Welcome back to the 18Stripes G5 Top 10. We hit the final weekend of the regular season. While some teams seemed to feast on the opportunity to end their seasons strong, some got their tryptophan later than usual, suffering some bad losses. Let’s dive into it.

Also Considered: Utah State, Air Force, Western Kentucky, Northern Illinois, SMU

Week 13 Recap

How Do You Solve a Problem Like BYU?

The BYU Cougars defeated USC in the final Group of 5 regular season game of the 2021 season on Saturday night. They finished their regular season 10-2, with losses at Baylor (not bad) and home vs Boise State (not ideal). They have a crucial win over potential Pac-12 Champ (and Rose Bowl participant) Utah. Doing some light projection of the CFP Rankings for Tuesday night, they will probably be around the low teens, around the same area as Iowa.

It is worth noting that the team from Provo is not eligible for the Group of 5 spot (we’ll dive into that later) in the New Year’s Six, which means an at-large is the only way to get in. The SEC and Big 12 will get berths in the Sugar Bowl, the Rose Bowl will get B1G and P12 representatives. The ACC Champ and Group of 5 Champ will get guaranteed spots. The Orange and Cotton Bowls have the CFP. That leaves at a minimum 2 spots for at-large, with it looking more likely as 3 spots for the rest of the bowls. 

So, can BYU jump into the New Year’s Six? The first thing I think they need is Utah beating Oregon on Friday. BYU seems to have the mind of the committee due to their wins over the Pac-12, with Utah the crown jewel of that resume. Then, they need Cincinnati to make the playoff. If Houston wins, either them or San Diego State takes the G5 spot and Cincinnati probably takes an at-large bid. They also need Michigan to win and knock out Iowa from their tier of teams. This gives Ohio State the probable Rose Bowl bid against Utah.

Rounding out the playoff, BYU probably needs Alabama to beat Georgia, ensuring those two teams make the playoff as well. That would mean Ole Miss takes the Sugar Bowl spot and doesn’t eat an at-large bid from the Cougars. Then, there’s the Big 12 Problem. I wavered back and forth on which result would help BYU more. I settled on Baylor beating Oklahoma State, giving the Bears probably the 6 spot in the playoff rankings and a Sugar Bowl bid taking on Ole Miss.

Notre Dame, in the scenario I’ve dictated above, seems to be slotted in the 5 spot and will grab the first at-large. With Cincinnati in the playoff, Fiesta probably takes our Irish. It then comes down to Oklahoma State, Oklahoma, Michigan State, and BYU. It’s a tough mountain to climb for BYU, but something I’m not sure isn’t our of their grasp as we barrel towards the season’s conclusion.

Movers and Shakers

Oh UTSA, what on Earth happened? The Roadrunners turned the ball over three times in the first half to North Texas, with the Mean Green scoring on each of those drives. UTSA QB Frank Harris was seemingly benched in the second quarter due to poor play. UTSA couldn’t recover from these two setbacks in a 45-23 demolition in their regular season finale. UTSA’s small dreams for a NY6 bowl are dashed with the loss, but still have the C-USA Championship to play for on Friday.

Earlier in the week, Northern Illinois suffered a similar hangover from their conference championship ways. The Huskies suffered a slow start in their home finale against Western Michigan as the Broncos ran away with a 42-21 victory. Rocky Lombardi being out turned out to be the difference as the Huskies could not get any offensive momentum through the air. The Broncos, on the other hand, found their success primarily through the air. WR Skyy Moore outscored the entire NIU team with 12 catches for 206 yards and 4 TDs, all in the middle quarters.

That leaves a spot open in our top ten. I finally looked upon the fellows in West Point running their triple option. Army has had an interesting season. Every time they’ve bubbled up to potentially making a move into the Top Ten, they fall to one of their better opponents. They had losses to Wisconsin and Wake Forest in which they hung for at least three quarters. Today, against the Fighting Malik Willis’, the Cadets put together a dominant four quarter performance. Army took a 24-3 lead at the half and never looked back. The Black Knights’ overall resume may not be sparkling on paper, but they do have wins over Western Kentucky, Georgia State, and Air Force, all of whom are solid G5 schools. That is enough to get them into the Top Ten for this week.

Top Teams Wraparound

Despite a sleepy early kickoff, San Diego State punched their spot into the Mountain West Championship Game with a 27-16 victory over Boise State. The Aztecs looked to be on the ropes most of the first half, down 16-3 at one point. However, in a nine minute stage of game time, the Aztecs scored 24 points. The defense clamped down on the Broncos, making the fourth quarter a breeze for SDSU. Utah State was the primary beneficiary of the Boise State loss, as they cruised to a 35-10 victory over New Mexico. The Aggies win their first Mountain Division title.

Cincinnati officially clinched their home stadium with an easy 35-13 win over East Carolina. Houston took care of UConn 45-17. Louisiana, Coastal Carolina, and App State all took care of business in their games against UL-Monroe, Georgia Southern, and South Alabama respectively. Finally, on Thanksgiving afternoon, Fresno State made quick work on the San Jose State Spartans (who will miss a bowl a year after winning the conference).

Week 14 Preview

Conference Championship Weekend

With this week being five championship games, I decided to lay it all out for you all. I’ve put the two teams side by side, their advanced numbers (see Brendan’s post for any potential questions about SP+ and FPI) and their overall resumes, with the big question; Who will take the New Year’s Six Spot? We’re going to go through these games in order of kickoff so let’s dive into the one game on Friday.

If last week’s games didn’t happen, I’d imagine this game would be a) much more in favor of UTSA and b) make WKU a trendy upset pick. These two teams played in a shootout earlier in the year and it really set the tone for both teams. It was the game that showed UTSA wasn’t a flash in the pan for me personally, and it was the last loss Western Kentucky has had coming into this rematch. I am hopeful for UTSA’s sake that Frank Harris returns to form and leaves his poor play in the rain in Denton. Nonetheless, this game unfortunately does not have any merits in the NY6 race, but could be a fun, high scoring alternative to the Pac-12 Championship for those interested.

Kent State gave Northern Illinois its first loss in conference play in 2021 in early November. They used their offense to catch fire both in that game, but down the stretch and help knock off Miami (OH) and get to this game. The attempted two point conversion at the end by Miami HC Chuck Martin seemed like a white flag to the offense and ended the game ASAP. However, Dustin Crum and the Golden Flashes come to Detroit to try and win their first Conference Championship. NIU hopes to have Rocky Lombardi back for this game, and if he is, I’d hope that this game is a repeat of their 2012 classic (which jumpstarted the 2013 Jordan Lynch/NIU campaign).

This potentially has some NY6 potential with San Diego State potentially being the second highest ranked G5 team coming into the Championship Weekend. Utah State has used their offense to carry them under new HC Blake Anderson. This will be their biggest test thus far, as the SDSU defense continues to impress. The interesting thing to note is which QB will be under center for the Aztecs. Lucas Johnson was benched for his ineffectiveness and Jordan Brookshire, who Johnson replaced midway through the season, took over and led the offensive spark. If HC Brady Hoke can figure out the question at QB, I think SDSU cruises and plays the waiting game.

Louisiana may be a potential contender for the G5 spot if they are ranked on Tuesday. Nonetheless, I am personally excited for this rematch of their October contest. Louisiana used this to legitimize their disappointing campaign, which saw them show off their talent in blowout wins down the stretch highlighted by the Liberty win. App State used the loss to shock Coastal Carolina and upend the potential 2020 “rematch.” The Mountaineers have been quietly destroying teams after the Louisiana game and it should be interesting to see if they can learn from their mistakes in their first matchup in Lafayette.

Finally, we have reached the Main Event of G5 Championships. Cincinnati, with a potential glass ceiling shattering spot in the CFP on the line, will host a 11-1 Houston team that hasn’t lost since Labor Day. Granted, Houston has had a little bit of an easier path to get there. Looking at their highest common opponent SMU, Cincinnati made quick work of the Mustangs, while the Cougs needed a kickoff return to get the win. I think this game will be defined early on. If Houston’s defense, which has shut down teams all season, can get some mistakes out of Ridder, I think HC Dana Holgorson and his offense can make them pay. If Cincinnati quickly gets up two scores, it might be time to switch channels and wonder how the committee will screw over the Bearcats to a Fiesta Bowl berth.

That’s all I have for you all today. Hope you all enjoyed the comfortable end of the Notre Dame season and enjoy all of the games this weekend! We’ll be back next week with an Army-Navy preview and a fun thought exercise on bowls for G5 teams.