As expected, Notre Dame cruised to its 11th win of the season in the finale at Stanford in a game that was never seriously challenged. Into the late hours of Saturday night on the East Coast, the Irish played out the string to conclude a tough season from a personnel standpoint overcoming many obstacles and putting themselves in position to possible make the College Football Playoffs for the 3rd time.
Stanford finishes the year 3-9 with the 2nd worst record in the Pac-12. That’s tough.
Stats Package
| STAT | IRISH | CARDINAL |
|---|---|---|
| Score | 45 | 14 |
| Plays | 71 | 47 |
| Total Yards | 510 | 227 |
| Yards Per Play | 7.18 | 4.82 |
| Conversions | 3/12 | 3/11 |
| Completions | 27 | 20 |
| Yards/Pass Attempt | 9.47 | 6.88 |
| Rushes | 35 | 22 |
| Rushing Success | 51.5% | 45.0% |
| 10+ Yds Rushes | 8 | 3 |
| 20+ Yds Passes | 4 | 2 |
| Defense Stuff Rate | 31.9% | 21.1% |
Notre Dame got off to a quick start on a rare opportunity to kickoff while forcing a three and out from the Cardinal. Only 5 plays later, the Irish were in the end zone later building a 24-0 lead that would be completely insurmountable for this Stanford team.
Offense
QB: B
RB: C
TE: A
OL: C
WR: B
The Irish offense did some good things from a performance that was probably a touch disappointing on the whole for fans expecting dark things to happen to this poor Stanford defense. This was the 4th worst YPP allowed by Stanford this season but given their recent form in November this didn’t feel quite like Notre Dame pouring it on in a way that was satisfying.
Jack Coan played well connecting on some big passes to produce his second-most passing yards on the season. He was picked off trying to squeeze a pass into Michael Mayer but I did think it was an excellent grab from Stanford safety Jonathan McGill whom we highlighted in the game preview.
If there was criticism to be had it was when they hit some adversity. When early downs worked out, they did so in a big way for Notre Dame. But, Coan was just 3 of 7 on third down throws with only 1 first down conversion throw (the late 13-yarder to Mitchell Evans) for the entire game. Those stats also included his interception and a sack, as well. And remember, that drive (in which Coan was inserted back into the game) only continued because Stanford was offsides on a 4th down play.
After the game, Brian Kelly mentioned Stanford was in a Double Eagle front (in simple terms it’s a front that plays a lot of 7-man boxes but specifically covers the center and both guards) determined to stop the run game. It pretty much worked! Not a great look for Notre Dame who didn’t get a lot of productivity from Kyren Williams and saw almost 40% of the rushing yards come on long runs from Chris Tyree and Tyler Buchner.
Move in the pocket or make them tackle you, please.
However, this left Stanford vulnerable to the pass and Notre Dame took advantage handing them the most yards given up through the air this season by a wide margin.
Specifically, you had to love the efficiency and explosiveness shown from Mayer and Kevin Austin who combined for 15 catches and 230 yards on just 18 targets. Stanford had no answers for these two.
Rushing Success
Williams – 9 of 19 (47.3%)
Tyree – 4 of 5 (80.0%)
Diggs – 0 of 4 (0.0%)
Lenzy – 1 of 1 (100%)
Coan – 1 of 1 (100%)
Buchner – 2 of 3 (66.6%)
I’m positive the offensive line would’ve liked to play better on Saturday night. Despite some big passing numbers, Coan was harassed a little too often with 2 sacks and a handful of hurries. I think the running backs continue to show too much patience and are hurting themselves trying to prance around in the backfield seeking something for a big play. Yet, the offense allowed 9 tackles for loss (Stanford’s previous game-high was 6 this season) and that’s shared between the offensive line and runners.
Defense
DL: B+
LB: B
DB: B+
Initially, this looked like it was going to be atrociously ugly for Stanford and one of the most inept performances in recent history. At halftime, Stanford had 42 yards. Forty two. Their first full 10 drives netted 69 yards, and that includes the short touchdown drive following Coan’s interception.
Until the 4th quarter, the Cardinal had 69 total yards and their longest play from scrimmage was 12 yards on 3rd & 20–a reception they promptly fumbled but did recover.
If you’re into completion percentage telling much of a story Tanner McKee finished with 80% accuracy!
McKee did eventually connect on passes of 49, 26, and 19 yards (the latter fumbled and lost this time) in the 4th quarter to add some respectability to the proceedings. Outside of those passes, McKee was 17 of 22 for 78 yards for a whopping 3.54 yards per attempt.
In their defense, Stanford had a few absolutely crushing drops that would’ve helped out.
Stuffs vs. Stanford
Kiser – 2.5
Ademilola, Jayson – 2.5
Ademilola, Justin – 2.5
White – 2
Hart – 2
NaNa – 1
Lewis – 1
Watts – 1
Hinish – 0.5
Bertrand – 0.5
Ehrensberger – 0.5
It genuinely felt like Stanford didn’t want to even try to do much on offense. They actually found some decent success running the ball but the lack of explosiveness on the ground plus through the air put so much pressure on them being able to grind out 3rd down conversions. Against this Irish defense, that ain’t happening.
There also weren’t many opportunities for Stanford. With their 3 conversions they only ran 47 plays, a hilariously low figure. I went back and checked and this was the 2nd fewest plays for a Notre Dame opponent during the Brian Kelly era behind Louisville’s 45 last year in what remains a super weird game to look back at now.
Final Thoughts
We’re still trying to think about all positive vibes at safety for next year. However, we do have to point out that on Stanford’s 49-yard touchdown pass D.J. Brown got beat pretty bad on the route and Xavier Watt took a poor angle in pursuit to get run past almost immediately.
Stanford running back Austin Jones wears one of the strangest helmets I’ve ever seen. He has this slanted clear visor with a helmet featuring all these large vent holes over it. He looks like an alien.
Weird helmet, bro.
Michael Mayer broke the tight end single-season school record for most catches in a season this weekend and now sits at 64 receptions on the year. He’ll need 36 yards in the post-season to break the single-season record for most yards by a tight end, too.
The offense really tried to get Lorenzo Styles going in this game but it just didn’t click with 27 yards on 5 targets.
I’m positive that Braden Lenzy’s 12-yard run was going to be taking to the house if he didn’t slip on the awful Stanford grass.
Did you know, Kevin Austin’s 18.64 yards per catch is the most for a leading Irish receiver since Will Fuller in 2015? He’s unlikely to sniff 1,000 yards this season but needs 17 more yards to join Chase Claypool, Miles Boykin, Equanimeous St. Brown, Fuller, TJ Jones, and Michael Floyd as wideouts with at least 800 yard seasons during the Kelly era.
Next year, the Irish face perceived weaker teams in Marshall, California, UNLV, Navy, Syracuse, and Boston College. Where would you fit Stanford in with that group of teams right now?
The Ademilola brothers each picked up a sack, let’s hope they are both returning next year! Also, a weirdly quiet game from Isaiah Foskey (1 assisted tackle) who now has only 1 sack in his last 4 games. Will he come back?
From a defense that has several candidates for this award, NaNa Osafo-Mensah had a nice stuff against Stanford and may be the guy who has contributed the most seemingly out of nowhere this year.
It wasn’t a great start to the season (the FSU and Toledo games seem so long ago now) but Marcus Freeman finishes 2021 holding 7 out of the last 10 opponents under 5 yards per play. Now we’ll see if he is lured by many of the head coaching positions available nation-wide.
Let’s hope Brian Kelly learns his lesson to never take it easy on David Shaw by trying to run out the clock that way in the 1st half, nearly leading to a monstrous 57-yard field goal kicked by Stanford following the Irish punt.
At the half Bramlett picked a “great time” to hit a 30 yd. punt. I had switched over to check the score of Ok/OKL St. after 2nd down. When I switched back and Stan. was lining up for a FG, I figured Coan must have thrown a pick.
Next years schedule looks like 10-2 at worst, if we get decent QB play.
And yet I think we are a long way away from getting decent QB play at this point.
Yes, about 9 months……surely Buchner needs to improve greatly. I think he’s very talented. His running ability is a great plus. I’m hopeful.
It’s just such a crapshoot at QB. I hope he works out but I’d be open to taking a transfer too if it would elevate the team. (I’m thinking of the UCF QB e.g.)
A transfer is going to want to start, which opens the door to Buchner leaving himself to find the field somewhere else. High end QB recruits usually don’t stick around when you’re blocking their chance to play in year 2 with a vet to play in front of them.
I don’t see why ND wouldn’t trust that they can develop Buchner’s passing game and get him ready to go with a full offseason as the #1 guy. He has the tools, just needs refining and experience.
Unless you can get a Joe Burrow level transfer (or at least a first round pick level player, since #1 pick of best NCAA offense ever sets the bar pretty high), I wouldn’t mess with that. Salvation lies within, and I think Buchner will be fine at worst and potentially solid at best.
Buchner simply isn’t good enough to worry that much about him potentially transferring if you can get a solid QB. His current career arc is “worse version of Bo Nix”. I hope he’ll be better than that – and to some degree would expect so, given Auburn’s instability – but from what he’s done on the field there’s no real reason to think so.
That said, if the available QB for next year is just Jack Coan level, sure, roll with Buchner. But some combination of Caleb Williams/Jaxson Dart/Spencer Rattler/maybe Kedon Slovis/maybe JT Daniels should be available. If any of them want to come, you take the commitment and let the Buchner chips fall as they may.
I thought I saw Dillon Gabriel from UCF is also available. Wouldn’t he be a definite upgrade?
Ehh, I just don’t agree with the finality of that stance. It’s Buchner’s first football action in a while and getting adjusted to the college speed. He’s already played more than most 2nd year QBs (CJ Stroud, Bryce Young) did in year 1. I don’t really want to just write Buchner off right now, especially when he has been really good with his legs. He’s the second leading rusher on the team! He’s got some improvement to be made, but IMO it’s a mistake to just turn the page on him right now at this point.
Obviously they need Buchner to make a jump, but an undergrad transfer is very unlikely to happen, Kelly has said that directly this season. That’s pie in the sky dreaming.
JT Daniels in stop #3 doesn’t do a lot for me. Maybe he puts it together, but for one reason or another it hasn’t worked in two places. I’d rather bank on a younger player trying to develop and get to his ceiling (Buchner) than gamble on a player who has failed to establish himself.
Seriously, how can anyone be ready to discard Buchner at this point is insane to me.
Worse version of Bo Nix??
Buchner may match or exceed Nix’ best rushing season at Auburn with like 5% of the snaps and with more than double the rushing average! TB might run for 1,000 yards next season, seems pretty fun to me!
I won’t get bent out of shape about his small sample size passing. I think he’ll be fine with this next year, but we’ll see.
To be clear, I’m not saying discard him. I hope Buchner is our starter in 2023! I’m just saying the absolute earliest one could reasonably expect him to be a good-to-very-good QB is towards the end of next season. And I think that’s pretty optimistic. To me, it seems like starting him next year is effectively punting on the season in terms of trying to compete for a championship – or, at best, hoping that he gets good enough that we can surprise Clemson and go 11-1.
If Notre Dame genuinely has designs on being a top-5 type program, it should not resign itself to that level of QB situation going into a season without at least kicking the tires on the highest-level transfer possibilities.
(On the Nix point: I am genuinely surprised that Nix’s running totals are as low as they are. Buchner really reminds me of him stylistically, but apparently he’s a much better runner. But, also, it’s really the passing in particular that makes me think of them as similar, and that’s not flattering. Note that Nix was a higher-rated recruit than Buchner too, and was playing with less skill talent around him.)
I think your heels are firmly dug in on Buchner. You’ve already given him a pretty negative career arc.
I believe his ceiling is really high and he’s exceeded so many expectations this season that it’s super weird to be asking if we should be looking into Kedon F’in Slovis or otherwise we’re punting on 2022.
I’ve been loud wrong about some things on this site and I’d be happy to be loud wrong about this too.
You could be right in the end! But right now, I don’t think there’s much to justify being so down on Buchner.
It’d be like people saying, “Well, we know Logan Diggs’ career arc is someone who won’t keep the starting job so we’d better look to the portal, etc. etc.”
And Buchner’s 2021 has arguably been much more impressive, especially given the nature and difficulty of their positions, than Diggs’ so far.
Maybe if Buchner’s skillset wasn’t quite there, I’d get it. If he wasn’t fast or had an average arm. But he’s fast and has a good arm.
It’s one thing to pull the trigger on a slam dunk All-American-type transfer at QB (maaaybe Caleb Williams is in that category) but I don’t think there are many reasons that aren’t super nitpicky to be down on Buchner today.
Nine months of this negativity…..ugh.
The playbook for him should be much bigger next fall (1st team reps) and continue to grow thereafter. He’ll have plenty of playmakers around him, especially if the WRs return, with a more experienced Oline. He’s as good an athlete as Wimbush and hopefully a better passer.(It’s hard to believe he won’t be) Defenses, IMO, are going to have a harder time defending ND with him than Coan. I trust that Rees will take advantage of his skills. The offense should look much different with Buchner next year. Yes, I’m being hopeful here but, as Eric said his ceiling is very high. If Kelly/Ress can make the adjustments that they did this year with Jack Coan and his limitations, leading the way, I trust that they can with Buchner.
Right?
295 attempts
180 completions
61% accuracy
2,300 passing yards
7.8 yards per attempt
17 TD
10 INT
150 rushing attempts
810 rushing yards
5.4 yards per rush
15 rushing TD
This stat line would basically be Wimbush but with improved accuracy and some more interceptions factored in. This is college football, Buchner doesn’t have to be great passing if he’s a potent runner and this can equal very good things overall for the offense.
Even if we agree the passing game will take a step back the running game is going to improve a lot, and likely by more than enough to compensate IMO.
Because of his running ability, the windows Buchner will have to throw into are going to be much larger than Coan or even Book. He’s not going to have to be Jimmy Clausen, but he will have to improve in terms of passing as well as his pre-snap analysis. Still, I don’t know how anyone could definitively declare — based on a very limited body of evidence — that Buchner *can’t* be a good and productive QB1 for us in 2022.
Not to pile on, but not only is TB a good runner, but his passing really has not been that bad. He’s something like 23/35 for 300 yards with a 142 passer rating. Granted he’s had 3 pics, but he’s a freshman who has not played much in the last two years and has not been getting many first team reps all year as far as we know. The last full season he had, when he was a junior in high school, he threw for over 4,000 yards. Yes, it was against low level competition, but it’s not nothing. He’s got good size, and from all reports, is very smart, coachable, and a great teammate. To write him off at this point doesn’t make any sense.
I was planning on laying off this thread, as basically all the points made so far have been quite fair, but the “his passing hasn’t been that bad this year” point is just not right. He is completing 60%, sure, but *maybe* 10 of his passing attempts were on obvious passing downs, and the rest were on plays where the defense was expecting him to run. And most of his passes were short dump-offs which should have a much higher completion percentage than 60%.
If you want to feel good about Buchner, just keep rewatching that throw to Austin in the VaTech game. That play in itself shows Eric is definitely right at least on this point: he has the tools/potential! He also has thrown ~5 slants etc. with some zip. But feeling good about 5-10 passes out of 35 is a thin reed! The rest were pretty not-good, even completions (rewatch his passes from the last few games; even when completed they weren’t where the ball should go).
The better critique of criticizing his passing, already made, is that it’s a small sample size and he’s just getting his sea legs. But also the argument that he’s thrown fewer than only 500 passes in live action in the last four years at best cuts both ways in the “does it make sense to get a transfer QB?” debate.
Like I said, I hope I’m wrong! Also agreed they could change the offense and it could work! But, if you take Eric’s plausible-but-mildly-optimistic-IMO stat line as what happens, that is a 10-2 season, no?
I think we have to balance a couple things:
1) Which QB transfer is good enough where we’re beginning to feel like favorites in Columbus or against Clemson in 2022?
2) What are the realistic odds of that QB coming to Notre Dame?
I think most of us would bring in Caleb Williams as a transfer and would try to pursue that if it was a legit option. Especially if Patterson/Foskey and maybe Kyren decide to come back and now we’re looking at a window opening.
The odds of that type of momentous QB transfer seem small to me, though.
I don’t really feel like it’s something we absolutely need to chase because Buchner isn’t good enough or because 10-2 would be a ceiling. 10-2 with Buchner playing pretty well with 2 more years afterward sounds pretty good to me.
Acknowledging that I’m backtracking on the Bo Nix comparison when presented with, you know, facts: I actually don’t think I disagree with much of that so I’m not sure how far we’re apart on this.
Another way of putting my position: if Foskey/Ademilolae come back (and *especially* by some miracle Kyren comes back), it would be selling this team short to just plan to roll with Buchner without shooting a shot at a better QB for 2022. If we do lose those guys to the pros, the potential title-run window is 2023 anyways, so I would feel significantly less strongly that they should try to improve at QB for 2022.
I also don’t want to begin to get into a habit of leaning on transfer QBs. From a team chemistry perspective, it’s better to have a quarterback who has been here all along and done the hard work with the rest of the team every step of the way. This season was a little different because of the holes on the depth chart and Coan happened to be a great fit here. But I wouldn’t assume that transferring QBs with his makeup grow on trees.
You can’t just exclude part of his skill-set to make a point.
Discounting Buchner’s completions because the defense was expecting him to run sort of seems like you’re implying defenses won’t have to prepare for him to run in 2022. I’m pretty sure he will still be running when he’s the starter, and he’ll be able to take advantage of that in the passing game. And the idea that he’s not going to improve his passing at all over the next 9 months seems overly pessimistic.
No, I’m simply contesting that his passing was “not that bad.” It was pretty bad, and my point is that some somewhat-favorable looking stats were often against stacked boxes. The point that he’ll still be seeing those boxes next year is totally valid, but also the point is that the stats should have been better against those defenses given the playcalls/short passes he was running is also IMO valid.
I basically just don’t think there can be a serious discussion about Buchner for next year without acknowledging he was a bad passer this year. There are quite fair caveats! Small sample size; he’s barely played QB in live action in four years; he’s 19; beautiful deep ball in the VaTech game; etc. But also he was mostly bad at throwing the football in 2021. That’s all I was contesting for the purposes of that post.
We’ll see, his passing didn’t light the world on fire but by all accounts he didn’t have a lot of the playbook opened either for the first part of the season. There were some good signs, like checking to the pass on the RPO touchdown Buchner threw against UNC. I don’t see any reason why he can’t improve his numbers. He’s got a good arm, just needs more time in the offense to study and make improvements.
At worst, Buchner is already way better than Wimbush (who was a sub-50% passer in 2017!) and more y/a as a true freshman than Wimbush did as a redshirt sophomore OR red. junior…And Wimbush almost beat Georgia!
Fair to say there will need to be improvements, but I don’t see reason to not be optimistic. Unlike Wimbush, Buchner has shown accuracy at times he just needs more work, getting better reading defenses, ball placement, consistency, maybe velocity control on intermediate routes, etc — all aspects that very conceivably could (and should) grow in the next nine months before the 2022 season.
Supposedly Bo Nix is considering the transfer portal. @ We could bring him in and settle this debate! @
Fair enough/sadly you’re probably right on the undergrad transfer point. If that’s not doable right now, fine, but also that’s going to be an unsustainable position for the program to have as a going-forward proposition. Ties your hands behind your back in a way that is going to pretty clearly adversely affect the program too much. It’s like Stanford’s admissions approach, which does not work at all with this early signing period.
This is crazy talk, my dude.
Looking at the schedule, OSU is the only game that heavily leans loss. Clemson has not been good this year so that is not nearly as scary as a game as it had seemed to be.
With USC being down (and Stanford way down) and the ACC being down, our schedule seems to be pretty weak. We might be relying on BYU to be ranked to give us some SOS outside of OSU.
Well, Riley going to USC should strengthen that schedule just a bit then in the coming years.
I think next year is looking like 10-2 ceiling if Buchner is the QB
yea, that’s where I’m at. Which is why I think we are going to be behind other programs who can take in these undergrad transfers where we apparently will not be able to.
umm pete thamel reporting lincoln riley to usc. he was first I saw on billy napier as well. Pretty rough weekend for us irish fans considering nd finished 11-1.
Wow, that’s probably about the best case scenario for USC. Also really bad news for the CJ Williams recruitment too.
and for any chance at that QB too. Gotta believe he’ll recommit to USC.
2023 QB Sooners commit Malachi Nelson (0.999) probably verbals to USC.
That’s true. Whoever Riley wants at QB, he is going to get.
He already decommitted from Oklahoma haha.
lol yea saw that. That didn’t take long. Let’s see how long it takes him to commit to USC. And how long it takes for the other OK commits from California to follow suite.
Actually, I gotta believe he’s already a silent commit to USC and they’ll just sit on it for a few looks for PR purposes as if somehow it’d look bad if he committed immediately.
I think there have been 3 or 4 4/5* OU commits that decommitted last night. USC might be good again.
2 more just decommitted. Hilarious that OU/UT going to SEC and neither has a head coach and are hemorrhaging players.
lol yea they are going to be middle of the pack AT BEST in the sec for a long time.
Curious where OU will get players now. So Cal will be tougher with Riley there. Have to imagine more instate talent going to OSU now. The Texas talent pool will get more diluted with more SEC exposure.
A&M will probably get a boost too with Riley gone.
And unless Oklahoma hits on this next hire, then it’ll be a tough rebuild in 5 years too with the SEC competition.
So if Southern Cal flips OU’s QB does that give us a better chance of Flipping SC’s QB commit ? Looking for a bright side here.
well certainly better than he’s definitely not going back to USC.
yeah cj williams definitely gone. and yeah that’s a home run hire for usc. did not at any point expect them to pull this off. oklahoma 2023 class was loaded with socal guys. all presumably gonna flip to usc
This season is Kelly’s second-best coaching job after 2012, IMO. Maybe the best. Remarkable to go 11-1 with a team whose talent level really isn’t any higher than the 2011 or 2014 teams, at least at the top end (though the depth is better).
How many day 1 or 2 picks were on the field for ND yesterday? Mayer, Foskey, and… Joe Alt probably (though he’s not at that level now, understandably). Anybody else?
True. I think you have to really credit d-line depth and talent. Foskey of course, but with MTA, both Ademilola’s lately have been on fire, Mills is coming on (maybe a high pick in a couple years with his size/strength combo?) then down to Hinish and Nana…Just a ton of difference makers at this level, I feel like we look back in 5 years and think of just how stacked that group was. No elite future stars but really solid college players all over the place.
If you could just transplant this d-line room to UVA or UNC or somewhere like that for the whole season, are they ACC champs or at least contenders? I could see a boost of somewhere along those lines.
talent level not being better than it was 10 years ago is not a glowing endorsement of the coach.
Eh, this is a down/rebuilding year. An 11-1 rebuilding year is really impressive.
Also the “on the field” thing is missing a bit in terms of overall roster talent because that excludes a likely top-5 pick and another potential day-1 or -2 tackle. Plus there are a bunch of young guys who have looked like future solid players already but I wouldn’t feel confident in saying will be top-90 picks (Styles, Mills, Cross, etc.).
Notwithstanding my QB pessimism per above, things are a lot better with the program than 10 years ago!
Nicely put. Concur with all (except the QB pessimism, but besides it being a topic where certainty is hard to come by, you made a reasoned case and kept the conversation on a very even keel 18 Stripes level)/
Talent is not down, just the experience.
I think Kyren should absolutely be gone before the end of round 3. When the scouts actually get around to breaking down his performance this season and how he got his yards, I expect him to get a pretty good bump. It tells a better story than the raw stats. Spiller and Hall are fine but there’s no Etienne or Swift in this draft class.
Yeah, PFF just came out with a top-100 prospect list and Kyren is #89, which would be a low 3rd-rounder. Interestingly, Foskey was #97, which is technically in the 3rd round thanks to compensatory picks.
I think Kyren is really really good, but I will be surprised if he ends up getting picked ahead of Foskey. But, yes, you can throw him in the mix as Day 1/2ish talent.
I agree too. Only 4 RB’s were drafted in the top three rounds last year. Says more about positional value in the NFL more than anything. The 49ers got Mitchell in the 6th round. I could see something like that for Kyren, maybe not the highest pick but if he goes to a team that fits, a good contributor and where he was picked doesn’t really matter.
Interesting Foskey was so low. The Athletic’s guy recently had him at 40, they’ve been high on him since pre-season, though.
Ugh. Lincoln Riley. Sigh. I feel like this was the worst week ND football has ever had when they won a game 45-14.
Not one game went our way. And USC hired a coach better than should have even been possible. The only hire for them that would have sucked more, would have been BK.
Probably not that feasible/realistic, but Urban would have been a more frightening hire and a total worst case scenario.
I don’t think so at all. Urban would have flamed out with all those LA co-eds in 3 years. He’s also 16 years older than Riley.
Meyer is slimy, no doubt, but he builds football factories into championship level teams and quickly. He’s 57, which isn’t ancient for a coach. He would have had USC at/near playoff level in 2-3 years time, given previous track record (won national title in year 2 at Florida, won national title in year 3 at tOSU).
That’s the one difference from Riley who has failed in the playoffs – Urban has taken multiple programs to higher levels than Riley has. Off the field Urban a mess and possibly can’t stay out of his own way to sustain forever, but on the field he has driven a lot of success and that can’t be denied. (At the college level, anyways).
It’s possible that Riley gets them to near the same level, but Urban’s won titles at 2 places, he would have been even more of a shift in the power balance in CFB, IMO.
I’m also curious whether LR can rebuild a program. He has impressed at OU, but he took over a thriving program.
he said that’s what he wanted – the challenge.
Hard to imagine he’ll struggle getting to the playoffs quickly. At the very least he’ll recruit an insane amount of offensive talent easily and can obviously coach that side of the ball well.
I’m aware of both of their resumes. Meyer’s is at least tied for the second best of active coaches with college experience, significantly ahead of Riley, who hasn’t accomplished anything near that level. Meyer would certainly also be a miserable option for ND. But given the fact everyone knows Meyer is a complete scumbag at this point, I would much rather him be hired into what is currently a dysfunctional program that would probably let him run amok. Than someone like Riley who is one of the brightest minds in football and probably has 20 years of coaching ahead of him.
Meyer gives USC a higher short term ceiling, but also the potential for complete and utter collapse. While Riley raises their long term potential for causing us misery to a much higher level. And we also don’t know what Riley’s ceiling is, since he’s not even 40.
I guess truly worst case scenario would be they hired Meyer this year, he wins a NC in 2 years, flames out, and then they hire Riley.
Riley is an empty visor whose best features are basically redundant at SC (QB/WR, recruiting). He doesn’t address the program’s traditional shortcomings in any way. They return to being a 10-win team (and a good scalp for ND) but he’s not the second coming of Pete Carroll.
So what hire would scare you more?
I’ve already explained why I would rather them end up with Meyer. Not like Saban, Swinney, or Day is headed that way. Who else is clearly a better option than Riley?
Does this throw a wrench in BK coaching at USC still?
Apparently LSU is after BK now.
I may be reading too much into LR’s decision, but I can’t help but notice he had 2 opportunities to coach in the SEC and passed.
It makes me wonder whether the ADs of Texas and OU talked with their coaches about joining the SEC or truly appreciate what they signed up for. The schools will make more money obviously, but it seems like there are many downsides, especially the high likelihood of mediocrity.
That’s the thing about super-conferences: Some teams have to lose. Texas and OU aren’t going to be anything special in the SEC, and OU in particular is going to be facing some structural disadvantages given the Bamas and LSUs are going to turn their plundering of Texas prospects up to 11 now.
SEC fans can talk all they want about Riley being ‘scared’ of the SEC, but I think he’s smart to see that OU has an uphill battle to be a consistent power in that league, mostly for reasons he can’t change.
Yea, there is typically only so many top programs in a conference. Look at the big 10, penn st, osu, mich, wisc, etc. can’t all be top programs every year – but over the last 30+ years they’ve had their spurts.
And while everyone wants to go play in the SEC, prospects generally seem to still want to play for winners. That still only leaves the top 3 or so programs in the SEC as being true contenders and at this point Oklahoma and Texas won’t be among them.
Of course things are cyclical and will change at some point, but that could be 5, 10, 15, 20+ years depending on the program.
I grew up a time where I wasn’t aware Alabama was good at football until I hit my mid-20’s. 1992 was right before I was aware of what other teams outside of ND were doing. Then, boom, 2009 happened out of nowhere.
You could make a case OU will go the way of Nebraska.
I think this is right unless they hit a homerun with this next hire.
This seems like a key point. Pac-12 splits the difference between a disintegrating Big 12 and a tough to win in SEC.
Agreed. USC can be a real juggernaut in the pac 12 too legitimately challenging for national titles – not just a paper-tiger beating up on down programs (which is a little closer to what was happening in the big 12 it seems).
If ND hadn’t lost Clark Lea last year, he’d be gone this carousel… hope Freeman isn’t next. Interesting viewing this last 24 hours… spastic.
I was about 15 minutes and a couple of million dollars off on my concerns.
Pete Thamel from Yahoo Sports is reporting BK is headed to LSU https://twitter.com/PeteThamel/status/1465483496718274569?s=20
Still hard to believe. What is Kelly making? He mentioned something like if someone offered him 250 million or something crazy he’d leave. I thought I saw somewhere LSU was willing to pay like 12.5 million. Is that in the crazy range that he’d leave???
I saw $14 million per year for 7 years from LSU.
wouldn’t that make him the highest paid coach in college football?
I would be surprised that Kelly would sign on for 7 years (always seemed like he’d want to be done before then).
I think Riley set the new market at $11 million per year yesterday (plus some huge perks including a $6 million house). I’m not aware of anyone even making that much, the previous highs were Saban at $9.8, Tucker at $9.5, and Orgeron and Fisher at $9.0.
Right, so $14 million is blowing the doors off the market so to speak.
This is nuts! I get the money is more, but I am sure Kelly was already making generational wealth at ND, whats a few more million a year. It can’t just be the money. Its got to also be the chance at a championship, and it my guess is he thinks that is more likely to happen by banging it out in the SEC West against Saban and Fisher, etc. than it is at ND with the program at an all time high.
I wasn’t super attached to the guy. I am grateful for the success he’s had. But man, Savvy Jack better know what needs to happen now….He needs to find a killer recruiter who can maintain a program.
My understanding is Kelly was making about $8 million per year all in at ND, but a lot of it is off Federal reporting at ND as a private university.
Yea I don’t know about the money. I wouldn’t be surprised if he just at least doubled his paycheck – maybe more.
I’m with you. More grateful for his run at ND than anything else and don’t hate him for leaving or anything like that.
I don’t hate him either, I am stunned to be honest though. This is some cut-throat shit from a guy who could still have a team make the playoff. I mean, is Fickell gonna leave his team on the edge of making the playoff maybe too, to go to ND?
Haha right, potential playoff team coaches jumping ships. Yikes.
That happened to Cinci last time with BK – first major bowl game anyway.
Cinci is going to HATE ND if that happens.
LSU probably looks great to Kelly since he clearly is not a killer recruiter, and LSU recruits itself, especially if its stable. He can make bank for five years only having to run around Louisiana and Texas recruiting to 4/5 star kids who already want to go there becuase its close to home and see if he can finally win a National Championship. But, he could have also technically, possibly won a Championship with ND this year, they might get in to the playoff, and he is gonna leave that on the table to go to LSU before that’s even done??
Yea, the leaving with a playoff spot (unlikely but still) on the line is a bit weird, but obviously it’s now or never. I think that’s right about the recruiting part. And coupled with the money, tough to pass up I guess.
And $14 million a year would make him the highest paid football coach period – that includes the NFL I believe. And that is nearly $100 million when considering total value.
I’m seeing Belchick makes $18 million.
A quick search I found a different number but I believe you. That still would probably put Kelly in some pretty rare company being so high paid a college coach (that is with such a big different between him and #2).
I think NFL salaries aren’t officially known so who knows?
If these numbers are accurate, he nearly doubled his salary.
https://sportscriber.com/money/nfl-coaches-salary/
Here has him at $12 million.
Does that factor in a buy out? Because there’s no way he’s finishing that contract at LSU.
He only just turned 60 during the season, so he’d just hit 67 when the contract expires. He’ll only have hit full social security retirement age two months before the end of the contract.
If Kelly really did leave, would Fickell be the top target? And would Freeman stay to DC under Fickell again?
My top 3 are probably Fickell, Aranda, and Freeman (not in order) with a wildcard option of Bob Stoops.
For that matter, who would Kelly take with him? Would Rees and/or Freeman want to go with him or stay with Fickell? Would Fickell want Rees?
¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Freeman didn’t want to go to LSU last year. I would think Rees is more attached to ND than he is to Kelly, but I don’t know for sure I guess.
I think Freeman didn’t want to go because of the coaching situation. But it would obviously be more stable with a new head coach.
He said at the time his wife and six kids all being midwesterners was a deciding factor. I don’t know… he’s only been around one year as a coordinator.
Well it’s not like he’s going to say the coach their might get fired, so I don’t want to go there.
No doubt being a mid-west guy (like Fickell) has kept him closer to him though. Hope he sticks around obviously.
Fickell would be the best option IMO. there really isn’t another good choice. Pay him whatever he wants 🤷🏻♂️
Yea though clearly we have some ceiling with these salaries going to insane heights.
This article headline became even more accurate!
LSU’s beat reporter for the Athletic is confirming BK to LSU.
https://twitter.com/BrodyAMiller/status/1465491685966848007?s=20
Matt Fortuna is calling it a shocking development, but won’t call it confirmed yet.
https://twitter.com/Matt_Fortuna/status/1465488567480819715?s=20
Braden Lenzy tweet makes it sound like it’s happening.
https://twitter.com/blspeedy21/status/1465493135476375554?s=20
Bryan Driskell at Irish Breakdown reporting on his Youtube/podcast that he has sources on ND’s side confirming that this is happening, which is the most definitive I’ve seen anyone on the ND beat.
Where did you see that kind of money being floated though? Haven’t seen anything about salary?
There are a lot of people saying $100 million over 7 on Twitter, but not verified.
Here’s $100 million over 7 years per IB: https://www.si.com/college/notredame/football/notre-dame-football-brian-kelly-to-leave-to-for-lsu
Here’s $100 million per unverified ND players:
https://twitter.com/CoachHuyge/status/1465492588165799940?s=20
I appreciate Lenzy’s tweet. I hope a lot of players feel that way.
Sampson’s Twitter is saying that “sources indicate there will be some momentum among decision-makers at the University to elevate Marcus Freeman”
https://twitter.com/PeteSampson_/status/1465499252222689284?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet
THis would be my preference too FWIW haha. I mean I know, the old adage new head coaches at ND blah blah blah, but seriously my Dad was saying this 20 years ago, and god love him, but I think its old wisdom. Just look at Day or Riley or Smart of Dabo. I mean honestly, I follow college football moderately well, I’d never heard the name Ryan Day before they hired him, and never had a second thought about Lincoln Riley or Dabo Swinney before they were HCs. Smart? Yes. But the point is they are all recruiters who inherited stable high level programs. Smart is right, the team with the best players wins.
I think they have to take a chance on Freeman. The game is recruiting now and I think he also has the rest of it, seems sharp, learned for others along the way. Fickell or whoever will always be there if necessary.