Identifying the sneaky good non-conference college football games with upset potential, high entertainment value, or intriguing story lines.
Western Kentucky at Alabama
Let me explain.
Everyone has their eyes set on USC traveling to AT&T Stadium in Arlington to face Alabama in week one. The Tide haven’t been shy about playing some name programs to start the season (Wisconsin, West Virginia, Virginia Tech, & Michigan in recent years) and they’ve won all of those games by at least 10 points. Most are expecting Alabama to be damn good again–likely the No. 1 team to open the season–but both the Trojans and Tide will be breaking in new quarterbacks and who knows what kind of madness could ensue.
If USC has competent quarterback play the opener could give Alabama fits even if they grind out a win.
It’s the next week that is super, super interesting. Not only does Alabama have a tough opener they travel to Oxford in week three to revenge their lone loss from last year. If there’s ever a game where Alabama finally loses in a pretty big upset this game against Western Kentucky has to be the trap.
Use whatever cliche you want, it’s tough going from USC to an underrated WKU team while looking ahead to a rivalry game that could decide the SEC West. What if Alabama has a quarterback controversy on its hands after the USC game?
Sure it’s likely Alabama has their way with the Hilltoppers and this won’t even be close. Western Kentucky has to replace 5 starters from their defensive front seven so that’s scary for a Conference USA team heading into Bryant-Denny Stadium. They are also losing quarterback Brandon Doughty who threw 97 touchdowns over the past two years. Moving on without the two-time Conference USA Player of the Year is kind of a big deal.
However, Western Kentucky plays Rice to open the season on Thursday (tied for the 6th earliest game of the year) and will have 9 days to prepare for the trip to Tuscaloosa. That’ll help the upset factor. Plus, it’s not like the Hilltoppers are some average Group of 5 program. They are coming off a 12-2 season, conference championship, and bowl win, after all.
Most importantly, outside of Doughty most of their best players return. Anthony Wales and D’Andre Ferby combined for 20 rushing scores and nearly 1,700 rushing yards in 2015. The top two receivers are back, including Taywan Taylor and his 17 touchdowns. All 5 offensive linemen bolster 8 total returning starters on offense.
This could be a statement game for young head coach Jeff Brohm, too. He’s entering his third year and carries with him an impressive 20-7 record so far. Brohm has been flying under the radar and will have the chance to put his name on the map in week two.
In addition, we know if there’s any chance of an upset with Alabama that their opponent better be productive on offense. The Hilltoppers were No. 1 in FEI offense and No. 4 in S&P offense last year. They’ve scored at least 30 points in 24 out of their last 27 games, averaging 44.3 points per game along the way. While LSU ran away with the game in the second half last year the sloppy rainy weather in Baton Rouge arguably hampered WKU more and the game was close at halftime.
Western Kentucky also has quarterback transfers in Mike White (USF) plus Tyler Ferguson who has traveled from Penn State, to Louisville, to JUCO, and has arrived to help replace Brandon Doughty. If either of them excel this game is going to be a lot closer than most think.
Doughty was by far the best player on that team last year. There’s no way this is closer than a 2 TD game. A conference USA team can’t lose an NFL draft pick and 5 players from their front 7 and compete with Alabama. They lost by 28 last year to LSU with Doughty. They lost to Indiana. They only scored 14 against Vandy. That was their only win over a Power 5 team (they won 14-12), and Vandy was ranked #83 in F+. The highest ranked F+ team they beat was #44 South Florida. I just can’t see this as anything other than a huge blowout.
That’s very true. Still think there’s a chance it’s a sneaky good game when looking at it outside a vacuum.
Eric’s Stone Cold Lock of the Year:
Western Kentucky to cover +/-3 TD spread against Bama.
Bama sleepwalks through 2.5 quarters and wins by 17. I could see that.
Something like that, I could definitely see that.
Their game with LSU last year was tied right before halftime and a one score game into the late portions of the third quarter. Given the let down sandwich factor for Alabama I can see something similar.
It’d kind of be amusing to do a Sneaky Garbage games – i.e., those that maybe sound good or great on paper but you suspect aren’t going to be so great to watch at all. Not sure what those will be, though. Maybe Oklahoma-Houston, perhaps?
I like that idea. Really most every game that Bama plays against a “quality” nonconference opponent in September would qualify. They never lose and usually win big in these showcase match ups…Oh hey USC!
Alabama plays a lot of sneaky good first halves – or I guess bad from their perspective. Get you all invested that they might drop one and then magically put up 28 unanswered leaving you feeling a little dirty for having just watched it.
Yeah, that happens several times a year. Often against Tennessee. Once in a while they’ll even do it against a Colorado State. I’m pretty sure it’s just trolling when they do, though, I haven’t bought it the last few times it’s happened.
Is anyone else hoping Alabama beats USC by 50?
Yes and no…….can’t stand usc and always hope they get crushed…..but….I would like to see usc beat Bama pretty good so when we beat usc its a big plus for us with the playoff committee.
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