #7
2020 Record: 5-1
2020 FEI Rating: 32
2021 PFF ELO Ranking: 16
2021 SP+ Returning Production: 67
2021 DraftKings Over/Under Wins: 9
How much do you believe in Kedon Slovis? If he’s truly a superstar this game begins to get very scary very fast. If he’s less than that the supporting cast isn’t thought to be good enough for Trojan glory. Large swaths of the offense need to be rebuilt and the defense appears solid but nothing more. If that visit to Blacksburg ends up being easier than some think, the Irish could be heading into a bye week of preparation against USC with a lot of confidence.
North Carolina Tar Heels – Home
Game #8
2020 Record: 7-4
2020 FEI Rating: 24
2021 PFF ELO Ranking: 11
2021 SP+ Returning Production: 32
2021 DraftKings Over/Under Wins: 10
The massacre against North Carolina’s offense last year in Chapel Hill was so complete that I don’t blame anyone for writing this off as a win as the Tar Heels lost 4 massively important skill players at running back and receiver. The bad news for Notre Dame is that quarterback Sam Howell comes back and pretty much so does the rest of the team outside of those 4 playmakers. This one comes right after USC, the Heels have been recruiting really well, and I’d be surprised if this is a comfortable game.
Cincinnati Bearcats – Home
Game #5
2020 Record: 8-1
2020 FEI Rating: 8
2021 PFF ELO Ranking: 12
2021 SP+ Returning Production: 41
2021 DraftKings Over/Under Wins: 10
The Bearcats lost their dynamo Sniper Jarrel White (undrafted, signed in the CFL) plus their starting safeties, a really good offensive tackle, and their starting running back. However, the core of their excellent 2020 team returns, including quarterback Desmond Ridder who was the American Conference Player of the Year. Obviously, the loss of defensive coordinator Marcus Freeman could be massive. Still, Cincinnati could have the best defensive line and corners Notre Dame will face all season. That this comes right after my toughest game could mean this ends up being the toughest game of the year.
Wisconsin Badgers – Neutral
Game #4
Neutral
2020 Record: 4-3
2020 FEI Rating: 27
2021 PFF ELO Ranking: 14
2021 SP+ Returning Production: 14
2021 DraftKings Over/Under Wins: 9.5
Wisconsin feels like a steadier version of USC to me. Not quite the flashiness at quarterback or offense but a much tougher defense–the type of team with a variance that could see them disappoint or move to the top echelon of the Big Ten. I’m betting on a few things for this to be in the top spot of our rankings. One, 2020 was very weird for the Big Ten and Wisconsin dealt with lots of injuries. Two, they bring back a lot of talent. Three, quarterback Graham Mertz has massive potential. The Badgers will also have a bye prior to facing Notre Dame and I think it’ll get tight at a neutral site Soldier Field, technically a Wisconsin home game.
Very interesting. It is pretty wild that there’s no elite team plus 2-3 really bad teams, just a solid but unspectacular schedule in a lot of ways.
It’s concerning that between Slovis, Howell, Ridder, Mertz maybe even Jordan Travis/McKenzie Milton that Notre Dame is going to have a lesser QB in seemingly almost half the games. That stretch from late Sept – October is going to be a tough one.
Playing Stanford probably isn’t so bad, but the Stanford Stanford? That spells double trouble.
I agree with these rankings aside from Virginia, who I’d move ahead of Stanford and FSU. Not that I think the Cavs are all that dangerous, but I’m pretty down on the other two. FSU doesn’t have an offensive line and Stanford just has not impressed for a couple years now. And while I would also have Wisconsin and Cincinnati in the top 2 spots, I think I’m more worried about UNC just because they always have that chance to explode offensively. Here’s hoping we’re treated to a repeat of last year’s game.
It’s not the most difficult schedule we’ve ever faced due to the lack of a true elite opponent, but also, if there was a 12 team playoff this year, there are at least 4 teams with the upside to make it.
The most concerning thing is that the 5 toughest games are all in a row (with 1 bye week), and the 6th toughest game is to open the season, on the road, with a QB starting his first game for ND and getting his first meaningful snaps in 2 years (whether it’s Coan, Buchner, or Pyne).
That 5 game stretch in the middle has the potential to end up being the toughest 5 game stretch in the country. Every single one of those teams could end up in the Top 25, and I think Wisconsin, Cincy, and USC all have Top 10 upside (especially if they were to knock off ND). I can certainly see why the projections see us taking a fairly significant step back this year (even though I would still bet on us winning at least 10 games).
My sense is that we’re a problematic matchup for a lot of these teams. This version of ND is tailor-made to suffocate teams like FSU, Stanford, and Southern Cal.
For all their success in the AAC, Cincy’s track record against top-10 P5 teams is not good at all; the talent disparity becomes very apparent in those games.
Wisconsin, I dunno. I tend to think they’re something of paper tigers given how rarely they’re actually challenged, but we’ll see.
I’m not too concerned about FSU, so long as having a new QB doesn’t make something weird happen. If Coan is starting, I feel very good about this game. No concern about Stanford.
USC I’m always a bit concerned about. They just always have some talent at key spots on the field. If Freeman is the real deal, we should definitely be able to blow up their offensive line and handle business there.
Cincy is where I don’t quite agree. I’m definitely concerned there. Since Fickell took over (ignoring his year 1 rebuilding project), they’ve only played 2 P5 Top 10 teams. One destroyed them, that 2019 OSU team that had an all-time great offense (scored under 28 only once all season). The other was #9 Georgia, who only beat them by a field goal (requiring a 14 point 4th quarter comeback). I’m not sure there’s really a track record there to make any definitive statements about their P5 track record (I’m also not 100% convinced yet we’re a top-10 team anyway).
Wisconsin I have no idea how to evaluate. I also feel like most years they’re paper tigers, and I think Jack Coan is a better QB than Graham Mertz.
Man, I just do not get the UNC stuff. They went 8-4 in 2020, therefore, their over-under for wins in 2021 is 10? Huh?
Maybe I’m being too dismissive, but Darkhorse UNC has been an offseason meme since like 2008, and it’s pretty much never come to pass. I’ll believe it when I see it.
Also I have to check the schedule like every three days to make sure there’s no Pitt on there.
That over/under may be due to their schedule. They face ND, Miami, and a 3rd toughest opponent of maybe at Va Tech to open the season? It’s very friendly.
Everyone in the media seems to have such a hard-on for UNC to be good in football, and I really don’t understand it at all. They’re an empty suit of a program, 93-year-old head coach notwithstanding.
I am not sure Florida state will be any good at all and maybe just 2016 Texas has scarred me but I feel like that opener in Tallahassee is a big swing game. Like they said above new qb taking first meaningful snaps in 2 years (although FSU is looking at the same), new o line, no proven wide receivers and new DC.
Overall the schedule isn’t top notch but so many lose-able games, but I guess conversely they are all winnable games as well. Feels like this year is a big swing year. Win 11+ combined with recruiting momentum and really seems like ND could take the next step.
To me, the FSU game is only a swing game if Notre Dame somehow loses. A loss there means this isn’t a double-digit win caliber/capable team. Unless that night is just a perfect storm of a fluke (hype crowd, rain storm, game gets away, crazy bad luck etc) don’t see it happening.
I do agree it’s unusual, pretty much every game from 2018-20 were pretty easy to predict a ND win or loss, and almost never strayed aside from maybe 2019 Michigan loss and 2020 Clemson win (which had the major unexpected monkey wrench of no Lawrence+ defense injuries).
This year, IMO like 10-2 is the most predictable result, but there’s probably four toss up games that could make 8-4 or 12-0 about as likely..Such variance hasn’t seemed the case in the recent past, but maybe that’s just bad memory on my part.
I’m predicting 10-2 and a year very similar to 2019. Lose a tight game against Wisconsin (hate the 11am kickoff time on that one) who ends up being in the top 5 by the time we play UNC so we get credit for a close loss. Sets up a top 10 showdown with UNC at the end of October and for some reason we don’t show up to that game and get the doors blown off.
Finish the year strong at 10-2 winning the last 4 games by an average of 24 points, sneak into a NY day bowl and finally win one and get that monkey off our back. Sets up another playoff push next year where we play OSU to the last possession and then smoke Clemson at the beginning of November announcing that we’re not the same old Notre Dame.
Don’t ask for any evidence to back up my claims.
I agree with this list with the exception of FSU (who I would put behind UVA) and swap Wisconsin with Cincy. IMO, a 6-6 season would be decent progress for FSU considering their schedule and a 20-26 record since 2016. It is going to be a long season if ND loses to them, like 7-5 bad. I don’t believe in the Noles at all.
The reason I have Cincy first is because they are basically the same team on the field as last year which was top-10 good. We talk about Marcus Freeman being a big loss for them but you usually don’t see a dramatic drop-off from losing a coordinator unless their replacement is BVG-level bad or they’re losing a ton of starters. Add in the nauseating narrative of “biggest G5 vs P5 game ever” and that one will be a headache.