I’m going to be real. By mid-season these top 20 posts can become a drag when we’re piecing together our own list while the AP, Coach’s Poll, and eventually the playoff committee are all converging on their favored teams. But for the pre-season, with the whole season ahead of us and National Championship dreams in our eyes, this is the best time of the year for rankings!

Last year’s pre-season rankings were ruled by the introduction of the 12-team playoff and things went pretty, pretty good for the Irish on that front. We got flush with cash from hosting a night playoff game and then added more to the university spoils with a run to the natty. While the powers-that-be discuss a change to a 16-team format things will stay mostly the same as last year for this 2025 campaign.

The biggest change now being the top 4 seeds, regardless of conference championship status, get the first round bye. After one season, Notre Dame is back to being able to get a first round bye.

Ranked to Unranked from 2024:

Before we move on, a quick look back at our top 20 pre-season poll from a year ago. Our top four of Georgia, Oregon, Texas, and Notre Dame all did their part and backed up these lofty rankings. These teams finished 2nd (Notre Dame), 3rd (Oregon), 4th (Texas), and 6th (Georgia).

Missouri 5th felt like a miss even though they went 10-3. It was a really soft 10-win season and they finished outside the top 20 in the final AP Poll. They are way off the radar for 2025.

Ohio State (6th) won it all. Other programs like Ole Miss (10th), Tennessee (16th), and Clemson (20th) did appropriately well. Penn State (17th) overachieved, I’ll admit.

However, we had some big time LAUGHERS in the miss category looking back at these 2024 rankings:

• #8 Florida State goes 2-10 with one of their worst seasons ever!
• #9 Kansas couldn’t get it together with expectations and went 5-7!
• #11 USC lost 6 games and couldn’t be bothered for most of 2024!
• #12 Oklahoma State my goodness I forgot about this ranking, they lost their final 9 games!
• #14 Arizona went 4-8 and didn’t do anything all year!
• #15 Oklahoma lost 7 games and Skeletor is on the hot seat!
• #19 Utah is usually a dependable team but nope, not in 2024, they lost 7 games in the Big 12!

To be clear, this is 100% all of those teams faults and I share no responsibility for ranking them this high. They betrayed us all. Now, let’s get to the new 2025 pre-season picks that we know are going to be spot on when December comes around.

18 Stripes Top 20 Poll

*Indicates week 0 game.

Rankings Explainer

My thought process every pre-season is usually: Do you have a good team with talented players in key positions? Do you have any red flags like an unproven coach? How friendly or unfriendly is your schedule? As such, my ranking is kind of a prediction for the end of the regular season. My playoff predictions will come in a separate article.

Six of these top 9 teams face each other in Week 1 so some losses are coming early to someone real soon.

I kept searching for reasons to take Texas out of the no. 1 spot and ultimately didn’t pull the trigger. They did bring in some really good transfers but aren’t exactly reloading from 2024 and have to replace plenty of key players. Of course, everyone is betting on Manning being the real deal.

My brain says Ohio State is well positioned and they even get to host Texas in one of, if not the biggest, games of the regular season. But, I extremely do not trust Matt Patricia as their new defensive coordinator.

Clemson actually supplemented with transfers this off-season!

I’ve seen Clemson as high as no. 2 in pre-season rankings (like here!) across the country and closer to 10th elsewhere. If Klubnik continues to improve they shouldn’t lose 2 regular season games and I think they are being slept on by many. They’re 6th in the recent Coach’s Poll which is fair but I have them higher.

I like Alabama to have a nice bounce back season and benefit from a more stable and less chaotic quarterback situation.

I don’t think there’s a serious National Championship contender past 8th ranked Georgia. I don’t see this as a hot take. Maybe Miami or Oregon can make a case.

Just on the Outside

Oklahoma
Michigan
Texas Tech
Ole Miss
Florida
Indiana
BYU
Nebraska
Iowa State
Baylor

You’ll find many of these teams among various Top 25 pre-season polls. Michigan (14th), Ole Miss (15th), Florida (17th), and Indiana (19th) all were inside the latest Coach’s Poll top 20.

The Sooners have a lot to prove and as we’ll get to below their schedule does them no favors. Michigan is still living off 2023. They have nowhere to go but up with their passing game but I’m expecting a sizable step back on defense. Texas Tech is jumping up as a program through NIL and a hot underdog pick this year. Ole Miss and Florida are clear 2nd tier (or 3rd tier depending on how you rate the top) in the SEC. I don’t think lightning will strike twice for Indiana. BYU lost their quarterback this summer. I’m sick of Nebraska pre-season hype. Iowa State following up 11 wins with something a lot less feels right to me.

Texas Tech hype out of nowhere. 

Baylor is a team to watch for 2025, though. They have tons of good players coming back, an extremely friendly 2nd half schedule, and will likely be moving up the Big 12 standings slowly but surely in November. However, they have a tough start with Auburn and Arizona State coming to Waco, plus a visit to SMU, all within the first 4 weeks of the season. They could fall off the radar early and come back into the picture later this fall.

How Many Losses for the National Championship Participants?

This probably won’t be a section we’ll need to discuss next year but in the early days of the playoffs it’s mildly interesting. Last year for this article I wondered if the title game participants would have more or less than a combined 2.5 losses going into the National Championship. We hit the over with the Irish losing to Northern Illinois then ripping off 13 straight wins while Ohio State survived close losses to Oregon and Michigan on their way to a ring.

There are decent odds one of Texas or Ohio State make it to the National Championship this year and with them playing each other right away I’d say 2.5 combined losses is a safe bet again.

G5 to Watch

Navy

I was looking over G5 teams and my goodness nearly every top contender across the nation had their rosters plundered and need to replace so many players. I’d guesstimate that the top 15 G5 teams heading into 2025 are replacing 80% of the starters from a year ago–it really looks that bad.

With that in mind, everyone having Boise State as the heavy favorite for the best G5 team makes sense. Yes, they lose Heisman candidate Ashton Jeanty but they have quarterback Maddux Madsen coming back along with 12 other starters on the roster. The schedule–other than the trip to Notre Dame–is entirely manageable with the Mountain West looking pretty dismal as league competition.

Navy could win the AAC and make the playoffs. 

I’m throwing Navy out there for a few reasons. The other academies look to be taking a big step back in 2025, so that’s a potential easy Commander-In-Chief’s Trophy for the Middies. Two, they bring back the bulk of their offense from a unit that improved a lot last year. Three, the schedule sets up pretty well as the AAC ain’t what it used to be. Of course, they face the Irish.

Bet the Over?

Pittsburgh: 6.5 wins

Virginia Tech (o/u 8.5 wins) was my pick here last year and they disappointed in a big way with 7 losses. I ranked Pittsburgh in today’s pre-season poll and I think the country is really not paying enough attention to the Panthers. They lost their las 6 games last year but quarterback Eli Holstein was pretty good when healthy, plus they are bringing back tons of players from a roster that started 6-0 in 2024.

Nard Dog has the USA sleeping on the Panthers. 

As always, schedule also plays a part. They miss Clemson and SMU at the top of the ACC. Their Miami, Louisville, and Notre Dame games are all in the friendly confines of Acrisure Stadium aka Heinz Field. FanDuel setting their over/under at 6.5 wins seems criminally low to me. I think even a 7-win season would be disappointing for Pitt. I don’t trust Pat Narduzzi that much, but I’ll trust him enough for 2025.

Bet the Under?

Michigan: 9.5 wins

Last year I had Michigan at 8.5 wins pleading with our readers to take the under and I’m giddy to say…NAILED IT. They’ve lost so much talent to the NFL over the last 2 years (12 players overall within the top 3 rounds for the 2024-25 NFL Drafts), have a questionably effective head coach, are breaking in a new offensive coordinator, might start a true freshman at quarterback, and somehow FanDuel raised their win total from last year!

Nah.

Much of that projection could be schedule related. There are road trips to Oklahoma, Nebraska, and USC in the first 6 weeks where we patiently hope for a 0-3 record from Michigan and news that players want to transfer out immediately. Outside of the finale versus Ohio State the finish from mid-October is insanely easy, though. Even at 9-3 this would not be a very impressive record and should keep the Wolverines outside playoff contention.

Hardest Schedule

Florida

Oklahoma has the toughest 2nd half schedules I’ve ever seen (vs. Texas, at South Carolina, vs. Ole Miss, at Tennessee, at Alabama, vs. Missouri, vs. LSU) but if you believe Michigan won’t be very good (Wolverines visit Norman on September 6th) the Sooners have a pretty manageable early season schedule. That should at least give OU some breathing room to begin 2025.

The Gators schedule needs a break. 

I’m keeping Florida in this spot from last year. The Gators start off easy (Long Island & USF visit the Swamp) and then face a brutal stretch from mid-September with road games against LSU, Miami, A&M, Kentucky, and Ole Miss plus home dates against Texas, Tennessee, and Florida State with the annual neutral site rivalry game with Georgia. If the Seminoles are back to respectability this has to be the toughest schedule.

Easiest Schedule

Wake Forest

You can take your pick from the Demon Deacons or even Virginia or Maryland. All three have especially stinky schedules and will barely be tested. You look at these schedules and it’s like some other teams in the SEC are playing a different sport. Also, special consideration for a weak schedule needs to be given to BYU who gets FCS Portland State with Stanford and East Carolina out of conference and misses Arizona State, Kansas State, Iowa State, and Baylor (4 out of the consensus pre-season top 5 teams in the Big 12, excluding the Cougars themselves) in league play. Perhaps even with a new quarterback they’ll win 10 games anyway.

However, my pick for 2025 is Wake Forest:

Non-League Games: vs. Kennesaw State, vs. Western Carolina, at Oregon State, vs. Delaware
Home Games: NC State, Georgia Tech, SMU, North Carolina
Away Games: Virginia Tech, Florida State, Virginia, Duke

A trip to Corvallis is mildly interesting from a forgettable out of conference schedule. Wake also misses Clemson, Miami, Louisville, and Pittsburgh within the ACC which leaves their toughest overall games in 2025 against SMU, Georgia Tech, and I guess Florida State. Maybe Duke or NC State, just the fact that we’re having this discussion about their schedule, right? First-year head coach Jake Dickert could go 6-6 this year and be ranked like 107th overall by FEI with this schedule.